GunnerBill

33-14

Yes. I think ge played well vs the run. If anything he was a little less impressive in coverage than my first instinct. But I still think he played a decent game. Around him was a ***** show. Yea that is completely fair. McDermott doesn't get a pass for poor offensive plans two of the last 3 weeks. He signs off on them.

I don't disgaree with that. But Bernard, certainly in the run game, has not been the issue.

Yea I completely get it. Our run D hasn't been good. But on film it is pretty clearly not a Bernard issue. And I say this as someone who started week 1 saying he would be a liability. I think the defensive issues Sunday were about personnel. I think our offensive gameplan was garbage. I am not even sure it was that much about them. It was about us. We majorly underperformed across the board.

It was based mainly on an upgraded offensive line. They didn't look that upgraded this past week, but I put that down to poor schedule planning and the jetlag. I'll get worried about the OL if we start to see repeats of last week.

He was playing well before it. He played hurt a lot last year and he was still playing better than the pure production numbers. At some point that always evens out.

And we ended up with a PS defensive tackle at the other edge spot opposite AJE in the 4th quarter on Sunday because Floyd and Jonathan had various nicks in the game. Edge depth matters.

Ed Oliver was a BEAST in college. Thinking otherwise means you never watched him. The level of competition point is fair, Groot played in the SEC but Ed was dominant against his competition. While I recognise his career has had some inconsistency - good as a rookie, disappointing but playing out of position as a 2nd year player, up and down year 3.... he was very consistent when he was healthy last year though. Since the start of last season whenever Ed Oliver has been healthy he has been a game wrecker. By the end of last season he was held together by sticky tape. I don't think that is hedging I think it is being adult about it and recognising there are a range of possible outcomes. If you want a prediction - fine - then so long as he stays healthy I think by the end of the year Ed O will be right on the cusp and the conversation will be "he has had an elite season but is one season enough to say he is an elite player?" and Groot I think will have the best production numbers of his career in terms of pressures and sacks but won't be in the elite level conversation just yet. No - Milano and White. And we didn't disagree at all on Milano pre-season. You keep accusing me of being one of the "linebacker will be alright" crowd I wasn't. I was in the "MLB is a liability on this team" crowd. I'm just big enough to say through 5 games Bernard has absolutely proved me wrong. And even on Sunday after Milano went down he was very good - ESPECIALLY against the run. I think WILL linebacker is very likely a weakness on this team now unless Williams can really get going quickly. Because Beane's draft record is better than average overall. Not many busts in 6 drafts. Not enough elite players though, on that we agree. You have to factor in stars, but drafting isn't only about stars. It is about having enough guys that can be solid starters in the NFL and enough people who can play roles to fill out your roster and he has been above average at finding both of those. A tick below in finding stars. I am sticking to that but that isn't the only way to judge a GM. Mahomes, Jones, Kelce (all drafted by Dorsey, though Mahomes was Veach in all but name) Humphrey and Joe Thuney who they signed as a FA. Carter has been very good but again I'm not calling a player elite based on 5 games. I think he is a stud though and by the end of the year we may well be talking about him as elite. Smith is a good WR2. He is really a 1B. But the best receiver on that team, as the best receiver on this team, came via trade. AJ Brown is elite. And they did not build their team through the draft basically AT ALL. Higgins like Smith is a 1B. I was a bit fan of him coming out. He's the guy I'd have taken if we didn't trade for Diggs. I think he will prove a good #1 somewhere next year but I don't think he is elite. When I watch Brock Purdy I don't see an elite QB. I think he is good, but at the moment I think the elite is Kyle's offense not Brock Purdy. Beane could have drafted elite players outside round 1. No argument there. His second round picks in particular haven't been great. I mean all of them haven't. I gave you the numbers. Some have, some haven't. But it is by 1 or 2 players. Beane needs another major hit soon though. I completely agree. I think what this comes down to is you'd be much more trigger happy in terms of firings than I would. That is your prerogative. I do think there is some level of pressure on Beane to come up with more true elite difference makers. Stef, Matt and Tre are all in their late 20s. Tre is now off a second bad injury. Matt is going to be coming off one too. He needs an Ed Oliver, Greg Rousseau, AJ Epenesa, Dalton Kincaid, James Cook, O'Cyrus Torrence, Terell Bernard to really hit. Otherwise in 2/3 years we might be looking and saying this team is Josh and not much else.

Yea absolutely fair. The light for AJE went on mid 3rd season althought the Bills deserve some responsibility for that in that his first season was lost to a body transformation and then an adjustment to his play style. Equally they are asking Elam to basically change his game to fit their scheme. Boogie Basham meanwhile is bad at football.

In fairness to them Bernard did play well on Sunday even with the utter chaos around him. But on any play where the Jags were able to neutralise him the rest was a mess. Particularly our outside contain. Was a good plan from Jacksonville. They knew we were thin on the edge and down to backup corners outside and they called their run game accordingly. Does happen to play to ETN's strengths as well.

Cover 1 are good at what they do. But they are homers.

They brought better depth in behind them, that is spot on. But they were trusting their vet guys to start and it was a risk. Both 32 and coming off significant surgery. I don't think they are total liabilities by any means but they are not the ultimate get out of jail free card they have been at times in the past to bail the Bills out. They have lost a step and those who were against bringing them back have legitimate arguments to say that was a mistake. I actually don't think bringing Poyer back was plan A. I think both parties expected him to be gone. But his market wasn't as hot as he expected and it got down to a number the Bills could live with. It is to all extents and purposes a 1 year deal and they will look for a long term answer next spring. Agree with your general take on defensive performance.

He ended up with two. The Bills only earned one. He had to trade up twice to turn the Allen pick into a top 10 pick.

Yea the rest of the offense was bad, all around. Worst game the OL had played, dropped passes.... but the gameplan was worst of all. I saw Dorsey resolutely try and use the plan that worked v Miami against a team defending us in a *very* different way.

Yes. I don't know how much clearer I could be on that. Do I think Ed and Groot can continue at this pace? Yes I think they can - note CAN and not WILL. It is possible. Why? Because they have the talent to do it. I think Ed Oliver's raw productions numbers have undervalued his performance the past two years and have consistently said so on here. When the underlying analytics are as strong as they were eventually the numbers will follow. I also think last year he was dominant when healthy and less dominant when playing hurt. I don't see this as a sudden improvement - I see it as following on from that healthy spell he had in the middle of last season - particularly that Minnesota, Cleveland, Detroit run. Groot I think there is a bit of a lower ceiling on, but he is a very high floor player and if he can hit his ceiling throughout the rest of the year he is certainly capable of being in the conversation too. An yes, if they maintain their play level then we still have the chance to go into the playoffs with the minimum 4 elite level guys you need. I said that in my very first post on in this discussion. We have Josh, Stef, Von who is a question mark coming back and Ed and Groot who are the two who could possibly step up into that conversation. If two of the three defensive guys were to play at that proper elite level then yes the Bills can still win a Superbowl. But two guys who have proven themselves capable of that top end consistency are gone for the year. So the chances are reduced because you are now relying on less proven commodities. I don't know why you needed to ask that my views on it are completely clear in previous posts. Yes. He has drafted a lot of starters and not enough elite difference makers. That is my take on Brandon Beane. It has been since before you turned up here. And yes, I'd give him the chance of the current guys and one more draft class a year of being on the field before I'd really consider moving on. I do think there is pressure on him to unearth a true difference maker, but equally he is good at his job. I wouldn't give someone who is bad at their job 8 years but Beane isn't bad at his job. He is good at it, but could still be better. The overall talent of this roster is top half dozen or so in the NFL but is probably a bit thicker in the middle and thinner at either end. On draft performance I have referenced to you before the work @JGMcD2's work on this on this very forum. Then there is PFF (this was up to an including 2021) and ESPN (up to 2022 but going back as far as 2012.... though it breaks down for each year). They are all trying to do the same thing... find a way of putting a value on draft performance. But the overriding theme is they all consistently have the Bills as pretty strong performers. 2017 (which totally agreed was McDermott, not Beane) and 2018 are their two best drafts - White, Dawkins, Milano, Allen, Johnson have been 5 cornerstones just from two classes. As for counts for the teams you mention between 18 and 22 I have: Chiefs - 1 (Creed Humphrey) Eagles - 2 (Jalen Hurts [some might dispute, I don't] and Jordan Maitala) Rams - 0 Bengals - 3 (Jessie Bates, Joe Burrow, Ja'marr Chase) 49ers - 3 (Deebo Samuel, Nick Bosa and Fred Warner) And what do the final two on that list have in common? Multiple top 10 picks in that time. So while I think Beane is at the lower end he isn't a million miles below his competitors.

But the central defender (and I have played that position plenty ) normally has the momentum advantage and is timing it up to attack the ball and the forward is the one with the standing start. Diggs wasn't quite a standing start but he did not have the momentum advantage. Almost always in aerial duels in soccer it is momentum and timing that wins the day.

The DB's momentum wasn't going away though? He didn't break his stride at all.

Grouped these together because they are, essentially, the same question. I have been abundantly clear multiple times that I think the answer is he hasn't (well, Tyler Bass, but I don't count kickers). I think there are two guys though on the roster that he has drafted (excluding rookies for now) who could still make it to that category and who have always had the talent to do so - Ed Oliver and Greg Rousseau. Ed would be a 1st team all pro this year based on the first 5 weeks, no question about it. Groot would get all pro votes. I think his future reputation depends as much on those guys delivering on their potential as it does on guys he hasn't picked yet. This isn't straightforward because a) there is more to being a General Manager than drafting players - though no question it is a critical part of the job and b) because what Beane drafts very few of is outright busts. Elam looks like his first day 1 bust. Cody Ford was a day 2 bust. But he has avoided them for the most part. He drafts a lot of guys that can play and can be starters in the NFL. When compared to his peers that means he grades out pretty well overall... but has it been a factor in us being near and yet so far in terms of a championship? Yea it has. Would I fire him now? No I wouldn't. But then I am a stability guy and a patience guy. I think if in two years we are still saying after the 2023 class and a year of the 2024 class "man he hasn't found an elite player except Josh" then you have to either move him on or clear house below him and bring in a new scouting structure.

Pass on both of them.

I have never played wide receiver. I am open to someone explaining why it is wrong. But just based on the basic laws of physics it is clear to me the DB had far more momentum with which to propel himself into the air than Diggs.

Hmm. His usage was limited mainly by the fact he was a backup through his own failings early in his career here. But there is no doubt somewhere down the stretch last year the light came on for AJE. 4 of his 6.5 sacks and 8 of his 14 pressures in 2022 came in his final 7 games and he has carried that form on so far this year. The underlying stats tell a similar story. His pass rush win rate was pedestrian the first half of last year then took a jump.

The kid has talent. Rare explosion. He is still raw, but you can see the improvement on the field compared to his limited snaps last year. He is very much someone who could slip into a rotational end role. He is averaging a staggeringly good pass rush win rate of almost 20%. Now he is being used primarily in favourable rush situations so likely that is inflated somewhat and as a full time 2nd string DE rather than the 5th guy who they only use to rush the passer it would even out somewhat but even so it is very high.

There as definitely been a defensive adjustment league wide. These things always go in cycles.

Poona and Settle are on the roster as backup 1T. They will get first dibs on the job.

currently doing a stint on UK TV covering the NFL on Sundays.