GunnerBill

I was having a conversation with @JerseyBills who was saying he was one of the best LBers in the game in Madden 4 years ago. I was replying to him explaining his career trajectory. You decided for reasons unknown to insert yourself into the conversation to suggest that I was somehow misleading him (I wasn't) with the 4th team in 4 years. If your original point was "yea it's 4 in 4 years but that is not that uncommon for dust settles FAs like this to fill out the backend of rosters" the conversation would have ended there. Because you are right on that. Instead you claimed I was trying to "make it sound more dramatic." Which I wasn't. I was just presenting a fact. At no stage did I not accept it was common. It is. It is also uncommon for those guys to make significant impacts for their teams. Both are true.

I agree. I like this actually as a punt. But nobody should be under any illusions that is what it is. It is a punt on someone with some physical talent who for reasons other than height, speed, athelticism is in the last chance saloon with his NFL career

Okay so my criteria for my choices is: 1. I am only considering their performance in Buffalo not their overall NFL career. 2. They can not have played a playoff game as a Bill. Which leaves me with a choice of Jason Peters and Mario Williams. Reason? I think they were the two guys that spring to mind as having periods of elite performance in their Bills run and at premium positions too. I wanted to pick a receiver and thought about Lee Evans but he was just a lesser player than Mario and Peters. EDITED: I forgot Peters somehow. Gilmore was originally my 2nd choice. He'd be third for me.

You sum exactly my point with Carter (who I don't dislike, just think took him earlier than I would). There was a run a DTs. They needed a DT and therefore their choice at the end of the 3rd round was about filling that gap. That is exactly what I think happened, potentially above and beyond board value. Especially as they wanted a DT last year too and didn't get one and it has left them in a bit of a hole with Ed basically the only DT on the roster beyond the immediate short term. On Davis he was my R6. I had a pretty clear top 5 - four of whom went day 2 and Wright who the Dolphins gave up a 2025 3rd for early on day 3. Davis is a good back and he was my best of the rest. Again they had a big hole behind Cook. It was a need. But is still a low premium position. Cook is still more talented. He is going to be RB1. So it is a 4th rounder for someone who at least the next two years is a backup running back.

Where have I not accepted that?

No I didn't. I spoke facts and you took offence for some unknown reason. I like Deion. But its his 4th team in 4 years.

When I read this I thought "whoa that's a bit bold for what would have been a rookie 5th rounder." And then I thought about it and I think you are right. Which kinda tells its own story. It isn't about Malik. It is about the fact that this WR corps by any measure is missing a fair few elements that you'd like to have.

He wanted to be in Miami 5 days before a playoff game in New York back in the day if my memory serves 🤣

He was traded from the Falcons. The Browns essentially hacked a year off his contract and yes, with the Panthers it was a 1 year deal. Allowed to leave in that it was three different situations in the three different places. I was trying to find a form of words that covers them all. 4th team in 4 years. They are the facts.

Yea he isn't a difference maker anymore. But as a complimentary player he is still a legit NFL starting wide receiver.

Yea the lack of top end talent has been the main thing stopping them going further IMO. Needing someone to make a play for them at the critical moment. Those KC games come down to a play here and there. They have every single time since the AFCCG where we were well beaten and still short of their level. Every game against them since has come down to a couple of plays. And while we have made them in the regular season we haven't in the post season and Kelce, Hill (before he left) and Jones have. If this ends up being something of a hole filling meat and potatoes draft that allows them to use the capital they have built next year to get a difference maker or two that will be one thing. But it felt very hole filly, quite need driven and there remain questions about our ability to find game changers.

I agree the DE value did drop off. I think most of the next tier of edge guys were 3-4 OLBs not base DEs. I actually like Solomon at the value they took him. I was not arguing for double dip at receiver just for the sake of arguing it. I am arguing it because I think the value there was better than a rotational DT (you are entitled to like Carter better than I do but I still disagree) there was better value at OT. There was better value at corner. These are premium spots and we took the low hanging fruit at backup DT and backup RB because we had immediate holes there. It's that type of need based drafting that get you in trouble in the long run. He has been allowed to leave by the Falcons, Browns and Panthers. It is not exactly the Chiefs, 49ers and Cowboys. How many guys with that resume make a difference in the NFL week to week? And I loved Deion Jones coming out. But it is a reality that he isn't that guy now.

You are right that our backup DTs last year sucked. I said they would when we wasted money signing them. But when we have holes at premium spots backup DT didn't seem super value (and I am not high on Carter). Similarly at backup RB I do like Davis just isn't great value. If you were spending a 4th on a first string running back fair enough. For a second string short yardage back that to me isn't good asset allocation. In six drafts it is a second, two thirds and a fourth on running backs. The most devalued position on the football field. On receiving room my argument is absolutely lack of proven production equates to bottom three. Sure Coleman could end up a stud rookie. Sure Samuel could have a career year (if he stays healthy I think that is very likely actually), sure Kincaid thrown in adds a dimension. But at the same time do I think it is better than the 2022 receiving room? No. In 2022 they had an elite player. That to me matters more than anything else. Elite players win. Nobody in this group is approaching that. As for cap - the $10m we having coming off is needed for our draft class and BEFORE we sign a single draftee of 2024 we have only $5m in space (not $15m) against the projected cap for 2025. Of course the cap could be higher. It was a bit this year. But that isn't a great basis on which to be planning. Don't get me wrong I am not a negative nelly. I think this Bills team will still win 10 or 11 games. I think the offensive line could end up as a sneaky strength. I am less bothered about the Morse loss than a lot of people. I think Ed Oliver will have another good year and with Milano, Bernard and Taron at the second level we will be good there too. And Cook, Shakir, Kincaid, Brown etc can all take another step. But there are reasons - wide receiver, edge, safety - to believe this team will have some issues in 2024. I think it is a reload season.

Don't mind any of these guys actually as guys to compete for the backend jobs in those rooms. Smoot is the one I give the best chance of making the roster. But I see the sense in all 3 moves.

I have cut him slack. I think the potential he has is in the "plus" column for him. I think physically there is more to come and there is room for some coaching on the nuances. I recognise that in my initial evaluation summary of him above.

I think when they got down to their best two options being Dodson and Klein you HAD to put Klein at Mike. He couldn't have played will. His horizontal movement was never his strength even when he was a full time NFL player. The alternative, much discussed in that KC buildup week, was Dodson at Mike and Williams at Will which they did try a bit second half. And I think the fact was they just didn't trust Williams. When he came in against Pittsburgh he kept lining up incorrectly. I think that you are probably right though that Morrow is their preferred MLB reserve for 2024.

I take a different view on the value of the picks the Bills made in the mid rounds. I am not super high on Carter as a player, I do like Davis a fair bit but I'm not sure I agree with you on the importance of a rotational DT and a short yardage back as difference making moves for this team in 2024. Equally I do think our WR room is bottom 3. In terms of PROVEN production at the NFL level we have Samuel and his circa 550 yards per season average over his 6 healthy seasons, Mack Hollins a career backup and half a season of Khalil Shakir. that is not a lot of proven production. Then we have some question marks. I think it is pretty thin. Where I agree with you is on the value of offensive tackle.

I don't agree with all of this but I do have sympathy with the first para. Personally I'm still of the view at top tier LT is as valuable as any receiver. What I do think is there are fewer top tier LTs than there are elite level WR talents and that is just a product of the college game and the way it is being played, but I'm of the view that a bad blindside tackle is one of the easiest ways to lose a football game. I'd add the rebuild of the Lions to your list of tackle savvy teams. They have the best tackle duo in football and I personally think Decker and Sewell are more important to that offense than St Brown.

His first five seasons in the NFL 2016-2021 he was one of the best LBs in football. Zero doubt. It was much commented on at the time in the Tremaine Edmunds debates but at the time there was definitely an inbalance in LB talent that skewed towards the NFC. He had some injuries never quite seemed to recover some of his speed and his zest after that. I am surprised he isn't older to be honest. But this is his 4th team in 4 years for a reason. He isn't quite the guy he used to be.

They didn't call Klein because they didn't have faith in Dodson. Dodson had been starting at WILL for like 10 weeks while Klein was on the couch. They signed Klein back after Dodson himself got hurt and they were down to Bernard (who then also proceeded to get hurt), Williams (rookie who had struggled) and Spector (never played at linebacker in meaningful NFL games before). They were totally comfortable with Dodson. It was Williams as next man up after the next man up who they were not comfortable with and the injury to Dodson is what brought Klein back. I am 100% confident if the Bills could have got Dodson back for what Morrow signed for (which was where I got the $1.5m-$2m range - what Morrow is making this year vs what Dodson did last) then Dodson would still be here. There is zero doubt in my mind on that. I agree with the final point, that the Bills have at times had a lot of well paid depth. It gave them one of the deepest rosters in football but it definitely limited their ability at times to pursue bigger ticket items in FA.... although can be argued the one time they did it hasn't exactly worked out. In a year where they have decided to take some pain on the cap they are knowingly trying to reduce that amount. It's a strategy I support. I suspect though we haven't seen the last of Dodson. If it doesn't work out in Seattle wouldn't be shocked to see him back in Buffalo in the next 2-3 seasons.

Personally I think that is quite likely. Agree that isn't Coleman's fault. It is just my view as to where he is and what the performance arc looks like.

I agree. That is the crux of it. The problem as I see it for the Bills is that they have a big hole at outside receiver and there is a lot of pressure on this kid to fill it day 1.

Maybe for your age group and your demographic but the next generation will just enjoy it for what it is. That's been the way since the beginning of sports. With each set of generational changes you get the generation that grew up with the old game who say "it was better in my day." I turn 40 in a couple of weeks *sobs* and me and my mates get nostalgic over Premier League soccer from the 90s when the game was played at 100mph and was a bit more blood and thunder. I made my 19 year old second cousin sit and watch a re-run of an old game with me over Xmas and he was like "this is utter crap it's so basic, just like a fight on a soccer field." His generation much prefer the smoother, more methodical, less physical style of today. I don't speak to any teenage Americans (I'm guessing there are not many of those here) but I suspect you'd get a similar feeling re. the NFL. You will have to ask the league why they always tend to go for early in the season. There are some ground availability issues as you get later in the year (they normally try and coincide at least one of the weeks with the Premier League break for international fixtures) but I don't think there is anything insurmountable. I wonder whether they think weather is a factor too that might affect attendances for the neutral fans who are not hardcore of either team.

That is possible but would mean that team is still at a disadvantage by having the earliest possible bye - week 4. Because last year the Jags games were home (Wembley) week 4 and road (toilet bowl) week 5. So in order for the home team to get the chance to go over a week before they'd have to have the week 4 bye. But the NFL is going to persist with this idea over the next few years and as you say see if teams can adjust / find a way to deal with it. They will only accept defeat once they have tried every possible way to make it work. Won't be the Bills.

Not sure that's fair. Zeke was very good his first four years. His last three years in Dallas he was trading on his reputation more than his performance but his first 4 seasons he had almost 5,500 yards at over 4.6 a clip with 40 touchdowns. I didn't like Dallas drafting him as high as they did because he is a running back but he was legit those first 4 years. In fact Zeke is the poster boy for why you don't take a running back top 10 and why you should be wary of taking them first round at all. He was elite his first four years on his rookie deal, so Dallas paid him. Then very quickly you see the tread wear down and his production can't match up to the contract. Draft them later, use that tread for 4 years of a rookie deal, let them walk and rinse and repeat.