GunnerBill

To be fair I think Cover 1 were always homers. Even when they were doing more Xs and Os stuff. The list of times I think they were wrong in their breakdown because they were trying to put a positive spin on it is too long to repeat.

Not sure three highly touted rookies who you expect to play would have been a great idea. Just in terms of getting them all practice reps with Josh in OTAs and camp there are only so many to go around. Teaching them all the playbook and the scheme and trying to build chemistry with the QB is a real thing. Could that have potentially brought two highly touted guys along and then a 3rd guy who you basically run with the 2s and 3s this camp because you see him as a developmental piece? Sure. But trying to get three rookies up to speed by week 1 ready to start or play significant time I think would have been a stretch. Just for the sake of the argument look at MLB last year. McDermott started camp with a 4 person rotation - Bernard, Dodson, Klein and Spector. And by the end of the week 1 it was down to Bernard and Dodson because he was worried the reps were being spread too thin and nobody was close to getting up to speed. Basically it isn't Madden. It is real football.

I don't buy this "pass catching weapons" thing either. It's the Sal C argument. The receivers might suck but they have KIncaid and Knox and Cook who can all make plays. Sure. But sometimes in the clutch it comes down to your receiver against their DB. If Shakir doesn't get held up for a second at the end of the KC game Allen throws it a second earlier, Jones never gets there and the Bills have a touchdown. While weapons in the round definitely matter there is a reason guys who play outside are more valuable in the NFL.... tackles, edge rushers, outside receivers and corners. Because it is hard to hide that with scheme. It becomes mano v mano. And the Bills still have a big question out there. I think in 2021 there was a case for taking one somewhere. In 2022 and 2023 I thought it was where they should have been looking round 1. They ended up backed into a corner this year where Diggs and Davis were gone and they had nothing in the pipeline.

That is my worry. That we get through 2024 and still think "our biggest need in round of the draft is a wide receiver." And 2025 looks at this stage like a really good pass rushing group and should be the ideal time for the Bills to finally find a stud edge rusher. But if the hole is still there on offense.....

Hmm. If Green Bay's success is about a creative passing scheme why didn't it work with Alan Lazard and the corpse of Randall Cobb's career? Nah. It is about WR talent. The Packers have drafted some young guys outside of round 1 but have done so in bulk and had some hits. The Chiefs wide receiver room was the weakness of the team last year and while you can say they won a Superbowl so it justifies the decisions they took but Reid immediately went out and signed a former 1st round receiver in FA and then drafted a 1st round receiver. It is an interesting theory but I'm sorry I just don't buy it. The Bills receiver room doesn't look like this because the Bills have cottoned on to some league wide trend. It looks like this because they have criminally under prioritised the drafting of wide receivers. Since Beane has been GM only Tampa Bay (who have had Evans and Godwin the whole time) have prioritised the position less in the draft. 31st out of 32 teams. That is why our WR room now is a rookie, a decent slot guy who came on last year and other people's cast offs.

If this is true and there are so many grrat receivers why haven't the Bills got anyone who has ever sniffed 1,000 yards on their roster?

Meh. We are better than Indy and the Rams by some way IMO. The other three are tough but even if the Bills go 2-3 in those games it is likely fine. I feel much better about their chances of getting to 12 post schedule release than I did before it. I still veer towards 11-6 as their record but there is a clear route now to 12 for me. Win 7 of the first 9 (doable), then 2-3 in that run (doable) and then run the table Pats, Jets, Pats to finish. 12 wins.

Spector makes it. I think he is much closer to a lock than fans think. Core STer on a unit that just lost leaders and actually played pretty well when he had to go in at LBer.

I actually think for a tricky slate on paper that sets up quite well for us. Weeks 2, 3 and 4 in prime time is a pain for my annual leave calendar. But really glad no Christmas game.

I understand why you are pulling for Hamler. Less so for Cephus I think he sucks. I am not particularly pulling for any of them. I doubt any of them end up as guys I think we MUST keep come September. To be honest I'd keep Tylan Grable if he ends up OL10 over any of those guys as WR6 for the reasons I've set out.... you have to play the claim game.

I don't dispute that I just think the vast majority of that depth was gone before round 5. Thrash and Washington were the two guys that went later. On Hamler I liked him coming out a fair bit, whereas I thought Isabella for example was way overdrafted. But at this point they are in the same category. Guys who have just spent a full year on a practice squad without being elevated (Isabella may have been once) or claimed by anyone else. The medical probably does factor in as well for Hamler but like you said there is a batch of new guys that come in every single year and last year's treasure becomes this year's trash quite quickly. I think either of them would have to rip it up in pre-season to not make it through to the PS.

I don't think it was an amazing day 3 WR class to be honest it was very top heavy, but take the point it was an overall stronger draft and Shorter would not have been a lock to get drafted. This isn't really about Shorter for me, I have been pretty consistent since they drafted him that the chances of someone with that profile making it in the NFL are slim. Size speed guys who underachieve in college almost never break out in the league. The point is that those last few roster spots are about two things: 1. Special teams value; and 2. Likelihood to get claimed. I think they feel VERY comfortable that both Isabella and Hamler would not be claimed. Maybe if one tears up pre-season that changes. But right now, they would both make it through to a PS. Hamler was released after injury and medical conditions with the Broncos but he then spent the entire season on the practice squad of the Colts and didn't elevate him once despite a far from stacked receiver room that included Juwann Winfree and DJ Montgomery. There is no reason to put either of those guys on the roster unless they totally dominate pre-season. They will get to your practice squad. Use the 53 protected spots you have on someone who might not.

And that may or may not prove true on Shorter. All I am saying is we know it is true on Hamler and Isabella so they will not keep those guys over someone they think is a risk to get claimed. In my head if you are looking at receivers that gets you to Shorter and possibly Claypool as the players for the final spot. If you are looking wider they could keep 5 receivers, keep a developmental tackle they like and have 2 or 3 of the vets on the PS.

No but I think he is more likely to be poached that a Hamler or a Isabella who the league has kind of taken its view on. That is my point. Equally it isn't just a WR for WR equation. Tylan Grable might be our 10th OL, but he is more likely to get poached than Hamler or Isabella. If they think none of the candidates for WR6 are waiver risks then they could keep a 5 and keep an extra lineman for example.

I don't think Hollins is a total lock, but I do think he is likely to make it. I certainly wouldn't be betting a single pound against it.

I think that is exactly the point on Hamler and Isabella. They are not gonna get picked up if they are cut from the 53. So they are easy cuts. If the Bills think Justin Shorter might then he makes the 6 on the roster.

Really good special teams player and has a role on offense which is often about allowing the Bills to dictate match ups. They particularly like 21 personnel against the Chiefs actually - he averages 19% of the offensive snaps in the last 6 games vs KC. The Bills like that look 'cos it tends to keep Spags in base and stops him doing some of the really exotic stuff and they have always fancied themselves making plays on the Chiefs linebackers in coverage.

I think Williams is a real candidate but how does he get on the field is the question? Unless Milano is struggling to get back, which would be nothing other than bad news.

MVS makes it. Hollins probably does. And 1 other.

I have New England in that group as well but I agree on the rest.

This is a good point. His decisions on re-signing his own have been good and generally at sensible values too. Taron Johnson in that list too.

I think more likely they are hoping everyone is a bit better..... supporting cast, coordinator and Quarterback. Not blaming Josh for our offensive struggles last year but it was his worst season since his breakout IMO both in terms of mechanics and decision making. They need him to be better this year because I think it is likely the supporting cast is at best a push.

He wasn't Sauce's guy on that play. They are in zone, Sauce is really responsible for the outside but reads where Josh is going and tries to dive across and make a play and just misses. That wasn't Shakir running a route vs Sauce and getting the better of him. Also, that was a route ran from the slot where Shakir gets a totally free release. The #26 looks as though he might go and engage but lets Shakir go and plays his responsibility to the flat. The reasons he can't play outside regularly are the same as they've ever been for me. Short arms, struggles getting off press and will get bodied out by bugger corners at the catch point. Shakir is a good player. He is a slot receiver.

He may well have a higher ceiling than those guys but it is playing inside as a slot.

Yea I don't think MVS is great or anything - he is a #3 receiver - but he is a speedy, vertical, outside receiver and we lack that skillset. If it is a one year deal and they attack WR again next offseason I can live with that.