GunnerBill
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Posts posted by GunnerBill
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Yea me too. I don't see where they go at QB if they release him.
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Yea whilst I like Whaley his media management isn't that great. He clearly isn't all that comfortable with the public facing bit of the role. I'd have been quite happy for Buddy Nix to carry on doing that side as long as it was very clear Whaely was the fella making the decisions.... :-)
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The Texans should have taken a Quarterback or traded back and taken a Quarterback for my money. Would that have meant either a reach or shopping the #1 pick for historically low compensation? Probably, but they were a team with defensive talent and Arian Foster. That their 2013 season fell apart was not a true reflection of the team but a reflection of their circumstances. They didn't have a franchise Quarterback, Fitzpatrick was their likely starter and they were unlikely to be drafting that high again this year. Take the Quarterback you think has the best shot to be your franchise guy, use Fitz as a placeholder, continue to build the D in later rounds around JJ Watt and run the ball lots with Foster. As it is Houston is the team probably most like Buffalo. A franchise QB away from competing. When they got a guy to play at a league average level for a couple of years in Matt Schaub they were a play-off team.
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No love for Baccari Rambo?
Either he should be an "unknown" or a very good for his one start
I presumed they were including his poor performances for Washington in the ranking. Being bad in that defense is not fatal though... the Washington D has been awful for years.
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5 years, $50million, $35million guaranteed. I think the Bills are going to go the road of offering him a lot of guaranteed money to try and keep their cap hit manageable. This is the first indication we will really get of how the Whaley era wants to manage the cap going forward, especially in an era where we genuinely have some of our own guys coming up who deserve paying.
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I think it is safe to say that Schwartz's scheme was more predicated on a pure run stuffer in the middle of the linebacking unit than Rex's and that rather devalues Spikes especially given the young talent we now have in the position with Kiko, Brown and Bradham. I think Spikes probably finds somewhere that pays him as a starter and walks... however, he has spoken about how much he loved last season, so if he is going to settle for a rotation anywhere my guess is it is Buffalo.
The Searcy issue is a little more complicated. I thought the Bills might be able to get him for around $3.5mill to $4mill a year, which is the kind of money you would give to safety who is nominally your starter but your lead starter in a rotation (essentially the way they worked Searcy and Duke last year) rather than a starter who will play every single down. If Searcy thinks he can get in the $5-6million a year range as an every down type starting safety then good luck to him and thank you for his contribution as a Bill. I think Whaley looks a lot at things as units. The current 2015 cap numbers of our other starters in the secondary:
McKelvin - $4.9mil
Graham - $4.45mil
A. Williams - $3.9mil
Gilmore - $3.84mil
As has already been stated when you go to 2016 (at which point Gilmore will need paying) Aaron's cap hit goes to $6.1mil and Graham and McKelvin both stay at those current levels. It becomes a question of how much you can tie up there especially when you look at the fact that Dareus, Bradham and Glenn are also going to need paying.
I think Duke Williams in the main played pretty well last year. Yes Gronk torched him. I am as big a Schwartz fan as anyone but the gameplan of trying to use Duke on Gronk (I'm guessing the thought was Duke is a physical player) was a bit of a disaster. However, take that game out and he played more than people think as a rotation for Searcy and I thought he did well and got noticeably better as the year went on. I'd like them to maybe bring a veteran in to be in that competition / rotation, or they might move Graham there if they do make a run at Revis but for my money the sky will far from be falling if Duke ends up our starter.
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What do we think St Louis would take then? And what are people willing to give?
They won't get a first and we don't have a first to give. Will they get a 2nd rounder? Seems a lot to me given what we know about his injury history and his cap issue and the fact that the new team would only technically have him for a year.
The $13million cap hit doesn't worry me... we have plenty of cap space and a major need for an upgrade at Quarterback. The FA pool depresses me more and more everytime I look at it - so........ I'm gonna make the Rams and Bradford an offer:
The Buffalo Bills 3rd round selection in the 2015 NFL Draft and our 5th round selection in the 2015 NFL draft (our actual 5th not the 1st pick of the 5th that we have via trade). In addition, if the Buffalo Bills re-sign Sam Bradford to a new deal a conditional 2nd round pick in the 2016 NFL draft.
To Bradford I offer this - a guaranteed extension if he starts all 16 games in 2015 and throws for 3,500 yards or more at over 62% completion.
That would be my starting point for negotiation and see where we go from there.
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This was one was interesting
Kristofer Tompkins
"Die hard pats fan here. To be honest I was both happy and nervous about Rex being back in the Afc east. He always gives us a good game. The Bills were great last season. Look at how they played Manning and Rodgers. And to be honest Brady both times even though very late in the first game we pulled away. In that first game they knocked out Ridley and Mayo and almost injured Gronkowski if yall remember. They are really physical and with spikes there with a personal vendetta against us it'll be great. Go Pats. It's the drive for 5!"
Yep, interesting stuff. i think I've said before for reasons that I won't explain the only way I could follow the first half of the game in Week 17 was the NFL's radio feed which given the Patriots were at home was their guys. There were two things in that broadcast that all the Pats guys agreed on:
1. The emerging threat in the division was coming from Buffalo and that if we could get even league average Quarterback play that threat would be very real indeed.
2. It was a "win" for New England that the Jets were going to fire Rex Ryan.
Put those two things together and I think most sensible Patriots fans feel as though Buffalo is going to give them a run for their money in the next couple of years in the way that Rex did his first couple of years with the Jets. They also agreed Philbin staying on in Miami was a win for both Buffalo and New England.
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So I suppose the idea for this thread came out of the different perceptions of EJ and Derek Carr thread. The 2013 Quarterback draft class was seen as an all-time weak class and the 2014 class was seen as having more depth but no slam dunk Franchise calibre QBs. In total 8 guys from those two classes have started so far in the NFL.
3 from 2013 - the first three QBs picked - EJ Manuel, Geno Smith and Mike Glennon
5 from 2014 - the first 4 QBS taken and the 10th - Blake Bortles, Johnny Manziel, Teddy Bridgewater, Derek Carr and Zach Mettenberger.
So I've looked at the 4 key statistical categories of those eight guys over their NFL careers so far.
The results are below:
Completion %
1. Bridgewater - 64.4%
2. Mettenberger - 59.8%
3. Bortles - 58.9%
4. Glennon - 58.8%
5. EJ - 58.6%
6. Carr - 58.1%
7. Geno - 57.5%
8. Manziel - 51.4%
Rating
1. Bridgewater - 85.2
2. Glennon - 83.7
3. Mettenberger - 83.4
4. EJ - 78.5
5. Carr - 76.6
6. Geno - 71.5
7. Bortles - 69.5
8. Manziel - 42.0
YPA
1. Mettenberger - 7.9
2. Bridgewater - 7.3
3. Geno - 6.9
4. Glennon - 6.5
5. EJ - 6.4
6. Bortles - 6.1
7. Carr - 5.5
8. Manziel - 5.0
TD-INT Ratio
1. Glennon - 1.93 (29/15)
2. Carr - 1.75 (21/12)
3. EJ - 1.33 (16/12)
4. Bridgewater - 1.16 (14/12)
5. Mettenberger - 1.14 (8/7)
6. Geno - 0.73 (25/34)
7. Bortles - 0.64 (11/17)
8. Manziel - 0 (0/2)
Now I don't pretend that any of the above gives us a complete picture on any of the eight Quarterbacks considered.... but I think there are a few interesting things that come out of it:
- at least based on the numbers so far Teddy Bridgewater looks to have been the best available option over the two drafts.
- It is much more of a confused picture after him until you get to Manziel where it is fair to say the sample size remains very small.
- Zach Mettenberger probably ranks as the "best of the rest" and given that he was a 6th round pick looks very good value even if he doesn't end up as the franchise answer in Tennessee.
- Considering the different perceptions of the two classes it is interesting to see that the next two when you rank across the piece after Bridgewater and Mettenberger are EJ and Glennon and that Glennon, EJ and Mettenberger seem to have a little gap in terms of their production so far on Geno, Carr and Bortles (although clearly EJ and Glennon have had some 2nd year stats included in the overall which might create a slight distortion).
It will be interesting to see how Bridgewater develops and whether he can establish himself as a franchise Quarterback. It will equally be interesting to see what extent any of the others can develop into legitimate starting options.
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Asiata is the very definition of "one paced" the other back who played some for the Vikes last year and then went on IR however, I really did like. Is it McKinnon?
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Maybe I'm ignorant, but I think Urbik is better than Williams :|
I think most on here do. I don't hate Chris Williams though... and our running game all but disappeared the moment he went down. I think his reputation from other stops preceeded him a little in Buffalo I thought he was steady when he was in and Richardson (massively) and then Urbik (less so) were downgrades. There isn't a lot between them in all honesty - the pro for Urbik is he has a better health record the pro for Williams is the salary cap situation.
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If I remember correctly they dont just assign ratings based on the eye-ball test and how much they like a guy. I think they go through every play of every game and do a +/- of good plays and bad plays for the whole year. Then they run a statistical evaluation for each player and compare it to the average player. I think the z-score of the individual player's +/- comapred to league average is what assigns the elite, very good, good etc designation. They very well may think Mario is better than Kyle but thats just not what the numbers they have show. It may mean they need to tweak their evaluation but I dont see it as a "They love Kyle"
But maybe Im thinking of something else.
No you are correct that is their approach. However, it is like anything when does an objective assessment become a subjective assessment. If you start from the position of loving player A and there is a miscommunication on a play between player A and player B who are you more likely to mark down?
I just don't believe it is nearly as objective as they would have you believe.
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Yea the bloke who runs the site loves Kyle. Since meeting the bloke who runs PFF (he is a Brit) my respect for it as an analytics tool has gone through the floor. He is one of those blokes who massively has favourites and if you are one of his favourite players you are magically assured a top grade every year.
Mario Williams is not only elite, I don't see a better pure defensive end in football. JJ Watt is the best D-lineman but he lines up as a DT and a DE.... Williams as a guy purely playing defensive end is, in my view, unmatched in the NFL.
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I think that pretty much confirms my suspicion that so long as Williams is healthy Urbik is done.
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Why do we keep mentioning his rookie year? No one is pointing to that. Let's talk about him being afraid to throw passes to his WR's in his second year. That's more pertinent.
And I don't disagree with that but this thread wasn't, as I understood it about EJ vs Derek Carr it was about the differences in perception. What I am arguing and have tried to articulate a couple of times but maybe I am not doing very well is that the perception after EJ's rookie year was already a "hasn't shown enough" whereas the perception of a similar rookie year, that statistically is actually worse, from Carr is "shown some flashes of franchise ability." My argument from that base is not "EJ deserves another shot" as you say he showed no development into year 2 but rather that part of the problem here is that we have been so starved of Quarterback success for so long that I think our perception of any rookie coming in who didn't immediately light it up would be "move on who is next?" I think the chances now of EJ being our guy are slim so it is more a pondering about the expectations for our next rookie if that is where we do indeed end up this year or next year or the year after that.
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I would be thrilled. I'm starting to think that TE & RB will be the 1st 2 players picked (depending on FA). I
I agree unless they fall in love with Bryce Petty or (less likely) Brett Hundley. The Bills seemed intruiged by Petty given some of the comments at the Senior Bowl. I've also noticed an increasing amount of QB noise coming from Chris Brown and Murph recently. Might be nothing but maybe they have an inclination the team is looking at Quarterbacks seriously. I think it is a long shot but I wouldn't be shocked if one of our first two picks is at Quarterback.
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I think you are seeing something completely different than I am. I don't see a fan base that expects a rookie QB to have a Pro Bowl season. I see a fan base that would be thrilled if they thought EJ could someday be considered an "average" QB ranked somewhere between 15-16 in the league. Not in his first year even -- just an average game manager QB down the road.
But for people to say that they knew after his rookie season that he couldn't be some day down the road mature into an average Quarterback is in my view based on subjective style points, because based just on the objective evidence it was very possible. But this isn't to defend EJ.... I was on board with him starting last year but I like everyone else was alarmed by a training camp that looked like regression and by the poor performances against San Diego and especially Houston.
I don't know that you are definitely going to find someone who comes in and year 1 has numbers that massively outshine EJ's. Of the 8 Quarterbacks drafted in 2013 and 2014 that have started games (EJ, Geno, Glennon, Bortles, Manziel, Bridgewater, Carr, Mettenberger) only Bridgewater's numbers are demonstrably better. I know people will say "oh they are two weak Quarterback classes" but it goes back to disucssions we are having elsewhere, colleges are not producing pro-ready prospects they are producing projects and this fanbase is going to have to accept as painful as I know it is that if we are going to find our Quarterback of the future in the draft the chances are he will be at best below average out of the gate and we will have to be patient. I repeat - I am not making an impassioned argument for patience in EJ... I'm just saying at some point it is going to require patience. I think it will with Carr in Oakland too.
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Orton was absolutely dreadful down the stretch.
He was to the point receivers quit on him too. Sammy took plays off, and in the losses to Miami, Denver and Oakland there was exactly the same body language from the receivers as there was when EJ was in. Personally I'd have pulled Orton in the Miami game when that game was still close and seen if EJ could spark something, anything, even if just by running a few keepers.
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I think this thread just further proves my premise. If we had drafted Carr a year ago and he had played like this in Buffalo (and listen I have seen every NFL throw the kid has made he has missed some open guys just as bad as EJ has - it is called being an NFL rookie Quarterback) we would have gnashing of teeth and screaming about his pathetic YPA and crappy completion percentage. We wouldn't be pointing to the spells he had in games where he really had that Oakland offense moving and where he got into decent rhythm.
I am not suggesting that we got as far as babying any young QB either whether that is EJ, a mid round guy this year or a high draft pick next year.... but whilst this fan base continues to obsess over the position in the way that we do we are creating a climate where it is even more difficult for a young guy to succeed and where nothing short of a pro-bowl rookie year will do. There are not many Andrew Lucks, there aren't even many Russell Wilsons.... eventually we have to take the Giants approach with Eli or the Chiefs approach with Smith or what the Dolphins have tried with Tannehill and say it might be 2 or even more seasons of up and down inconsistent play before 'our guy' develops the consistency to be considered a franchise guy. EJ might not be the guy to invest that patience in, Derek Carr might or might not prove to be that in Oakland.... but I don't think any normal rookie would be given a chance by this fanbase anymore.... nothing but excellence on day 1 is going to be tolerated.... it is totally unrealistic.
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I am with Yolo. The perceptions are different and I don't think justifiably so. Let me go on record as saying I like Carr. I think he is a guy who can go on to be a good Quarterback in this league.... but so far he simply has not proved himself to be better than EJ Manuel and if we had sat through Derek Carr's rookie season then this fanbase with its obssession with finding the true heir to Jim Kelly would be at best split down the middle on him and the usual suspects would be crying for us to draft another Quarterback.
Carr had some very good games where he showed flashes of potential franchise Quarterback ability. However, he had some stinkers too. Long spells in games against Miami, San Diego and St Louis just off the top of my head where they couldn't move the ball and he was missing open guys. They were performances every bit as awful as EJ in Tampa and Pittsburgh and this year in Houston. But he is a rookie. You accept that there will be some bad with the good and the stats comparison demonstrates that. I actually think Carr will prove to be better than EJ, but that is based on nothing more than the awarding of style points so far. There is nothing concrete you can point to.
My post is not to try and argue for EJ Manuel to be given the reigns as our starting Quarterback. I think personally he is drinking in the last chance saloon. He needs to win the competition in camp and then show a marked step forward this year if he is going to continue being considered as anything more than a serviceable backup Quarterback in the NFL. Rather my point is that perception is King of reality in this situation and the Buffalo Bills have been starved so long at the Quarterback position that our expectations of what the vast majority of rookies look like has become warped. We crave things from elsewhere based on highlight tape and the odd game of evidence believing that the grass is always greener and that there is an automatic quicker fix to our Quarterback problem.
EJ Manuel is probably not our answer as a franchise Quarterback.... but given where this fanbase is at the Quarterback position I am not sure any rookie short of an Andrew Luck type generational talent would be given the time and the opportunity to prove themselves the answer. If we had Derek Carr there would be people here calling him a bust already. That, in my view, is a huge problem.
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Given the injury and the devaluation or running backs, I think Gurley slips into the start of the 2nd but I don't think he drops as far as #50. Jacksonville at #36, the Giants at #40, the Rams at #41 and the Falcons at #42 are all majorly in play for me, as might the Vikings be at #45 depending on the AP situation.
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mallett is a 2015 UFA and is available on march 10th.
bradford is a 2016 UFA, but will most likely be cut because of his enormous cap hit. fisher has stated they would like to keep bradford, but only at the "right price". STL is going after foles.
foles is a 2016 UFA. he in the last year of his contract at a very low cost. kelly has yet to endorse foles and trade rumors are swirling.
Okay... Mallett has started what? 2 games? There is still a major question mark about how good he is to me.
The Rams sound to me as though they have accepted that their best chance of winning in 2015 is with Bradford and I think he will be back there now and Foles? Who knows? But the point is neither of those guys is guaranteed to be available. If the Bills decide to hang on and wait incase something happens and it doesn't..... then where are they? By that time McCown, Hoyer, Moore, Locker and Sanchez could be off the market and you have no competition at all for EJ.
I am content for them to kick the tires on McCown so long as it isn't a deal that ties him to us if a better alternative does shake loose somewhere down the line.
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Pardon my lack of knowledge of these Guards... But if Boling is a better G than Iupati then why would he be 5 mill/yr vs 8/yr for Iupati?
I'm not sure he is better, I wasn't properly clear in my original post.... I think he is more well rounded. Iupati is a superb run blocker he busts holes in D-lines consistently and creates running lanes for backs although he didn't play quite as well this year as in years past (a bit like Cordy Glenn here I think he was hampered by substandard line play in some positions around him). He is the biggest "name" in this FA Guard field and he will get $8million. Iupati does, however, have a weakness in pass protection especially when anyone that isn't a hand in the dirt defensive tackle becomes his responsibility. I'd say he is an average pass protector but one of the most dominant run blockers in the league.
With Boling you don't quite get the same dominance in the run game, although you do get slightly better mobility in respect of his pass blocking. I'd be surprised if you get Boling for $5million though. I'd have thought given the paucity of high level guard talent in the NFL he could make $6.5million a year or somwhere thereabouts quite easily. It may be that he is willing to take a hometown discount to stay with the Bengals though and if he does that would take him out of the equation. I think Orlando Franklin is probably the third guy I'd have at the top of that list, however, he only moved inside to guard this year and given that he can still play tackle he might promote himself as a free agent at tackle to try and generate a bigger pay check. I think Franklin is probably closer to Iupati in terms of $$$ than Boling.
After those three there is a drop off to James Carpenter from Seattle and Dan Connolly from New England for me, with Carpenter having an obvious advantage being a fair bit younger. I think you are looking at $4-5million a year for Carpenter. Then you start to get to guys like Rob Sims who struggled this year with the Lions and John Jerry who is Incognito's old running mate and would probably be best steared clear of on that basis.
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McCown is just not that good. If you look up 'mediocre' in the football dictionary you'll see his picture.
I know. I said that in my post above this one. I just don't think Vick is even mediocre once you take his legs away (and they are not what they were) that was my point.
Don't expect Spikes or Searcy back
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
100% agree. I'd have loved to keep Seacry too and keep the whole D together but you could tell just from what Whaley has said that they were hoping a reasonable contract would be enough and it isn't. He thinks he can get Aaron Williams like money and I personally don't think the Bills should pay that. I've liked Searcy a lot the past 2 years. He was good as the dime in Marrone's first year too before becoming the starting safety.