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GunnerBill

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Everything posted by GunnerBill

  1. Sure. But that is why I said zero. I was talking specifically about the waiver process.
  2. He was always a clunky scheme fit. I was asked on here before that draft to rank the top 7 corners in the class as potential Bills scheme fits. I put Elam 6th. They drafted him on physical profile and trusted they could totally change his playing style.
  3. Jones is more a Mike in this scheme than a will. So what is the plan? Play him as a limited athlete at Will? Move Bernard off a great year to Will? Trade Elam for a backup LB? I just don't see the fit.
  4. I would agree on Gore if his name were anything other than Frank Gore junior. I am not saying he will but I think is better than almost zero. Would have to be a team keeping 4 though cos I agree his lack of teams play stops him being your 3rd gameday active.
  5. Wasn't subject to waivers as a vested vet. Was Bates player for player? Forget who went the other way but think it was.
  6. I was right there a year ago and then they didn't do it. Granted they had Milano healthy and they had Dodson who had at least been around a bit (though hadn't played much) but you can still have the vet in the room without needing to roster them because of the rules now. Use the 53 to protect your young guys, the practice squad rules make it really easy to have a vet in the room and to elevate them if a guy goes down. I just think vet middle linebackers are kinda ten to the dollar. I expect they will go the way they did last year again and go with the young guys and put a vet on the PS. If they had a vet who was clearly in their best 5 that's different. But they don't.
  7. Roster cutdown waiver acquisitions it is zero. That doesn't mean he hasn't made claims though. We have been near the back of the waiver queue for all of that period. I'm sure there is one or two in season waiver claims I might be missing - Jordan Phillips the first time back in 2018 was definitely an in-season waiver claim. There probably have been some others since but in terms of cutdown waiver pick ups since 2020 it's zero.
  8. Not as relevant to this conversation which is mainly looking at the back end of the 53 and camp depth (although that has been impacted this year by tightness to the cap and all the dead money on it) but yes... I think there is a trade off between depth particularly when you are talking how strong are your #2s vs how many difference makers are there that you have regularly on the field? And I do think the Bills have veered slightly too far towards the vet depth end as against the prioritise the elite end. But it is a bit chicken and egg, right? Have they had more $$s to build depth because they haven't found enough elite guys that they need to pay top of market or have they not paid enough elite top of market guys because they have spent too much on depth? I think year by year a bit of both is true of the Bills roster building. In fairness to Beane you also have to say they have had some just plain bad luck. When three years in a row you lose one of your top 6 paid guys to a season ending injury by the midway mark that is going to hurt.... so they haven't always been able to get maximum efficiency from their spend on their top guys because of the ACLs to Von and Tre, the leg break for Matt and Tre's achillies and that is without throwing in Milano's bicep tear which I think we all hope isn't season ending and he could come back for the stretch run if the Bills are in the hunt. So in conclusion: yes, I think there's a trade off; yes, I think the Bills have probably been slightly further towards the depth end than I'd like; but equally the reasons for that are, as ever, complicated to easily unpick and a range of factors at play.
  9. I've started this thread on the back of an interesting shoutbox conversation last night about whether Bills fans over estimate the quality of their cuts and worry unduly about people who are essentially camp legends in Buffalo but don't register on the NFL landscape otherwise. I think there was certainly a time when that was true when we'd be worrying about losing guys to other teams when we were arguably fielding a bottom 10/12 NFL roster. But I said last night that is no longer true and actually the Bills do a great job with roster depth right through camp. It is something I think contributed to the long pre-season unbeaten run which before the defeat to Carolina in the final pre-season game of 2022 stood at 10 games. Certainly since 2020 when they won their first division title in forever the Bills have had very deep 53 man rosters and deep groups behind that through camp. That has led to cutdown day resulting in the Bills losing guys they would have liked on their practice squads. I knew they were top 3 in that category, I'd heard that in a podcast but I thought it was with the 49ers and the Ravens... it turns out it is the 49ers and the Jets (anomaly, more to come). Since 2020 the teams who have had the most roster claims on guys waived at cutdown day are: 1. Buffalo Bills (10) 2. New York Jets (9) 3. San Francisco 49ers (8) =4. Kansas City Chiefs (6) =4. Philadelphia Eagles (6) What do you notice from that? Well the Chiefs (1st), Bills (2nd), 49ers (6th) and Eagles (10th) are among the winning most franchises over that period. That, you would logically assume, means they have strong rosters which makes them harder to crack for rookies and undrafted players which means each summer they are more likely to cut guys other teams think they could use. Why then the Jets? Hard to say. Of their nine, five came in a single year - 2022 - and while it is not immediately obvious why that should be the case there was an element of year 2 of Saleh being a time they cut bait with guys drafted under Adam Gase. I think it is probably just one of those inexplicable anomalies because otherwise the pattern is pretty consistent. Good teams have more guys claimed than bad teams. For those wondering the full list of the 10 Bills claimed: 2020 - Vincent Taylor, Defensive Tackle - claimed by Cleveland Browns 2021 - Jack Anderson, Interior Offensive Line - claimed by the Philadelphia Eagles 2021 - Nick McCloud, Defensive Back - claimed by the Cincinnati Bengals 2022 - Tanner Owen, Offensive Tackle - claimed by the New Orleans Saints 2022 - Luke Tenuta, Offensive Tackle - claimed by the Indianapolis Colts 2022 - Nick McCloud, Defensive Back - claimed by the New York Giants 2022 - Kingsley Jonathon, Defensive End - claimed by the Chicago Bears 2023 - Nick Broeker, Interior Offensive Line - claimed by the Houston Texans 2023 - Alex Austin, Defensive Back - claimed by the Houston Texans 2023 - Zayne Anderson, Defensive Back - claimed by the Green Back Packers I think that in itself is interesting. It breaks down as four offensive line, four defensive backs (including McCloud twice) and two defensive linemen. What do those spots have in common? They are the most numerous spots on NFL rosters. Most teams keep 9 or 10 at each of those spots and that creates greater opportunity. Worth reminding ourselves that in addition to these 10 guys claimed off waivers Brandon Beane has swung late camp trades to recover day 3 picks for the likes of Darryl Johnson (6th rounder), Boogie Basham (6th rounder), Marshall Newhouse (7th rounder) and Russell Bodine (6th rounder). It's also interesting because of where Brandon Beane has deployed draft and free agency dollars. He has brought in a ton of FA vets on both lines, spent a lot of high picks on the defensive line and drafts at least one day 3 defensive back every year (with a reasonable rate of success I might add). The positions where he traditionally hasn't invested so much *cough* wide receiver, you don't see guys who fail to make the Bills roster being desired by other teams - although Isaiah Hodgins was claimed off waivers when the Bills finally released him in 2022 thought that happened later in the season. What does all of this mean for what happens this week? It will be interesting to observe. My contention all summer has been this camp squad is not as deep as previous years, despite what looks like a decent crop of day 3 picks from the most recent draft. I wonder if that will show itself in the Bills facing fewer roster claims? The majority of the guys I think might be attractive if they hit the waiver wire - Cam Lewis (who I think is still subject because I think he has 3 accrued seasons rather than 4 despite being around longer), Ja'Marcus Ingram, Kingsley Jonathan, Tylan Gable, Alec Anderson, Zach Davidson - are all likely to make the team. So I think the remaining candidates are: Joe Andreessen who is obviously the most interesting case. Personally I have him making the 53 but if he doesn't the Pittsburgh tape was so good you might get a bottom feeding team who think he is worth taking a chance on. Tre' McKitty, who might also make the squad if Quintin Morris goes on IR, but if he doesn't could garner some interest. He cleared waivers when cut by the Chargers last October before the Bills scooped him up for the practice squad, but teams are generally less willing to mess with their rosters at that point of the year and he still has the pedigree of a former third round pick and is a good special teamer. Frank Gore Jnr, who health permitting could get some looks. I don't think any other 5'8, 4.69 running back would be getting looks for a waiver claim - even with a strong pre-season behind him but I do think the lineage might tempt some teams in. His dad wasn't big or fast either and was overlooked but is going to end up in Canton at some point. And then of course there are always the surprises. I'd say of the 10 names listed above 9 were guys you always suspected could be at risk of waiver claims if cut and might not make it through to the practice squad..... the one that stands out is Luke Tenuta who the Bills wasted a 6th round pick on. He looked so stiff in camp and pre-season and it was a shock the Colts claimed him. Even more so that they cut Ryan Van Demark to make room who cleared waivers but landed on the Bills practice squad and eventually made the active roster last season and is on course to do so again this year. Tenuta was waived by the Colts two months later and claimed again by Green Bay where he remains having spent 2023 on IR. Takeaways: 1. The Bills have been one of the most picked over rosters at cut down day, which speaks to their roster depth even through the summer in recent years; 2. The guys that get claimed are generally at those high volume roster positions - OL, DL, DB; 3. There look to be fewer guys this year who might fall into that category if they are cut. Hope some of you got to the end of that and it was at least somewhat interesting. EDIT: should say analysis based on information from nfltraderumours.co who run a yearly tracker. I can't entirely validate its veracity but it seems comprehensive from a quick cross check with the NFL.com's unwieldy waiver tracker page.
  10. Why do you have Morrow making it? He hasn't played a snap in the pre-season was with the 3s all the way through camp.... he is the mystery to me. I have 5 staying: Bernard, Williams, Spector (so long as healthy), Ulofoshio, Andreessen. Morrow or Jones or some other pound a penny vet on the practice squad. Except they didn't last year. They went with young guys and put Kirksey and then Klein on the PS. I expect them to do the same. That level of vet is seriously easy to find and the practice squad rules now allow you to just stick them there. Morrow should be cut IMO. I don't know why he hasn't played a snap in pre-season but when a guy is with the 3s in camp then doesn't get on the field its usually a bad sign.
  11. You can and you don't have to designate. You only have to pre-designate for the two you IR on cutdown day. Once a player makes the 53 he can be IR'd and then he just becomes one of your potential 8 returns you are allowed during the course of the year but you don't have to decide that at the point he is IR'd whereas you do with the pre-cut ones. Deion Jones is totally washed. He has been terrible in pre-season. He was a great player 8 years ago. It is not 8 years ago now. I loved him in the draft and thought he was freaking awesome his first 4 or 5 years in the league. But as I said when we signed him: there is a reason he has been cut / not re-signed 3 times in the last two years. He's toast.
  12. He has been freaking incredible for a rookie 6th rounder who has only plaued tackle for like 3 years. The last two seasons I have lived in a "we are a Dion Dawkins injury away from season over" world. I know it is only pre-season but I am much more relaxed about it this year. I am not generally a get carried away about day 3 rookies type. But I am excited. His run blocking still needs some work. He needs to fire off the ball a bit better and get downhill but he has been terrific in pass pro. He looks like a kid that could play right tackle next year if Spencer walks and then in 2/3 years as Dion ages out you could legit think about flipping him. I know, I know.... calm down. But man he has been impressive.
  13. I don't think it was him who misplayed it. I think it was on him that they were lined up wrong and then he was trying to communicate right before the snap and obviously didn't get the message across but in the Bills scheme there the way they have run it under McDermott the will linebacker drops into zone on the tight end and the mike comes up and tries to take the flat. Other defenses do that differently and just say outside guy attack the outside but the Bills have generally played it the other way. I don't know who was at fault or what the call should have been. But my guess is Jones shoulda had the tight end just based on what they tend to do. Andreessen's worst plays were the toudown run up the middle second half where he hesitated and then got beaten to the spot by an OL and there were two pass plays where the Panthers ran 4 verts and he struggled carrying the vertical route in the middle of the field and the ball was thrown over him. That is the hardest bit to grasp, in fairness, and to execute. But Carolina got him on two of those.
  14. Agree. It increases the odds. But it isn't guarantee. Jones was an EASY cut IMO. He sucks.
  15. It is well known that McDermott is one of the best at designing disguised coverages (Belichick I think called him "the best" at one point) but you gotta have smart players on the backend to make it go. That is one of the reasons I am far less chilled about safety than some are. Yes, it's just safety.... not a premium spot.... but if you don't have the right guys there in *this scheme* it forces you to be way more vanilla.
  16. Made better decisions in 2022 and 2023. I think once we get to this offseason, sure, there were some limits to their options. Although even then they had the choice to be more aggressive at the draft, they had the choice to target a true outside free agent... someone like DJ Chark rather than someone like Mack Hollins who feels like a safe "locker room presence" vet rather than a "best receiver available" vet.
  17. He was exclusively left tackle last night. He seems to have displaced Van Demark from that spot.
  18. Him making it would be about the lack if legtimate receiver options more than anything he has done.
  19. His two catches last night he stumbled forward about 4 yards then fell over. I like Hamler. Liked him a lot coming out. But he has been totally ineffectual this summer. His best plays were at the end of last night as a running back.
  20. He was also at center with the second team for the first time. He has mainly been the third team center so far, last week he got the last series the twos were out there but at guard. Last night he was at 2nd team center with Alec Anderson at RG. Not sure if that was just a result of Clapp not being healthy or a genuine promotion but interesting nonetheless. SVPG has had a solid 3 pre-season games but the rookie star on the OL had been Tylan Grable. I think he might legit already be our 6th best offensive lineman.
  21. I think he is more of a mike than a will.
  22. It was backups all the way for the Bills in their pre-season finale against Carolina so let's have a look at who helped themselves and who hurt themselves in the battles at the back of the roster and for the practice squad, but before we do... a call out for the Panthers roster which includes not only former Bills Jacob Hollister (we'll always have pre-season 2021) and Jordan Matthews (now a tight end - who knew he was still in the league??) but also Ihmir Smith-Marsette and DiCaprio Bootle (who both made my draft sleepers thread in 2021 coming out of Iowa and Nebraska respectively). A reminder that the rosters of bottom feeding NFL teams have a glorious "where are they now?" quality to them . Anyway, onto the Bills.... Good Night for... Ja'Marcus Ingram - I know Ingram is locked in on a roster spot as this team's fourth corner but it is almost impossible to overstate how good a summer the former University of Buffalo product has had. He was hanging with Carolina's 1st team receivers and had two really nice coverage reps on that first drive down in the endzone against Diontae Johnson. Caps a really impressive pre-season and his emergence, coupled with an improved showing from Kaiir Elam this summer, has taken outside corner from a depth concern to potentially one of the deeper spots on the Bills roster. Frank Gore Jnr - Hope the injury he suffered late is not serious because over 100 yards and a touchdown at 5.6 per carry wrapped up a terrific pre-season for Gore. Man does he run like his dad? He's never going to be the biggest or the fastest but his vision, his knowledge of the position, and his ability to fall forward are going to make him a valuable commodity on cutdown day if he is healthy. I think there is a possibility he gets claimed off waivers because I can see a team or two combining the tape with the name and being willing to take a chance on the lineage. If I was the Bills decision maker I'd consider keeping him over Ty Johnson who is an ultimate JAG but I don't expect them to do that and as such Gore may well end up on someone else's 53. Tre' McKitty - Worth reminding people that McKitty was a third round pick of the Chargers back in 2021 after a collegiate career where he was a starter at Florida State and Georgia. It didn't work out in LA and he was released last October after which the Bills added him to their practice squad. He has been the forgotten man of this tight end battle but with Quintin Morris hurt (and possibly heading to IR) there is at least one spot on the roster to shoot for and that third tight end normally has to block some, and has to play special teams. McKitty does and Zach Davidson doesn't (he has tried a bit of teams play this pre-season but it's very much a work in progress). McKitty had a nice block on Gore's TD run, and two catches on the night, including an impressive acrobatic grab for the 2 point conversion. If there is a name on the 53 come Tuesday that nobody has been talking about his might be it. I still think Davidson's roster chances come down to whether the Bills keep a 4th tight end who is "just" a receiving tight end. Deon Cain - I have called the receiver battle beyond the established "top 4" on the Bills depth chart a few words over this summer. Uninspiring is the polite term. Utter garbage might be more accurate. However, Deon Cain as a late entrant is intriguing. He won a National Championship with Clemson while in college but suffered an ACL in his rookie training camp with the Colts. His career has never really recovered its momentum from there but he was the MVP of the USFL Championship game last year and while he is probably in last chance saloon territory as far as the NFL goes he caught the ball (I know, how novel) and he showed more bust after the catch than KJ Hamler. I suspect he would need to be allocated one of the six allowed "veteran" slots on a practice squad, and that might make his path tougher, but I'd be in favour of keeping him around more so than some of the other contenders. Te'Cory Couch - When people say "get rid of the pre-season altogether" I always object. The reason is the opportunity for guys like this. Couch got on the field a bit in the second half of week 1 and the very end of week 2 but he played as the "starting" nickel with the second team defense that started the game last night and played throughout. They used him in a Taron Johnson esque way combining his time between a true slot corner position and playing in the box as a third linebacker. The kid took his chance. 10 total tackles and a sack, plus a good special teams play on the opening kick off. I think he has worked his way onto the practice squad. Good job. Bad Night for... Tyler Bass - You know when I said it was backups all the way? Yea, well worryingly the worst night of the lot belonged to the one man on the field the Bills will need to rely on when the season begins. Missed a field goal from 51 (and he has plenty of leg it's accuracy that is the issue) and fluffed a kick off not hitting the landing zone and causing a drive start at the 40 yard line. McDermott was pretty direct about him when asked afterwards but this is a problem. The second half of his 2023 season was a disaster and he has not re-found his mojo. The contract is a problem if the Bills wanted to cut bait but the reality is his leash must be pretty short at this point. Linebackers - The Andreessen hype has cleared and this performance was much more reminiscent of his week 1 effort than the MVP display against the Steelers. I expand it out beyond him thought because Deion Jones was bad too (I believe it was he who misplayed his responsibility on the goalline - the Bills are almost always will on tight end, mike on running back in those situations - although clearly Andreessen had issues communicating the call) and Edefuan Olofoshio was a liability in coverage in the second half too. Andreessen got washed on a Panthers rushing touchdown up the middle and also struggled twice carrying vertical routes in coverage down the field. I still suspect last week makes it risky to try and sneak Buffalo Joe to the practice squad but the Bills might now feel it is worth the risk. Tyrell Shavers - He was this year's OTAs and early camp receiving darling. There seems to be one every year. They rarely make the team. I don't think Shavers is making the team either. Not going to put the drop on our first offensive play on him, DiNucci has to make a better throw, but the missed touchdown was 100% on Shavers. That is a perfectly thrown ball by DiNucci and while Shavers does a great job with his release he slows and starts looking for the ball way too early. He has to stay with the route there and trust the ball will be where it needs to be. It should have been a simple touchdown grab. I just don't see a guy here who has shown enough to make the team. If MVS is not healthy I might be tempted to roster four receivers at initial cuts and see what shakes loose elsewhere. The rest of these guys suck. Kyron Brown - Brown spent all last year on the Bills' practice squad and at the start of the spring there were those who thought he was essentially battling Ja'Marcus Ingram for a potential roster spot at corner. He has been absolutely dreadful in pre-season. He got worked again last night, gave up another touchdown, missed a chance for an endzone pick and was just generally out of position and out of his depth at every turn. Against Carolina backups. Yea. That's bad. I believe he might have played himself off the practice squad. I certainly hope that is the case. The idea of him being called upon for a real game is terrifying. Casey Toohill - When Toohill signed in the spring he was expected to factor into the defensive end battle, after all, he lodged 5 sacks last season in a situational pass rusher role with the Commanders. He lost most of his camp to injury and that is unfortunate but he got his first game action last night and looked way below the level of the guys he is competition with. He got a free run at a sack on Bryce Young on the first drive, but whiffed, and it didn't get any better from there. One of the easier cuts the Bills will make this week. Okay guys, add your own, flame away, and begin the two weeks of bickering before the Cardinals come to town! We are on to Arizona!!!
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