GunnerBill

You don't understand how tight Beane and McDermott are.

Yep. That is exactly why.

The last three seasons they have basically not run Josh before Thanskgiving. It is a consistent pattern that Josh's carries tick up the last 6 or 7 weeks as the games matter more. I think that can't be coincidence.

Hmm. Least favoured..... #1 Rex Ryan - hated him before he arrived, hated the hire, gave him the benefit of the doubt but he proved me right. #2 Richie Incognito - heard him interviewed in his first spell here and thought he came across as a jerk. Then there was the whole bullying incident at Miami and even when he returned he wasn't my type of person. I know he had his own challenges and I genuinely wish him well but just the type of person I'd avoid in real life. #3 Percy Harvin - less of a personality thing there just more I thought he was hideously overrated long before the Bills signed him. His career was overpromise and underdeliver. Found him hard to root for. #4 Chris Kelsay - not for him, but for what he represented in my first decade following the Bills. A defensive end who started 120 games for us over a 9 year career here and topped out at 5.5 sacks yet was re-signed twice. He was emblematic of a team that simply wasn't even trying to win.

In AAV, yes. He is still near the top of actual cash per year though.

Not quite right. The LockedOn Network has existed for a while. Joe has been a contributor on it for a long time (as has the other Draft Network founder you reference - Kyle Crabbs) but they didn't start or found that. They were two of the five founders of the Draft Network. Marino and Crabbs had originally collaborated together on NDT Scouting with Jon Ledyard. The Draft Network was basically Ledyard's idea funded by a guy name JC Cornell whose dad owns/owned Target. Marino, Crabbs and Trevor Sikkema (now of PFF) were the other three "founders" and they were really the content guys. Ledyard was the convener / organiser, Cornell put up the cash and the other three guys were the ones who gave the site its credibility through their content. Basically it began to fall apart when Ledyard had to resign over some racist tweets that emerged from years prior. Then Cornell sold up, Sikkema left to go to PFF and it ended up as a basket case. Ironically 2022 which in my mind was their best year in terms of their actual draft coverage, quality of their content etc was a complete disaster behind the scenes. The new ownership was running it into the ground financially, they were being sued by their web hosts and their live draft show was filmed in a porn studio where the analysts had to sleep on blow up beds and hide sex toys out of shot. I think Joe and Kyle tried to keep it going for as long as they could but eventually they walked away in the middle of the 2023 draft season and took their podcast "the Draft Dudes" back to the Locked on Network where it had begun before being incorporated into the Draft Network. The Draft Network website is now back (after being offline for much of the 2024 draft season) and they look like they are producing content again. There is a LOT of early 2025 draft content some of which is decent enough. They still have Keith Sanchez (who was a personnel advisor at LSU) who is a credible analyst on all things draft and personnel but the rest of their contributors are people I'd classify as bloggers about the draft rather than analysts who can really get into the film and break players down the way Joe and Kyle can. So in short, it looks like they are going to give it another go in 2025 but the quality of the people they have isn't what it was. It is a shame because there is a market for a site doing exactly what TDN does. But it needs really good management and it looks like it was a classic start up story behind the scenes. A group of buddies with a cool idea and a bit of start up capital but lacking the strategic direction to bring it together.

Fair, no I didn't. I should have phrased more carefully because he did "spend" those picks. Not team has drafted at a lower cost in terms of draft value chart except the Buccaneers.

your timing is slightly out - he wanted to hire Jackson in the Rex round, not the McDermott round. But you are correct Whaley wanted to carry on interviewing in 2017. He was in the process of putting a slip in for Steelers DC Keith Butler when the Pegulas pulled the plug. They had a second meeting with McDermott and his wife on the Pegula yacht without Whaley in attendance where Kim was already running Mrs McDermott through school choices and districts look for a house in. Dougie still thought he was mid coaching hunt and Kim was already onto house hunting for the coach's wife! I think on your second part the other thing they probably like about Beane is he is the first to own his mistakes. And Terry probably tired of people like Rex and the old Sabres GM (name escapes me, Whaley's buddy) always blaming everyone else. His sense of "look I got this wrong it's on me and I know how to fix it" probably resonates a little better than some of the other execs Pegula has had to listen to. I don't know for certain but I'd be shocked if Beane went to Diggs for a pay cut. I think their mind was made up they were moving on.

OL - The minus in the "B-" is for building, in his own words, a "horrible" offensive line in 2018 to protect his rookie Quarterback and the 2022 moves. I said it at the time - Saffold was always overrated and totally washed and Bates was a backup masquerading as a starter. IMO the offensive line was the biggest need on the roster going into that FA period and they went for two guys they were comfortable with (Bates as an incumbent and Saffold who Kromer knew) and it failed. I think they failed predictably. They did a much better job in 2023 with Cybo and McGovern but 2022 was a missed opportunity. WR - I did factor in his lack of investment at the position, yes. You may disagree but I think it is relevant. Only one team in football has spent less at the position in terms of draft capital in the years Beane has been here. When you have Josh Allen under centre that's a mistake IMO. On DL - the reason it is a D+ in free agency for me is it is the spot he has spent the most cap dollars since he has been here in terms of FA acquisitions and the production way underperforms expectation. On safety - maybe a D is harsh. But I start from the perspective of a C is neutral. Maybe it should be a D+. But trading a pick (I know only a 7th) for Dean Marlowe only to not use him remains mystifying to me that has to knock something off.

You credit him with guys he didn't select? Interesting approach. As for leaving guys off... I didn't leave anyone off. I was asking who is his 4th most successful pick and I think too early to say it is any of those four. He was on the recruitment teams, but "played a big role" well it depends how you quantify a big role. Buddy and Russ made the call on Marrone and Whaley's recommendation in 2015 was to hire Hue Jackson. Now that would likely have failed too. But that was what happened.

I know FOR A FACT that Whaley did not push either of those hires. Not true. Brett Veach, Eric DeCosta and John Lynch are three of the top half dozen GMs in football. None of them have control over coaching. It is increasinly common now for organisations to have GMs and HCs on the same tier of the organisational structure both reporting into a senior football exec or the owner directly.

Even if I agree with you re. coaching - I don't - Beane is not responsible for the coaching. He didn't hire the Head Coach, he doesn't hire the coordinators.

For sure it is easier drafting at the start. I don't think their drafting since has been good enough to win a Championship. It has been good enough to keep the team very competitive year in year out. But you need stars to win Superbowls. And they haven't drafted enough of those. One (Allen) in 44 picks Beane has made excluding this year's class.

I didn't forget that one. I did refer to the second tier FAs (though think Coleman was a trade wasn't he?). I still think overall Diggs, Brown, Beasley all weight strongly in his favour there than the lower level whiffs. On the DL - possibly, but I don't know who was responsible for all the ex Panthers on the line.

I ignored the OPs explanations from the scale. They don't work for me.

Hmm interesting thought exercise. Here is my take: Position Draft FA + Trades Notes Quarterback A C+ Josh obvious stud. Think he has done a reasonably well with the vet backups he has landed in recent FA rounds Running Back B D Singletary and Cook have been good starters from day 2 of the draft. However, a third day two pick at the position (Moss) washed out. And if you are investing day 1 or 2 capital at a low value position like RB they have to hit. FA role players have generally been no more than JAGS. O Line C B- Miss on his highest drafted OL (Ford) who he traded up for hurts. Brown seems to have turned it around and Cybo was a decent rookie. Mixed bag in FA but more good (Williams, Morse, McGovern, Spain - for a bit) than bad though Saffold was an obvious mistake that could have been avoided IMO. Tight End B+ E Dawson Knox is a good all around tight end who was one of the most productive redzone tight ends in football in 2021 and 2022, Kincaid had a top 10 all time rookie tight end season. His biggest FA shot was Tyler Kroft back in 2019 and he majorly underperfomed his contract. Wide Receiver C A- Hard to score the draft. He has underprioritised the position there, but two of his day 3 shots - Gabe and Khalil developed into NFL starting receivers so you have to factor that in. Diggs alone makes the pro personnel grade an A (Brown, Beasley and Sanders factor in too) but I've nicked a half point back for the Kelvin Benjamin trade and some of the second tier FAs. D Line C+ D+ Mixed bag in the draft. Oliver a stud. Groot a good starter. AJE developed into a good rotational rusher years 3 and 4 but probably still underperformed his round 2 status. Boogie miss hurts and no elite talent despite the investment. From FA its mainly misses (and some big $$ ones) Floyd and Jones apart. Linebacker B N/A Bernard hitting last year helps this grade. Edmunds while he never quite justified his pick, was a 5 year starter. They have barely used FA at the spot beyond STers. Even their backups - Dodson, Spector etc have been draftees or UDFAs. Corner C- C+ Had some success finding starting calibre players with late round picks / UDFAs - Wallace, Jackson and Benford etc - but looks like a big miss on his one premium pick at the spot (and a confusing process given the obvious scheme question). Douglas a good trade, Vontae less said the better. Safety N/A D Bishop is the first pick before round 6 spent at the position. So that's a TBC. Hyde and Poyer were not Beane pickups. I'm not as in love with Rapp as some and they gave up a pick two years ago to bring Marlow (a total JAG) back and then barely used him.

He is a B for me. I think he is one of the best GMs in the league at identifying players who can play in this league and building a roster strategically with depth. The reason he isn't an A is he has struggled to find elite game changers. I know, he hasn't drafted high since 2019 and the two very early picks he made - Josh in 2018 and then Ed Oliver in 2019 are his two most impactful in terms of game changing talents (fair gap between the two, but point stands). However, he has had a LOT of draft picks now. He has made 44 picks as the Bills GM (excluding the ones this spring yet to have a chance to make an impact). Allen stands well alone as #1 as any elite QB always does, I'd put Ed Oliver #2 and Taron Johnson #3. But who is #4? Gabe Davis? James Cook? Dawson Knox? Rousseau? And while Ed is very good (better than most fans believe) he remains a tick below elite for me and Taron is a top 5 nickel corner but in terms of positional value that isn't necessarily a dial mover. It is why he has had to spend big assets (cap and picks) on the likes of Diggs and Von Miller to try and bring that elite sparkle that all championship teams need. I like Brandon, like him a lot. He talks really well, I think he is pretty candid (sometimes without meaning to be) and he comes across as pretty authentic. It isn't easy, I accept that. But 44 picks - one elite talent. That is what stops me giving him an A.

Agreed, I always said the 2017 tear down was a choice not the only route. But it wasn't just that they drafted Josh. Tre, Dion, Milano and Taron also came from those first two draft classes and they got Poyer and Hyde in the McDermott free agency period of 2017 too. Of course Josh mattered most, QBs always do, but having ripped apart the old core they were pretty successful in building a new one. They are now right at another transition point from that core to the next one, they need to get that right too.

Oh I agree. He was dealt a bad hand. Landed with Marrone by Buddy, then involved in two coaching searches where they hired against his advice. But he was someone who fell in love a bit with skillset absentia of some of the more fundamental building blocks of a successful roster.

Sammy was indicative of the Doug Whaley approach. He was a good talent spotter and Sammy was a very talented boy. But Whaley really looked no deeper than talent. He didn't ever build a team because he never appreciated what it takes to build a team. You need talent. But you need application, you need cohesion, you need a collective sense of purpose. Sammy had the injuries too and that hurt him. But his personality into a locker room that didn't have any of the culture you need to succeed was ultimately a poor fit. If the Bills drafted Sammy Watkins now into this culture (and he had better injury luck) who knows how it would have gone? But I think he'd have had a better chance of succeeding.

Fair play to Josh. His mechanics were noticeably worse last year than any year since 2019. Good on him for going back to work on it.

I think that is their plan and they have actually done some of it against KC in the last two regular season matchups. The problem is they have played the playoffs the last three years missing major pieces in their secondary and with guys hobbled. It's really hard to play a ton of man and be successful when you are down to your backups. They have to be better at stopping the elite offenses in the playoffs, but part of that for a defense that is built on fundamentals and chemistry rather than elite difference makers, is going to rely on being luckier with health.

I disagree. I think that Barca side while exceptional sometimes gets overhyped and that Madrid side gets underappreciated. They have won 6 of the last 11 Champions Leagues. I agree that overall that Barca side had more talent than the Madrid sides that have won 6 Champions Leagues, but I think the midfields are a LOT closer than people like to accept. Modric and Kroos have been awesome for over a decade.

I would have. The problem in Pittsburgh is Quarterbacking not coaching.

Only incoming trade I could see is for a kicker if Bass struggles in camp and pre-season. I imagine he will find someone near the bottom of the roster to flip for a day 3 pick going out though. Imagine a lineman or a linebacker.