GunnerBill

I think the bottom end of your yardage projections and half the number of touchdowns is a realistic target for him. 700-750 and 4/5 TDs. Anything above that is gravy. My concern on the offense isn't really that they won't be able to move the ball. It is that in those critical gotta have it plays in and around the redzone where scheme matters less and you need a guy to just win his matchup teams will be able to clamp down on them. Which was happening 2nd half of last year with Stef's drop off and I see little evidence that they have done enough to change that.

Nah. I'm sorry. You're wrong. It isn't as simple as you make it appear. And the guys who make the top generally, though not always, get there because they are the best at what they do. It is true in every profession. Is opportunity equal? No. And given the same opportunities at the start of a career could other people end up better? Yes. But the idea that any fan who thinks they are smart know more than the pros? They don't. The reason the NFL draft doesn't play out exactly in order is because of the complexity of the exercise not the failings of the professionals. As I say we have seen teams go down the uber analytical with proven experts who have done it successfully in other sports. It hasn't worked in the NFL. I spend hundreds of hours on the draft every year. Its one of my hobbies. I feel at the end of it like I have a pretty good handle on 140-150 of the guys picked. You don't nail every one and sometimes you completely miss on something but normally when a player over or under performs you have seen why that would happen on tape and the complexity is balancing that element against the reasons it might go the other way. Nobody bats 100 because that is really difficult.

Yes I think Keon's release package is ahead of where Gabe was coming out. But I don't think he converts that into separation consistently because I don't think he is a good route runner and I don't think he is able to dictate to coverage.

Equally though, 2020 apart, the offense has been considerably more healthy in the post season than the defense. Not make excuses for either side. But as I say every time this comes up the reality for why we have failed is a lot more multi-faceted than is sometimes presented.

I agree, I think he will. If we still had prime Diggs and this was an upgrade on Gabe at WR2 I'd be pretty optimistic about this group.

Oh he is definitely more athletic. Less stiff in his movements. Has more fluidity in his hips. Straight line speed they are comparable (I actually think Keon is a shade faster despite the 40, my view on Coleman has not changed from what it was before the infamous 40) but as an overall athlete Coleman has a definite advantage.

I don't see that on his tape personally. And I watched a ton of Keon film. EDIT: he is better than Gabe was coming out off the line but Gabe did improve his release package in the league. He was never great at it but he was definitely better years 3 and 4 than years 1 and 2.

I am not arguing they are geniuses. I am arguing that they have more knowledge to do their football jobs than the average fan. If you put a load of super smart STEM graduates into those jobs with no training they would fail. If they took entry level jobs and worked themselves up maybe they'd be better, but without that they'd fail. Player evaluation in the NFL is way harder than most other sports, which has been proven when these analytics gurus who have had success elsewhere have tried to translate those approaches to football.

It doesn't stop with them, no. But there are far more guys who do know a lot more about what they are doing than the average fan in the street does. As I say, there are always duds, but that isn't the majority.

Personally, yes I would but not by a ton. I had a late 2nd on Coleman and a mid 3rd on Gabe. I also am not persuaded he is - at this stage - a better route runner or better at getting separation. I think he is pretty much on a par there with Gabe coming out. Better hands and much more dynamic after the catch are the two big differences IMO that justified that difference in my evaluation. And then as you acknowledge, Davis was playing opposite Stef Diggs - an elite player - and didn't have to start day 1 cos Brown was still here. Coleman is being pencilled in by Beane as their starting X because their outside receiver options asider from him are thin to say the least.

I think I am slightly less convinced because I have always believed Jared Goff is a good player, and underrated by most NFL fans because he sucked as a rookie and that impression stuck. They have an elite line (the best in the NFL) and a good Quarterback. I do think they have outperformed expectations based on the receivers on the roster, but I think they have a really solid base there to start from. He is a good coach, clearly, but he isn't in that company yet IMO.

You think Johnson is a top 3 offensive coach?? I mean, I think he is good, but he hasn't proven to be at that level IMO.

Most memorable? 13 seconds. Second place is the 4th and 1 home loss to KC in 2014 under Marrone. A game we dominated, should have won and instead lost which had we won would probably have meant the drought ended 3 years sooner. I remember the heartbreaking losses more than the wins.

Oh yea completely. I am interested in the game first and foremost. That is the coach in me I suppose. I can appreciate an atmosphere but it isn't what makes it special for me.

I am British. Interestingly I agree on soccer. It is much better watched live as a constant flow game. As a re-set game though I think football is much easier to follow and understand on tv. You can see a bit more about coverages and route combinations from the stadium but you can see almost nothing of what happens up front. I'd much rather watch football on tv.

Ha I have told the story here before it is a long one.... but the short form is family friends are from Buffalo.

So my two stadium experiences have been in London but I much prefer to watch on tv. It is actually much easier to see what is going on. I will come and see the Bills in Buffalo at some point (probably new stadium now) but my favourite way to consume the NFL is at home on tv. Likewise my setup at home allows me to have multiple screens and multiple games on at once. In the slot the Bills are not in its usually redzone main tv two games. If the Bills are the main sky game over here it is them main tv, redzone and one other game. If the Bills are not the main sky game then it is them main tv and two other games because redzone is ahead of international gamepass by a down normally and I hate knowing we have scored before I have seen it.

Yes, all I was saying was Millen is a bad example to use to try and prove the point. Because he was from the start an anomoly in his appointment to the role.

The point is Millen was from outside the circles of where general managers come from. So he isn't proof of anything one way or another. He got a GM job with zero personnel experience. Brandon was a GM in name only. He did no more than turn in the card. Tom Modrak was the Bills decision maker in those two drafts and FA periods (he was actually the Bills real GM for 4 years between 2006 and 2009 but because he worked pretty much the entire time from home in Florida presentationally they knew they couldn't give him the title so Marv and Brandon had the title but did none of the job). Whaley was not a great general manager. No question. And I am not arguing anyone in those jobs is automatically competent. Not at all. I am saying like most industries a share of those that get to the top are duds. But I think the NFL gets it more right than wrong overall when it relies on elevating guys who have been good assistants to the top jobs.

I direct the jury to article 1.0 - Jim Tomsula. (Agree generally though, total incompetents may be harsh but guys who are clearly not good enough or incompetent for the level to which they have risen).

I think you have to separate Millen out a little from the conversation. Sure, he is an example of an incompetent NFL senior exec but we know he was hired for who he was not what he knew. Every now and again those total left field hires from out of the booth etc happen - Millen, John Lynch, Jeff Saturday. They normally (though not always) fail. You have to separate those out from the conversation about the people who come up through the conventional route IMO. The interesting question is the extent to which the NFL develops coaches and personnel people to be Head Coaches and General Managers and whether that process is identifying and promoting the right people. My view is that broadly it does but like every profession it makes mistakes as well and you occasionally find a total incompetent in a senior position.

So I have been in that company on a number of occasions. Some are super smart guys who I definitely felt in awe of. But it is like any profession, it is a mixed bag. And I agree with you, not everyone who makes it makes it because they are brilliant. I'd say more of those at the top are there because of talent than not.... but it is definitely not universal.

Wouldn't qualify as a surprise in my book. I'd be shocked if Jones makes the roster. All his drops were concentration in the redzone when he took his eye off the ball. Between the 20s his hands were very good. It needs fixing but it is an easy fix IMO. Von is my answer too. It would be a surprise.... I expect him on the roster.... but if he looks no better in camp reality will dawn on them pretty fast IMO. They won't keep him if he can't play and the last time we saw him on the field he couldn't play.

Waddle would be amazing in this O. If he had made it to FA I'd have been willing to throw serious money at him. Smith is an upgrade on what we have but I don't think he would be transformational in the same way.

Anyone who played since colour tv was invented?