GunnerBill

Yea Jacksonville's issue was playing us in a ton of man so that Josh knew what he was getting every snap. They mixed their single high with their two deep pretty well. It was not being willing (or able?) to show us any kind of disguised zone coverages that got them shredded.

Their defense sucks and their oline sucks. They have serious issues aside from QB IMO.

At some point he has to play. I get that. They were hoping that the Oline would bed in a bit the first few weeks and improve. It hasn't. Personally I'd have waited a while longer. My thinking would have been as soon as we say any improvement from the line OR the last 6 games regardless. I think this is a horrible situation to throw him into.

He came from Deonte Harty getting hurt, hard as that is to believe. Harty (then known as Harris) was their run vertical speed guy in 2021. Had 570 yards and 3 touchdowns. Shaheed came in as a rookie in 2022 and was cut at the end of camp and put on the practice squad. Week five Harty hurt his foot, went on IR and the Saints signed Shaheed to the active roster to replace him. The next week Shaheed was active and used in the vertical speed guy role. Had similar numbers in that role in 2022 to Harty the previous year and then has earned a bigger role in the offense ever since. When you are a UDFA you sometimes need luck (or someone else's misfortune) to get your opportunity. And generally you only get one. Shaheed got his at Harty's expense and made it pay. Well done to him.

He couldn't get on the field on a terrible defense. I think he is cooked. No idea what happened. He was excellent his first couple of years.

I felt like if the Bills won either of the last two the playoffs were pretty much a certainty. I think they need at least 4 of the next 5 now to stay in the hunt. 8-2 they'd be in a good spot. 7-3 they'd be okay. Worse than that they are in trouble... although if the Jets implode 9 wins might win the East. Zero chance the Pats or Miami get more than that IMO.

About the same. He has always done it.

Sure. But the point was if you have a 10-15-20 year QB it is inevitable that you have to have these resets, reloads, mini rebuilds. It is just a fact.

Yea that is fair.

And when I repeated it post draft I got as much heat for not like that as for not liking the Josh pick a year later. Seriously it was ridiculous the following Peterman had on here before he played a down. I was, thankfully, very wrong on Josh. But my take on Peterman was exactly as it played out. College QBs with rag arms get tagged as "smart and accurate" almost by default. He was neither smart, nor accurate. And his arm is barely pop warner standard.

Yea that is feasible. It isn't my reading of it. Looks like a slot post to me. I think the ball sails outside on him. The endzone view that is what it looks like too. Looks like it gets away. But you could be right. Regardless of whether it is a bit Josh and more Hollins or more Josh and a bit Hollins the play was there and they missed it.

It is definitely something that I spotted. Particularly where I mention on that failed play action early. It doesn't freeze Hunter because it doesn't ever look like a handoff. I wonder if the left hand injury is playing a part in that?

Breaking: Aaron Rodgers has fired Robert Saleh

It wasn't that it was an overthrow so much as he ended up with it outside and while I still agree with you Hollins can do a better job adjusting I had put pretty much all the blame on him before I saw the endzone view and the throw was just in the wrong place. It was a slot post route all day and Allen let it get away to the outside. You can't miss outside there.

How does it? They pass with him on the field, they run with him on the field. It isn't even the case that every pass when he is out there is off play action.

What I meant there is there is no "tell" about what play is coming based on formation, personnel grouping, shotgun vs under center. You might pick up on some gameflow stuff, sure. But he isn't showing you when they come to line "okay this is a passing first down" vs a rushing first down.

They definitely had reload or mini-rebuild years between eras. They went three years without winning playoff game between the two Giants Superbowls (2008 Brady's injury was a factor but 2009 and 2010 were a reload / mini-rebuild). Other than Brady only three players started both Giants Superbowl losses - Wilfork, Welker and Light. They turned over that roster a ton in that period and had 11-5 (Brady affected) and 10-6 seasons.

True to an extent, sure. But while I've never been the biggest JuJu guy he is not Mack Hollins level of inept.

Nah. Our receivers ARE trash.

Your eyes must work very differently to mine. I thought Coleman came close twice but clearly stayed in bounds. And even so that wouldn't be an example of what I was asking. Even if that was a wrong call (it wasn't) it was a wrong call that they upheld on replay. I was asking for an example of a clearly correct call that was then overturned to a clearly wrong call by replay.

I'm not as strident as some on the Kincaid play, I do think there is a chance that gets overturned - but I think there is a better chance they stay with the call. While Kincaid doesn't drop the ball it is moving a lot and the point definitely comes into contact with the ground. That isn't a problem as long as the player is judged to have established clear possession but because of how much the ball was moving during the process I think they'd have said Kincaid hadn't and therefore the tip of the ball hitting the ground means the ground assisted him controlling the ball. It certainly isn't a catch by rule. It is a judgment call. Had it been called a catch on the field I think they'd have found insufficient evidence to overturn had Houston challenged, but given it was called incomplete I think there was enough doubt they'd have stayed with that call. EDIT: The Cook one for me is the one that would have been an entirely performative challenge that you had absolutely zero chance of winning.

Same. I was all about the trade up for Addison in 2023. I was 50/50 on whether Thomas was worth it. Like you I'd have been fine with it, but wasn't necessarily banging the table for it. Put it this way though I'd have preferred it to a trade back and taking Keon. And I don't want to just be out here Keon bashing. I always try and leave my draft thoughts at the draft and evaluate them in the NFL based on what they put on tape in the NFL. But so far most of what I feared is manifesting. He has made some plays, so I'm still hopeful maybe he is one of those guys who you bring along slowly and suddenly he takes off after Thanksgiving, but I have some concerns too. Agree, it was a reset or a reload rather than a rebuild. But it's slightly semantics "mini-rebuild" is probably fine as a descriptor too. Every franchise QB who has a 10-15 year career has one or two of these years in there somewhere because your core guys at other spots age out more quickly.

Right now trading up for Brian Thomas, even if it means not having Cole Bishop, looks like the move to have made. Like the year before going up further and getting Addison was preferable to a smaller trade up for Kincaid.

Yea I was not really here getting into "are we passing enough on first down." I agree that 7/25 still feels too light for me. I was focussing on our lack of success doing it (the Ravens games wasn't much better... 4 from 11 for 20 something yards I think). When you put a tendency on tape that you are run on first down team and then you choose to throw and you STILL can't move the ball on first down it's a problem. And to round back to where you started if we can't move the ball with any regularity on first down through the air it will make them less inclined to do it, so one problem exacerbates another. I didn't count them up but based on @mannc numbers above I make it 18 - one of which was a designed Allen naked boot in the 3rd quarter. So 17 running back runs, 7 passes, 1 designed QB run. I sort of see the wider point you make, but I'm not sure what this offense does best at the moment. Working out what we do well would help but I have no idea what it is.

Under which philosophy?