GunnerBill

Few thoughts on this: 1. I'm not sure who advertised Kincaid as a contested catch guy. He has good hands but he is the tight end equivalent of Stef, he wins with crafty, nuanced route running. 2. I am not big on contested catch guys personally. I don't really want us to focus on finding that. I'd much rather get people who separate either with burst or route running. 3. Definitely true that we lack a guy who can win quickly - which is an issue in games like the Chiefs one where they are beating our protection quickly and Josh can't just let one go in the general direction of a guy he can confident will win his assignment. The overall wide receiver corps is still below average. I'm happy with Kincaid and think he will get better and better, but man I wanted Jordan Addison badly and he was perfect for this offense. I'm also very confident he'd have been the pick. Missing him by two spots sucks. Looks a deeper WR draft at the top this year though, so fingers crossed. 4. The thread is still a justified thread. The oline performance the past two years has been dreadful and it has majorly hamstrung offensive performance. That is not a justifiable criticism this year. I don't think the oline is dominant (it isn't the Eagles line) but has been halfway or just above halfway up the NFL this season. Certainly better than Cincy, and I think better than San Fran really who while they have an elite of the elite at LT as soon as Williams was out you saw how bad they were without him - when the second best starter on your line is Jon Feliciano you are in trouble. And James Cook has emerged as a top 5 back who is still clocking over 5ypc while handling a #1 back number of carries and is a genuine dual threat. The supporting cast is improved. At times last year (especially with Dion underperforming in 2022) you could legitimately argue it was Josh Allen, Stef Diggs and 9 JAGs. It has not been that this year. They can still get better, sure, especially at receiver. 5. I think you are spot on about the low margin of error in the pass game. And it is why ultimately Ken Dorsey had to go. Ken's offense wasn't horrible, but it was pretty vanilla. Pretty simple. And therefore it put a lot of emphasis on execution. More emphasis than the playmaking talent on this roster could handle on a consistent basis. Brady hasn't overhauled the scheme, it is almost impossible to do that in-season even if he wanted to. But they are using more pre-snap shift and motion, in run and pass game, which is giving them a numbers and leverage advantage on multiple plays and he is calling fewer hitch / comeback routes that necessarily limit YAC potential. These are routes Josh has always been very comfortable with and because of his alleged closeness with Dorsey I kinda wonder if Dors pandered to him too much on calling them. But Brady has found a way to get the ball to the middle more with his calls. Again, it isn't radical overhaul.... it is just a slightly more creative approach to doing the same stuff and it has increased some of that "margin of error" which is a good thing (while I am on that subject this blog is highly recommended reading). Not a lie from me. I said on here I thought he was clear top 10 and a borderline top 5 receiver when the trade went down.

I agree with this with Deebo. I said it when he was holding out and requesting a trade. Be careful what you wish for because I think his skillset is a really specific fit for what Kyle Shanahan does. And I know there are a ton of Shanahan copycats now but I am not sure any of them understand that offense as well as the master. Deebo is absolutely an elite player in that scheme. I am not sure he is a guy who would be elite wherever he was.

I don't think he has played like a top 5 guy this year. He is top 10 in receptions and top 5 in touchdowns though, and just outside that in yards (12th) on what has been at times a stuttering offense. But there have been more drops (highest drop rate of his time as a Bill) and while I think the "not separating" thing is a bit overblown and isn't borne out when I look at the film I do think there is just a hint that some of the suddenness of his acceleration has dipped. But he is still a master of his craft as a route runner and he was always a guy who relied on his route running skill over his speed and suddenness. If we were going a rebuild mode everything would be on the table for me with Stef. But I think that now feels really unlikely, even if they miss the playoffs at 10-7 I think almost no chance Pegula makes a change in thos circumstances. So I think you keep Stef for 2024 and you work a bit of the contract and kick the can a bit and you have to try and draft a guy who by this time next year we are talking about as potentially our next #1 receiver going into 2025.

I did and argued as much here. When the consensus was he was the 2nd best receiver on the Vikings. Which was hilariously wrong.

The Chargers are the ones I dispute here. I think you overrate their weapons. They do not separate. The rest of those teams I agree with.

The receiver group is still weak overall, but you are right the overall talent on the offense is not the handicap it was last year.

I think his written work is still pretty good. He is bad as a talking head. Rambly and states the obvious.

Yea we didn't "almost lose" to Tampa. Almost ever hail mary you can play the "if guy X did Y that coulda been complete" they are complete once in an absolute blue moon. We did almost lose to the Giants. The offense was absolutely atrocious that night. I think that was the point at which Dorsey could have been fired and looking back now probably should have been.

It is but I kinda feel we have the Hex on Miami. I mean they have beaten us twice with Josh. Once in 900° heat (and Josh missed Isaiah for a walk in touch down at the end) and once when he was a rookie and Charles Clay dropped the ball. While it is definitely a tough game (especially if they also need it) I think they would almost rather play anyone else than the Bills. But the Browns and the Texans coming back late on Sunday hurt. If those two had lost our odds rocketed.

I take the point but Easton Stick is at QB. I think McDermott shuts him down and the Bills win comfortably.

Nah he is an edge.

If the Bills win out they are almost certainly in. Either as division winner if Miami drops 1 more or as a wildcard. If they win the next two and lose in Miami the path is very narrow. We have a lot of rooting for the Titans to do.

Aren't they likely down Chase as well now though? I think it is Bengals or Browns for the wildcard. Not sure I see a path where it is both. The Jags / Colts / Texans tussle is more interesting to me. I can see a route to two of those making it. And Denver are still in it. Although I think they have to win out from here and luckily from our perspective if we win out then they are stuck behind us despite the tiebreaker.

Exactly. 0.01 for originallity. Next week Peter tells us teams who missed the playoffs just lost too many games.

Only for very brief periods. With those two the seriousness of the limitations showed even within the Shanny scheme. That isn't to dispute that he is the best Quarterback hider in the NFL. He totally is. And by a long way. But the fact Purdy has made it last for a year does suggest he is better than Mullens and Beathard.

I feel the same on Purdy. We saw who he was when Samuel, Williams and CMC were out. It is elite players that win in this league. And the elite players on San Fran do not include the QB.

Totally agree. The game this year has been about what your guys can do once they have the ball in their hands.

Eagles cheating? Surely not?

Yea that is an option for them. Though I think he'd still then be hireable on a level transfer by a team who wanted to make him a playcalling DC by the rules....

I'm going to start a thread on who was the slowest and shortest receiver to play in the NFL. Spolier alert: He played slot receiver for New England.

Yea, I am not as strident as I was on "McDermott must not be DC in 2024" a couple of weeks ago, but conscious that could be recency bias too. But Bobby is gonna get a shot sooner or later in this league. He has the pedigree and contacts of his dad's time in the league and his work as safeties coach and then linebackers coach for the Bills has been stellar.

Sounds to me like they have given up on the idea of Milano returning this year. Which probably is the sensible long term decision. Also gotta say if you told me pre-season Dodson and Bernard were it at linebacker I'd have said we are in serious trouble. Props to both and to Bobby Babich.

Douglas was one of the worst players on the field in the Philly loss. So the people raving over him should slow their roll slightly. Although, granted, he has played well in the other games. My point on Ty Johnson was that he was a JAG and I'd rather have rolled with a young guy. He had a good game on Sunday but tbh you coulda had any running back there and they would have succeeded. Until Sunday as a change of pace guy he had never broken 20 yards in a game or 4 ypc for the Bills. If thinking he is a JAG is a bad evaluation there is certainly no evidence to back that up yet. I always admit when I am wrong on players - have been plenty. I think Douglas has proved to be better than I expected him to be but I don't think he is even close to being a stud. Nor do I think Williams is Mahomes. But I am confident he is a different level of talent compared to Baker and Kyler.

The one I am higher than most on is Ewers. I need to dig more into Daniels, barely seen him. I think Williams and Maye are comfortably my top 2, but with that asterisk on Daniels I'd currently have Ewers as my #3.

He does play for the most overrated coach in football..... I am 100% confident in saying Williams is another level talented compared to Baker and Kyler.