GunnerBill

Okay I'm going to have a stab.... pre-season games can change things but what we have learned from this regime it rarely does. They value training camp much more than making plays with vanilla scheming in pre-season games. Though it often is the forum in which people solidify perceptions - Van Demark last year who had a strong camp and then was excellent on pre-season being the example. Would they have been comfortable going with him as their primary LT backup without seeing him block in pads in pre-season? Possibly not. Essentially pre-season games tell us (the fans) what they are thinking and what their pecking order is but it changes less than you sometimes imagine in terms of production in those games affecting roster decisions. So with all that said, here goes: QB (2): Josh Allen, Mitch Trubisky FB (1): Reggie Gilliam RB (3): James Cook, Ray Davis, Ty Johnson TE (3): Dalton Kincaid, Dawson Knox, Quintin Morris* WR (6): Keon Coleman, Curtis Samuel, Khalil Shakir, Mack Hollins, Marquez Valdez-Scantling, Tyrell Shavers OL (9): Dion Dawkins, Connor McGovern, David Edwards, O'Cyrus Torrence, Spencer Brown, Ryan Van Demark, Alec Anderson, Sedrick Van Pran-Granger, La'el Collins** Offense Total: 24 DT (4): Ed Oliver, DaQuan Jones, Austin Johnson, DeWayne Carter DE (6): Greg Rousseau, AJ Epenesa, Von Miller, Dawuane Smoot, Kingsley Jonathan, Javon Solomon*** LB (5): Matt Milano, Terrel Bernard, Dorian Williams, Baylon Spector, Edefuan Ulofoshio**** CB (6): Rasul Douglas, Christian Benford, Taron Johnson, Kaiir Elam, Ja'Marcus Ingram, Daequan Hardy***** S (5): Taylor Rapp, Mike Edwards, Cole Bishop, Cam Lewis, Damar Hamlin****** Defense Total: 26 ST (3): Tyler Bass (K), Sam Martin (P), Reid Ferguson (LS) Special Teams Total: 3 Okay explanations: * - the third Tight End. I know Davidson has made some plays in camp and so in a sense he is the sexy choice here. And he might make it. But your third tight end has to play special teams, and big body blockers are even more of a priority for teams with the new rules. Morris is a really solid special teamer, is definitely the more reliable blocker as of now and has shown he can play when given opportunities too. This could flip though as I suspect the Bills feel like they could sneak whoever the loser of the competition is through to the PS and there is even a chance they keep four tight ends at the expense of a 6th receiver. ** - the ninth offensive lineman. I think this comes down to a straight fight between Will Clapp and La'el Collins. Why? Because the Bills depth options otherwise are Van Demark, Anderson, and VPG with zero career starts between them. I think they like all three of those guys a lot but will want at least one vet. I lean Collins because he can play tackle and guard (though is not the player he was) and they already have Anderson and VPG who can cover at center. I will say this, even if they keep 10 I don't think BOTH vets make it. If they keep a 10th it will be Tylan Grable and that will only be if they don't feel they can sneak him through to the PS. *** - the defensive end rotation. I feel strongly that they will not want to lose either Kinglsey Jonathan or Javon Solomon. If they were sure about Von's status and readiness they'd just have him, Groot and AJE and then Jonathan and Solomon would rotate as the 4th guy. But the uncertainty about Von means they signed Smoot and he will have some value as an upgrade on the role Shaq Lawson has played here the past two years. Which means I think they have to allocate six roster spots to the position. **** - the 5th linebacker. The Bills normally keep five. Milano, Bernard and Williams are locks. I think Spector's demonstration late last year that he can play on defense and his specialism on special teams makes him closer to a lock than most think. Which leaves one spot. Ulofoshio's rib issue bears watching and he might get the old Brandon Beane redshirt injury treatment, but if he doesn't I think he makes it and they rely on getting Nicholas Morrow or Deion Jones through to the PS as their vet there which is what they did last year with Christian Kirksey and then AJ Klein. ***** - the 6th cornerback. I think the five true corner slots are locked down. Elam has had some run with the ones in camp so I think the trade him during pre-season scenario that some speculated about is now off the table. Ingram has had by all reports a good camp has played a bit of nickel as well as being their clear 4th outside guy and is a classic developmental UDFA story that this staff has had plenty of. Daequan Hardy makes it as nominally a "sixth" corner but is really here because he looks like winning the returner job. ****** - the safety situation. If Bishop and Edwards had been healthy all camp and able to properly learn this defense the Bills would keep four safeties and Lewis v Hamlin would be a genuine roster spot battle. But with those two missing so much time and being behind the 8ball in terms of learning this defense I suspect both Lewis and Hamlin are in for now as vets that have played in and understand the scheme. I think in-season one of them probably shakes loose at some point. But to go into week 1 I think they will carry an extra body here. There you go. I'll update after the pre-season games but for now this is my prediction.

I am on record I'd have kept him and released Douglas. We will see how that plays out. I understand why the Bills went the other way.

I think when Brandon Beane says he will "never apologise" for prioritising the defensive front seven that is because he means it. It is how he was taught in Carolina. It is how he has drafted. It is how he would draft regardless of who the coach was if he, as he is here, is in charge of personnel decisions.

Leslie wasn't shown the door. He decided to step away. I know for a fact that is true. I don't know what happened with Butler.

Yea I know all that. But McDermott and Butler were pretty tight. I know he put out some pretty bitter tweets after his departure so maybe that relationship has soured. But they have been VERY quick to mention that coaching change at every opportunity in a way that they haven't with other changes. For example on the Dline, while they have puffed up Marcus West they have always been very keen to be respectful of the job Eric Washington had done previously.

I wasn't talking about you. You think both are inadequate. You were not the subject of the post.

That is more than I will get from Sal in the morning. He had an accident in his pants over Josh's black helmet live on radio on Friday.

Yea. I don't think it is any reason to panic. He can still be an NFL starter. But beating out the likes of Edwards and McGovern as a rookie is a big ask.

It is that he isn't ready to be a year 1 starter. That is why he was a 5th round pick.

Which is really interesting because he and McDermott are (or at least were) tight.

Bernard was replacing Edmunds though. They didn't get close to replacing Milano's production. Ty Dodson did a fine job. But he wasn't close to a healthy Milano. I agree with this. There isna section of this board has been guily of over valuing our talent and under valuing the job our coaching staff has done. And since 13 seconds - which was a coaching failure - a group has totally attached themselves to that narrative and it is hard for them to come off it.

Yea keeping 5 is a real possibility IMO. I think they have more promising young fliers in other spots. Using 6 om receivers jusy to have 6 wouldn't be smart for me. Worrying reports from Friday. Guessing you were at the stadium? Hamler has been almost exclusively with the 2s and 3s I believe. Honestly don't think he has any shot unless he emerges as their returner. I agree on the assumption about six. I don't think that has to hold at all. I'd rather been Kinglsey Jonathan and Javon Solomon than any of the options for receiver 5 and 6.

Yea this is what I disagree with. I don't think either Hamler or Isabella have a serious chance at the 53. First because they have been quiet as hell in camp. Second because they were both PS players the entirity of last season. One here, one with the Colts. What would suddenly make either a hot commodity for a 53? Both are easy enough to slide onto your PS. MVS at this stage would still be a risk (though not a certainty) to end up on someone else's 53. I do think MVS is on the bubble. But to me he is on the bubble to them not keeping a 6th receiver or possibly to Claypool getting healthy and balling out in PS both at WR and on teams. I don't see either Hamler or Isabella as any kind of threat. And therefore I think most likely is they keep 6 and MVS and Shavers both make it.

Expendable for who though? That is kind of where I am. If this was a straight Shavers v MVS then I'd be absolutely it is Shavers because of teams. I don't think it is though. It is more like Shavers and MVS vs only keeping 5 receivers. Claypool was inconsistent the few days he was out there then got hurt. Shorter has been invisible. Hamler and Isabella likewise. Maybe they do keep only 5 but if they do that it will because they are confident sneaking other guys through to the PS.

Does sounds like MVS has rebounded a bit week two of camp and has been back with the ones more after finding himself marooned with the twos at the end of week one. So that does bear watching. I do generally agree with your point though. WRs 5 and 6 have to contribute on teams. MVS doesn't. Now my guess is Hollins will play a fair amount of teams even as essentially WR4. Whether that changes the calculation I'm not sure. My instinct at the moment is both MVS and Shavers make it as WRs 5 and 6 behind the top 4. Reason being I don't see anyone else they won't be able to PS if they want to. But pre-season games might alter that.

Okay, got you. It did change the formations because of the overload point though so I think it DID mean you had to "elect" for an onside kick. So while this may be a further tightening I think the surprise onside possibility went with the last set of changes.

Hasn't that been the case for a couple of years now since the last lot of changes?

You saw on earlier episodes their strategy was if Nabers or MHJ make it to #6 they are the pick. If they were both gone they were willing to pick Odunze but preferred to trade out.

Yes I think that is the basis of the speculation but Im not sure everyone else in that list did too.

He was worth a 6th round flier though based on his tools. Not like someone spent a 1st round pick on him.

Josh wasn't ready so they didn't want to put him out there, but he was still noticeably the best of the 3.

I can't. Goff never got enough credit for his part in the early success the Rams had with McVay. All that "McVay reads the defense for him" stuff was the biggest load of garbage I have ever heard. McVay is a top OC, no question, and that helps a QB but the level of disrespect and ridicule Goff got was crazy and I'm glad he has proved in Detroit that he is a good Quarterback. I think the thing that maybe he doesn't have that leads to him being underrated is he seems to lack the general Quarterback arrogance. And maybe that does hold him back some. He just seems a bit low key. It worked out for the Rams moving on... they won their Superbowl (though had Goff played the Bengals and not Belichick in the first McVay Superbowl my guess is they win that one too). But the Lions did great in that deal too.

He has fumbled at least twice that I have seen reported. Brady was asked yesterday "apart from the fumbles..." and he started his answer with "yea but the fumbles are big he has to look after the ball." Fair to say I think they are drumming that home already.

Aaron Williams.

It is. And I am not saying Milton will start. But I just don't think the Peterman - Allen analogy works here. The Bills were adament Josh wasn't in a competition.... but to the extent he was he won it hands down