GunnerBill

And in fairness the pattern for the last 3 seasons now has been don't run Josh earlier in the season but as the moments get bigger they have used his legs more. In 2021 he averaged 6 rushes per game through 10 games then almost 9 rushes a game thereafter. In 2022 he averaged 7 rushes per game through 10 games then almost 9 rushes a game thereafter. This year he averaged a tick under 5 rushes per game through 10 games and then so far 8 rushes a game thereafter. This pattern has now been consistent under 3 coordinators which makes me think it is part of their strategy. Limit the rushing early in the year but go to it later.

30 days. If yours is less, move to a better country with proper employment rights 🤷‍♂️

Does that mean I'll get to bed at a reasonable time? Memo to the NFL: please, please, please punish the Bills for their disappointing losses this year with no more than 2 prime time games in 2024. It is bad for my sleep pattern, bad for my work performance and bad for my annual leave allowance to keep making us play 6 or 7 prime time games at stupid o'clock in the morning UK time. If you don't heed my request we will send you Boris Johnson back and he can ***** up your country too.

Yep. Hopkins was a horrible situation for the Bills. They drafted him, committed to him, released Lindell and then he suffered a season ending groin tear on the eve of his rookie year. Carpenter came in and made 91% of his FGs including multiple game winners in what turned out to be a career year. It kinda left them in a perilous spot. Go with a proven vet who just had an exceptional year or roll with the kid who has never kicked in an NFL game off a major groin injury. There is another dimension somewhere where Dustin Hopkins is the Bills kicker for a decade. But in this dimension circumstance put paid to it. Spector was a 7th and is still on the roster im year 2 as a core STer and a backup LB. That is not a miss. Vosean Joseph, yep they missed badly on that pick, no doubt, but he was a 5th rounder. Not a day 2 pick.

If the Bills lose to the Herbert, Allen and Bosa less Chargers I will eat my hat.

We ran one with Diggs in one of the last two games. I think it was at KC but might have been Dallas. We didn't actually execute it very well and I think we got like a very small gain.

This is like 1000 times more likely than the OP's scenario. By Christmas Day the Bills will control their own destiny.

I am hesitant because at that time it would have been the wrong call. He had coordinated the #2 offense in yards and points in his 1 season as a coordinator. If you fire a guy at that point it isn't just about firing him it is the way that decision is perceived and what it says about your franchise. It would have been the wrong call. While the overall numbers were still strong in 2023 the run of performances before he was let go, pointless first halves, ugly offensive drives and an increasing feeling that things were stuck despite better offensive talent than a year ago.... the case was much more persuasive. So no, I don't accept that the people who wanted him fired after one season were visionaries. They were premature.

I don't think firing Dorsey after last season would have been correct. I think had they fired him after the Giants game that would have been defensible.

One can also hold an opinion that is wrong at a momen in time that if held later would be correct. Even if there is grounds for firing McDermott after this season, that doesn't mean you were right when you wanted to fire him 2 years ago. It doesn't work like that. Life isn't so binary.

I agree with all this and they DID interview two external candidates before they hired Dorsey - who you are correct was Daboll's first choice for OC with the Giants. It wasn't a crazy hire and actually early on the Bills offense thrived in his slightly simplified version of the Daboll scheme. He stripped out some of the bells and whistles, focussed on running our core stuff and running it well. The issues arose when teams got the book on that a little bit and his scheme didn't evolve and as I said above I think it asked for too much in terms of consistent execution from an inconsistent set of players, especially skill guys. I wouldn't have fired him last summer but I did have some doubts after year 1. I think they could have pulled the trigger a few weeks sooner after the Giants game which was as bad as the Bills have been on offense probably since that game Derek Anderson had to start. But that would be my only critcism. That said when you hire a coordinator and it doesn't work out and you fire that guy within 2 years that is on the Head Coach ultimately and he has to own it.

And their OTs. They didn't love Orlando Brown because he was a better run blocker than pass blocker but maaaaaann.... he was significantly better than Donavan Smith has been. He was never great IMO and he is washed. And Jawaan Taylor who they originally signed to a decent deal thinking they could make him a left tackle has been bad and a penalty machine even at right tackle. That has been part of the run game decline too. He had one sensational year. The rest of the time he was a #2, and he is better than Gabe, I agree with that, but he is overrated IMO. He is a middle of the road #2 receiver.

Juju had one great year when AB was literally the best receiver in football. I think other than that he is a #2. But he isn't a top end #2 by any stretch. And MVS does suck. Agree on the running backs though.

Josh and Dors were close. But I agree this wasn't some case of Josh Allen picking the OC. They were grooming Dorsey for that job already, had made him passing game coordinator, McDermott likely considered Josh's comfort with him as a factor but he didn't hire Ken Dorsey because Josh wanted him. Responsibility for the hire belongs with the Head Coach.

Yea JuJu isn't great. Look at him this year. I know he is playing with a terrible QB situation but JuJu is an average receiver. He doesn't suck but he isn't a difference maker.

Yes. I mentioned that in my original post on the subject.

The Bengals made it with a below average OL. I am not sure I can recall anyone else doing it in recent times. Maybe Big Ben's second Steelers Superbowl, that was a line a bit like our 2021 one that was pretty terrible all year but then suddenly pulled it together in the playoffs and played well. I know the Chiefs line IN the Superbowl against the Buccs sucked but remember they lost two guys in the AFCCG. That was not the line that got them there. So I am not sure I buy that you can hide a below average line that easily. You need pass catchers, sure. But at the same time the Panthers reached the Superbowl with Greg Olsen and Ted Ginn and the Seahawks reached their 2nd with Doug Baldwin (who was good but not great) and then a complete bunch of JAGs. They did at least have Golden Tate for their win. I guess I just think beyond Quarterback there is no absolute pattern to Superbowl teams. You almost always have to have a Quarterback. Otherwise it is about the number of elite guys you have rather than the positions they play. Again, none of which is me disagreeing with you on the Bills resource allocation at receiver.

While I agree - you don't need a dominant OL, I don't agree it has been a red herring the past two years. The Bills have had bottom feeding offensive lines in 2021 and 2022. The guard play has been positively disgusting. They didn't in 2020 and they haven't this year. Both of those lines were probably a bit above average. I am absolutely fine with that. But the line has been a major issue the last two years. Our record in one score games we lost where our OFFENSE had the ball last in the past 2 seasons was atrocious (unlike this year where it has been the D at the end that has failed more than it has succeeded) and almost all those potential gane winning drives that failed had a major offensive line breakdown that got us behind the sticks. That isn't to say I don't agree with you on the resource allocation at receiver. I do. I have been on receiver in round 1 the last two years. I likely will be again although tok early for me to really be on this class it looks a decent one. Gabe Davis has been a really good draft pick. His production from a 4th rounder is way above 4th round average. But you can't keep hoping to strike bronze (let alone gold or silver) with Davis, Shakir and Shorter. Eventually you gotta take a shot at a guy early.

Spotrac doesn't have a projection for AJE but it does have one for Michael Danna of the Chiefs who was that same 2020 Draft Class (a 5th rounder and one of my sleepers guys that draft season). He has 11.5 sacks in the last two years (AJE 13 in the last two years but 11 since middle of last season when the light went on). Danna was a rotational end last year but has been a starter this year. I think AJ is a better rusher, better athlete and better dropping in coverage but Danna is more of a base end who can play the run too. Spotrac projects him as 3 years, $50m, $16.7m AAV. I think that might be a tad high but not much. 4 years, $64m, $16m AAV is my projection for AJ.

Poona Ford time. Better have the sick bag handy.

They did. They interviewed three people I think. Ken Dorsey was one, Tee Martin (currently Ravens QB coach but was then WR coach) was a second and I'm sure there was one more but it is escaping me now who that was. EDIT: It was Edgar Bennett the former Packers OC.

Dorsey will get another shot and it wouldn't shock me if he is good if he ends up somewhere with weapons. His issue here was with a mediocre overall set of weapons and his scheme was just too vanilla and asked too much of execution from the guys he had. Just some minor tweaks in shifts, motion and route combos under Brady and the same offense has found more ways to move the ball. Which isn't to say it is all perfect. Some of the issues Dorsey was battling against remain.

In his last 20 games (only 3 starts) Epenesa has 11 sacks, 22 pressures, 11 TFLs, 11 pass breakups, 3 forced fumbles and 2 INTs. I think you are absolutely right someone is going to look at that production for a rotational rusher and say "man if we make him a starter and get that production" and he will get paid beyond what I would consider a sensible market value. Would not shock me at all if his contract value ends up netting the Bills a 4th round comp in 2025. I also don't think he will live up to the contract he gets personally, because I think he is at his best as a situational rusher, but pass rushers are so valuable some team with some cap space will take a chance.

Definitely linebacker. Count me among those who said with either Bernard OR Dodson we'd have a huge flashing liability on the field that teams would go after again and again. To have ended up with that duo as our starting linebacker combination for the majority of the season and for linebacker play to have been almost last on the list in terms of issues is quite remarkable. Bernard isn't just serviceable, he is legit good and Dodson while still limited athletically has been really good at just playing his assignment, getting to his landmarks and doing the basics. The second one would be the depth receivers. While I was frustrated we hadn't raised the ceiling in that room over the offseason I was confident that Sherfield, Harty and a second year of Shakir would be a raised floor from Kumerow, rookie Shakir and the corpses of John Brown and Beasley's careers. They probably have been an upgrade, but only a very slight one.

I agree on the second point. But Josh missed him on the first throw. It bounces 3 yards infront of McKenzie. That was a QB miss. Isaiah's head is round when the ball is halfway there. It just falls short.