GunnerBill

On the first point it isn't $2.2m that could be spent on another player late in the season. His contract is $2.25m fully guaranteed broken down into £1.35m cap hit this year and $900k dead money in void years. If he is on the roster this season he costs $1.35m on this year's cap and $900k on future cap. If he is not on the roster he counts $1.35m on this year's cap and $900k on next year's cap. They don't gain more money to spend on someone else by keeping MVS on the roster, except for the fact that if they cut him then they owe the salary of player who makes it instead of him and that money would come off their ability to make moves later in the year. The candidates for that are Claypool ($1.085m), KJ Hamler ($1.055m), Tyrell Shavers ($799k) and Zach Davidson ($799k). So those are the actual amounts that cutting MVS "costs" them. The money on MVS's contract is a sunk cost. They are on the hook for that whatever they do. Is $1m the difference between signing even a useful depth guy late in the year or not? Unlikely. Agree on Claypool and Hamler though. They have not shown anything to make me think they are preferable options and Claypool has been nicked up which hasn't helped his cause.

Daboll was a better OC than Dorsey. I actually said when he was in the running for jobs I never loved him as a HC hire. Again - didn't think he had the temperament for it.

I'm not persuaded Watson is going to bounce back at this stage but I think he is still likely better than Wilson. Wilson has been absolute trash the past two years.

Think they have said they are out....

Controversial view, I'd still trade Deebo to pay Aiyuk if it was me. But Deebo is such a specific Shanahan offense piece I can see why they aren't doing that.

Presumably it is a "minimum" of 4 games?

Agree on the New England loss. That was a disaster class from McDermott. The worst defensive gameplan of this entire regime IMO. I thought he should have handed over playcalling at that point because he wasn't doing either job particularly well. He managed to find his groove later in the year and the defense played really well down the stretch until the injuries ripped the entire second level outta the side. That said, it doesn't change my view at all on Dorsey. He was a good time coach. When things were going well they kept on rolling. Once they hit a road bump he looked over his head and the offense looked miserable. It wasn't just inconsistent or failing to finish off drives... there were entire halves where they could barely move the ball. I have met plenty of those types of coaches in my life. The guys who are great in the good times but struggle to lead in adversity and I think Ken Dorsey exhibited some of those traits.

Yea it is a numbers game. Saturday will be instructive as to where the edge guys are in the competition based on who plays and in what rotation but from the reports I have seen of camp Toohill has struggled for time with the 1s.

They carried 4 a few times, definitely. They also had one year they just carried Gronk and Hernandez and ran the most 12 in the league (think it was the 2nd Superbowl loss to the Giants year from memory). So there is that.

I think it is better for Josh. I don't think he is great in bitty scenarios. He always seems better when he has his feel for the game.

I think max two of those 6 is getting cut. Possibly one of the tight ends and Hardy only if he fails to win the return job. There is a route to all 6 making it IMO.

I know you are a Dorsey fan because he was a 'cane but I don't think he had the temprament for the job. Being a coach you have to learn to lead through failure, because it comes to us all. And as I said at the time when he lost his ***** in Miami that reeks of a lack of control. I imagine when thing started to go south for the offense he was zero fun to be around. It is in moments of failure (and every coach in every sport has them) that your leadership really gets tested. The players on offense looked miserable as hell in that period. If Dorsey struggled to control his emotions with them that probably played a part in them looking like they had the weight of the world on their shoulders.

Wow. Hadn't heard that. It is a big change. Hopefully ends the "hang about in the car park" cuts we used to get each year with a vet not subject to waivers.

I think Stef going is part of that but I think Dorsey was too. I was never convinced post his temper tantrum at Miami and then the offense all looked miserable by the time he was fired. I'm not sure he had the energy and the vibe they wanted in that room.

If that is true that is a very significant change. That you can IR before cuts and it doesn't mean they are done for the year.

I think he does need some time but I'd rather give him one decent crack to get into rhythm. I am not sure 6 to 10 plays in week 1 of pre season and then 10 to 15 week 2 is the best method for ramping a guy like Josh up. I'd rather he play one full half, and preferrably after the rest of the offensive starters have had a run out week 1 to get themselves going a bit.

Meh. I don't think you can run scared of pre-season opponents.

I'd rather just play him into (and possibly the whole of) the second quarter next week. Personally I don't think Josh at the Jets last year was about rust so much as it was about Josh getting in Josh's head.

Yes. But not Josh. I'd give the starters two series each with the exception of Josh and possibly Ed Oliver.

I love Grable as a prospect but I think he is very much developmental. I can't imagine them going with four backups who have zero NFL starts between them. That just does not feel like something this staff would do. They'd do something to get a vet in if they think Collins and Clapp are not the answer.

I happen to agree Collins is washed. I was saying it two years ago when the media was hailing him as an upgrade for the Bengals line. He is done. But they are almost certain to keep one vet backup IMO. It could be someone not yet on the roster. But if it is Collins or Clapp I lean Collins for his ability to play tackle (because Van Demark is a bit of a left tackle specialist, he looked MUCH less comfortable last pre-season when asked to try the right side). The problem for Davidson is not the smooth and speedy stuff. It is the other stuff. When you are a third tight end having some ability to block and play special teams is pretty much a pre-requisite. His best chance to stick is as a 4th tight end IMO at the expense of a receiver and I think that IS very much in play.

Haha they were counted in my working out and my numbers. I had just forgotten to write them in. That's the problem with doing between meetings I have now edited. Hamler isn't gonna make the roster.

Okay I'm going to have a stab.... pre-season games can change things but what we have learned from this regime it rarely does. They value training camp much more than making plays with vanilla scheming in pre-season games. Though it often is the forum in which people solidify perceptions - Van Demark last year who had a strong camp and then was excellent on pre-season being the example. Would they have been comfortable going with him as their primary LT backup without seeing him block in pads in pre-season? Possibly not. Essentially pre-season games tell us (the fans) what they are thinking and what their pecking order is but it changes less than you sometimes imagine in terms of production in those games affecting roster decisions. So with all that said, here goes: QB (2): Josh Allen, Mitch Trubisky FB (1): Reggie Gilliam RB (3): James Cook, Ray Davis, Ty Johnson TE (3): Dalton Kincaid, Dawson Knox, Quintin Morris* WR (6): Keon Coleman, Curtis Samuel, Khalil Shakir, Mack Hollins, Marquez Valdez-Scantling, Tyrell Shavers OL (9): Dion Dawkins, Connor McGovern, David Edwards, O'Cyrus Torrence, Spencer Brown, Ryan Van Demark, Alec Anderson, Sedrick Van Pran-Granger, La'el Collins** Offense Total: 24 DT (4): Ed Oliver, DaQuan Jones, Austin Johnson, DeWayne Carter DE (6): Greg Rousseau, AJ Epenesa, Von Miller, Dawuane Smoot, Kingsley Jonathan, Javon Solomon*** LB (5): Matt Milano, Terrel Bernard, Dorian Williams, Baylon Spector, Edefuan Ulofoshio**** CB (6): Rasul Douglas, Christian Benford, Taron Johnson, Kaiir Elam, Ja'Marcus Ingram, Daequan Hardy***** S (5): Taylor Rapp, Mike Edwards, Cole Bishop, Cam Lewis, Damar Hamlin****** Defense Total: 26 ST (3): Tyler Bass (K), Sam Martin (P), Reid Ferguson (LS) Special Teams Total: 3 Okay explanations: * - the third Tight End. I know Davidson has made some plays in camp and so in a sense he is the sexy choice here. And he might make it. But your third tight end has to play special teams, and big body blockers are even more of a priority for teams with the new rules. Morris is a really solid special teamer, is definitely the more reliable blocker as of now and has shown he can play when given opportunities too. This could flip though as I suspect the Bills feel like they could sneak whoever the loser of the competition is through to the PS and there is even a chance they keep four tight ends at the expense of a 6th receiver. ** - the ninth offensive lineman. I think this comes down to a straight fight between Will Clapp and La'el Collins. Why? Because the Bills depth options otherwise are Van Demark, Anderson, and VPG with zero career starts between them. I think they like all three of those guys a lot but will want at least one vet. I lean Collins because he can play tackle and guard (though is not the player he was) and they already have Anderson and VPG who can cover at center. I will say this, even if they keep 10 I don't think BOTH vets make it. If they keep a 10th it will be Tylan Grable and that will only be if they don't feel they can sneak him through to the PS. *** - the defensive end rotation. I feel strongly that they will not want to lose either Kinglsey Jonathan or Javon Solomon. If they were sure about Von's status and readiness they'd just have him, Groot and AJE and then Jonathan and Solomon would rotate as the 4th guy. But the uncertainty about Von means they signed Smoot and he will have some value as an upgrade on the role Shaq Lawson has played here the past two years. Which means I think they have to allocate six roster spots to the position. **** - the 5th linebacker. The Bills normally keep five. Milano, Bernard and Williams are locks. I think Spector's demonstration late last year that he can play on defense and his specialism on special teams makes him closer to a lock than most think. Which leaves one spot. Ulofoshio's rib issue bears watching and he might get the old Brandon Beane redshirt injury treatment, but if he doesn't I think he makes it and they rely on getting Nicholas Morrow or Deion Jones through to the PS as their vet there which is what they did last year with Christian Kirksey and then AJ Klein. ***** - the 6th cornerback. I think the five true corner slots are locked down. Elam has had some run with the ones in camp so I think the trade him during pre-season scenario that some speculated about is now off the table. Ingram has had by all reports a good camp has played a bit of nickel as well as being their clear 4th outside guy and is a classic developmental UDFA story that this staff has had plenty of. Daequan Hardy makes it as nominally a "sixth" corner but is really here because he looks like winning the returner job. ****** - the safety situation. If Bishop and Edwards had been healthy all camp and able to properly learn this defense the Bills would keep four safeties and Lewis v Hamlin would be a genuine roster spot battle. But with those two missing so much time and being behind the 8ball in terms of learning this defense I suspect both Lewis and Hamlin are in for now as vets that have played in and understand the scheme. I think in-season one of them probably shakes loose at some point. But to go into week 1 I think they will carry an extra body here. There you go. I'll update after the pre-season games but for now this is my prediction.

I am on record I'd have kept him and released Douglas. We will see how that plays out. I understand why the Bills went the other way.

I think when Brandon Beane says he will "never apologise" for prioritising the defensive front seven that is because he means it. It is how he was taught in Carolina. It is how he has drafted. It is how he would draft regardless of who the coach was if he, as he is here, is in charge of personnel decisions.