GunnerBill

Untrue.

I think he is looking at roughly 4 years; $60m; $30m guaranteed and $15m AAV. I mean Carl Lawson got $15m AAV for three seasons three years ago from the Jets on the back of two 5 sack seasons. Sure he had 8.5 as a rookie too, but I think teams will look at Epenesa and what the Bills did with him and be willing to ignore the production in his first two years as pretty irrelevant. The guy who is going to really cash in this offseason is Bryce Huff. Spotrac has him at $9.2m AAV. Man for that money I'd love the Bills to sign him. I suspect he will be in the same range as AJE personally. I still don't understand how that kid went undrafted.

That is what they normally try and do to limit the competitive disadvantage to others of having to hang on for the result of the later game. But then this is a season where the NFL was happy to have a team who'd been in London a matter of hours play one that had been there well over a week in the name of "experimentation" so you know, anything is possible!

I'm not sure that's my description of the Bills. I think the Bills are a good team who still stand above the average parity level of the league but who are capable of shooting themselves in one or both feet at any moment. On the days when the Bills are able to get out of their own way they blow teams away. Good teams as well as bad. They just need to avoid the self destruct button for six games and they could legitimately win a Lombardi. But we have struggled to string clean games together for a long time now.

While Cook got credited with two fumbles the first his knee was down. Had the Bills lost that it would have been overturned on review. But absolutely it still illustrates the point re. Irresponsibility with the football.

I think a drop from Hill to Pittman means multiple wins for the Dolphins. They are like a 7 maybe 8 win team in that scenario. It isn't just the plays Hill makes. It is what he does to everyone else on the field. In a year where there hasn't been a standout QB and where the league has been more weapon focussed there is no more impactful skill position player in the NFL than Hill. So he is my MVP vote.

And the 5 is a real longshot. We are almost certainly #2 or #6 / #7

They are already in their second run. Only 5 players started both their 2019 Superbowl win and their 2022 Superbowl win: Mahomes, Kelce, Jones, Nnadi and Frank Clark (since gone). That Superbowl last year should have been the birth of a new team and was in part a result of a 2-3 years of really good drafting. But they have made some bad personnel decisions in the last 12 months. They have mismanged the offensive skill positions and the offensive tackle spots and it is coming back to hurt them.

But we are a game up on the Jags and we can only win the division by winning out? So we can't tie with them surely? I think now one win is more likely than not enough.

And the #5 is almost certainly out because we'd need the Browns to lose out as they have a 2 game conference record lead so in a world where we win out but Miami beats Baltimore we'd need Cleveland to lose both (which I can't see) to have them at 10-7 and us at 11-6. If we have equal records they have the tiebreaker. So real terms it is #2 or #6 or #7 or miss out altogether. Wacky.

Yea we need Stef back to his best. I thought he was exceptional on Saturday FWIW. I know they didn't target him a ton but it was his best game for a while. And yea, Ed has been elite this year.

Basically if we win the division we will be the #2, right? In that scenario we are 11-6 and the only other 11-6 division winner is the Chiefs where we have the H2H? There is no scenario is there where we can be the #3?

The thing I said for weeks is the Bills were still in it because of the unreliability of who was ahead of them - a young Texans team (and then Stroud gets hurt), a Bengals team with a backup QB and Chase hurt, the Colts who to be honest I am shocked have won as many as they have, the Jags who are mental midgets under pressure, Denver whose QB is still an issue, Cleveland who have a legit D but are on their 4th QB. It was always likely 1 or maybe 2 of them stuck on down the stretch like the Browns have. But for 3 of those 6 to be consistent was always highly unlikely IMO.

No he isn't. His contract with 5th year option runs 2 more years. And Miami will keep him beyond that too. He will become the number 1 as Hill ages out.

I think he is most likely winner. My point isn't really about who will win. It is more about trying to get under the skin of some of the arguments. I am a Lamar fan and long since have been. But to me an MVP Quarterback with 19 passing touchdowns after 15 games is kinda mad. But it has been a messy year. I stick with my view I'd vote for Hill if I had a vote.

I don't think you ever sacrifice getting better playoff seeding this year for an easier schedule next year but I do think since they added the 17th game and there are now 3 games on the schedule that are determined by position the previous year rather than 2 it definitely feels like a bigger advantage in a tight division race.

Just to update the netting off TDs minus turnovers point after last night. Just two left at the top: Josh Allen and Dak Prescott both +22. Purdy drops to +18. Not saying that metric is the be all and end all by the way. But it is something if (and all rational people think this) the biggest obstacle to Josh winning MVP is that he leads the league in turnovers.

I mean we did try and tell them.... that fanbase had an irrational hatred for Orlando Brown. At one point they were telling us Taylor would be a better left tackle than Brown. In fairness Taylor has been worse at RT than I expected. But LT I knew they were going to suck.

It is the league leading INTs. I have actually been back to look if any MVP QB this century has thrown as many as 15 picks. Manning threw 16 in 2009, but they went 14-0 before dropping their last two. Warner threw 22(!) in 2001 but again in a 14-2 season. And neither led the league in INTs. I then also did a netting off.... if you net off Josh's TDs (40) against his total turnovers (18) he ends up +22. If you do the same for Purdy he is +22. If you do the same for Dak he is +22. Everyone else is way off that. So there is a case those three just in sheer touchdowns minus turnover calculations should be it. That said... I am on record I'd vote for Tyreek Hill this year myself. I think it has been the year of the plamaker over the year of the Quarterback. And I'd reflect that in my vote.

The rules say they have to interview others so I think they will run a process. But Brady has to be the clubhouse leader.

The "let's go Cowboys" at the start of the Phins final drive was very audible.

After the results this week I feel increasingly good about getting in with 1 more win. Which last week I felt was a slim chance.

He has been the OC for 5 games.

It 100% does.

My other half knows all too well to consult me on Arsenal and Bills schedules before booking anything in at weekends during the season. I will very occasionally prioritise other things over a game, but that is my call to make. If you don't like that, there's the door. Jog on.