GunnerBill

Yea I'd say #4 is a stretch too. But not a huge one. Somewhere 7-12 feels right. Philly, Detroit, Indy and Atlanta feel hard to argue with. Then I think Dallas, the Rams, Baltimore, Buffalo and the Vikings would be my next group. I think Houston was a top 10 line before the injury bug hit too. They have struggled down the stretch though with guys getting hurt and more backups having to play.

Dak? I mean sure he scrambles now and then. But I wouldn't put him in the Allen, Jackson, Hurts category. They are weapons when they run. Dak isn't a statue. But he is a pocket Quarterback.

It is for one who has had persistent knee and back issues. Body is broken down IMO. Doesn't move even close to as well as he used to.

Yep. He went undrafted having been considered a day 2 pick when stories emerged too late in the process for teams to investigate. Rex put on the full press but Collins signed for Dallas and went on to be part of the best Oline in football the next 2 or 3 seasons. He isn't that guy anymore.

Agreed. Al was great. But he has always fely like he is half assing it on Prime. Herbstreet is so low energy. The combo doesn't work. We all end up bored.

The New England game was totally on defense. The other games in that spell honestly there was plenty of blame to go around.

Ha. Possibly not quite. Bobby freaking Hart.

I think he is washed. He certainly looked it last year with the Bengals.

I am not arguing our line is elite. It isn't at that standard. But it is a good line. Easily the best Josh has had. Borderline top 10. EDIT: I'd say of the perceived "contenders" only the Eagles and Lions are better. Ravens and Cowboys on a par.

But Allen has been there the past 2 years too. The oline isn't perfect but it is muuuuuch better. It has been a top half of the league line this year. Every metric tells you that and the eye test confirms it.

The oline isn't elite, for sure. But it has been much, much better. We haven't lost a single game this year where I would say the oline was one of the biggest contributory factors. Which given the last two years is a huge improvement.

They traded one away. Bateman was a bad pick I said that at the time, and it had been compounded by his constant injuries. Flowers is a talent - he is - but he isn't a true #1 receiver type. He is more the chess piece space move receiver. I think the Ravens weapons this year are fine, certainly compared to past years, but they are not stellar and Andrews his unquestionable #1 has been out. EDIT: and I repeat I say this as someone who does not thing Lamar has any serious business being considered the MVP front runner. He has had a fine season. He is not the MVP.

Hmm. I mean he has done some monumentally dumb things in his time. Lining up in the wrong spots. It is that level of basics that I am not sure they trust him with. And to be honest nor would I. Again, had they given him some more run earlier in the year, fair enough. But having not I wouldn't be chucking him out there now.

He is definitely getting more than that. You are not wrong about the run and his edge setting but his pass rush production the last season and a half is going to get him paid.

Agree. Lamar has had a good year. He had played well on a good team. There has been some development in his decision making as they have asked him to more full field reads which tbh I had always been a bit sceptical on him doing. But he has 19 passing touchdowns in 15. That isn't MVP territory.

Leaving aside the off-field which I am not getting embroiled in there are two questions here: 1. What is the right play for the rest of this season? I think it is to keep Von at around a third of the defensive snaps simply as a rotational option to give Floyd, AJE and Rousseau a blow. Shaq has that 4th DE role on early downs, Von has it on passing downs. But ultimately game on the line situations I'd want AJ and Floyd as the guys out there rushing. I appreciate there is an option to sit Von down altogether and throw Kingsley Jonathan out there but such an inexperienced, raw, football player in big moments would worry me and it would worry the top brass. We can talk should they have go him more run earlier so that he was somewhat ready for that spot now, but they didn't and it is what it is. 2. What is the right play for next season? The reality is he isn't tradeable so it is a clear decision between keep or cut. If they are cutting him they are designating it as a post 1 June cut for relatively obvious reasons, to cut him without that designation means he carries a $32.5m dead cap hit in 2024 and actually costs about $8.5m MORE on next year's cap than if he stayed. The post 1 June cut would result in a dead cap hit in 2024 of $17m, but a cap SAVING compared to him being on the team, of $6.8m. It also carries a cap hit of $15m for 2025. HOWEVER, that dead cap would exist if, as was originally envisaged, he played 3 years and was then cut. So I have to think the Bills have been planning for that $15m dead cap hit to exist ever since they signed Von. So all they really lose by cutting him a year early in that sense is the ability to spread the $15m over two years rather than it all escalate onto the 2025 cap. Basically if you are still following this at home the question is whether you think the almost $7m in cap space for a team with some work to do and a slight loss of 2025/2026 cap flexibility over the second half of the dead money is worth cutting a player who is paid like a difference maker and at the moment is no more than a semi-functional backup. My gut tells me unless Von suddenly becomes Von in the next 2 weeks (and hopefully playoff run) he is done with the Bills after this season.

If Josh never throws the INT against the Eagles that shifted momenutm the Bills win that game and Josh is the front runner. I am not saying he was the reason we lost. He wasn't. But when we talk about the interceptions we talk about them in the abstract. Whereas that one had a specific impact in the W-L column.

I agree he will find a home. He will start a season somewhere next year. Whether he finishes it I am less convinced. Depends on the team and where they are at. He played okay against the Bills. Really well in the win against Minnesota. Other than that... meh.

Russ is done. Finished. Toast. His stats this year are a mirage. I have watched a lot of the Broncos. I think I have seen him play well once. The Broncos have just acknowledged the reality.

Ahhh yes. He did. That's right. Not sure it was the next game but was like 2 games away.

Hmmm. If he had two rings he would be a shoe in. I still lean towards yes. But it is an interesting question. All the well connected Broncos reporters are saying that decision is made.

I conclude they have conceded the playoffs. Taken the correct decision that Russell Wilson is cooked and so don't want to be on the hook for a single additonal penny beyond what they already are. If they had beaten New England this move doesn't get made. And they had the chance too - not for the first time Russ couldn't get it done.

Or both. I imagine they will push really hard to re-sign Floyd to a similar deal as this year, if Jones can get back and show he can still play I expect a 1 year deal there and Beane loves him some Jordan Phillips for some reason. Shaq will take his usual vet minimum type deal and compete for a back of the roster spot to play his very specific base end vs heavy run teams role. I imagine 2024 EDGE: Rousseau Von Floyd Shaq Jonathan Rookie 2024 DT: Oliver Jones Phillips Rookie Very few. But a team signing AJE needs to be comfortable that his production will escalate pro-rata if you have him out there say 65% rather than 45%. That is the element of risk.

Which game was that?

And Trent was coming off a year out injured at the time and only had 1 year of production compared to AJE's 2. Honestly a lot of it depends on the top two guys on the market: Brian Burns and Josh Allen. If one or both of them hit the market it will depress things for the next tier which is probably Chase Young and Danielle Hunter and then after that the likes of Danna, Epenesa and Huff (possibly Uche too but he is so scheme specific). But if, as I expect, Burns and Allen stay put..... well then suddenly a team needing a pass rush boost other than the usual suspect vets - Clowney and Ngakoue etc - is going to be looking hard at guys like Epenesa and Huff who have good level of production as situational players and trying to project that into a starting role.