GunnerBill

Shakir had 800 odd. But he is what he is. A good complimentary piece. Not a feature guy

Yea I don't disagree that his biggest "reach" against draft media consensus was Elam. Although Elam was definitely a guy teams liked more than the talking heads. I remember the Athletic doing a piece a couple of years ago in which Brett Veach said if they couldn't get up for McDuffie he was Kansas City's fall back option. It was a case of the draft media being smarter than teams.

I believe that study was about predicting where guys get drafted, which is different from evaluation. Mocking is different than evaluating. Mocking is where you can use contacts and knowledge about what teams are thinking to build your mock. You mention Walter Football - they are second because Charlie Campbell, as their main guy, has great sources. Mel is still one of the best at that for the same reason - his sources are great.

Imagine his experience is attractive to them as much as an extra pair of eyes in the passing game. Schotty has put together a very young and inexperienced offensive staff. A first time cooardinator supported by a QB coach and an Oline coach that have never coached at the NFL level before, and the running backs coach has only done so for 3 years. Basically in terms of experience on the offensive side it will be the tight end coach and Dorsey. It is genuinely surprising to me how much a guy who has been around the league as long as Schotty has struggled putting together a staff. Even the Eberflus hire as DC (whichh I do think was a good one) allegedly was made by Jerry rather than Schotty.

I recall mentioning Brown as a potential target going into FA last year. He'd have been higher up my list than Samuel purely on the fact that he gives you more vertical ability than Curtis and that what I thought, and still think, this offense seriously lacks. That said Brown had a negative (coming off a career low year) and Samuel had a positive (success previously with Brady) and I know that when you are sitting in a personnel office making those decisions factors like that matter. Brown then got hurt and only made an impact right at the end of the year so I am not seeking to relitigate that decision as a "reason" for the Bills not getting past the Chiefs or anything, but if the Bills are WR hunting in FA this year it HAS to be a guy who can play on the boundary and can win vertically. Everything else should be secondary considerations.

I broadly agree with the premise. In 2021, the year they lost Tre on Thanksgiving, the Bills defense was: 1st in the NFL in yards 1st in points 1st in 3rd down % 1st in points per drive That D had a prime age elite corner for 2/3s of the season in White (26) and then Milano (27), Johnson (24), Hyde (30) and Poyer (29) fully healthy and in their peak performance window. Their rankings on defense have gradually worsened as that talent pool has suffered serious injuries (to White, Hyde and Milano) and aged out (Hyde and Poyer). 2022: 2nd in points 6th in yards 7th in 3rd down % 5th in points per drive 2023: 4th in points 9th in yards 19th in 3rd down % 7th in points per drive 2024: 11th in points 17th in yards 29th in 3rd down % 18th in points per drive I am on record as saying when Frazier stepped away that they would get worse on defense, and there was definitely an impact in that on what happened in 2023 and 2024, but the reality is the defensive performance has declined as the talent pool on defense has declined. They were at a point in 2022 pre-Tre's injury where they had one elite player and four very good ones in the back 7. As that has slowly been chipped away at the impact on performance has been clear. Interestingly the 3rd down drop off also coincides with the departure of Edmunds. And while I totally agreed with the decision to let him walk and he lacked splash impact plays... his length definitely helped on 3rd down where opposing QBs would see him sinking in the middle of the field and go away from him. Bernard makes more plays but to QB surveying the defense on 3rd and medium he isn't the same disincentive to throw in the middle of the field.

Physically, yes. But his identification of pressure was seriously impressive. I think fewer than half a dozen QBs in the league could have identified the pressure and adjusted protections as well as he did. That has always been Hurts' super power. He isn't the most accurate thrower of a football ever, he is a bit "see it, throw it" rather than someone who throws guys open but he works so hard and is so prepared. That boy had watched tons of tape of KC. It was really evident. There wasn't a blitz in Spags' bag he hadn't seen before on film and wasn't prepared for.

Yea. It was a mistake. But it is never one mistake.

And to be clear if it's going up like 2 or 3 spots (an Elam / Kincaid trade up) if he gets to 27 or something, sure, I'm all in. But I think his floor is Pittsburgh at #20 and I don't think he is of a the "worth giving away a second round pick" level in terms of both his ability and his fit for this team.

Agree with that. Lurie disempowered Howie once when he hired the ego maniac from Oregon who wrecked the roster in 2 years. He will never make that mistake again.

Absolutely not. But he does work for HANDS DOWN the best General Manager in football. The gap between Howie and #2 on that list is probably as big as the gap from #2 to #32. He is that far ahead.

Yea they pressed more than the Bills and then bailed into zone. But they didn't do that every play and the Bills did press some last week (although most of their press did come in man coverage). But I think by far the biggest difference was they have Darius Slay and the Quinyon Mitchell at corner we played most of the game with a has been and a never has been. Oh and they are just better up front. I think Philly had a great plan but they had great players too.

And Philly didn't play much man coverage. It was predominantly zone and some press bail technique.

The played a bit more press than the Bills (they have two elite corners, it helps) but it is not the case that the Bills played no press in the AFCCG and the Eagles played all press last night. The two biggest difference between their D succeeding and ours failing was: 1. They played their defense and we played something other than our defense in an attempt to change it up. 2. By far the biggest: talent.

The reason I didn't have Mahomes as the all world talent he has become coming out was his feet. They were a mess at Texas Tech, Reid spent his rookie year essentially re-teaching him footwork and every now and again when he feels stress they fall apart again.

Agree. Although obviously we don't know if they'd have swung on Carter. It's speculation.

I understood it because LT is so much more important. Ultimately at the NFL level when you are that bad at one of the premium spots - QB, boundary receiver, pass rusher, outside corner, left tackle - eventually it catches up with you. Although Reid refusing to run the ball on those first 3 or 4 drives before it got out of hand to slow the Philly rush down and possibly open up some play action opportunities was baffling. If might not have worked but it was evident straight away that the Oline could not hold up if that became a pure dropback football game.

Well Basham was a bigger dude. How did that work? It isn't about scheme, or small vs big, it is about talent evaluation and they haven't found enough difference makers because they haven't evaluated talent well enough. Simple as that.

Beane is all in on process guys too. Trust me coach and GM are in total alignment on that. I fear you might be right on Jalen Carter though. The 8 NFL GMs who let that guy get to 9 (even in a decent top 10) should hang their heads in shame. Disagree. I think it is the players and then the last two years (particularly this year) I think the gameplanning and the playcalling and the adjustments have been questionable. That is distinct from the scheme, but more the way they are trying to execute it.

Suamataia couldn't play left tackle in college. Imagining he'd be able to in the NFL was a predictable fail. Bolton, Smith, Reid are big players for them and I'm sure they'd love to keep Hollywood and one of their 1Ts (Wharton or Nnadi). I imagine Reid walks and Jordan Hicks gets a shot at the job after playing well in spot duty as a rook. They might be able to get Wharton back on a cheap deal and I think they will try to retain Bolton. But they definitely have some tough decisions to make and they MUST absolutely MUST find a way to acquire a proper left tackle.

The worst case scenario for me was losing a Superbowl to Philly. Losing a Superbowl would suck whatever. But losing to that franchise... man that would have properly depressed me.

I won a bet on Worthy and AJ Brown both to score! Was the bright point of the night.

Yea Philly are the best combined trenches team in football. And it is ALWAYS where Howie starts his team builds from. In fairness nobody could accuse Brandon Beane of ignoring the Dline. He has poured resources into it. He just hasn't gotten it right in the way Howie has.

It is interesting because I saw Nick Wright last week saying "look the Bills will beat KC in the playoffs at some point, it will happen, I am just not sure they will be able to get up again after it because that will be lile their Superbowl." Well turns out it is the same for them beating us. The reality is we always seem to get KCs best shot in the playoffs. They used plays in the AFCCG in two critical spots that they have not run all year. They put a hell of a lot into beating the Bills. Maybe Nick Wright's argument works the other way too.

The only way it plays out differently if it is the Bills is if they'd got ahead early. But the Eagles are built to front run. The moment the DeJean pick 6 happened it was over. You are not digging out of a 17-0 hole against that team. But to be honest I think Buffalo would have lost too. That Philly roster is just too darn talented. I can't ever remember a Superbowl where I thought "that was so explicitly a General Manager victory". Although with a large side helping of Vic Fangio.