GunnerBill

Bengals D can't stop anyone.

Forbes doesn't fit our scheme. I quite liked him coming out because he had a pretty unique skillset. Fair to say the Commanders scheme change has hurt but similar to Elam he is someone who has value in man coverage in a league that every year seems to lean more and more into zone heavy coverage. Also worth saying that in that class I thought Witherspoon, Gonzalez and Porter were bona fide studs and should have been the first 3 corners off the board and all have been great. The rest all had question marks - Forbes (was my CB4), Banks (my CB5) and then Cam Smith (my CB7), DJ Turner (my CB9), JuJu Brents (my CB12), Tyrique Stevenson (my CB10).... that entire "second tier" has struggled. You have to do down to Garrett Williams (my CB14) who went early 3rd - but I had a late 3rd grade - on to the Cardinals to find the next "success" certainly as an outside guy. My CB6 was Clark Phillips III and he has been good for the Falcons but as a slot only whereas I thought despite his size you might get a bit of outside flex with him.

This is plain wrong IMO. The disrespect Benford gets is because he is a 6th round pick, but he is super talented and going to get paid. He isn't the best corner in the NFL, that's true. But by almost any metric he has been a top 10 boundary corner in the league this year and some of that is him flat out making plays, like that exceptional pass breakup to Hopkins against the Chiefs. It is more than just "he knows the scheme and is always in the right position." People presume because he was a 6th round pick he is just another Levi Wallace or Dane Jackson redux. He isn't, talent wise he is much closer to Tre White (not quite as talented as Tre but close) than he is to those other guys. He is going to get PAID either this offseason by the Bills or next offseason as a free agent.

Benford flat beat him out in camp last summer. Even before Elam was hurt. He lost that competition fair and square and that was coming into it with a lead after ending their rookie years the stronger of the two - as you say. Elam's biggest issue in a zone defense is still what it was coming out. His transitions are clunky and at this stage I gotta imagine the Bills have done whatever they can to tidy the technique up.. but his transitions still just aren't as good as Tre White, Benford, Douglas even Dane Jackson. And in a heavy zone scheme that is just hard to overcome despite all the things Elam can offer that some of those other guys can't.

I think there as a risk of Josh failing and it was that a team either: a) tried to hide his weaknesses in the development phase and didn't expose him to things. As you say the Bills did not do that; or b) they tired of the mistakes and pulled the plug on the development right before the break out happened. I think a) was the bigger of the two risks and it is why I give Daboll credit. I don't think he is responsible for Josh Allen or anything like that... Josh's talent is responsible... but Daboll developed a guy like Josh absolutely the right way. No stabilisers. There is a world IMO where a team tried the alternative approach of hiding him early, then got frustrated because the ceiling appeared lower and gave up only to see him succeed somewhere else. I think that is sort of what happened with Baker in Cleveland. They installed an offense to try and prop him up rather than truly develop him and as a result they never got the ceiling version of Baker that Tampa are now enjoying. Josh is better and more talented than Baker, no question, but the risk of a similar career arc was there IMO. It seems to me that of the two Schoen is the one more likely on the hotseat. They should either keep them both or fire them both though. Mismatching regimes rarely works.

He has always been one of the most aggresive coaches in the NFL on 4th down since Josh broke out in 2020. We are actually 5-1 against the Chiefs in the regular season, but you know..... stats... In the 2020 Conference Championship game McDermott kicked FGs instead of going for it. He hasn't made that mistake again.

How's the snow?

Yes there are. But you can't call those 35 times a game and ultimately when playing a heavy man team the tariff on your outside guys winning 1 on 1 5 or 6 times in the game is higher and that tends to be why the better offenses v man tend line up with better receiver talent.

Neither QB is on the injury report. Odd.

I mean it really wasn't. He threw two passes then stopped throwing on Wednesday. At that point it was anything other than obvious. Friday was the first proper practice he had all week.

That Eagles game Shady went OFF if I remember correctly?

Eberflus's instinct that you keep the clock running, call a play, get another 5 or 6 yards then call time out was correct. But it was clear at 22/21 seconds that Caleb was panicking. At that stage any HC worth his salt steps in, calls time out, gives himself 30/40 seconds to calm his QB down and work out what to do. 21 seconds, slant for 5 or 6 yards and run on the FG team is an option. Of you try and find something to the sideline.

The late, great, Brian Clough - a soccer coach from the UK in the 70s and 80s who made a small provincial club two time champions of Europe - always wanted his players to get married young because he thought it settled them down. I don't know that I totally buy Cloughie's theory but there is no doubt in my mind that Josh Allen is in a better place mentally now than he was two years ago. I really think the personal life turmoil affected his play in late 2022. I think he is playing the best football of his career and if this relationship is part of it then long may it continue.

Also depends what he thinks of Caleb. Because if you think Caleb is good (and there have been flashes as a rookie) then there is a good chance to win quickly in Chicago. The downside is it is a very tough division. I think the Lions and the Packers are the two best teams in the conference and Minnesota has talent and is well coached.

Probably because Kyle Shanahan lies about injuries more than any coach in football. That said I do think Purdy is going to give it a go.

Does look like Purdy is gonna give it a go but on the flip side: Lenoir, Williams and Bosa all officially out. Unless the weather makes it a lottery gsne the Bills will win.

Again?

Exactly where I am.

Yea, the Eagles are a better matchup against the Lions. Fair play to Fangio he has turned that D around after the first 3 weeks. But I do think the Packers are better Quarterbacked and better coached than the Eagles. They just matchup less well against the Lions. He is definitely building it. He has done enough already this year despite suffering injuries and missing 3 games to back up his breakout year last year. I think if I was picking an NFC Quarterback to start a franchise with tomorrow it is an absolute no brainer I'd pick Jordan Love. Nah that's way too simplistic. Tua has thrown down the field plenty the last two years and it isn't like everything to Smith is short. The Dolphins are struggling to find a way to get their two best players the ball, and while I don't absolve Tua totally of blame, I think it is more on coaching struggling to adjust to the new rules and the way teams are defending them. That is definitely a factor. The two guys they lose up front in the offseason, plus Armstead's ever increasing frailty (his play has actually declined as well) is not helping. Their cap situation is rough too, they are mortgaged to the hilt. Agree with this. I don't think their defense is very good. I have said it repeatedly. I was just making the point that as ever bald stats don't tell the entire tale. In the Dolphins case DVOA was much closer to the truth on their defense than anything else. I don't agree. Winning out and being 10-7 isn't totally off the table. the path is narrow, but there is a path.

I don't have a rooting interest in college football. I root for unpredictability, I root for competition. I root against college football dynasties. I don't think the Alabama domination of the 2010s was good for the sport. I like this unpredictable era.

So I think there are a few things going on with Hill: 1. Tua earlier in his career especially was very susceptible to pressure so teams would blitz him a ton and try and man up on the backend but increasingly now teams are playing more cover 2 shell against Miami - as they do to the Buffalos and Kansas Citys of the world and trying to take the deeper balls away. 2. I do think there are signs that Hill has slowed a little but he is still dynamic enough and Waddle definitely hasn't slowed do the failure to get him involved too suggests it is more than just a decline in Hill's speed that is the issue. 3. The rule change that took away the cheat motion has affected Miami more than any other team. Covering Hill and Waddle with a running start was all but impossible. 4. I think they are just getting a bit overly cute in their offensive design. Everything seems to have a fake or a twist, or a bit of eye candy and I think teams are almost where they got to with the Jared Goff Rams which was "ignore everything just play your assignment as though it was a straight dropback and for the 3 or 4 times a game when they do something creative off one of their motions or fakes we will live with it, they can't do that down to down." To me McDaniel has gotta get back in the lab and look at the route combination concepts they are running wit their two best players. Because having Hill and Waddle then allowing your offense to be dink and dunk with Achane and Smith is like having a Ferrari in the garage but only ever driving your Skoda.

Yea that game is not a gimme. Like I say the path for Miami still exists, but it is narrow.

I put in the gameweek thread but Williams, Bosa and Lenoi have been DNPs all week. I'd be very surprised at this stage if we see any of those three. I don't think we will see Purdy. And yea, Warner has a fractured ankle. He is playing with it.

It is not 'innovation' but I think since the middle of last year when they sort of stumbled across the dime package because of injuries at linebacker the Bills have been a bit more willing to throw different looks out there on 3rd down. I think their passing down defensive packages are a bit more varied. Under Frazier they liked to stay very much in their nickel package. The question is whether that has been successful? See the numbers below which tell you that currently our 3rd down defense numbers are the worst of the McDermott era - and in a year where generally 3rd down conversions are at the lower end of the normal range league wide. However, the injuries have played a definite part in that. Through 5 weeks while we were missing Taron and Bernard for chunks of time we were running at 44% of 3rd downs surrendered, since then, when those guys have returned to the lineup it is down to 37.5% which is much more in keeping with our previous performance. Of course we'd all settle for being slightly worse on 3rd down in the regular season if that variation and unpredictability resulted in better playoff performance. So that will bear watching. Frazier's 3rd down conversion against rankings in his time here: 2022 - 37.5% (7th in the NFL) 2021 - 30.8% (1st in the NFL) 2020 - 39.8% (13th in the NFL) 2019 - 35.8% (7th in the NFL) 2018 - 36.5% (8th in the NFL) 2017 - 38.3% (17th in the NFL) McDermott's 3rd down conversion against ranking: 2023 - 38.6% (19th in the NFL) Babich's 3rd down conversion against ranking: 2024 - 40.8% (21st in the NFL)

49ers injury report yesterday: Williams, Bose and Lenoir all still DNPs. You would think that means trending towards not playing. Purdy still reporting as "limited" but who knows what that means. I still think he is unlikely to go. The one who I do expect to play is Charvarius Ward who has been missing for personal reasons and is now back practicing.