GunnerBill

Thought I'd update my projection. My first go is here for those wanting a look. QB (2): Josh Allen, Mitch Trubisky FB (1): Reggie Gilliam RB (3): James Cook, Ray Davis, Ty Johnson TE (34) Dalton Kincaid, Dawson Knox, Quintin Morris, Zach Davidson WR (65) Keon Coleman, Curtis Samuel, Khalil Shakir, Mack Hollins, Marquez Valdez-Scantling, Tyrell Shavers OL (910) Dion Dawkins, Connor McGovern, David Edwards, O'Cyrus Torrence, Spencer Brown, Ryan Van Demark, Alec Anderson, Sedrick Van Pran-Granger, Tylan Grable, Will Clapp La'el Collins** Offense Total: 25 DT (4): Ed Oliver, DaQuan Jones, Austin Johnson, DeWayne Carter DE (65) Greg Rousseau, AJ Epenesa, Von Miller, Dawuane Smoot, Kingsley Jonathan, Javon Solomon LB (5): Matt Milano, Terrel Bernard, Dorian Williams, Baylon Spector, Edefuan Ulofoshio, Joe Andreessen CB (6): Rasul Douglas, Christian Benford, Taron Johnson, Kaiir Elam, Ja'Marcus Ingram, Daequan Hardy S (5): Taylor Rapp, Mike Edwards, Cole Bishop, Cam Lewis, Damar Hamlin Defense Total: 25 ST (3): Tyler Bass (K), Sam Martin (P), Reid Ferguson (LS) Special Teams Total: 3 Summary of changes: 1. Zach Davidson in, Tyrell Shavers out. I just don't see a 6th receiver who deserves to make the roster. To be honest I'm not sure I see a 5th receiver who deserves to make it, but if the neck is clear for MVS (and it seems to be) I think they are going to err on the side of caution and he will make the team as a vet outside option. The additional spot freed up by Shavers going to the practice squad is taken by Davidson. They are going to play a lot of 12 again I think and their tight end room looks better than their receiver room. If a 6th receiver makes it then watch out for Justin Shorter who got 1st team gunner reps on Saturday. 2. Tylan Grable and Will Clapp in, La'el Collins out. Tylan Grable has made himself too big of a risk for the practice squad. He has been the best 2nd stringer lineman through two games and has shown he can play right and left side. So I add him to make the OL group 10 deep. Then Clapp for Collins is a swapping out of one vet backup for another. The rest of the OL backups have zero starts between them. I continue to believe they will keep at least one experienced guy. Collins has been awful, they have given up on the idea he can play tackle so in a straight swap of vet interior guy vs vet interior guy I lean to Clapp. Both may well end up cut if they can snag a better vet option off another roster. 3. Kingsley Jonathan out. I'm not sure about this one. Still think he could make it because they like him. But he hasn't been great in pre-season and to keep an extra OL someone has to go. Jonathan is now down to DE6 in the rotation and that is a luxury spot in terms of roster construction so he is the most vulnerable. 4. Matt Milano to designated return IR, Joe Andreessen in. Milano's bicep tear means he is headed to IR and given his experience and skill level I see no reason why the Bills wouldn't use one of their two pre-season designated to return slots on him. In his place they could keep a vet in Deion Jones or Nicholas Morrow but just looking at the way they have used guys in pre-season it looks like Andreessen has jumped those guys. He got the start with the 1st team on Saturday and is in pole position to take this spot. You are missing Spector. He is making the team.

Who? I don't see any "needed talent" at receiver spots 5,6,7.

Their third QB is the most likely guy the Bills go to if Trunisky is hurt badly - it's Kyle Allen.

Hmm. I don't think it is that different personally. I think Sutton is the best WR among the two rosters, he will be their "1" and he would be our "1" but he is really a #2. After that Josh Reynolds is a #3, Tim Patrick was a #3 but hasn't played football in two years and it remains to be seen what he is now as a 30 year old. Marvin Mims I wasn't super high on coming out, I thought he was a reach in round 2, and he still has work to do to convince me he is more than just a guy you can throw the occasional bomb to.... but he is at least theoretically a young guy with still some ceiling room there. Troy Franklin by all accounts has struggled mightily in camp and is not a lock for the roster at this stage. I give them probably a slight edge over the Bills because they have Sutton and he is legit. But if I was ranking the receivers across the two teams I'd go: 1. Sutton; 2. Samuel; 3. Shakir as my top 3. The Broncos have an edge in their depth because they have two young guys who you can optimistically still think are on the upswing, whereas we only have Coleman and then a load of guys we know are tapped out... but I wouldn't feel great about having the Broncos receivers any more than I do about having the Bills guys to be honest.

No. If it happens AFTER this season, sure, I'd be willing to consider. But when you have productive starters on rookie deals they are more valuable than draft picks. When they get to a year left and you KNOW you are not paying them (and with running backs that is a thing) then trading them does start to make a sense. But it is a year too early to think about that IMO.

If you just swapped coaches in 2021 or 2022 or maybe even last year, sure. For the Bills to knock Mahomes and the Chiefs this year even under Andy Reid? Nah. Not for me. Indeed in all Andy Reid's coaching career I can only find two examples where you can argue he won a playoff game against a team with a better Quarterback than his (not just played better on the day but overall regarded to be better). 2003 Divisional round McNabb over Farve and 2008 Divisional round McNabb over Eli. Now I get it the Mahomes to Allen gap isn't huge so maybe he can overcome and I get it that McDermott is 0fer in terms of beating teams with top level Quarterbacks in the playoffs let alone teams with better than Josh (there is only one and he is 0-3). But I dunno... this year the gap isn't just Andy to Sean. Their roster is objectively a step up on ours.

He had more than one bad play. I'm not writing him out of the 53 either. But he is now very much DE6 and that makes him vulnerable to the need to keep extra depth at any other spots.

He has only been a tackle a couple of years. He was a Quarterback in High School, turned bad college tight end. It was only when he turned to left tackle it suddenly clicked for him. He has the size, power, foot speed, hip bend and agility you look for. His technique is inconsistent but man if they can straighten it out he is a sky's the limit type.

I haven't been back and looked yet so I may well be wrong on the lack of separation point. Can only tell so much from tv but every replay angle we saw our guys looked blanketed. It is a concern. We did argue about Mitch in the spring. I take an L on this one. I think when he was here before he looked like a very functional game manager in the preseason. Okay different OC, some different skill guys (but not like all his play was with the 1s then either). He looks decidedly worse. I think his head is shot. One of the things I liked before was he could get out of trouble with his legs too and whenever he tried to move last night he ran into his own guys. It was dreadful.

It wasn't a good throw. But it is not like it was impossible to make a play on. I will give Keon the benefit that he didn't think worth taking the hit you'd take to catch it in a pre-season game. But regular season I want him to make a much better effort on that ball.

Perfect definitely oversells it. So does terrible though. Coleman should have done better with that ball. This, to the letter, is how I feel about the receiver situation right now.

Agree though don't think Cook fits the second category. He is a low impact position so that factors in but he never carried the load in college so he was a pretty low floor pick in round 2 IMO. The floor was a passing down back only.

Nor me. I thought he was a reach even at the end of round 2.

I think he could. I even think he might suit that better.

Yea he doesn't have a ton of moves. He wins on power, length and a good understanding of leverage.

I think he makes the 53. I think no more than 5 receivers conceivably have a route. So 5 WRs and 4 TEs.

I have explained it multiple times. He learned in Carolina under two GMs who taught him you draft defensive line early and often. I crunched the numbers again the other day. In his years as a senior exec with the Panthers they spent about 30% of day 1 and 2 picks on defensive line and about 50% on defensive front 7 and Beane's numbers are right around those spots too.

The list isn't a "Brandon Beane is a great GM" post. It is a last night was a good night for him. Think legit to ask questions about his inability to find true difference makers. I have been asking them for 3 years.

I do think this year, in contrast the last few, I am less concerned. I am not sure I see this as a true "window" year. It is a bit of a re-set point. The Bills have no more than an outside shot of a title. If Josh Allen goes down this year (let's all hope he doesn't) I am up for trying to get a top 10 draft pick and let Beane try and find a stud difference maker at receiver or pass rusher or tackle. This team needs more studs. It did (although think was earlier the same day rather than the day before).

Picking the bones out of last week wasn't fun, but I contributed my thoughts in @FireChans thread. There was more positive to go at this week so here goes..... Good Night for... Joe Andreessen - Last week the kid made it for fulfilling a lifelong ambition even if in the game his head appeared to be spinning slightly and it all happened a bit fast for him. But last night, with the Milano situation, Spector injured and Bernard held out, Andreessen got a shot as the starting middle linebacker alongside Dorian Williams and he was impressive. He was diagnosing plays, knifing into the backfield, sticky and fast in coverage and even had an open field tackle on Justin Fields. 12 total tackles, including 2 for loss. I think he might have made the roster last night. Because that performance will have made other teams sit up and notice and the Bills would be taking a risk trying to sneak him onto the practice squad. Greg Rousseau - I don't usually include proven, guaranteed starters in this thread because they don't really have much to gain or lose in pre-season action but Groot was so good last night that you can't leave him out. 2.5 sacks and 2 tackles for loss in the three defensive series he played. He was a one man wrecking ball and if he could have a breakout season this year similar to the one Ed Oliver had last year we'd all feel better about the Bills pass rush moving forwards. Ray Davis - I wanted to say "all the running backs" in this spot, but it is right to save the biggest bunch of flowers for the rookie Davis who averaged over 7 yards a tote on his 8 carries and ran hard for the Bills. I think he went into camp, at least theoretically, in a battle for the #2 job but Ty Johnson's injury opened the door and Davis has burst through it. It was a good night for all the backs. James Cook looked more decisive behind better run blocking and Darrynton Evans and Frank Gore Jnr who are the likely practice squad backs both had nice nights too. It's a spot where the Bills look to have some depth. Tylan Grable - I think Grable went into the pre-season games right on the roster bubble but for two weeks in a row I think he has been the most impressive of the Bills backup linemen and last night he switched from right tackle in week one to left tackle. Some of that was likely trying to get a look at Ryan Van Demark at right tackle where 12 months ago he look appreciably worse than on the left side but I don't think it is unreasonable to think another part of the calculation was getting a look at Grable on the blindside. He did not disappoint. He has to make the 53. This kid has not just starter but star potential down the road. Brandon Beane - After including two of his day three picks and one of his UDFAs in the list of good nights I think it is right to give Brandon Beane a bit of a bump based on what we have seen so far. While his days 1 and 2 of the 2024 NFL draft are not yet flashing in the way we might hope man the way he used that glut of day three picks looks pretty good so far. Javon Solomon has been excellent through two pre-season games too, Daequan Hardy showed some juice last night with the ball in his hand and has done some nice things as the second team nickel and Sedrick Van Pran-Granger had another steady outing (albeit mainly by the time the Steeler 3rd team was in). It is true to say the roster was always going to be easier for rookies to make this year given the mini-rebuild, but Davis, Grable, Solomon, Hardy and SVP are all on track to make it. Bad Night for... Mitch Trubisky - Ugh. In a disaster class of a night from both sets of Quarterbacks, the concerns about Trubisky show no sign of abating. The interception was terrible - Morris wasn't even open if he hadn't overthrown it - but even worse was the sacks he took holding the ball being slow processing the field. I will look again at the all22 because in his defence I didn't see much separation by receivers (more of which later) but Trubisky is making the offensive line look bad. He is indecisive and tentative and he HAS to get the ball out. I think the Bills will stick with him, but there will be concern in the organisation. In his last spell as the backup here Mitch moved the offense pretty easily in pre-season. He looks like he has come back from Pittsburgh a broken man. Kingsley Jonathan - I think Jonathan went into camp probably as a guy whose roster spot was not guaranteed but was penciled in. The Bills like him, they have taken time to develop him and he saw snippets of game action last year where he looked serviceable. However, despite decent camp reports his has been awful in the two pre-season games and with the Bills now having a young, developmental, edge guy that they drafted in Solomon looking so impressive I think Kingsley's name is at risk of being rubbed out. He could miss the cut. O'Cyrus Torrence - There is a certain irony that after all the gnashing of teeth about the left side of the offensive line following Mitch Morse's departure and McGovern's move to center it has been the right side of the starting group (which was much improved in 2023) that has been the source of concerns through two weeks. Last week I thought Spencer Brown in particular struggled but Torrence wasn't great. This week Torrence was just bad. I know he has always been a heavier guy but he looks big and sluggish to me. I wonder if he needs to shed a few pounds still to get in game shape before week 1. Him taking another step on an encouraging rookie year is important for this group I think. The receiver 'battle' - The Bills receiver situation continues to be of concern. There wasn't a ton of separation with the starters out there and then the guys battling for roster spots showed nothing. Marquez Valdes-Scantling leaving on a cart after being bent up on following his one catch might remove another name from this uninspiring competition by default but Tyrell Shavers has faded after a great first week of camp and didn't show much here either, Hamler had one nice bubble screen for a first down but was otherwise invisible... okay the third string Quarterback not knowing the playbook and therefore having to run it almost every down didn't help. But they need to keep turning over every stone. I'd not be surprised if they go back to the Corey Davis idea this week. The practice squad candidates - Other than running back, as mentioned above, and Andreessen who might now have necessitated a place on the roster finding guys who have flashed enough to say they are worth keeping for the practice squad has been particularly difficult through these first two games. I think Richard Gouraige as a versatile olineman will probably end up spending a second year there and Kendall Williamson had a couple of moments again and looks a viable candidate. But there is just not a ton of guys here who I am worried about sneaking through. Anyone good enough to have that thought about is probably making the 53. Flame away and add your own....

Oliver was excellent too. And Benford. And I think both backs have looked good. I don't disagree that there remain weaknesses. Still not sold they have NFL calibre starters at safety, who replaces Milano is now a legit question and their receiving group needs no further discussion. But there is encouragement available from this game.

We have a 3rd string QB who knows so few of the plays that we just have to call runs all 2nd half.

We do. Which is why our WR room remains a major concern.

I agree it is this year. Much more so than in past years. But it hasn't been all bad tonight there has been plenty of good. The bad, not seeing much separation from receivers and Torrence really struggled.

Some encouraging signs this week. Solomon and Grable again. Andreeson. Thought the starting Dline was excellent. Ingram and Benford too. Cook and Davis both showed a bit more than last week.