GunnerBill

Yea I don't think he will be active but call it the cautious, conservative coach in me I worry a bit if Jonathan is there in big spots. Was noticeable in the New England game that in the bigger spots late Shaq was out there even in pass rush situations. I am not sure that is ideal and suggests they don't fully trust Jonathan. It is explained multiple places. They save $6.79m against the 2024 cap by cutting Von with a post 1 June designation. It would be $17m dead cap in 2024 and $15m dead cap in 2025. But it does create cap space next year.

13 seconds was a screw up. If he screws up like that again he should be fired on the spot. I'll give anyone a mulligan. I won't give them two. The problem is the people that don't like McDermott want to turn everything into a McDermott screw up. The last two weeks are proof of this. The last two weeks the Bills coaching has been better than the Bills Quarterbacking and the Bills execution in most spots. Put simply they have coached better than the players have played. And yet... two weeks of people trying to pin failure to blow out the Chargers and Patriots on McDermott. People are so convinced that McDermott is the problem they see every mistake, every missed opportunity, every poor outcome through that prism. It makes a proper conversation about the merits of the situation really difficult to achieve. Because the McDermott outers are disingenuous about the things that are actually on him.

You have to pay him. It is about structuring it as cleverly as possible to limit the length of the true commitment to 2-3 years max. The AAV is the flashy figure and that will be in the $50m range. But this contract is all about the structure and the guarantees.

It isn't about time so much as distance. Punters have a range from which they are most confident of pinning a team like kickers have a range from which they are most confident making FGs. They could have just punted straight away but once they didn't and they were in Martin's sweet spot you don't risk that with a DOG. Especially when with 2 TOs left and 1:12 on the clock you are not gonna need that TO for something else. If there was 4 minutes legt you take the DOG. But where they were that TO is otherwise likely no use to you. It made sense to take it and let Martin punt to pin them. And he executed perfectly.

WR and DL first two picks.

Beane by his own admission screwed up the QB market. The guy they wanted was Keenum. He went to Denver. Then they decided to wait it out and take whichever vet was left when the music stopped. That was AJ McCarron. It become clear quickly that was a mistake. And they loved Peterman as a person. He couldn't play football though.

That is true. And in the middle of the season the defense was bad for a period. But they have played well down the stretch, even against good teams. They played well vs Philly too, especially first half. The score is a bit inflated by OT but even in that game the play calling and the scheme were good. It was the one game where Douglas struggled which makes a difference.

They could have just punted, that is fair. But once they didn't the TO was the right call. They felt like from there the kicker could pin New England and force them to be conservative for fear if it giving it back.

In general this. But I still think on reflection the time out on Sunday made sense.

The Pats Dline is the best part of their team. I thought we ran it well enough. Not too many negative runs even it was a day of 3s and 4s rather than the 7s and 8s we have been used to recently. There is some truth to this but I wouldn't be too harsh on Brady for that. You can't install loads of new plays and new formations mid season as an interim OC. He has focused on trying to package route combos slightly better and adding some eye candy pre-snap to give us advantageous looks. That is about as much as you can achieve taking over in season.

With the extra late picks and what looks a decent class this is the time to swing on a backup QB. 5th round on. And not a Jake Fromm type. Get a guy with some upside not a guy who is undersized and maxed out in college.

They could try and convince him to write off the $6.4m non guaranteed segment of the 2024 salary so that the Bills save the same money but keep him on the roster without him giving up any of the guaranteed money. That is a pretty straightforward option if he is open to it.

Spotrac - they make a post 1 June designation: POST-6/1 RELEASE 2024 Dead Cap: $17,084,000 2025 Dead Cap: $15,417,000 2024 Cap Savings: $6,790,000 It is basically the remaining $6.4m of the base salary that doesn't guarantee until the 5th day of the league year, plus the roster bonus and workout bonuses for a few hundred grand. Gets you to the $6.79m - I said $7m for shorthand. And my point in the other thread is that they were always planning it to be a 3 year deal in real terms so they must be planning for the $15.4m in dead money in any event (although in an ideal world with the ability to spread that hit over 2025 and 2026). So the question is are you willing to eat all of that dead cap in 2025, plus a chunk of dead cap you hadn't planned for in 2024, in order to save yourself $7m against the cap compared to if he stayed on the roster. And given they are making him a healthy scratch now I gotta suspect it is trending towards "yes".

Yes, totally. I am not saying their offense is all scheme and no talent either. We saw when McCaffrey, Deebo and Williams missed time together they lost 3 on the bounce and looked a shadow of the same team. But my point was both sides of the ball in San Fran they have star players with elite talent. The they are not example of get talent on O and trust the D just to coach guys up. They are an example (yet another one) of get yourself those stars and then coach your recyclable JAGs around them for sustained success. That is made easier for them than most because of Purdy's contract.

It isn't that bit they might be in trouble for. They are entitled to do that. Threatening to bench a player unless they concede a previously agreed to guarantee in their contract however is potentially a breach of the CBA

While the Broncos season was not technically lost they conceded it was all but.

Of course but they are not an example of a team that is ploughing resource into offense and just getting by with scheme on defense. That isn't the 49ers model. There are two things about their current roster build that stick out as interesting: 1. They have Mr Irrelevant at least for one more year on a hugely advantageous rookie deal (that is almost impossible for any team to replicate); 2. They have very little of a middle class on their roster. They are stars and JAGs. That to me is the model that is the pattern among most recent Superbowl winners (rather than O vs D) and is where I still think the Bills are a bit off it. Not enough stars, more of a middle class, fewer JAGs and arguably greater depth. But that isn't ultimately what gets you over the line. It's the stars.

3 of the 9ers top 5 cap hits and 5 of their top 9 are on defense. Also if you take out Trey Lance they have spent their first pick in the draft on offense once since 2012. The magic of the 49ers build isn't having a cheap well coached defense. It is having a Mr Irrelevant QB who is at least a very capable game manager. That allows them the flexibility to have 3 highly paid DL, a market setting MLB and a well paid corner. Sure, they are well coached and have a good scheme.... but Nick Bosa, Arik Armstead, Fred Warner and Charvarius Ward certainly make the job of that defensive coaching staff easier. So does having the fewest turnovers on offense (which they had until Baltimore, there are four teams below them now).

No because he isn't an outside receiver.

They definitely need to draft defensive line. Not an option not to IMO. But I agree their focus on day 1 should be trying to find a wide receiver. It is really receiver, Dline and safety that are the positions during FA and the draft where they need to find guys. I'd want to draft a young OT too to have something in reserve if Brown ends up walking after 2024. Disagree I think they need to go Dline on day 2. I think they will get a mid round comp pick for next year for Epenesa. 4th or a 5th.

Yea it isn't like Tyrod. With Tyrod the Bills genuinely were maintaining financial leverage over him because they didn't want injury to automatically trigger his option and then a new coach be tied to him for multiple years. This isn't what is happening in Denver. The coach is staying. He is safe as houses. Russell wasn't benched so they could decide what to do next year. He was benched to make sure the cost of cutting him (already significant) didn't escalate any higher.

Greg Rousseau was a first rounder so there is the 5th year option too. The Bills will pick that up this summer and likely extend him after 2024. On some of the others - I think AJ is gone. He will have a bigger market than most expect unless one of Brian Burns or Josh Allen sneaks through to FA. But conversly I don't see a big market for Daquan Jones. He has always been a good player and his previous two tries at FA have left him with a pretty modest contract. And now he is a 32 year old coming off a torn pec. If the Bills want him back that is an easy deal to do. The question becomes how comfortable are they with where he is at physically to commit money to him again. Similary on Leonard Floyd. He might have a bit more of a market than he had last year. He has a had a very good season. But there is a reason he was out there for the Bills to sign in the second wave of FA and again he turns 32 as next season begins. It is worth saying on Floyd as well that while his sack number is up on his final two years in LA his pressures were actually down. Now there is two ways to look at that - you can say well his overall snaps are down and maybe he is converting pressures to sacks at a better rate because he is fresher. That is one theory. The other is that his high conversion rate is a bit of an anomoly that won't hold. I'd be inclined to bring him back though. He and Epenese have been by far our most productive pass rushers off the edge and to lose both would leave us thin. Von I laid out in another thread the other day. Cutting him costs us $17m more than they likely originally planned. But it also saves us $7m against the cap in 2024 and he was just a healthy scratch. I think he is gone.

I haven't seen an updated metric. Id be surprised if the Bills have had many seasons with 6 games against 10 win teams. And if the Bills lose on Sunday they have underachieved. There is no dispute about that.

It is by that metric we had the 7th hardest schedule in the NFL pre-season. EDIT: sorry 7th.

I think we have had the toughest schedule of the McDermott era. It was ranked I think 2nd toughest before the season began based on last year's win totals. Haven't seen how it eventually ranks but again, likely 6 games against double digit win teams. Not sure how many other teams will have had that? The easiest schedule was 2019. Not saying making the playoffs was a mirage that year or anything but the Bills had a schedule that set up perfectly for them. I take the point on relative health on offense. I think the wide receiver group has struggled. There has been some coaching issues on that side, witness the change in OC, but also Josh Allen just hasn't been consistent enough and he leads the league in interceptions.