GunnerBill

But that is as much on Brandon Beane and the coaches as it is on AJ himself. They drafted a big, base end, and asked him to become an outside speed rusher.

Yea kinda depends what the Philly offense looks like. But he should have a LOT of opportunity as the slot with those guys outside.

Quite possible

In a straight up who you taking I might take Dotson but it would be close. But in Shakir and a 3rd round pick or Dotson it is Shakir and the pick without doubt. I only had just over a round between them when I evaluated them coming out. I know Dotson went mid 1st and Shakir went 5th but I had a mid 2 on Dotson and a late 3rd on Shakir. Now at this point if you redrafted them..... they would go pretty close together.

Still crazy. Slot production is easier to get. You get more free releases. So taking a superior player who gets half a yard more per route ran outside off the boundary just because he might have an even bigger advantage over the inferior player in the slot once he gets a free release would be dumb. Yea there is a price I'd have been in on it. Not quite this price given the current makeup of our room.

Interesting analogy with the comparison to Elam.

It is the 3 I wouldn't do. If they'd have been willing to take a 4 and a 5 I might have done it. I get he is cheaper than Samuel but my question is more how do you get both on the field at the same time (and Shakir)? I think our need is more for a true outside guy. They will use Dotson as their slot. I'd be absolutely shocked if they did anything else. Moving Smith to play Dotson wide on a regular basis would be borderline insanity.

As long as Mitch is relatively short term (all indications are that he is) I am all but convinced they will do option 2. DiNucci to the PS and use his elevations. The one fly in the ointment is him balling out Saturday and some team snagging him for their 53 but I think the chances of that are super low. I'm actually surprised they haven't called Matt Barkley. He wouldn't be starting at ground zero with the playbook though with the OC change he'd need some time. And he can be your break glass in case of emergency PS option. Maybe they did before signing Brown and he said he is done. I dunno.

But you also have a bias when it comes to Dotson are liked him much more than me coming out. I think the evidence so far is very much in my favour. I agree he can't do all the things Samuel can and is probably a more natural route runner, but position wise he is a slot with Z flex. That was my point. I am not sure you are getting them both on the field.

Clapp and Jonathan are the only two candidates I can see. Would they keep Collins because he is worth nothing in a trade but trade Clapp cos he might return you a 6th or 7th?

I think he is a slot with some Z flex. But that is also what we just gave Curtis Samuel $8m per to do isn't it? I'm not sure he has shown anything to be an upgrade on Samuel. Indeed they were on the same team last year and Samuel had more targets, more receptions and more yards. I'd not have been against an early day 3 pick as a gamble on upside. But unless Samuel's turf toe is serious I don't know that I'd have been giving up more than that. It is. I think it makes a lot of sense for the Eagles, he can be a slot only in that offense with two studs getting the majority of coverage attention outside. And for Washington getting a day 2 pick back for a selection of the last regime who you don't see as a fit that is a good result.

But he is basically a replica of Samuel and we need outside guys. Like there is a price I'd have done it at a 4th and a 6th, maybe a 4th and a 5th (to keep him our of a divisional rivals clutches maybe that would have done it?) but he isn't worth a day 2 pick at this stage IMO. As was said by @DCOrange - I think if they didn't find a trade partner he was gonna be cut.

I accepted it might be true on the twittersphere. I don't frequent that particular medium very often. See I wasn't down on Keon... I had him as WR9 😆 On a serious note - agree with everything else you wrote here.

You were the one saying that. That is where this all started. "They all only care about 40 time." And your evidence appears to be a bunch of guys saying "he doesn't separate." You say - ah that's a proxy for saying 40 time. I say, no it's not.

No, I'm not sure I would. An early day 3 pick not a day 2 one is where I'd have put the value. A 4th and a 6th or something.

At the right price, possibly. But he is another Curtis Samuel IMO. He really belongs in the slot but can play some outside. He was massively overdrafted but nobody wanted to hear it.

He has been bang average.

Overrated and overdrafted. I said it at the time. Will never be a #1 receiver while he has a hole in his backside. He could be a nice fit as a slot in the Eagles offense with two studs outside. That is where he belongs in the NFL. Inside.

I haven't projected anything. I have looked for evidence of people banging on about 40 time. It isn't there. Even speed is not the main criticism that comes up. The main criticism that comes up is separation. So I am just reading the words on the page. You are the one projecting.

No, you are the one deciding that. You don't know that is what people think. You are projecting that everyone who worries about him separating does so, not just because they are worried about his speed, but - in your own words - because they overreacted to a 40 time. If every time you read "he isn't a good separator" you in your head read "he ran a slow 40" I understand why you perceive it the way you do. But that involves you projecting some.

Such is the lot of a situational pass rusher. They are by nature streaky. He has only hit 50% of field time in one post-season game (his most recent one where he was bank on 50). I agree he hasn't justified second round pick status. You need more than two seasons of rotational player value to justify that. And I was surprised the Bills extended him. He has only started four games in four seasons as a Bill. If they are relying on him to suddenly be an every down player I think that is a major risk. Where we disagree is you have called him "useless" and "terrible" in recent days. I don't think he is either of those things. I think he has some burst and some bend and in terms of a pass rusher who can actually just flat out beat his man to the edge he is the best the Bills have unless Von can re-find his form. But he isn't consistent, he can't set the edge and he lacks discipline.

No there aren't. The number one people think he can't separate is in college he struggled to separate.

They are just beyond my 30 year timeframe..... but yes, we have not been lucky in terms of running into dynasties

It wasn't a great draft. I am higher than AJE than you - I think he is a decent situational pass rusher and the two years he has played properly after they drafted him then totally ripped his game apart and rebuilt him he HAS been productive in that role. But I doubt his ability to be an every down player and when you have invested a 2nd round pick and two years of a complete rebuild into a player they have to be more than situational IMO. Moss was a meh pick, I said at time I could live with it but wanted more speed. Turns out that was a fair summation of what he has been as an NFL player. Davis - that WAS an excellent 4th round pick. To get a solid starting #2 outside receiver in round 4 is good value. Obviously they haven't paid him, but when you are paying a franchise QB that has to be your model at #2 receiver: draft, get on the field early, hopefully get good production, let them walk and take the comp pick. Fromm - yea, never like low ceiling Quarterbacks. Even as backups. Hodgins - I was a sceptic before that draft. He was a non-separator in college and the history of non-separators in college finding the magic forumla in the NFL is not great. Jackson - Excellent value 7th rounder. Low end starter / high end backup outside corner. Bass - good start but has lost his way. I think absolute garbage is a slight stretch, they got good value from Gabe and Dane for four years on day 3 contracts. You can't keep all your guys, when you get that production from day 3 players you have to recognise that as a good job regardless of whether you keep them beyond that point. But it also wasn't a good draft. No corner stone players from it in contrast to 2017, 2018 and 2019 which produced (combined) Dawkins, White, Milano, Allen, Johnson, Oliver and Knox who have all been cornerstone players who earned second contracts.

Bills fans have a warped perception of what success feels like in the modern NFL because there have been two dynasties in the last 30 years and we have had a front row seat for both of them. The Patriots juggernaut in our own division when we were irrelevant that we couldn't ignore because they beat our asses twice a year and the Chiefs bandwagon that has been the primary obstacle to us winning championships when we have been contenders. The reality is most teams who have a 5-10 year run of relevance win one superbowl in that period. If the Bills fail to do that, it will be failure. But that is the standard to judge against.