GunnerBill

Haha most likely to reoffend are literally: 1. Property crime 2. Drug offenders Seriel killers are not captured separately in the data. For two reasons: 1. Sample size; 2. Very few (if any) are ever released so never get the chance to reoffend. Violence against the person (so domestic abusers etc) are about middle of the pack. And sexual offenders are the least likely to reoffend after a prior conviction. Again I don't have the US data but in the UK its about 13% of sexual offenders go on to reoffend. Whereas it is almost 60% of those convicted of theft. I could talk all day about why that is but fundamentally theft is a crime that isn't about the behaviour itself it is about the drivers of the behaviour. And no amount of punishment ever changes those underlying drivers (usually poverty or addiction). Whereas sexual offenders are largely motivated by the behaviour and so you can create a link more directly between the behaviour and the punishment.

This is actually the exact opposite of the evidence. Recidivism is highest among those committing property crime (theft, criminal damage etc). That is consistent in the UK and the US. I don't know the US data on sexual offenders but in the UK they are the least likely to re-offend and by a fair margin too.

I didn't like the play calls on 2nd and 3rd down. I think Allen's hand might have played into it but I thought those were two poor calls. Not because they were runs. But because it was obvious what was coming. They should have tried the QB keeper 2nd down then spread it out but with an inbuilt run on 3rd. Once if got to 4th down I know the math but honestly I was fine with them kicking. The Bills had all but shut the Arizona offense down second half. I felt pretty confident they weren't scoring 7. So I don't mind anyone being mad because the math supports them. But flow of the game I understood it.

I think they will need the offense to carry the team more. But there were not a ton of superman plays yesterday. There were games down the stretch last year where they asked him to do more IMO.

On the rotation yesterday is one of the least heavy rotations Iv seen from a McDermott team here. Ed played 82% (and I agree didn't impact the game, though in part that was the Cardinals plan was to stay away from the middle of our D and attack the edges) and Groot wasn't far behind.

On the first point - I agree. It worked yesterday, but going forward that balance needs to even out some IMO. Shakir they maybe could have used more. I think the Cardinals zeroed in on trying to take Kincaid away. On the final FG I have to think they were trying to protect Josh. I know, non-throwing hand, but they didn't want him dropping back in the pocket risking him being him and landing on it again. Although I think the third down call was a called QB run, which does pose a risk as well so maybe slightly inconsistent. Overall I don't think the play calling was too predictable. I thought there was some nice creativity in their design of the passing game. There wasn't a lot to the outside. It was all middle of the field. There were four outside throws all day, three to the right and one to the left. But I think you are gonna have to get used to that. That is a result of the talent they have. They don't have guys who are going to win consistently outside. It limits what they can do there. That isn't a Joe Brady problem it is a Brandon Beane problem. In terms of superman plays for Josh yesterday, the two rushing touchdowns were one called run and one scramble I think... but beyond that and the one early 2nd half where he rolled out right and made a great throw on the run to Cook which were the plays where he was bailing the design out? I think generally the design was pretty good yesterday. They schemed some nice opportunities up.

I listened to some of the post game show on my commute this morning and the callers were a mess. Either people just coming on to try and sneak a curse about the presenters in (Schopp always sees to get them off before the expletive, it's a skill) or people ringing in saying things like "yea I was just worried that the Cardinals scored a kick return, do guys think that is bad for our special teams?" Or come on here instead....

He only had two throws (that counted) but there were 6 called pass plays out of 16 total. 2 completions, 2 sacks, one Allen scramble, one incompletion negated by penalty on AZ. The 10 runs were averaging 6 yards per play and that is including a couple of short yardage runs where they were just calling plays to get 2/3 yards a first down. If it becomes a pattern that they struggle to get Josh going early its a problem. As it was yesterday the bare numbers obscure the facts a bit.

I may well be. I haven't watched back. But the Bills shut down their plays to get outside much better 2nd half. The Raiders - Chargers game was atrocious. Those are two bad football teams.

Not quite. Lewis played for Taron, then Ingram came in for the dime package - 4 DBs. You might be right thought that in those packages Ingram essentially played as the nickel and Lewis reverted to dime (in fact I think you are right about that). But it in the Bills nickel base it was all Lewis as the nickel.

He was inactive

Fair enough, it felt like more. But overall they definitely second half got to grips with those off tackle runs and forced Arizona to try and switch to running up the gut which is less their strength. Yes.

Monday morning afternoon reflections: 1. I think this was two credible teams. I saw less sloppy football than in most of the other week one matchups I've watched. The Rams might lack a bit of true elite talent compared to their Superbowl winning heyday a couple of years ago, but they have a solid young roster and a re well coached. The Lions on the other hand look like they are contenders for a deep playoff run again if they can clean some things up. 2. The Kupp - Nacua dynamic bears watching as we move forward I think. Kupp struggled to be properly healthy last season and I always felt a bit like Nacua was benefitting from some vacated targets - he averaged over 100 yards in games Kupp was down for example. Nacua can play from the boundary more than Kupp but they tend to win in very similar ways and how they balance using them both while keeping the offense sufficiently varied / unpredictable is a point to track throughout the year. 3. The Rams offense needs to run game to work to be seen to full effect. It always has. Williams didn't have a great day but his oline really seemed to struggle opening holes. AJ Arcuri in particular really struggled. It's going to be hard to generate those downfield throws off play action without defenses feeling they need to prioritise stopping the run. 4. Jameson Williams breaking out, finally, would be such a significant development for Detroit. Behind St. Brown they, to say the least, are not a great receiving corps. They, have been waiting to get something from Williams and if that is now going to happen it can be a significant difference maker for them. 5. I still say Jahmyr Gibbs was a poor use of a 1st round pick. The argument about why running backs are not wise investments in the first round has been done to death but the are certainly not wise investments if they are still stuck firmly in a time share in year two and when the team really needs yards on the ground it goes away from you to the "solid vet." Detroit has generally drafted very well to super charge its revival. But the 2023 first round was a misstep IMO.

Correct. The play he hurt himself on was NOT a Quarterback draw. That was Josh Allen seeing an opening and being Josh Allen. You will never take that out of his game. It was a called pass play, the defense defended it like a pass play, Josh saw a lane and took off. Does the Bills lack of separators down there impact how often Josh plays it that way? I think so (15 rushing TDs last year a career high, 2 already this year) but that isn't on Brady or Dorsey last year. That's on Brandon Beane if anyone.

I need to look properly at the film. I think a few things happened: 1. They calmed down a bit. The defense was frantic every snap first half.... defenders still sprinting across the formation as the ball was being snapped, desperate waving hand gestures. That loss of experienced heads in Hyde, Poyer, Milano and Taron was really visible and there was a sense of panic. I think part it at half time was probably just settling them down a bit. 2. They got a bit more aggressive on passing downs. 3. They definitely managed to slow the Cardinals off tackle run game down a bit. First half it was consistently picking up 5 or 6 yards per attempt. They slowed that and 2nd and 8 is a smaller playbook than 2nd and 4 which they seemed forever in first half. Need to see the all22 to see exactly what the tweaked to do that but in the past (certainly under Leslie) their approach to teams attacking that way was to ask their DTs to focus much more on establishing the line of scrimmage rather than penetrating upfield.

It's absolutely fair to discuss. I just think you are off base WRT Brady.

I'm less critical of Brady. The Bills moved the ball on every drive and he had some great designs. The play that ended in the Hollins TD was an audible built into the playcall (confirmed by Josh in his presser) and the design on the Shakir TD was excellent. He also had a couple of really good creative plays in there - the one that got Knox open for a nice gain for example. I think he had some calls you'd want back. The fade to Coleman right after he had the big catch felt forced (and Josh didn't throw it great) and the series at the end the runs on 2nd and 3rd down were both kind of the obvious play call. If you are going to run Josh there I prefer you do it on second down when the defense is playing for other things more. I do wonder how limited they were throwing because of the hand (I know non throwing hand etc) but those plays felt really too safe. As for did he run too much on first down.... I kinda felt that in the game too, but I struggle to argue with the results of it too much. It is something that bears watching as the season ticks on. And on Kincaid this is where I defend Brady. It looked to me like there was a concerted effort from Arizona to take Kincaid away. There were multiple plays where I saw they had a defensive back on him rather than a linebacker. He was the guy the Cardinals had decided was not going to beat them. It goes back to my point about why you do need guys who win outside. If I want to take away a tight end or a slot receiver who works mainly inside I have a lot more options as a defensive coordinator. It is much harder to actively double a guy who plays outside without affecting the overall structure and coherence of my defense. Basically to do it I have to move a safety out of the middle of the field to come and support a corner over the top. Whereas I can double and bracket a tight end while still having the guys I'm asking to do it be broadly in position to play their responsibilities in the defense because that area is just more congested. I'd give Brady a 7/10 for yesterday. Not perfect, but pretty good. I'd give Babich a 5/10. The defense was really struggling to get lined up first half. The communication was tough for them. I know the safety injuries in the summer haven't helped, and then losing Milano late and Taron within the first defensive series. That is a lot of turnover in the back seven. But I didn't feel that unit was particularly well coached. They buttoned it up a bit second half, but they need a lot of work. Smiley a 1/10. Never understood how he got that job. He is in over his skis.

Was interesting McD said in his presser until Smoot went down Ingram was not going to be up. Wonder how that worked out. I doubt it is as simple as Smoot out, Ingram in, because that would have been 6 defensive ends up and only 8 DBs. So it likely came down to STs balance and I wonder if that meant that Ingram as another corner was preferred over Bishop as an extra safety.

I'm not sure if it has been said already but it's because the role Ingram was playing was the Dime. Lewis was out starting Dime then he had to slide into Nickel when Taron went out and with his injury issues this off-season my guess is that Edwards hasn't had time to learn the Dime role as well as safety in this defense so Ingram was next man up. Elam can't play inside. He is strictly a boundary corner only. If Benford or Douglas came out I think Elam would have gone in. But Ingram has some inside / outside flex.

They have been underrated in the offseason IMO. They still have a very good Quarterback, an elite receiver, a solid oline and 3 or 4 playmakers on defense. Are they short of weapons around Lamb? Yea, they are. But as long as he is healthy they are a legit team.

Agree. Bass was trying to kick to the endzone. The kickoff on the return was wind affected.

Same. I think he has been scapegoated beyond what is fair.

And hiw many outside throws were there that were not laterals / screens? I can only think of the one to Keon where he didn't separate but bodied the defender out and made a good catch and the comeback to MVS. They mainly focused on winning inside. I like that but there are times you are going to have to threaten more outside, especially against better defenses. So while there were signs of encouragement today it isn't time for any victory laps yet. EDIT: the pass map on next gen suggests there were 3 outside throws that went past the line of scrimmage.

Bengals are 1-10 in weeks 1 and 2 under Zac Taylor. For the team to be so unprepared every season is on coaching.

Cam Lewis was our second best defender today after Groot.