GunnerBill

Depends what you mean by this. As opposed to someone who had no business being on an NFL field like he did last year? Yes, he did. But as a guy who is going to affect games consistently? No, he needs to do more to demonstrate that.

I think the loss of Huff was understated in the offseason. And then the idea presumably was offset some with Reddick but he is still holding out and I'm not sure he wants to be there.

Watched it back on the all22. MVS doesn't slow up. If anything he trips himself a bit at the very end trying to speed up. The wind definitely affected the throw. I want to see Josh start to hit those deep balls because it will help back defenses off and allow the Bills underneath guys (which is most of their skill players) more room to work. But I give him a bit of a pass on that one. The wind was blowing left to right for those of us watching on tv and I think it did just enough to take the ball beyond where MVS could have got to.

I haven't said Von had a bad play. He pushed his guy back. But it was Murray's clumsiness that led to a freebie sack. It isn't hard. It is just the reality of what happened.

That is not a fair characterisation of me at all. But I say it as I see it with every player. Von was better than last year but that's a low bar. He had a few pressures but that wasn't a sack in more than the stat books. He pushed his guy back, fair, but Murray trips. He gets a freebie sack. Nobody would be more delighted than me if Von gets double digit sacks this year and proves me wrong. But I am going to be honest with what I see. An example - I have been a big critic of Mack Hollins all summer - he played well Sunday and ran the route for his touchdown perfectly to be in a position where only he could make a play on the ball. I have no issue eating crow where it is deserved. Von's performance on Sunday was not one that should have anyone doing victory laps. He was moving better and he managed to sustain a higher snap count than I'd have guessed. They were the positives for him in my view.

Yea it's always been the knock on him. He is arrogant, aloof and not really a great communicator. He is a great play designer, probably the best of his generation and he is a really good talent evaluator too, he knows what specifications he wants for players at each position and can spot those talents in otherwise undervalued players. That helps his GM to build a sustainable roster. But his leadership isn't his calling card.

A certain former UK Government minister I once worked for used to say "impacted is a word for use by people who don't know whether they should use affected or effected and cop out."

He is also about to turn 30, and has 1 sack and 3 TFLs in three playoff starts. It's a bad idea, especially on a team that is in a mini-reset. If it is in two years time and the Bills have rebuilt a young roster and TJ is 32, still being somewhat productive but frustrated with a failing Steelers franchise and you want to add him as a final piece for a year or two similar to what they tried with Von I see the logic. But regardless of the ridiculous price you propose this isn't worth considering to the Bills right now.

Even twitter is not twitter. Yea. I crunched the numbers last year. The Chiefs are an outlier. Three of their four starters played 70% plus. The majority of the other playoff teams had one guy above 70% another guy in the 60% range and then 3 or 4 guys around high 40s low 50s.

Yea. The rep is as I said. Murray trips up and Von taps him. He doesn't sack him in a traditional sense. You are talking nonsense. Haven't listened to Joe yet this week. I will. I respect his opinion. But unless he shows me stuff I missed in the game I disagree with him on Von. He was meh.

Tuesday morning reflections: 1. Thanks to Kyle Shanahan for my fantasy win. When you are playing Jake Moody vs Brandon Aiyuk with a 2 point lead going in you do not expect to come out infront. But on this occasion I did! What a night for Moody and anyone who loves field goals 2. That 49ers roster remains stacked. I think it is the last year it will be stacked given cap and age issues and they are kind of all in on this season. But if they stay healthy they remain clearly the best team in the NFC to me. They will be hoping if they get back to the Superbowl it is anyone other than the Chiefs. 3. A lot is made of Shanahan's ability to get production from late draft picks and UDFAs at running back but I am always impressed by his ability to get production out of offensive lines that are not full of day 1 picks. This isn't the Lions or the Cowboys doing it with first rounders. This is a bunch of day 2 and day 3 guys aside from Trent Williams. Rookie Dominick Puni had an impressive debut at right guard. 4. I know the 49ers run on everyone but you can run on the New York Jets. They were 25th defending the run last year and while their yard per attempt was still respectable there are opportunities there if you stick with it against them. They play to stop the pass - which is the right priority in the modern NFL - but unless their offense improves at sustaining drives the risk of being easier to run on is the D is on the field a lot and eventually wears down. 5. And that Jets offense... it's like a set of baubels looking for a Christmas tree. Rodgers had some real nice throws. Wilson had that one drive where he was unguardable, and Hall (while poor tonight) will have some moments over the course of the season. But there is no structure. There is no method. It is like someone has constructed the gameplan by ripping pages out of the gameplans of all 31 other teams then jumbling them together. They will need to find some semblence of an identity to have success and not just rely on "give Rodgers time and he can make every throw."

Ah the sack where Ed and Groot won their reps forced Kyler up and he tripped over and Von was the one who ran round to play tag? That sack? He looked to be moving better than he did last year. That is fair. Beyond that, no. He did not prove the doubters wrong.

He is heading to IR. Disagree. Cam was very good. Ingram was lucky not to draw a penalty. He stinks so bad. The sooner they can get Edwards and Bishop healthy and up to speed the better. Those two safeties starting yesterday have no business starting in the NFL in week 1 for anyone.

I did not laugh at you. I laughed at the contradiction. I certainly did not mean to belittle any experience. If you took it that way I apologise. Nor was I trying to win an argument. But this is something that I am professionally and personally invested in and it is important that the debate on offending happens in possession of the facts and not based on emotional reactions. That is all I was doing. I genuinely did not mean to cause any offence.

Which is why evidence matters. Because no two people have the same personal experience which colours perceptions.

Haha most likely to reoffend are literally: 1. Property crime 2. Drug offenders Seriel killers are not captured separately in the data. For two reasons: 1. Sample size; 2. Very few (if any) are ever released so never get the chance to reoffend. Violence against the person (so domestic abusers etc) are about middle of the pack. And sexual offenders are the least likely to reoffend after a prior conviction. Again I don't have the US data but in the UK its about 13% of sexual offenders go on to reoffend. Whereas it is almost 60% of those convicted of theft. I could talk all day about why that is but fundamentally theft is a crime that isn't about the behaviour itself it is about the drivers of the behaviour. And no amount of punishment ever changes those underlying drivers (usually poverty or addiction). Whereas sexual offenders are largely motivated by the behaviour and so you can create a link more directly between the behaviour and the punishment.

This is actually the exact opposite of the evidence. Recidivism is highest among those committing property crime (theft, criminal damage etc). That is consistent in the UK and the US. I don't know the US data on sexual offenders but in the UK they are the least likely to re-offend and by a fair margin too.

I didn't like the play calls on 2nd and 3rd down. I think Allen's hand might have played into it but I thought those were two poor calls. Not because they were runs. But because it was obvious what was coming. They should have tried the QB keeper 2nd down then spread it out but with an inbuilt run on 3rd. Once if got to 4th down I know the math but honestly I was fine with them kicking. The Bills had all but shut the Arizona offense down second half. I felt pretty confident they weren't scoring 7. So I don't mind anyone being mad because the math supports them. But flow of the game I understood it.

I think they will need the offense to carry the team more. But there were not a ton of superman plays yesterday. There were games down the stretch last year where they asked him to do more IMO.

On the rotation yesterday is one of the least heavy rotations Iv seen from a McDermott team here. Ed played 82% (and I agree didn't impact the game, though in part that was the Cardinals plan was to stay away from the middle of our D and attack the edges) and Groot wasn't far behind.

On the first point - I agree. It worked yesterday, but going forward that balance needs to even out some IMO. Shakir they maybe could have used more. I think the Cardinals zeroed in on trying to take Kincaid away. On the final FG I have to think they were trying to protect Josh. I know, non-throwing hand, but they didn't want him dropping back in the pocket risking him being him and landing on it again. Although I think the third down call was a called QB run, which does pose a risk as well so maybe slightly inconsistent. Overall I don't think the play calling was too predictable. I thought there was some nice creativity in their design of the passing game. There wasn't a lot to the outside. It was all middle of the field. There were four outside throws all day, three to the right and one to the left. But I think you are gonna have to get used to that. That is a result of the talent they have. They don't have guys who are going to win consistently outside. It limits what they can do there. That isn't a Joe Brady problem it is a Brandon Beane problem. In terms of superman plays for Josh yesterday, the two rushing touchdowns were one called run and one scramble I think... but beyond that and the one early 2nd half where he rolled out right and made a great throw on the run to Cook which were the plays where he was bailing the design out? I think generally the design was pretty good yesterday. They schemed some nice opportunities up.

I listened to some of the post game show on my commute this morning and the callers were a mess. Either people just coming on to try and sneak a curse about the presenters in (Schopp always sees to get them off before the expletive, it's a skill) or people ringing in saying things like "yea I was just worried that the Cardinals scored a kick return, do guys think that is bad for our special teams?" Or come on here instead....

He only had two throws (that counted) but there were 6 called pass plays out of 16 total. 2 completions, 2 sacks, one Allen scramble, one incompletion negated by penalty on AZ. The 10 runs were averaging 6 yards per play and that is including a couple of short yardage runs where they were just calling plays to get 2/3 yards a first down. If it becomes a pattern that they struggle to get Josh going early its a problem. As it was yesterday the bare numbers obscure the facts a bit.

I may well be. I haven't watched back. But the Bills shut down their plays to get outside much better 2nd half. The Raiders - Chargers game was atrocious. Those are two bad football teams.

Not quite. Lewis played for Taron, then Ingram came in for the dime package - 4 DBs. You might be right thought that in those packages Ingram essentially played as the nickel and Lewis reverted to dime (in fact I think you are right about that). But it in the Bills nickel base it was all Lewis as the nickel.