GunnerBill

I agree if Babich and Brady perform someone will hire them as HCs. They are young, energetic, bright minds. That is what teams are looking for. And while the perception is that only applies to offense that isn't true. Brandon Staley had one year as a DC but was successful and fitted that profile and a team hired him right off the bat. Probably too early for his own good and after a fast start he failed miserably. Mike Macdonald had two years behind him but it took him half a season to get it right in Baltimore so basically a season and a half of good performance and he was hired too. If teams see bright, young, energetic guys they hire them. That is the risk you run when you hire young up and comers... but with them comes fresh ideas. Or you can value stability (the Bills had the most senior coaching stability in the league for a period with McD, Frazier, Daboll) but that means hiring more veteran guys. Daboll wasn't a retread HC but he had failed in multiple OC spots earlier in his career. I'd hope the current incumbents might stay a couple of years but if the Bills have a good season not completely beyond the realm that one of them lands a job this year. Remember both were sought after as coordinators last summer and had the Bills passed on either they'd be OC/DC somewhere else right now. I think Brady might be affected by the fact that Ben Johnson seems to be creating a bit of a logjam in terms of offensive guys. Eight HCs hired last time around, five defense and three offense one of whom - Harbaugh - I don't really count as offense he isn't some genius offensive coordinator he is the archetypal Head Coach hired for leadership. It hasn't started great for Canales and Callahan and I do wonder a bit if there is a feeling on the offensive hires that "Johnson is the one" and team are preferring to go defense rather than reach for their second choice of offensive boy wonder. I also think as you say Slowik and Kubiak - because of that Shanahan system - are probably the next two cabs off the rank after Johnson. That might push Brady back slightly in the queue even if he continues his early success with the Bills. I wonder what the market for someone like a Stefanski or a Sirianni would be if they were fired too? Would anyone give them a chance to jump straight back in? Or are they in "prove it again as a HC" territory.

Honestly I think those were more about personnel than scheme. In 2021 their oline was a major major weakness. In 2022 they started hot but when they had injuries to their receivers performance dropped and they didn't have depth. Agre having more of a genuine run game helps. Not disputing that. But I don't think it is evidence that the Bills have to win less on Josh's right arm.

Through two weeks Dodson has been very good for them. Another win for Buffalo's player development. The way they worked with him and developed him year on year from an UDFA to a good starting linebacker is impressive. That doesn't happen without good coaching. Can't keep them all, obviously. So it is to Seattle's benefit. It's also proof if you have a top ypung coordinator it doesn't matter whether they are offense or defense. You will lose them to a Head Coaching job. Your best hope of maintaining coordinators for the long term is by hiring guys who have been Head Coaches and been fired and within that category it probably is true that a defensive guy is easier to keep because an offensive guy might be more likely to get a second shot.

He has shown flashes Elam, for sure, but he has also shown severe inconsistency. His issue hasn't been making splash plays. It has been making routine ones where he has struggled.

Yea if fingers crossed they stay healthy this year we might never know whether the light has come on or not for Kaiir. But at the same time it is fair to say that Benford beat him out fair and square in open competitions two years in a row in 2022 and 2023.

Again, if it was that important to him he'd have got something done with them last offseason. He is going to go where the money is best and that won't be here.

Ta. And is their ranking by ASS out there anywhere? Or just the win % stat.

I wouldn't say zero.... but 80/20 against. Because I believe he does want the maxim pay. You have to remember this is not a guy with big career earnings (relative to the NFL average for a player of his ilk) because he broke out late.

Kyler Gordon was the guy I thought made the most sense for the Bills in the Elam draft. With him and Jaylon Johnson the Bears D is gonna be a tough out on the backend.

Except for the key spot. Ekwonu continues to be rough at left tackle. But agree the other four have been reasonably solid.

This matches my eye test. The pass pro (a couple of Torrence whiffs apart) has been stellar. The run blocking has been good but a bit less consistent. The pass rush has been really good, better than expected, but we have played two dubious offensive line teams. Hope it holds up as the tests get greater.

I still think the decision not to play Young and his receivers properly in pre-season was a mistake. It might have made no difference at all, but not doing it as a new coach with a 2nd year QB who struggled as a rookie was a mistake IMO. It certainly can't have helped.

I agree with that. I think he is a guy you can throw to without him separating a ton and ask him to use his athleticism and body control to box a DB out and make a catch.

I've not seen a ton of the Buccs yet, but I like McMillan more than most I think around the draft. Will try and catch some of their game this week.

That was the sticking point last spring as I understand it. He wasn't in the market for a shorter, moderate pay day deal. You have to remember the first 4 or 5 years of his career he didn't make a lot of money. He got 3 years $21m from the Packers (the contract we inherited) but that is so far his only real pay day. He is looking to cash in as much as he can his last shot at making money before retirement.

York is awful. One of the worst kickers in the league. Carlson had a rough rookie ride with the Packers last year and was inconsistent at the end of his stint at Auburn after an ACL tear but he has a big leg and the genes in the family with his brother. I think he is an interesting break glass in case of emergency option potentially, but I wouldn't be desperate to cut Bass for him unless it really gets untenable. I think his foot did slip slightly as he landed (though maybe it always slides slightly and you are just not always looking for it) but he just missed his contact point on the ball and almost kicked it with the top of his instep like a soccer free kick technique where you are trying to make the ball move. It was a really funky technique breakdown and that is really concerning.

Belated Tuesday morning reflections (but on a Wednesday, yesterday was manic work wise): 1. It's time people just acknowledge that the Philadelphia defense is bad. Sean Desai carried the can for their woeful defensive performance in 2023 and they finally landed Vic Fangio who (while I think is legend is slightly overblown - in 24 years as an NFL DC and HC he has had a top 5 defense just FIVE times and four of them were with that extremely talented 49ers group which was more about talent than scheme IMO) is a proven defensive coordinator but it is STILL bad. I'm a big Howie Roseman fanboy but some of the decisions he has made in rebuilding this unit are questionable. Not least the Nolan Smith pick which was always a big reach to me. 2. When AJ Brown is missing the receiver group looks what it is - underwhelming. Smith had 76 yards and a touchdown and is a legit player, but Johnny Wilson isn't an NFL talent, the trade for Jahan Dotson was hoping a guy who has been disappointing in the league was suddenly going to "break out" - early returns are he won't, he is who he has shown us he is - and they ended up throwing six times for 23 yards to Britain Covey who is really on the roster as their punt returner. 3. Bijan Robinson is the best running back in the NFL right now and the Falcons need to continue to lean on him. Cousins looked better in week 2 than week 1 and Mooney, London, Pitts is a serviceable trio of pass catchers but Robinson is the star that can make this offense go. They need to ride him. 4. The Falcons defense is hard to work out. I think Raheem Morris can coach and they have some talent in the defensive backfield but I still worry about where the pass rush is coming from. Grady Jarrett is a stud and Matthew Judon can make some plays but beyond those guys I think it gets very thin very quickly and both of them are the wrong side of 30. The likely result of an offense that needs to run the ball to win and a defense that struggles to generate pressure on the passer is a team that is going to be in a ton of close games that go down to the end. I expect the Falcons to feature on RedZone's witching hour pretty regularly. 5. Nick Sirianni is toast. It's when, not if.

That counted. I think there were 6 pass plays called. 2 completions, 2 penalties, 1 scramble and a sack I think.

If Douglas wants a pay day? Yes they will. He is 30. If he is willing to do the sort of deal Hyde and Poyer were doing at that stage.... 2 years, moderate cash, spread over 3 years with a void year.... then sure I can see them bringing him back. But based on how last spring happened my guess is Douglas isn't looking for that. He is either looking for a long commitment or a proper pay day. Fair to say from the rumours out there that was one of the less straightforward conversations Beane had with agents last summer. If he has a better 2024 I don't see how that gets any easier?

I agree with this actually. Not sure it will survive... they have played two questionable Dlines... but through 2 weeks I have seen a LOT of bad offensive line play in the NFL - even from teams where it has traditionally been a strength: Cleveland, Baltimore; Dallas etc. The Bills have been one of the best 4 or 5 lines I have seen. And four of the Bills starters have been very good indeed. O'Cyrus Torrence is the one slight concern.

If the Bills planned to extend Douglas they'd have done it last summer. The fact that they left it a one year commitment and just moved money around for cap relief tells me they don't see him as part of the long term plan. Of course that could change but right here, right now, I say they let him walk.

Well against Miami Coleman had I believe 1 target and it was probably an uncatchable. But I watched every route back. I saw one route where I genuinly think he had separation. I agree the numbers should be taken with a pinch of salt but through two games I think the concerns about him seaparating are showing up on film. That isn't panic time. It doesn't mean he is worthless. But he is going to have to make plays when not necessarily open and the Bills are going to have to start thinking about trying to scheme him open and get him some free releases.

That is true, they are measuring different things. I'd be interested in how many of those "wins" they granted him vs the Dolphins. I think I saw one on tape. He did have a little more success against Arizona.

Honestly I find that difficult to believe. I have watched back every Bills offensive snap on the all22 and particularly at Miami I saw very little separation from Keon. I'd be interested to see how they are calculating "win rate". By Next Gen stats separation rate he is at 2.3. The only qualifying rookies worse than that are Harrison at 2 (which I can believe because he had a pretty wretched week 1) and Legette at 1.8. That feels more like what the eye test is telling me. (In average yards of separation by next gen) McMillan 3.8 Nabers 3.3 Worthy 3.3 Thomas 3.2 Mitchell 3 Odunze 2.7 McConkey 2.4 Coleman 2.3 Harrison 2 Legette 1.8

It's a big game for them, for sure. Other than Ronnie Stanley their oline has been gross through two weeks and their receiver room is a mess. They want to play Flowers wide because they have nobody else. But he is waaay more effective from the slot (no shock there) and it means teams are defending them narrow and cramping the middle of the field. It's kinda the worry I have had about the Bills offense but demonstrating itself in Baltimore. Right now I'd take the Bills receivers over the Ravens and that is a swap from where I was pre-season. Defensively I don't think they have played poorly and the Raiders got a tad fortunate at the weekend but still... they are 0-2 for a reason.