GunnerBill

When I was asked to go back and look at who I've mocked to the Bills over the years since Josh it is really staggering. I had them trading back into the end of 1 for DK in 2019, taking Higgins in 2020, taking Olave in 2022, taking Addison in 23, taking BTJ last year. Of those obviously the last 3 didn't get to them although Addison and BTJ definitely got into trade up range. But I've had receiver as a need before Diggs signed, while he was here and after he left. And the Bills just have not shown that urgency.

I am fine with Shakir at $15m AAV so long as their plan for the boundary is draft a guy. If their plan outside is trade / FA then not sure if Shakir fits.

It feels slightly the wrong way round to me to not be willing to go up for Addison and BTJ but then go up further for Egbuka. But there we are.

Oh the 2014 Bills definitely win more games and make the playoffs with Josh. For sure. I think McDermott makes less impact on 2014 than he does on 2015 too because for all his faults Marrone provided pretty stable coaching in 2014. He coached a pretty good season (aided by Schwartz in particular). 2015 the coaching was a clown show.

Oh the 2014 line was worse. We couldn't run it at all and it couldn't really pass protect.

Are you spying on me? 😃 I ask because I spent an hour this morning going back over Egbuka and I think I am moving him up to my WR2. I think after McMillan if you told me there was one receiver in this draft most likely to be a true #1 in 3 years time I would say it would be him. My concerns with him on a first watch were I don't see explosiveness. When I watch again I wonder if I am just not appreciating it because of how smooth he is and I know I made that mistake with Garrett Wilson in that same offense. I liked Wilson plenty fine but I didn't have an elite grade on him like I should have because I didn't see a lot of suddenness and I realised sometimes with guys who are this smooth in their route running and their breaks it is easy to miss the explosion. I think his 3 cone, his broad jump and his 40 time are going to be relevant to the evaluation on him. If he tests well on the explosiveness drills I will definitely end up with him as WR2 and might even end up with a 1st on him (indicative 2nd currently though within my top 32 - remember grades and round predictions not the same). So in answer to your question, let's put a pin in it and revisit after the Combine. It might be a yes.

I think late 2nd, nobody. The other WRs in that sort of range are more slot guys IMO. I think you are looking at late 3rd round / 4th round maybe into the 5th round for the next batch of perimeter players. Tai Felton, Maryland is someone worth keeping an eye on he has some speed, as is Troy Horton, Colorado State. Pat Bryant, Illinois is more a big bodied long strider but I think has a chance to be a legit boundary player (he just isn't maybe the vertical separator we need) and Will Sheppard from Colorado who might be second half of day 3 but I like his separation skills.

Oh I think there is quite a big difference between Rice and Shakir. But let's see how Rice looks post injury. He was averaging 96 yards per game through 3 games this year. I think he was gonna have a monster year before the injury.

Savion Williams is yet another big slot IMO. If we are picking a WR it HAS to be a true boundary guy IMO.

Oh you could definitely do worse. All 4 are very good players. The question is whether there is enough further improvement in them all to come to make it worth the opportunity cost of spending that money at other spots. Because as you identify at the start of your post only one of the 4 - Benford - plays a premium position. The ideal way to fill slot receiver, middle linebacker and running back are with one contract guys you draft between rounds 2 and 5 get great production out of and then recoup a pick in the comp formula when someone else pays them, or solid vets who come off other teams after their rookie deal and ideally have been slightly miscast in their roles so come at a bargain price - see Zach Baun in Philly this year

He had a 75% success rate in man in 2024 (that is regular season don't have a breakdown in playoffs). That isn't quite elite (his numbers in zone are elite) but its pretty good. In terms of separation allowed in man coverage in 2024 he was pretty much on par with Trent McDuffie and better than Sauce Gardner (though asked to play fewer man snaps than both I should say for the sake of full transparency.) I honestly think what this thread tells me is Benford's 2024 performance is very much still underrated by Bills fans and I think it is because he was a 6th round pick. Had he been picked round 1 and put up the same performance he did in 2024 I don't think anyone would be questioning whether he is worth what he is gonna get paid. But because he went 6th round and we have seen McDermott get serviceable play out of the likes of Wallace, Jackson, Hamlin as late day 3/UDFA guys the presumption is just Benford is a slightly better version of that kind of system player. But athletically he is much closer to Kaiir Elam (a first round pick) than he is to any of those guys and his production is closer to peak Tre White (it isn't quite there but it's close) than to any other corner that has been through here under this regime. Now the concussions are separate to that. I think 2 concusions in 2 weeks or a recurring concussion or a hit on an unrecovered concussion or whatever it was in the AFCCG is a legit reason to be wary of committing big money to him. You gotta be totally comfortable with his health situation before you extend him. Makes me more lean to let 2025 play out and then as long as he stays healthy tag him before FA and give yourselves time to work out a long term deal.

I agree to an extent. I think the sweet spot is probably somewhere between the two. Remember in 2023 he really only found that role 2nd half of the season. But I agree his role is a complimentary piece not a feature piece. The over reliance on him in 2024 was less a result of wanting to make Shakir a feature guy and more a result of not having a guy to feature IMO. I agree I wouldn't sign him at $20m AAV. Not unless that is simply a fluff number and the guaranteed portions are pretty small. Like if it is announced as 4 years, $80m but is really 3 years $45m I can live with that. Also depends how they go about trying to acquire a legit boundary guy. If they go a vet route - trade of FA - then paying that guy means no space for Shakir. If they go the draft route then I think you can find a way to do Shakir (at the lower rate though not at a true $20m AAV) for 3 years.

Ha - having just had a flick back through my early in the process mocks since 2019: 2019: Ed Oliver (exactly who we ended up with) 2020: Tee Higgins (we traded the pick for Diggs) From 2021 I started doing two rounders early in the process so: 2021 Round 1: Greg Newsome (went four spots before our pick to Cleveland) 2021 Round 2: Dillon Radunz (went seven picks before our pick to Tennesee) 2022 Round 1: Chris Olave (went fourteen picks before our pick to New Orleans) 2022 Round 2: Darian Kinnard (he then bombed at the Combine went round 5 to the Chiefs and is currently a backup on the Eagles) 2023 Round 1: Rashee Rice (went a full round later to the Chiefs) 2023 Round 2: Andrew Vorhees (then tore his ACL at the Combine and went round 5 to Baltimore where he missed his rookie season then has been in and out of the starting lineup) 2024 Round 1: Xavier Legette (went one spot before we eneded up picking but after we'd traded back) 2024 Round 2: Calen Bullock (went in round 3 to Houston where he had a very good rookie year). So leaving aside guys not available to them they'd have: Darian Kinnard, Rashee Rice, Andrew Vorhees, Xavier Legette and Calen Bullock Rather than: James Cook, Dalton Kincaid, O'Cyrus Torrence, Keon Coleman and Cole Bishop I'd say the Bills won on Cook and Torrence. Coleman - Leggette is a tbd wash. Rice and Bullock would have been darn nice. This is ONLY comparing my early mocks though. My final draft day mocks (one round only) were: 2019: Brian Burns (I also had them trading back into the first for DK Metcalf) 2020: no pick 2021: Travis Etienne 2022: Andrew Booth 2023: Jordan Addison 2024: Brian Thomas Jnr Of those only Burns and Booth reached us. One would have been a good pick the other? Not so much.

So I was higher on Bullock (my S#2) and Jaden Hicks (my S#3) who went round 4 to KC than Bishop (my S#4) as prospects, that's the first thing. That isn't to say I didn't like Bishop at all (I had a highish 3rd on him) but specifically as a Bills fit I preferred the Bullock idea because he is a natural center field, rangey, free safety. The Bills had brought back Rapp (box safety) and I presumed they would be looking for a compliment to his skillset. Instead they went for Bishop who is also a box safety type and here we are going into year 2 with him where he couldn't get on the field year 1 and when he did was brutal in coverage and we are talking about moving him to free safety where the coverage skills are more of a premium. I guess I just didn't and still don't totally understand the strategy there. I think Cole is a talented player. This is not me giving up on him at all. But after they picked him my guess was they would want to phase him in for Rapp and put Rapp back into a dime role. I still think we need a natural free safety.

He did have a spell middle of the year where he made some plays, but yes, the drops were a major issue. He does separate better than Keon though. He needs to catch the ball. That is going to be the deciding factor in whether he can take a step in 2025.

Possibly. 2014 was still a dreadful oline (the Chris Williams, Cyril Richardson and Kraig Urbik shuffle at left guard, Erik Pears at right guard, Henderson at right tackle) and a beaten up secondary. 2015 definitely. That was the best roster the Bills have had in my fandom if you exclude Quarterback. Unfortunately they had a bona fide clown as Head Coach. Even with Tyrod I think McDermott as Head Coach with the 2015 roster would have won at least 10 games. Very possibly 11 or 12. And I think Josh would contribute even more wins than coach. If you leave Rex as coach and just swap out Tyrod for Josh the 2015 Bills contend for a Superbowl.

The board was hollowed out there. If the draft fell this way they could have gone Watts with the first second rounder I suppose, but there were no corners left worth a 2nd round pick

He actually does not get burned in man. He is pretty good in man and the analytics back that up. He is not a Josh Norman redux (Norman was an elite zone player, but below average in man). He is really good. Not top 5 good but that is just the market. If a guy is top 12 or so (Benford is) then when they come up they go into the top 5 AAV and then fall down again as other guys come up. Without the health issues I'd have no concerns paying him. He is worth the money. But the concussions are a real concern. I would have done him as a priority this offseason before the two concussions in two weeks. Now I am a little more reluctant.

28-30 is where I guess it lands. Boundary receivers that good rarely hit FA. He only is because he is on the same team as a true elite guy in Chase. I'm trying to remember the last prime age guy as good as Higgins to hit the market?

The point of mock drafts, especially early in the process is not to try and correctly predict each pick. It is to try and play through scenarios in terms of players likely available in a certain range. Where is the run on tackles likely to start? When do the second tier of edge rushers last until? For example going through this process pretty much crystalised for me that if the Bills want a corner early in this draft they likely need to be willing to use their first pick on one or be willing to trade up in the second round. If they don't there are too many corner needy teams in the middle of round 2 who are a threat to take them off the board. And by the way.... that is exactly what teams do. Every team does it. Every scouting staff in the run up to the draft run in house mock drafts for exactly that purpose. It gives you a feel for the first couple of rounds. If you don't like it, that is your prerogative. Don't open the thread.

I liked Scourton more than I expected to actually. He has a lot more nuance to his rush plan than I expected (he is probably the most refined pass rusher of the whole class tbh) and he really uses his hands well. He had a bit more pop on his Purdue tape than at A&M where they had him playing heavier, but even there I think he is a better pass rusher than you might immediately give him credit for. I think he is pretty scheme versatile. You could use him as a 5T in a 34 or he can play as a defensive end in a 43. I did teeter over a first round grade on him until I watched the Texas game. I think against two legit tackles (who will both go in the first two rounds) he struggled a bit. I ended up with a high 2nd. But if he drops a few pounds to get back to Purdue weight I think he can be a 3 down edge rusher. He has all the other tools you'd look for.

And the 2024 class just got ranked 30/32 on NFL.com

That is standard practice around the league Day 3 is the scouts day. If you think Brandon Beane is an expert on all the guys they pick day 3 that is just not how it works. Days 1 and 2 are the execs. Day 3 is known as "the working man's day" and it is when you find out how good your road scouts are.

That's the one. Although the Jones contract was pretty much at the owner's insistence.

Yea he did some scouting when he was promoted assistant GM in Carolina. Dave Gettleman (who got the job over Beane after Beane had been the acting GM when Hurney was fired the first time) took him under his wing and taught him a bit. But he came up on the football ops side. Joe Schoen was the talent evaluator. He is a career scout. I know from people in the building when it came to personnel Beane trusted Joe more than he trusted himseld. I think Gaine and Grey are fine personnel people and I am sure Brandon trusts them. But not like he trusted Joe Schoen.