GunnerBill

I don't think @NoSaint is questioning that reality. He is just saying it is, as a system, strange. And if you were starting with a blank sheet of paper it is not the model you'd design.

Because in football there are high leverage moments time and again when everyone knows what you want to do. And in those moments scheme can only do so much. It comes down to mano vs mano and your guy has to beat theirs. And teams use the sideline as the extra defender and protect with inside leverage so that is where the opportunity is. You have to have the players to take it.

We all are. I obviously love winning blow outs. But I hope the first time we get the ball last needing a touchdown to win is not in the playoffs. Cos I wanna "find out" before that.

The argument I make is in the biggest moments when everyone knows you are passing you will need guys who can win outside. Avoiding being in those high leverage situations is a good strategy. But at some you are likely to get there.

Renfrow got 2 years $32m from the Raiders. $16m AAV. That was a couple of years ago but for a true slot (which Shakir is IMO and Renfrow was) I think that is the market plus inflation. I reckon that probably puts him in and around the $20m per range. I could see something like 4 years, $78m, $19.5 AAV as being his market if he has the sort of year he is on pace for this year (around 1,000 yards). Give it two years of that sort of production and another year of inflation and let him hit FA and he may go even slightly above that with another team. EDIT: to be clear I am not saying he is a MUST sign at that price. It is high for a slot receiver for me and if in the crunch they still struggle without an outside guy I'd be wary. But that is a realistic look at his market IMO.

The ability to win against press outside.

They all had elements that you could latch onto but they all had major flaws and weaknesses too. Rex was lazy and outdated. Marrone was a micro manager and an ass of a personality. Gailey had zero clue about defense. Jauron was cautious to a fault and Mularkey had no grasp of detail.

It is more about what I see on tape rather than whether we are or are not throwing.

Correct. As @Kirby Jackson said earlier. Shakir is about as expected. Coleman too (but my expectations were not high). Hollins slightly better. Samuel a fair bit worse. MVS as expected.

Its not about numbers. That was where I had them pre-season. I need to see more before I move them up.

I'll modify it to bottom 4. Woah boy the Ravens group has struggled. We will get a test of it Sunday Night but they are in my conversation now for bad WR groups.

Not sure I agree with that. It's still a people business first and foremost. If word gets out that he leads you up the path and then ultimately won't commit it will count against him. When your name gets a mark against it in the league it can be tough to overcome. I think he will get interviews this year. But I doubt he sweeps the board for interview requests as he has the last two years.

He always looked faster with the ball in his hands than without to me. I said that multiple times before the draft.

Daniel Jones was DEFINITELY better than what they could have got in the top 5 even of the 2022 draft. That was the Pickett / Willis class and sure they coulda picked Mr Irrelevant he ended up being quite good, but otherwise that wasn't a class to find your QB in. I think their mistake was not following the Bills blueprint and taking the goodwill and capital they had built up from 2022 to risk going back to take a step forward. They felt they should try and roll with it. But I don't think that was because they thought Jones was the long term answer - and the proof of that was it was a 3 year extension not the 5 or 6 year extensions team signing franchise QBs give out. It was because they thought they could get the serviceable level they got in 2022 out of him and they weren't willing to risk it all on pitch or toss to try and get up for a Young or a Stroud (you'd have had to go from #25 to #2 and when Beane made his move from #21 to #7 but had lots of capital to do it with including a 2nd first round pick) and they didn't think Will Levis was better than Daniel Jones. In my opinion that is the the conclusion that the actual moves they have made lead you to. I still think the Jones extension was a mistake btw... because you could get Daniel Jones level play out of Sam Darnold or Geno Smith or Baker Mayfield or Jameis Winston or someone for a fraction of the cost. But I don't think it was ever because they believed that they could turn him into Josh Allen. Or even anything close to that.

I agree it was a predictable error. And they hired him because they thought he was part of the Josh Allen story - which he was. But they didn't have to believe he "made" Josh Allen to hire him. That's nuts. They thought he could improve their football team and they likely after an era in which they been mis-aligned at GM and HC with multiple combinations wanted to replicate the Bills model where they brought in a due with a pre-existing familiarity and relationship. Remember Schoen was hired first.

I don't think he thought that for a minute. I think he thought that Jones was a better option than anyone he could get at 25th overall in the 2023 Draft and on the back of a season where they not only made the playoffs but won a playoff game accepting a step back to go forward was not the right option. That judgment was wrong. And it likely will cost Schoen and Daboll their jobs unless the Giants can win at least 7 games. But that was the judgment. Brian Daboll never thought he was the entire reason for Josh Allen or that he could make Daniel Jones better than Allen.

Don't need to give him any additional title. If the success continues throughout the year just re-up his deal, make him the best paid OC in football and convince him that leaving that gig to go be a Head Coach in Cleveland or Chicago or any of those perennial wheel spinner franchises isn't a smart play. Ben Johnson will be an interesting case study. Having withdrawn his candidacy for jobs two offseasons in a row is he still the hottest thing in a headset next January or actually are teams moving on from him, getting a bit lukewarm on his credentials. If there is any sense of that it means the next hot new things will be less willing to wait it out I think.

I think it was supposed to be wider than just GMs. It was how does the football operation work. But given that I'm slightly surprised the Bills are not higher. I absolutely think Howie Roseman is the best GM in football when it comes to talent evaluation and roster building. But I can argue the Bills overall front office - coherence with ownership, coherence with coaching, strategic decision making etc is superior. Roseman's fallen out with 3 coaches and despite their run in 2022 I'm not sold that Sirianni was a great coaching hire either.

I mean I took a TON of heat at the time for saying I thought it was concerning. Back then the consensus here was a coach showing fire is a good thing. But it was an uncontrolled rage. And coaches who lose control lose their guys. By the middle of his second season his guys were asking the Head Coach to fire him per other posters on this forum. It doesn't surprise me one bit.

I do think Beane might have crushed day 3 of this draft. Gable (injury sucks) has looked fantastic in pre-season and limited reps, Solomon has a ton of talent, Davis is coming on slowly. I can see a route to all 3 of them being starters for the Bills in two seasons time. They are at worst solid depth players as rookies. Need to see more as we go from SVPG but hopefully he can add his name to that list. But the other thing the list in your post above shows is how well the Bills coach and develop players. Their Monday to Saturday coaching is among the best in football, without a doubt. I look at Shakir and Williams. Both in their rookie years struggled. Shakir was running into coverage rather than into space, and Williams last year was like a guy whose head was on the wrong way round, just spinning and smashing into things with little feel for the position. Now Khalil looks like this team's best receiver and Williams just had his best game as a Bill. It is tempting to think players just arrive on campus from college able to perform as they end up performing. But it is not true. The development of both those guys is testament to coaching. And then the Cam Lewis, Ja'Marcus Ingram, Alec Anderson, Baylon Spector crew... developed from UDFAs and 7th round picks to guys you can rely on to be where they need to be on Sunday... add them to Levi Wallace and Tyrel Dodson and Ike Boettger and Ryan Bates and Dane Jackson.... this regime has been turning throw away guys into contributors for as long as they've been here. I think they deserve more credit for it.

Friday morning reflections!!! 1. Flagfest! Seriously makes a game borderline unwatchable and while some of it is just sloppy football that needs calling out I thought that crew was very ticky tacky. A couple of the illegal contact calls on defense and holding calls on offense are real technical fouls I think you need to let go for the sake of having a watchable game. 2. I'm really not sure where the Cowboys think their roster is at. They have the worst running back situation in the NFL, which negates what should be a strength - the run blocking of their offensive line and forces them to throw with only really CeeDee as a viable option to throw to. I've seen criticism here and elsewhere of Dak, and sure, we all know Dak is overpaid, but I don't think this is a Quarterback problem it's a roster problem. Their offensive roster build is a mess. 3. On defense they also are underperforming their talent right now. The reason for that is they made a pretty significant schematic change going from Dan Quinn to Mike Zimmer. Quinn is about smaller, faster guys, penetrative defensive linemen and long corners who play with good instincts in largely zone coverage (think not to dissimilar to what McDermott runs in Buffalo). Mike Zimmer, while still a 4-3 base guy, likes big bodies on the defensive line, aggressive linebackers who attack the line of scrimmage and physical DBs that can play man coverage. 4. Watching the Giants offense is like watching too many drought Bills teams. The FG they kick to make it 15-12 from the Dallas 3 at the start of the 3rd is a FG decision I feel like I saw the Bills have to make so many times in that era. "We might never get here again so 4th and 3 we should go" as against "if we go for it and don't convert, this becomes a two score game and we are done." I thought they should have gone for it, I understand kicking it. I am delighted not to live in that world anymore. 5. Malik Nabers is legit. There were people I spoke to in the draft community who had him as WR1 over Harrison. I didn't I had Harrison #1 and Nabers #2 but I had him as an elite prospect and a gap after the two of them to Odunze. To be playing this well on an offense where he is all they have is a testament to his abilities. If the Giants can find a way to get him a Quarterback next season he will be unplayable.

We will beat Baltimore. I am very confident for Sunday. The Ravens are more Lamar dependent right now than the Bills are Allen depenedent (imagine saying that two years ago) and history tells me McDermott and co are pretty good at holding Lamar in check.

No. They weren't.

So it turns out people are talking about him?

It was not so much that I wasn't in favour. I was pretty critical of Dorsey going back to the middle of his first year for the vanilla nature of his offence that stressed high end execution when he didn't have much high end talent to work with. I'd have dispensed with him after the 2023 season but I was surprised by the timing of his firing. I wouldn't necessarily have done it when the Bills did. However, having heard some of what was going on inside, his players lobbying for a change etc, it makes more sense to me. I've been pretty optimistic on Joe Brady from the start. And so far so good.