GunnerBill

The thing is the choice was never give them the run or the deep ball. It was give them the middle or give them the edges. When the Bills tried to play with a heavier box on drives 2 and 3 the Ravens just went to the swing passes and flares to the backs outta the backfield and attacked the edges of our defense and because the second level players are all backups they had the advantage there. In drives 2 and 3 they successfully bottled Henry up as a rusher. Maybe they should have started the game that way for the one play they didn't but even if they had it wasn't a sustainable way to play defense against them either. Because the Ravens immediately had a counter to that and marched down the field with seven passes to running backs (five to Hill, two to Henry) including two touchdown passes.

Yea the facts, uncomfortable as they are, are that a clearly diminished Stefon Diggs still has more yards and touchdowns through four games than the Bills leading receiver. That is not me saying "we should have kept Diggs." Even as one of his biggest fans from way before his Bills tenure it was clear to me by the back end of last season that it had run its course. But there was no element of losing him that made us better even though he isn't the guy now he was in his prime here. To get better they had to improve the receiver room and they didn't do that. Whether they should make a deadline move for me is very dependent on where they stand at that point. I'm just not sure this team is a contender in 2024. I wasn't before the season and I'm not now. And I don't know that a half season rental of one of these vet receivers moves the dial enough to make me think they are. If we get to the deadline and we are say 7-2 or something, sure, worth the price, make the move. If we are more in the 5-4 territory honestly I'd let it ride and keep as much of our powder dry for next offseason as possible.

That is a Jags like move. Splashy HC hire followed by suckitude. Urban. Doug. Bill.

Josh definitely has a tendency to bail early when he doesn't quite know what he is seeing. That is because he is still an athlete first and a processor second. That isn't to say he is a bad processor before anyone jumps on it. But I just think he is still more comfortable relying on his body than his mind when things get messy. The Ravens weren't actually blitzing that much. What they were doing was dropping out linemen and bringing linebackers a ton. And it was just creating a ton of chaos and confusion.

I really don't expect the Bills to be in on this one. Doesn't strike me as their type of person and the contract makes it more tricky as well. And then his age is another factor. I think Cooper and Hopkins are both more realistic moves than Adams. I'm not saying he wouldn't be a massive upgrade to the room - he would - I'd just be surprised if this is a move the Bills want to make.

The two drives after the first touchdown the Bills went base personnel and heavy boxes and Henry had 5 carries for 17 yards on the ground. Unfortunately the Ravens marched down the field twice and scored two touchdowns because the Bills in base were totally incapable of stopping them attacking the edges and the little running back flare routes. It was an overreaction. They hit you with one great play where they called it perfectly, executed perfectly and hit a long touchdown and the Bills panicked and made an adjustment that led to 14 points on the next two drives. They should have stayed in their defense and tried to settle in. Instead they ended up with a guy who doesn't belong on an NFL roster being absolutely brutalised in coverage for two straight series and 21-3 behind.

They definitely did.

I just don't think they will change two at the same time. I would. But that doesn't feel like their MO. They are more cautious.

Well Rapp is likely out. I'd make two changes and give Edwards a shot with Bishop. But I think they will probably change one.

See I just don't agree. I'd have started that way too. And I'd have stuck with it after the first play. The overreacted to one run IMO (which was well designed and really well executed) and it cost them the next two drives which were the Justice Hill show.

Oh good.

Yea I have my doubts too but I agree with @dave mcbride in that the Baltimore game isn't a reason to panic. It exposed some of the weaknesses we knew were there, sure. But I didn't think they had gone away at 3-0 and I don't think they are season sinking at 3-1 after a bad loss. I feel the same after 4 weeks as I did about the Bills coming in. They are a playoff team. They are not a championship team.

Williams had his best game as a Bill against the Jags but he was dreadful Sunday night - thought fair play to him he made the splash play with the turnover. That is the issue with him at the moment it feels a bit feast or famine. I did say this before the season. Not an NFL level player anymore.

I'd give a 4th. 3rd feels a bit rich for a safety who you then immediately (as in right after the season) need to pay. He is someone I thought about earlier though. Would they trade him in division?

Don't need to persuade me. I didn't want him on the roster. I accepted the injuries meant he probably had to be to start the year but coming out of FA and the draft he was on my cut list.

Nah I think they are fully done with Toney.

Yea it was pretty consistent all day. They used the Bills aggressiveness against them and got OL players to the send level onto our backup linebackers. That wasn't accidental. It was very well planned. The Ravens outcoached us and outplayed us. The offensive plan, especially first half, was masterful from Todd Monken.

That is if Mixon plays.

Yea I'm willing to listen to they should have gone to that sooner. Or to the bear front type approach and played with three defensive tackles (I suspect they hadn't practiced that because it is generally more a response to outside zone teams and I doubt they expected as much outside zone from the Ravens as they got). What I'm not accepting is they should have just gone to a heavy look and more men in the box. I'm not sure that was the changeup that was going to work for them and the evidence is when they tried their heavier personnel look it failed. But the first snap, I mean that can happen. It's frustrating, but it can. I just think their personnel really limited their options. They have a glaring weakness at the moment at the second level and then no NFL starting talents behind them at safety. I think Babich had a rough first half but in my view that was because he went to too much heavy personnel rather than too little.

I don't understand how putting more guys in the box when those guys are bad is going down swinging. They tried the going down swinging approach the first two drives of the 2nd half. They basically just told Williams and Spector, screw your normal responsibilities and crash the line every play. And they forced two three and outs before the turnover. The issue was as soon as Henry did break the line on 2nd down on the next drive running round the left end he was away for serious yardage because there was no 2nd level we'd emptied it out. Now if you want to argue they should have gone to that plan sooner, sure, I'll listen to it because that was a "we gotta try and stop them dictating" throw of the dice. But the just put more men in the box and bigger bodies.... I mean Morrow actually got a decent run stop grade from PFF - the best on the Bills - but he also got the worst coverage grade by a LONG stretch (27 fwiw) and he was in coverage for 5 of Justice Hill's 6 receptions. That is my point. We gave them a light box, they ran it. We tried going heavier they brutalised Morrow in the pass game (Hill was their leading receiver). You get to a point where you can't stop anything. I think Joe is great but I'd have gone the other way. I'd have stayed in nickel and accepted that they might run it down the field as much as they wanted and tried to rally and tackle and then stiffen in the redzone. What you might call the Frazier, 2020 Chiefs regular season, plan. Because with the personnel available we didn't have the personnel to stop them otherwise. Whichever way we went they had an answer.

No, but that's my point... your alternative is Lewis or the safeties. And they are weaknesses to start with.

I'm going to do my own count when I get to the A22 but my strong suspicion is the Bills heavy boxes were overwhelmingly 2nd and 3rd drive for the Ravens. That is when they were in base. And those were the two worst drives of the game. So sure, they gave up a couple of really bad long runs in nickel. But they just looked totally incapable in base. More of that was not the answer IMO. I respect Joe a ton, I disagree with him here though.

The light boxes point is a fair one, but I'm not sure I agree the answer was to go heavier boxes. With who? The two series they tried to play base and brought Morrow in and played with more in the box they were brutal. Jackson just kept throwing dump offs to Justice Hill on Morrow's side and watching him zoom by. Could they have brought their safeties up more often? Yea but they are worried about doing that because they know they don't have a safety on the roster capable of playing center field on his own. It's easy to say "do all this stuff differently" in isolation. Personally I think you have to look at the personnel they have available. I think Babich panicked in the first half and made bad adjustments. Monken definitely won that battle, hands down, but I think the defensive talent is a definite limiting factor in a game like that. Who did he want to bring into the box to help? His options are Nicholas Morrow (doesn't belong on an NFL roster), Cam Lewis (backup at best), Damar Hamlin (backup at best), Cole Bishop (rookie barely getting his feet wet), Joe Andreessen (rookie UDFA). Hell you could have put all five of them in together and I'm not sure it would have made a difference. EDIT: on offense I'm in a bit more agreement. They weren't beaten by blitzes. They were beaten by confusion. They didn't know who was coming and who was dropping and the OL was constantly missing assignments more than whiffing on blocks. It was that they weren't passing off, were doubling guys while free rushers came, the communication and the execution was dreadful. Maybe a game where they missed Mitch Morse's experience?

I mean.... he still can't. He runs 3 routes. Now he is outstanding in those situations. But the lack of a route tree knock on him was totally legit.

He is an upgrade on Hollins but he plays a different role IMO. Is he a significant upgrade on Samuel? If he is that is because the Samuel signing has busted.