GunnerBill

It is definitely something that I spotted. Particularly where I mention on that failed play action early. It doesn't freeze Hunter because it doesn't ever look like a handoff. I wonder if the left hand injury is playing a part in that?

Breaking: Aaron Rodgers has fired Robert Saleh

It wasn't that it was an overthrow so much as he ended up with it outside and while I still agree with you Hollins can do a better job adjusting I had put pretty much all the blame on him before I saw the endzone view and the throw was just in the wrong place. It was a slot post route all day and Allen let it get away to the outside. You can't miss outside there.

How does it? They pass with him on the field, they run with him on the field. It isn't even the case that every pass when he is out there is off play action.

What I meant there is there is no "tell" about what play is coming based on formation, personnel grouping, shotgun vs under center. You might pick up on some gameflow stuff, sure. But he isn't showing you when they come to line "okay this is a passing first down" vs a rushing first down.

They definitely had reload or mini-rebuild years between eras. They went three years without winning playoff game between the two Giants Superbowls (2008 Brady's injury was a factor but 2009 and 2010 were a reload / mini-rebuild). Other than Brady only three players started both Giants Superbowl losses - Wilfork, Welker and Light. They turned over that roster a ton in that period and had 11-5 (Brady affected) and 10-6 seasons.

True to an extent, sure. But while I've never been the biggest JuJu guy he is not Mack Hollins level of inept.

Nah. Our receivers ARE trash.

Your eyes must work very differently to mine. I thought Coleman came close twice but clearly stayed in bounds. And even so that wouldn't be an example of what I was asking. Even if that was a wrong call (it wasn't) it was a wrong call that they upheld on replay. I was asking for an example of a clearly correct call that was then overturned to a clearly wrong call by replay.

I'm not as strident as some on the Kincaid play, I do think there is a chance that gets overturned - but I think there is a better chance they stay with the call. While Kincaid doesn't drop the ball it is moving a lot and the point definitely comes into contact with the ground. That isn't a problem as long as the player is judged to have established clear possession but because of how much the ball was moving during the process I think they'd have said Kincaid hadn't and therefore the tip of the ball hitting the ground means the ground assisted him controlling the ball. It certainly isn't a catch by rule. It is a judgment call. Had it been called a catch on the field I think they'd have found insufficient evidence to overturn had Houston challenged, but given it was called incomplete I think there was enough doubt they'd have stayed with that call. EDIT: The Cook one for me is the one that would have been an entirely performative challenge that you had absolutely zero chance of winning.

Same. I was all about the trade up for Addison in 2023. I was 50/50 on whether Thomas was worth it. Like you I'd have been fine with it, but wasn't necessarily banging the table for it. Put it this way though I'd have preferred it to a trade back and taking Keon. And I don't want to just be out here Keon bashing. I always try and leave my draft thoughts at the draft and evaluate them in the NFL based on what they put on tape in the NFL. But so far most of what I feared is manifesting. He has made some plays, so I'm still hopeful maybe he is one of those guys who you bring along slowly and suddenly he takes off after Thanksgiving, but I have some concerns too. Agree, it was a reset or a reload rather than a rebuild. But it's slightly semantics "mini-rebuild" is probably fine as a descriptor too. Every franchise QB who has a 10-15 year career has one or two of these years in there somewhere because your core guys at other spots age out more quickly.

Right now trading up for Brian Thomas, even if it means not having Cole Bishop, looks like the move to have made. Like the year before going up further and getting Addison was preferable to a smaller trade up for Kincaid.

Yea I was not really here getting into "are we passing enough on first down." I agree that 7/25 still feels too light for me. I was focussing on our lack of success doing it (the Ravens games wasn't much better... 4 from 11 for 20 something yards I think). When you put a tendency on tape that you are run on first down team and then you choose to throw and you STILL can't move the ball on first down it's a problem. And to round back to where you started if we can't move the ball with any regularity on first down through the air it will make them less inclined to do it, so one problem exacerbates another. I didn't count them up but based on @mannc numbers above I make it 18 - one of which was a designed Allen naked boot in the 3rd quarter. So 17 running back runs, 7 passes, 1 designed QB run. I sort of see the wider point you make, but I'm not sure what this offense does best at the moment. Working out what we do well would help but I have no idea what it is.

Under which philosophy?

Morning all. I said yesterday in one of the threads I was going to dig into yesterday's first down passing struggles when the all22 was out. So here we go. I think I wrongly said yesterday we were 1-7 for -7 yards on first down passes yesterday. We were actually 2-7 for -8. Our only two completions both lost yardage. That is not acceptable given 1st down is the most advantageous passing down in the NFL AND we have put on tape that we are a run first team on 1st down this season which should give us better looks when we do pass. It was a catalogue of failures on Sunday and we have gotta get it fixed. Here is my breakdown: 11:30 (1st) - 1st and 20 - Shotgun, empty. 11 personnel with a back (Davis) split wide. It is the Hollins deep shot. Ball not quite as well thrown as on first look. Hollins is clearly running a post. Allen has to leave that ball inside. Play design - good Blocking - excellent Receiver - okay, could still have tracked it better Quarterback - poor, needs to leave the ball inside 2:55 (1st) - 1st and 10 *drive starter* - under center, offset I formation. 22 personnel with Gilliam in the backfield. Designed play action boot to the right with Knox, Kincaid and Hollins in the pattern. Texans defensive end (Hunter) never bites on the play action and Allen is forced to throw away. Don't love the call, Josh's attempt to sell the play action is perfunctary. Play design - poor Blocking - fine (they are blocking down, Hunter being free is by design they want him to bite on the PA) Receivers - fine, Knox and Kincaid both get some separation. Quarterback - okay, would like him to sell the PA better but likely makes no difference to the play. 7.55 (2nd) - 1st and 10 *drive starter* - Shotgun, Pro Set, 11 personnel with Samuel and Cook flanking Allen. Samuel in motion, RPO, Allen fakes the hand off to Cook and throws to Samuel in flat. Linebackers sees it all the way. Loss of a yard. Play design - poor, felt forced to manufacture touch for Samuel andTexans read it all the way. Blocking - fine Receiver - poor, showed zero burst or wiggle Quarterback - fine 4:13 (2nd) - 1st and 10 - under center, Singleback, 12 personnel with Anderson in as extra lineman. Designed PA screen to Cook slipping out the left. Brilliantly designed all three interior OL are out there with one man to block to get Cook an easy 5 yards and if they block the DB who starts to rally to the ball too it could be a touchdown play. They fail to execute the first of those blocks, Cook blown up in the backfield for a loss of 7. Play design - excellent Blocking - disaster Receiver - fine, nothing Cook could do Quarterback - good, Allen actually sells this one pretty well. 1:02 (2nd) - 1st and 10 - *drive starter*, Shotgun, singleback (Davis) and 11 personnel. Allen throws the out to Kincaid who can't bring it in. Probably should catch but the timing was off from Josh he throws it too early when falling back (not sure he needed to be the pocket was holding better than he imagined). Do I want Kincaid to make that catch? 100%. But Josh has to do better than that too. Play design - good Blocking - good Receiver - poor, should catch. Quarterback - poor, timing off and doesn't need to be backpedalling. 9:34 (3rd) - 1st and 10 - under center, Singleback and 12 personnel with Anderson as additional lineman. Josh designed one step drop and quick hitter on the slant. Coleman doesn't seem to know the play (wasn't an audible or an RPO) head isn't round ball hits side of helmet incomplete. He had inside leverage on the corner if he catches it he just has the safety to beat and it could be a touchdown. Play design - good Blocking - N/A (quick hitter no chance of pressure) Receiver - disaster, doesn't seem to know the play Quarterback - good 0:32 (4th) - 1st and 10 - *drive starter*, Singleback, 11 personnel but Kincaid in the slot. In his own endzone Allen tries back shoulder throw to Coleman. Pocket holds up pretty well and he has Shavers on an inbreaking route to the right which probably picks up 4 or 5 yards against zone coverage but he doesn't trust his eyes, comes off that and tries to force it to Coleman 1 on 1 who has zero separation against Lassiter in press man. Play design - okay, don't mind the design (leave aside for a secons should we run) but maybe someone Josh trusts more than the guy you just called off the practice squad getting the free release in the slot would have been an idea? Blocking - good Receiver - poor, Coleman loses the rep from the off Quarterback - poor, understand he is thinking gotta get it out of my hands and he doesn't entirely trust Shavers inside but I think he takes the wrong throw. Summary: It was a myriad of issues affecting us in our first down passing. One of the reassuring things was there isn't a really predictable tell to Brady's play calling. He uses some 1st down passes to start drives, some of it is heavy personnel, some of it is 4 or 5 wides, there is a nice mix of playaction, quick game and pure shotgun dropback. There were a couple of calls I didn't like and I do question having Shavers on the field in a big spot on that final possession (presume they were hoping he was a decoy to get Hollins free outside but didn't work) but this was not primarily a play design / play calling failure. Three of those plays - the deep ball to Hollins, the play action screen to Cook and the quick slant to Coleman had the potential to be really explosive plays for the offense and on each of them execution (firstly Allen and Hollins, then the interior offensive line and then Coleman) failed us. But the most common theme among the seven plays is receiver failure... only on the blown up play action boot and Cook when blown up on the play action screen do I thinm the receiver(s) on the play did a good enough job. And that is a worry. Josh Allen, especially first half, played poorly. That is disappointing but not a long term worry. The receivers have to be better though and unlike Josh they don't have 5 or 6 years of tape proving they can be better to fall back on. I agree with @Bocephuz having watched that game back. The poor blocking on the screen mentioned above apart the oline played better than it appeared on tv.

There were definitely a couple of early bails to the right last night. One if he hung on a split second longer he had a guy come open. The other one I noticed I thought he shoulda stood in but he might have ended up throwing it away anyway.

There are two comp picks coming for Gabe and Leonard Floyd as well. Probably two 5ths (although Gabe has an outside chance of being a 4th). Looks like: One 1st Two 2nds One 3rd Two 4ths Two 5ths Two 6ths I agree that is hardly hoarding picks in the sense of premium picks. What we really need from out draft picks is an early pick to turn into a difference maker. That is sorely missing on this roster IMO. Collecting more Benfords and Shakirs and Bernards is all well and good but difference makers are missing.

I think sucks is harsh but underwhelming? Definitely. And you are right what he is offering as a receiver has to be better to accept his failings as a blocker. Ertz was my comparison coming out. He was always utter garbage as a blocker too. But he being a receiver level talent as a pass catcher meant it was worth the trade off. It is true to say teams are defending the Bills at the moment by trying to take the middle of the field (where Kincaid works) away because they have nothing outside and that hurts him, but he needs to do more with his opportunities too. Too many mistakes so far this year.

If it looks to you like his elbow was in I recommend a trip to your local optician. It was clearly out.

What you have seen worse calls where clearly the right call was made on the field and replay overturned to a clearly wrong call? I haven't.

Just looked back at that Allen get his helmet like a second before the ball is snapped. I doubt anyone even knows he is out of the tent at that point. He is sprinting to get his helmet back but the playcall is definitely already in and they are at the line. A mistake of that magnitude? No. He is very clearly on the white. You could ask 100 NFL refs to look at that play and overturn a no catch and not 1 would do it.

Alpha, I am 100% with you on all of this.

Beane has zero authority to fire McDermott.

I am not. He landed clearly on the white. To argue otherwise is nonsensical.

The odds aren't small. They are non-existant. It was like being one number away from winning the lottery. It was close but you were clearly one number away. You can take your ticket in and ask the man to check it and he will say "ahhh sorry bud you are one number away." Would have been performative theatrics and nothing more.