GunnerBill

That should have have been a surprise though. That is who he was in college.

No I love Barron. The question is a rheotircal one because it is out there in draft land. I am pretty sure he can play on the boundary. I have him about Will Johnson in my grades. That said arm measurements matter for him. If his arms come in small and that limits him a bit more to inside I'd have to move him down a bit.

sorry, should have added Walker (although I do question the fit with the Bills which is why he didn't come to mind). I wouldn't take Williams at #30 even if he is still there. I have a low 2nd round grade on him. Agree he probably goes top half of the first but I see a very limited pass rusher there. I think it probably is a slightly longer shortlist than normal. Might narrow it down post FA.

I am definitely coming around to this idea. They ran five plays I believe against the Bills that the people who look at these things could find no evidence of them running at all in the 2024 regular season. And then zero that met that description vs the Eagles. Why would that be? I think there is two things: 1. I think familiarity. They play the Bills so often that they are worried about them cottoning on to certain tendencies etc. In the regular season game I commented on the fact that both teams did major tendency breaking on defense for example. 2. I think Andy Reid considers the Bills their biggest rival. I remember an interview with Sir Alex Ferguson, the former Manchester United manager about the rivalry with Arsene Wenger's Arsenal in the late 90s early 00s and he admitted they prepared more for Arsenal than for Real Madrid, Barcelona, Juventus, Bayern Munich etc in the big Champions League ties. The reason he said he thought they were the best team they played. Didn't matter than the trophy hauls might not have said that, Arsenal always got United's best shot because he saw them as the team he had to get past to keep the dynasty on the road.

I think in 2023 they were just off base and in actual fact the Bills probably underachieved by a win or two. In 2024 I think they were possibly too high on our divisional opponents, but I think they were pretty much right on the Bills and we probably overachieved by a win or two (especially if you consider they almost certainly win week 18 if they needed the game).

Okay, so my list of guys I'd consider at #30 who I think have a reasonable chance to be there: Defensive Tackles (working on the basis that Mason Graham is already off the board) Walter Nolen - I have a 1st on Nolan and while I slightly fear the Bills will just see him as too similar to Ed Oliver he is just better for me than the other guys likely to be in and around this pick. He may well now be gone. When I did his film and graded him in mid-January having a true first him was a bit of an outlier. It seems since the Senior Bowl the world has caught up. Would you want he and Ed out there together vs Baltimore or Detroit? Probably not. But Nolen is a very good run defender and against anyone other than the elite power run teams I think you could combine he and Ed and just blow interior offensive lines up. Kenneth Grant - You just don't find many guys at this size that move this well. Experience playing both in the A gap and the B gap, would dominate in the run game, and definitely is the most natural of the three DTs I'd consider in terms of his fit next to Ed Oliver. Actually thought he rushed the passer better in 2024 than in 2023, even if his sack production went down slightly though he probably gives you less in the pass game than the other two. Derrick Harmon - I'd love to slide back and take Harmon after picking up an extra draft pick but I'd be willing to do it at #30 as well if that made sense. Mainly a 3T in college with the most pressures of any interior Dlineman in the FBS last season, but plays with the technique and pad leverage to play as a 1T. Seen him compared to DaQuan Jones and I see that, but I think he has a bit more juice than Jones. If he can add like 5-8lbs in weight he is built to be one of the more active 1Ts in football IMO. Defensive Ends (working on the basis that Abdul Carter, James Pearce and Mike Green are already off the board) Princely Umanmielen - I'm higher on Princely than others but he is similar to Mike Green for me in that the risk you'd take is he is not at this stage an all around defensive end. He is just a pass rusher. But he has length, he has bend, he has explosive burst.... the knocks on him other than his edge setting in the run game are his hands could improve and he could add some nuance to his pass rush but he has the traits to be a high end pass rusher. Nic Scourton - Great understanding of how you rush the passer, his approach is nuanced, varied and productive and I love his hand use which is fast, heavy and deliberate. Played a bit bigger this year at Texas A&M I'd want him back down to his Purdue weight where he was more explosive but he is going to be pro-ready to go against NFL tackles right off the bat. Shermar Stewart - Athletic freak, technical mess, the bust potential is high but the ceiling here is an elite perennial all-pro type pass rusher. If he can just be coached up to better understand his leverage, get rid of his tendency to lean into offensive linemen and to use his arms and hands better the overall physical package is worth a shot. Corners (working on the basis that Travis Hunter and Will Johnson are already off the board and so is Shanon Revel unless his medicals are so bad he is fully off the board) Jahdae Barron - Versatile chess piece or starting corner? I think for a team that is going to be mainly a zone defense he is a starting outside corner. Measurements will be interesting for him. If his arms come in short then he is out of consideration here but he got better every year at Texas and while his tackling technique in run support needs work I think he can be a really effective boundary player. Wide Receivers (working on the basis that Travis Hunter, Tetairoa McMillan, Emeka Egbuka and Luther Burden are off the board) Matthew Golden - Big play receiver who needs to be more consistent. Can play outside or from the slot, but needs to sharpen up his route running, has a tendency to round routes off rather than getting in and out of breaks and his hands need to be more consistent. He can be a game breaker though and if he runs in the 4.3s at the Combine probably cements himself as a late first round pick. In terms of how those guys rank on my big board currently: 1. Jahdae Barron 2. Walter Nolen 3. Princely Umanmielen 4. Nick Scourton 5. Derrick Harmon 6. Kenneth Grant 7. Matthew Golden 8. Shermar Stewart Barron and Nolen are sufficiently separated from the pack as true 1sts by my grades that if either is there I'd just take them (not sure the Bills will, especially Nolen) after that, genuinely the other 6 are sufficiently clustered that I consider them in the same tier of prospect and it becomes a bit you pays your money you takes your choice. I'd probably lean away from Harmon and Grant if it was me because DTackle is the position that I am most confident of getting a good player at the end of the 2nd. So would come down to a pass rusher or Golden. EDIT: should add if the rumours @gonzo1105 shared about Pearce sliding to the bottom of, and maybe out of, round one due to character concerns are true then unless those character concerns are of the very most serious in nature the Bills should be confident in their culture to keep him in check and sprint to the podium.

Yes. Though overpay in the sense of money committed to a slot receiver. He might even get more on the market from a team with a QB on a rookie deal looking to take advantage of a window. I think Shakir is on the Christian Kirk tier. And he got an overpay from Jacksonville.

I am less interested in whether he meant it or even whether Martin really thought it was bullying. I am more interested in removing the toxicity from "locker room stuff". It serves no purpose and there is no reason for it.

I think he will get somewhere in the high teens AAV $17-19m.

Take 2024 out it might be even better.

I have no idea what he was trying to do but that was the Incognito defence at the time. He was trying to show tough love.

Correct but it is value above replacement and it is lower in the slot for reasons I have explained previously. A team would be insane to give multiple 1sts for him.

550 of those yards came from the slot matched up not on nickel corners.... but on linebackers. I posted the numbers last week. Doesn't mean McConkey isn't a stud. He is. But that's why slot receivers are not good uses of first round picks. Because I can find receivers who win matched up on linebackers in space on day 2 and even day 3 of the draft. And I liked McConkey more than I liked Coleman. Because I think Coleman is really a big slot and I just think McConkey is a better player. But I don't think he'd have been a fix to the Bills issue either. And all were clearly better than Keon Coleman on tape IMO. While everyone was giving it the "over valuing the combine" line on Coleman it should have been applied to Lassiter who but for a poor combine was probably a first rounder and played like he should have been.

It isn't a morality or non-morality point. I am not holding Sapp up as an angel. I am well aware he isn't. But he has disputed the idea that there are no rules between teammates in a locker room and all is fair in the name of "motivation" etc. It is prefectly capable of getting after a guy whether banter or an attempt to light a fire without going after his family.

I think Marcel Dareus has retired.....

Yea I just honestly don't get it. And to the "you don't understand american football locker rooms, this ain't soccer" I always remember Warren Sapp when he used to be on NFL Gameday morning whenever any of these situations arose used to say "only three things were off limits in my locker room don't go after someone's faith, don't go after someone's family and don't go after someone's money."

It's 2025, it shouldn't be the norm. It is toxic. And we shouldn't just accept it will always exist because there is no reason why it should. EDIT: and for clarity, believe me I understand the hyper competitive professional athlete lockeroom vibe is not getting round a camp fire singing Kumbaya. There will be arguments, there will be disputes, there will be guys who don't like each other or whatever. But threatening to hit someone's mother? It's totally unnecessary. Go after Martin's weight, go after his heart, go after his lack of effort... whatever. But the idea that he is motivated to address these things by a teammate threatening to strike his mom? It's toxic nonsense and it doesn't need to exist.

I'm not higher on Collins. But I am lower on Williams. I don't have a big gap between them grade wise.

Agree with all this. My worry with both Coleman and Bishop is the things they have struggled with as rookies in the NFL are the things they struggled with in college. Coleman was a non-separator and Bishop was someone who had a tendency to get lost in coverage, especially in zone coverage. So while, of course, both can improve and get better (and they can help Bishop out a ton by playing him much more in the box) this is not a pace of the NFL thing. This isn't one year of issues that as the game slows down for them you expect them to turn around. This is who they were coming into the league. And don't take my word for it. Here is what NFL.com said about them: Keon Coleman - first four bullets under weaknesses: Press coverage can blanket his release and catch a ride. Below-average acceleration getting out of breaks and cuts. Could struggle finding separation to avoid excessive contested catches. Needs to play through downfield corners to secure catch space. Cole Bishop - first two bullets under weaknesses: Desire to make plays causes him to vacate coverage zones. Below-average eye balance between route and quarterback.

I'm not here to tell anyone that my grades are the be all and end all, of course not, but by my board Ed Oliver was BPA in 2019 and Groot was among a cluster of guys within a tiny margin of each other in 2021. None since then have been close to BPA on my board. My sense is that as the team has got close their urgency to find "that one piece" has increased and the quality of their early draft decisions has suffered a little.

Yea I think that is probably right. Unless they are seeing Aaron Rodgers or Russell Wilson as a legit option. Rodgers is particularly interesting because he can't sign until June anyway if a post June 1 cut, so it allows them to at least posture through the draft to see if the Giants (presume they'd be most likely) or the Raiders bite.

I think he was a good player in Houston. There is nothing there now though. And he isn't healthy. So they are already paying that money in 2025 and have no QB committing more money to someone who is at best bridge level makes no sense. I'd take whichever of Ward or Sanders is left, and if Tennessee pass (and there is increasing noise that they might) you get your pick of the two.

Why cut Edwards? He had a really good year. If I'm taking and anyone off the field and trading them it's Torrence.

And they have a QB costing $72.9m on the cap next year (and the same in 2026). Could they restructure again and kick some more of it down the road? Sure. But it's all guaranteed. My view is don't kick the can any further. You have a top 2 pick in this draft where there happen to be two Quarterbacks who have a chance to be NFL starters (not sure either has elite QB potential but for the Browns not sure that matters) so select one of them and you have a cheap option to start at QB on a controlled contract for the next 3 years while you are seeing off the Watson deal ($72.9m in 25, $72.9m in 26, $26.9m in 27). If you have decided after 3 years that guy is not a long term answer, fine, kick them to the curb and start afresh. I just don't see any other way of getting even serviceable Quarterback play in 2025. You won't have any money to sign a decent vet. Are you really paying Watson $72.9m and say Gardner Minshew $10m at the same time? That would be $83m on backup level Quarterback play. Surely better to pay a rookie $7m (about what Daniels as the 2nd overall pick cost on this year's cap) with a chance of at least serviceable starter play? If Watson was healthy I think I'd be more in favour of take the best player available, ride it out, you made your bed you gotta lie in it. But he is contracted for two more years and is gonna miss the entirety of one of them. The only logical alternative to taking a QB now that I see is an intentional two year tank.... and you just did that a decade ago.

Do you? Where? Keon started when healthy, Carter was on the field before his injury (the feeling seems to be they brought him back up off IR before he was ready and I wonder if that contributed to the Ciano firing) so the only guy who struggled to get on the field was Bishop and when he did get on the field we saw exactly why he struggled to get on the field. He didn't know his assignments and was a liability in coverage.