GunnerBill

This was excellent, thanks. Some of it was stuff I have had explained to me before and I sort of understood but actually the way he describes pattern matching is the best and simplest explanation I have ever heard in terms of the box and the triangle. Pattern matching was a Belichick - Saban development during their time together with the Browns. They basically found they couldn't beat the Steelers playing zone because of the amount of vertical routes the Steelers were running and the speed they had meant the traditional cover 3 - read and react left their defenders too little time to get to the spot. They then tried playing man but they were just out-talented by the Steelers receivers on their DBs. So Saban wanted to mix the zone and man concepts and came up with pattern matching. One of the most interesting things in the video (and one of the newer things for me) was how the cover 6 takes away crossers. I think we have seen that frustrate the Bills offense some, particularly under Dorsey. They either end up with the crosser bracketed - and Josh has thrown a couple of picks trying to pit balls in between the bracket to his receiver - or with them held up enough clearing the coverage that the QB has to come off that and look elsewhere because his internal clock is sounding. On defense Bills have been doing the split field coverages pretty much since McDermott has been here. They are the best in the league over his tenure at preventing explosive pass plays. They force teams to throw underneath a lot. While they don't always achieve it the exact ways set out in the video (that I have seen they are not a big pattern matching team - although they do some) the objective is the same. Don't give anything big up, make teams dink and dunk. It is a definite trend in the NFL the last two years that defenses have fought back. It also explains why everyone is running these quick hitters to the flats so much. One of the things I have liked with Brady so far that is different to Dorsey is how he has used pre-snap motion to re-gain the leverage advantage in the middle of the field on inbreakers and slants - particularly with Shakir - where he almost gets a running start. It isn't novel.... the 9ers and Dolphins do it a ton, but it has generally been the preserve of those Shanahan style WCOs rather than E-P based schemes and the way Joe has managed to mesh that concept in mid-season has been impressive. It is one of the things that gives me real hope for him as permanent OC.

No they didn't. Witherspoon, Gonzalez, Forbes and Banks all went in the 1st. Joey Porter Jnr should have and went pick 33.

No, no. Just come out of a meeting on deaths in custody settings. Believe me you need the light relief this place brings.

So I think there is something to the point that the Bills haven't gone "outside" for a coordinator hire since Heath Farwell in 2019. And while I am not saying external or internal is necessarily better or worse than the alternative 5 years is a long time to go without new perspectives. That said, Joe Brady has only been on staff here two years and in the time McDermott has been Bills Head Coach Brady has worked for the Saints, LSU and the Carolina Panthers. I also think that Babich and Brady are both deserving hires. Joe did a good job in difficult circumstances and Babich has been the most outstanding position coach on staff in the McDermott era at two spots. They are both young guys making their way and both I have no doubt have ambitions to be a Head Coach. So they are going to work their asses off to make that happen. A few years ago when we have McDermott, Daboll, Frazier we had arguably the most experienced core in the NFL in the top 3 jobs. We are younger there now, and the test for McDermott is to empower his young coordinators in their roles. But can we please hurry and fire Smiley? No he hasn't. That was his dad. Bob Babich.

Josh's 2016 tape, when you are right the whispers were out about this big kid at Wyoming being the 1st overall pick, was better than his 2017 tape. That is one of the biggest things I've adjusted in my QB evaluation process. I used to mark guys down on the basis of a regression. But Josh Allen was proof that isn't always terminal if you can legitimately look at external factors. It led to me ending up defending Jordan Love some on that basis too. Yes, his final year was worse, but that might not really be on him. Definitely one rule I've completely scratched since Josh.

He'd definitely be in the "big body target" category

Ha. I don't blame him for telling them to shove it either. But again I don't love the "I'm too busy playing golf" look. I'd rather he just told them where to stick it.

Oh I was completely wrong on Josh Allen. Never disputed that. I even said in that thread I want to be the guy known as being wrong on Josh Allen. So mission accomplished. All I ever do is give my honest view. You get some right, you get some wrong. That's life. Never be afraid of making a mistake.

The guy LaPorta reminds me most of is like prime Greg Olsen. Some people might think that is an insult but Olsen in the prime of his career with the Panthers was elite. He had three thousand yard seasons in a row. Don't get me wrong he will blow early career Greg Olsen's numbers out of the water, he was considered a bit of a bust with the Bears but in playing style that is who I see.

I have been back and watched some of his Wyoming games again since. I missed on how good his legs were. I definitely missed that in my original scouting of him. The rest? I still don't like the college film. I still see throws that are erratic at best and sail miles over receivers heads. But I will credit the recently returned for a guest appearance @thebandit27 because he and I had quite a detailed conversation pre-draft and he said the inaccuracy is not what I term "natural inaccuracy" it is a technical issue - he has an over striding problem and it throws his mechanics off and if he can get that fixed accuracy will not be a problem. After that first NFL season I remember hearing Jordan Palmer on a podcast say of his work with Josh "we are focussing on his lower half mechanics we think the inconsistent accuracy is caused by a slight over striding that throws the sync between his feet and his upper body off." So Bandit nailed it. There were a few who liked Josh Allen quite a bit but Bandit was the only one I remember here (and frankly I don't remember any of the main talking heads saying it at the time either although I've heard a couple refer to it since) who correctly diagnosed the one critical element that was going to make or break it for Josh.

Agree he doesn't move like Deebo. He is much more of a long strider (I think that is why he looks taller than he is - he has long limbs).

Nah, he wasn't. That was a non-story. He is still appearing.

Fair. Responsibility probably split on that one. I just thought the defense and Sean's playcalling was a mess at the end. But you are right, the offense threw up over itself multiple times.

Someone should tell Rodgers to get off the Pat McAfee show. That weekly sideshow is not helping anyone.

I think that is fair but then nor did Kaiir Elam. It was the best combination of position of need and value on the board. I can take the argument that Bullard from Georgia might be more naturally their type (i.e. probably more akin to Hyde) it was a bit of a toin coss of the two. But they do tend to like "big" which was my thinking on Bullock.

I think Pats, Broncos, Jags (although extenuating circumstances) and then the playoff loss are the games this year where I'd say the D bore the brunt of the culpability for the loss. Jets was offense and special teams Bengals was offense Eagles was special teams - most notably Tyler Bass

Except they have a gaping hole at corner.

He had already taken the big, strong, toolsy guy twice by that point and failed - the Brocketship and Paxton Lynch. I definitely think that was a factor in him not trusting himself.

And a quote from Todd Downing. All the big hitters. I think I'd rather eat soap than read that.

In the least shocking development of the year....

I don't really care for the Pro-Bowl tbh and the rosters are a glorified popularity contest based on name recognition. But at the same time I don't love the look that a football player puts a ceremonial golf event ahead of a ceremonial football event.

This is my expectation too. That he essentially is responsible for game planning and installation but McDermott will remain the primary play caller. They might want to give Babich some packages that he calls - maybe he is responsible for the blitz package for instance, so when McDermott wants a blitz Babich calls it, to try and get his feet wet. I expect if the regime stays for multiple years Babich will end up as the primary playcaller. But in 2024 I'd be surprised if it is not still McDermott.

We should have beat the Chiefs. And there are reasons we didn't. But it wasn't coaching that failed us right at the end with the game on the line. It was pure execution.

It depends what underperforms means doesn't it? And that is kind of where I think the McDermott conversation is stuck. Is not reaching a Superbowl underperforming? Is not reaching a second AFCCG underperforming? In a vacuum, sure, you can argue with Josh Allen it is. But then in context is losing playoff games that come down to one or two plays to Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid underperforming? I'm always going to struggle to get myself there. The clear examples of underperformance would be: 1) missing the playoffs - and I was clear that if he missed the playoffs this year I'd have fired him. When it looked like that was the likely outcome I was fine if the Bills wanted to move on. 2) losing a playoff game to a non-elite / top end Quarterback. If they were to lose in the playoffs to a team where they had a clear Quarterback advantage with Josh then I think you say "okay, that is failure." There is then the cumulative effect. And that is where a lot of fans are, with a gut feeling that we will just always be close with no cigar under McDermott and eventually you have to give someone else a go. I understand that line of thinking. I just struggle to get myself there, but maybe with another year of losing in the playoffs I'd feel different. I like Ben Johnson, I do. I don't think he is the offensive whizz kid some make out but that makes me like him more. I think he is a coach that knows who he has on offense, knows what they can do and knows what they can't and he really leans into it. There isn't anything revolutionary about the Lions offense it just knows what it is and they execute it effectively and put their players in the best position to make plays. That is the kind of awareness that makes me think he has a future as a Head Coach in this league much more so than being a whizz kid who is gonna try and impose his scheme on everyone he comes across. He worked under Philbin (who was a WCO - spread variant guy) and Gase (who was a modified E-P guy) in Miami so he definitely has some experience in both of the two pre-eminent offensive systems in the NFL right now. I'd be interested in having him as the Bills Head Coach (and de-facto OC), but I am not sure I'm at "my word we MUST have this guy, fire everyone to get him."

Meh. It sounds like religious propoganda with a bit of sex up front to make it a jazzier read.