GunnerBill

I like Ladd but he is built for a Shanahan style WCO off the stretch zone. I expect him to be higher on those boards than teams running more spread or E-P.

He will go between 25 and 40.

Yea I'd hate Sweat in round 1 because of positional value. He won't make it to #60 but if he did I'd sprint to the podium.

JPJ is going to be a plug and play 10 year starter at center in the NFL. If he were to get to us at #60 I'd do it. My views on Legette are well known. I was imploring people not to overreact yesterday, I say the same today. His tape is a day 1 player to me. I am resolute on that.

The Bills haven't opened with New England since EJ's debut in 2013. I predict we open home to New England at 1pm. Week 2 on the road in prime time. Possibly the Rams but I can see the Dolphins on the road as an MNF.

He will anyway. Only Diggs, Shakir and Shorter are under contract.

Todd Wash is the best DLine coach on the market that I can see but Marcus West is a credible internal candidate for promotion too. For QB coach Frank Reich has been mentioned. I think his route back to a top job is a long one but feels a considerable demotion. Sean Ryan has been mentioned and makes sense too. Shane Bowen is one I'd interview at Linebackers coach. Been the DC in Tennessee the past couple of years, but is a linebacker coach by trade. If you have guys consistently misplaying their technique that is a position coach issue. So it can have an inlfuence.

Frazier called the plays. I don't think Babich will. Brady will be what he was the 2nd half of this season. But he will have the spring and summer to install his version of this offense.

I don't need to hope. I actually never believed this year was a likely Superbowl year. Did they have a puncher's chance? Yes. They always do with Josh Allen. But I am way more optimistic at this stage than I was a year ago. I think we have started to see the development of Josh Allen era v2.0 with some young guys stepping up. I have higher expectations for the 2024 team than I did for the 2023 team. I was kinda at hope a year ago. I am not at hope now.

Well if they'd found the first down throw on the 2nd and 9 play instead..... then KC is using time outs (they only had 2) you score... I mean I think 2-4 if I stretch it one is realistic. But equally, had the Shakir play been a touchdown and then the defense had folded in on itself again and let KC score a touchdown that is a different conversation to what happened. Who knows what we might then be considering.

It was Next Gen Stats. I have never said the game just came down to the final drive. That has never been my argument. But after 58 minuted of football the Bills were in position and if they had executed 2 or 3 plays at the end they would have won.

But that's the thing..... it didn't. The awful defense and the awful special teams still left us a 73% win percentage probability by the analytics at the 2 minute warning.

Gonzalez was fantastic the first month of the year. He tore his shoulder in about week 5 and was done for the year, but he looked an absolute stud out there. Porter has been excellent. Forbes struggled early, played a bit better late. His main issue is he needs to add bulk. But I had Witherspoon, Gonzalez and Porter all as excellent plug and play immediate impact starters. They were the clear top 3 to me. I'd have happily picked any of them. EDIT: I loved Branch as well. I only had 11 first round grades last year, and two of them lasted to day 2 - Joey Porter and Brian Branch. Think it is safe to say in re-draft both would be slam dunk first rounders.

This was excellent, thanks. Some of it was stuff I have had explained to me before and I sort of understood but actually the way he describes pattern matching is the best and simplest explanation I have ever heard in terms of the box and the triangle. Pattern matching was a Belichick - Saban development during their time together with the Browns. They basically found they couldn't beat the Steelers playing zone because of the amount of vertical routes the Steelers were running and the speed they had meant the traditional cover 3 - read and react left their defenders too little time to get to the spot. They then tried playing man but they were just out-talented by the Steelers receivers on their DBs. So Saban wanted to mix the zone and man concepts and came up with pattern matching. One of the most interesting things in the video (and one of the newer things for me) was how the cover 6 takes away crossers. I think we have seen that frustrate the Bills offense some, particularly under Dorsey. They either end up with the crosser bracketed - and Josh has thrown a couple of picks trying to pit balls in between the bracket to his receiver - or with them held up enough clearing the coverage that the QB has to come off that and look elsewhere because his internal clock is sounding. On defense Bills have been doing the split field coverages pretty much since McDermott has been here. They are the best in the league over his tenure at preventing explosive pass plays. They force teams to throw underneath a lot. While they don't always achieve it the exact ways set out in the video (that I have seen they are not a big pattern matching team - although they do some) the objective is the same. Don't give anything big up, make teams dink and dunk. It is a definite trend in the NFL the last two years that defenses have fought back. It also explains why everyone is running these quick hitters to the flats so much. One of the things I have liked with Brady so far that is different to Dorsey is how he has used pre-snap motion to re-gain the leverage advantage in the middle of the field on inbreakers and slants - particularly with Shakir - where he almost gets a running start. It isn't novel.... the 9ers and Dolphins do it a ton, but it has generally been the preserve of those Shanahan style WCOs rather than E-P based schemes and the way Joe has managed to mesh that concept in mid-season has been impressive. It is one of the things that gives me real hope for him as permanent OC.

No they didn't. Witherspoon, Gonzalez, Forbes and Banks all went in the 1st. Joey Porter Jnr should have and went pick 33.

No, no. Just come out of a meeting on deaths in custody settings. Believe me you need the light relief this place brings.

So I think there is something to the point that the Bills haven't gone "outside" for a coordinator hire since Heath Farwell in 2019. And while I am not saying external or internal is necessarily better or worse than the alternative 5 years is a long time to go without new perspectives. That said, Joe Brady has only been on staff here two years and in the time McDermott has been Bills Head Coach Brady has worked for the Saints, LSU and the Carolina Panthers. I also think that Babich and Brady are both deserving hires. Joe did a good job in difficult circumstances and Babich has been the most outstanding position coach on staff in the McDermott era at two spots. They are both young guys making their way and both I have no doubt have ambitions to be a Head Coach. So they are going to work their asses off to make that happen. A few years ago when we have McDermott, Daboll, Frazier we had arguably the most experienced core in the NFL in the top 3 jobs. We are younger there now, and the test for McDermott is to empower his young coordinators in their roles. But can we please hurry and fire Smiley? No he hasn't. That was his dad. Bob Babich.

Josh's 2016 tape, when you are right the whispers were out about this big kid at Wyoming being the 1st overall pick, was better than his 2017 tape. That is one of the biggest things I've adjusted in my QB evaluation process. I used to mark guys down on the basis of a regression. But Josh Allen was proof that isn't always terminal if you can legitimately look at external factors. It led to me ending up defending Jordan Love some on that basis too. Yes, his final year was worse, but that might not really be on him. Definitely one rule I've completely scratched since Josh.

He'd definitely be in the "big body target" category

Ha. I don't blame him for telling them to shove it either. But again I don't love the "I'm too busy playing golf" look. I'd rather he just told them where to stick it.

Oh I was completely wrong on Josh Allen. Never disputed that. I even said in that thread I want to be the guy known as being wrong on Josh Allen. So mission accomplished. All I ever do is give my honest view. You get some right, you get some wrong. That's life. Never be afraid of making a mistake.

The guy LaPorta reminds me most of is like prime Greg Olsen. Some people might think that is an insult but Olsen in the prime of his career with the Panthers was elite. He had three thousand yard seasons in a row. Don't get me wrong he will blow early career Greg Olsen's numbers out of the water, he was considered a bit of a bust with the Bears but in playing style that is who I see.

I have been back and watched some of his Wyoming games again since. I missed on how good his legs were. I definitely missed that in my original scouting of him. The rest? I still don't like the college film. I still see throws that are erratic at best and sail miles over receivers heads. But I will credit the recently returned for a guest appearance @thebandit27 because he and I had quite a detailed conversation pre-draft and he said the inaccuracy is not what I term "natural inaccuracy" it is a technical issue - he has an over striding problem and it throws his mechanics off and if he can get that fixed accuracy will not be a problem. After that first NFL season I remember hearing Jordan Palmer on a podcast say of his work with Josh "we are focussing on his lower half mechanics we think the inconsistent accuracy is caused by a slight over striding that throws the sync between his feet and his upper body off." So Bandit nailed it. There were a few who liked Josh Allen quite a bit but Bandit was the only one I remember here (and frankly I don't remember any of the main talking heads saying it at the time either although I've heard a couple refer to it since) who correctly diagnosed the one critical element that was going to make or break it for Josh.

Agree he doesn't move like Deebo. He is much more of a long strider (I think that is why he looks taller than he is - he has long limbs).

Nah, he wasn't. That was a non-story. He is still appearing.