GunnerBill

Why would we you think we are assured to see an improvement from a guy at an age where almost everyone at that position has hit the decline? The history of pass rushers beyond 35 is not good, and in the last 15 years it is even worse than "not good". It is almost non-existant. And that isn't factoring in coming off the ACL and the obvious limitations on his movement last year. Again, I'll be here to eat crow if I'm wrong. But Von Miller is finished.

Yea I disagree strongly. Babich 100% was getting hired. Brady wasn't a slam dunk looking at the teams that have hired OCs and trying to join dots on connections but I still think more likely he would than not.

Hmmm. That contradicts what I have heard elsewhere. My understanding is when Bill flew in for that weekend interview the Falcons were prepared to offer him the job if things progressed well. They didn't. In fact they fell apart quickly. Disagreements went wider than just personnel control. They also went to more general organisational structure and coaching staff. Bill Belichick doesn't just want to coach a team. He wants to run an organisation. And he wasn't going to work for an owner unwilling to give that control.

Also some really interesting reflections on Johnson in the Athletic as part of the Commanders search: 1. He doesn't interview well (there were whispers of this last year as well aloof and doesn't make an effort to connect with owners); 2. Has the reputation of being a coach who prefers his office to engaging with people, better at the Xs and Os than the personal relationships with players; 3. As widely reported his agents demands are top of the market. Sounds like Washington was willing to overlook all that but there were whispers even within their search and Mike MacDonald was a live candidate there too. It's possibly the case that this stuff is just bound to come out after a messy end to the process from Johnson and his people, that stuff always gets frowned on by NFL folks and there will be a bit of a sense of league insiders wanting to make sure he feels it. But that is two years in a row the interview whispers have been out there and it does mean his approach is even higher risk than I imagined. If the Lions offense were to be even say middle of the pack next year does he still have the cache to overcome any perceived struggles in connecting with people?

Yep, correct. But that was before we signed Floyd last year. There will be vet guys out there in June in that dust settles stage. I'm just at the point where I don't think there is anything at all left with Von. Let's say the Bills had signed Ngakoue (never been my favourite player) as their dust settled guy instead of Floyd. He was pretty poor for the Bears. Yet I'd still take his contribution over Von. They don't have to hit a Floyd like home run to get more than they will get out of Von next year IMO. They jusy have to have a warm body who still has a bit of pep in the step. I will hold my hands up if I am wrong but Von Miller being finished is one of my stronger feelings on any of the decisions the Bills face this season. I put the chances of getting something meaningful from him in 2024 at less than 5%.

But he is not 33. He is about to turn 35. He showed nothing at all last year to me. Even if he has never had the ACL this year was always likely to be one where he was no longer a true starter level and you were having to just rotate him in. How many pass rushers start in the NFL age 35? How many are productive at that point. And his post ACL play wasn't like Tre's the year before where he just looked tentative. Miller looked like he could barely move out there at times. I think the Bills probably will keep him. Beane seems almost in awe of him. But they really shouldn't. I am willing to go on record now that Von will have next to no impact in 2024. What I saw was a player for whom it is over.

I just think there is way more chance, and I mean like to the times of ten, that you get the old Tre White than you get the old Von Miller. I really don't think it's close. Try and renegotiate with Tre. Cut Von.

I think he HAS to be a move receiver. He isn't Shakir who really can't play outside. But he isn't Diggs who is going to be a primary outside guy who just does the slot a bit. McConkey is a guy you have to do a heavy dose of slot with and really mix up slot and outside. He can make plays in the NFL. He isn't the uy who transforms this offense though.

I wouldn't say it is "almost certain" but the reason it is a real runner is because it makes too much sense for both sides. Tre has no guarantees left on his deal. The dead money the Bills are on the hook for if they cut him is bonus money that in real terms was paid long ago. Basically he costs $33m over the next two years in cap charge. $10m of that the Bills are already on the hook for 'cos it is already paid. So essentially the next two years is $23m in new money but Tre wouldn't see a penny of it if he was cut. Of course he could say "well cut me, I back myself to get $11.5m AAV for two years on the open market after playing to games in two and a half years and when I probably can't go until training camp." But that would be foolish on his part IMO. Much more likely the Bills say let's cut that $23m to $14m. We will guarantee you half of it. And structure it something like: Year Guaranteed Salary Unguaranteed Salary New bonus (guaranteed) Already paid bonus Cap Charge 2024 $2m $1m $1.25m $6m $10.25m 2025 - $6.5m $1.25m $4m $11.75m 2026 VOID VOID $1.25m - - 2027 VOID VOID $1.25m - - That basically gives you the same saving in 2024 as an outright cut would, Tre pockets $7m right away and gets to stay and rehab in an organisation that knows him, knows his body, knows his personality and ultimately coaches that know his game. And it still means you can get put after 2024 for a dead hit of just over $6m. Maybe Tre refuses to negotiate and says keep me on my deal or but me but I gotta think this kind of option is attractive to him as well as the Bills. Instead of $10.4m yearly cash that he won't get it is $7m yearly cash that he will plus access to the Bills trainers, medical facility, rehab support and a chance to play and show his worth on a defense he knows.

McConkey at #28 would depress me. Seriously. And I think he will end up a good player. But that is not a first round football player. I still disagree on Legette. I agree his release package needs work, that's a fair criticism. And he is not a good blocker (which would definitely be a factor for the Bills I think). But I like him out of breaks and I think he wins vertically plenty. Too many plays on his tape where he ends up having to wait and come back to the ball that Spencer leaves short IMO.

But the reason Edwards didn't get a better deal last year still stands. I agree he is a decent starting level guard.... but there is a reason he was there for the Bills when he was in free agency last year. What makes you think after zero starts and a limited role he is more likely to have interest this time around? Similar with Rapp. There was a reason he was available. And maybe someone likes what they saw from him in a dime role and wants to pay him as a starter. Not sure I see it personally. I don't want him starting here. Maybe another team feels different.

Why do you presume a year of Edwards and Rapp not starting will convince people to pay them to start? Especially on Edwards. His ability to remain healthy was the question mark. Has playing a few snaps as a 6th OL convinced people his body can hold up to the rigours of a full NFL season? I think you are right on Dodson. Is supect he will be gone. Someone will look at the 10 or so games of film this year and some snippets from last year and decide he is worth a punt.

I think you can do it for that $6.7m in space - you might need to put a bit of void money into next year. But that would be enough 2024 cap space.

More acceleration probably but I wouldn't say no to some elite lateral quickness too. Nacua is a great RAC receiver. No doubt. That isn't what I mean by explosiveness. I mean someone who can win quickly in routes with explosive acceleration. Yes I agree. You do. You never pass on a superior talent because of need.

Not true. Designated as a post June 1 cut Von saves $6.7m on this year's cap. The cap hit in 2025 is $15m whether you cut him as a post 1 June or after the 2024 season. So that money has been factored in any way. The only thing they lose is the ability to spread that $15m over two years - 2025 and 2026 by cutting him a year earlier than they originally planned. Of course it means you have $17m of dead cap this year that they were not planning for. But it does not make the cap worse. That money is there whether Von plays or not. The only question that it raises is: Do you want Von Miller at $23.7m or Player X at $6.7m on the roster in 2024? And for me I think Von's toast. Give me player X.

I wouldn't describe Nacua as explosive. He is good, and he is tough to bring down after the catch, he had over 600 yards of YAC but I wouldn't call him explosive. The Bills need guys who can separate quickly. I'm not saying the 40 time is the be all and end all by the way, it's definitely not. But the need in this offense is explosiveness.

Yea, it is. But the two jobs it looks like was offered was Carolina in 2023 and Washington in 2024. They are both bad jobs IMO. He probably has to make the jump next year though, or else teams will just stop calling.

Tre - I'd be willing to part ways but I'd try and renegotiate first, give him some guaranteed money (he has none) in exchange for an actual pay cut; Poyer - I'd keep another year, small restructure to turn $3m of his $4.7m base salary into restructure bonus adding a void year in 25 saving us $1.5m in cap space and getting his hit down to c. $6m (I just think losing both of your two mainstay safeties in one year is best avoided and Poyer still had a good season and was an above average starting safety even his best days are behind him) Morse - I'd be willing to part ways if needs be - again you could add a void year and spread the hit out if you wanted to but I think I'd hold onto him until I see whether I get a guy in the draft (either at guard or center, because McGovern can play center as well) Knox - No. We didn't see the best of Dawson this year with the injuries. I still think for now we need an all rounder with his skillset while we focus on Dalton as a receiving weapon. The guy I am more willing than most to move on from and take my medicine this offseason is Von Miller. He saves me c.$7m against the cap as a post 1 June cut. Okay it is $17m additional dead cap on what they were originally planning for (the $15m dead money next year is already baked in) and that isn't ideal but I don't think he is any more than a backup at this point. So can I get a younger rotational player using that c.$7m? I think I can. And I'm not in a rush to bring any of our big ticket free agents back to be honest. I'd be interested in DaQuan if he is willing to take a 1 year deal and AJE if he ends up not finding his value on the market and circles back on a reasonable deal. But Gabe Davis, Micah Hyde, Leonard Floyd, Jordan Phillips, Tim Settle, Poona Ford... they can all go. Dane Jackson, Tyrel Dodson, Taylor Rapp and David Edwards at deals worth $1.7-2.5m I'd try to keep. If they get more than that on the market, good luck to them.

Washington were 24th in yards, and 25th in points offensively in 2023. I think that is probably a very slight overperformance of their talent but not significant. They had some success early in the year with Sam Howell, but he cooled off as the season went on. I quite like him as a gamer. Think he definitely has a future in the league but probably not as a starter. He reminds me a lot of Baker Mayfield though and with better talent he could have some success. Bienemy went there to prove he wasn't just riding Reid and Mahomes's coat tails. I think he proved he can coach, he is a credible OC. But he didn't prove himself more than that. I wouldn't be shocked if he ends up sitting this year out, or takes essentially an advisory role somewhere, but he will be back as an OC in 2025. I think his shot at Head Coach jobs are passed though. You are a hot candidate for a relatively short window and once your window is gone it can be gone for good. I always cite Ray Horton for this. He was a really hot HC candidate for two cycles - think it was 2012 and 2013 - he is now coaching in the USFL. Teryl Austin was another - he had three years in the mid-2010s of multiple interviews. He is still in the league as the Steelers DC they finished 6th best this year in points against, but there were zero interviews coming out of it. His moment has passed. Kellen Moore might be going the same way. Had a couple of hot years when he first became OC in Dallas where he had multiple HC interviews. Other than a courtesy interview as a man on staff in LA he didn't have a sniff this year.

I don't think he is going to run a 4.45. He is more a low 4.5s guy I think. I think Mitchell is a good player. He will have 1,000 yard receiving seasons in the NFL. But I suspect if we draft him we will be back in a position in a year's time where we are talking about needing more explosiveness from that position and a guy who can win early in routes. Maybe they are able to come back and find that in a more limited player in the middle rounds and the combination of the two gets them through. But they only have three roles on the field in most packages. Diggs (presumably still here) will be one, Shakir will be another, how often are you getting both rookies on the field?

I think explosiveness is absolutely the #1 trait the Bills need. Way, way, way more important than size. Sure, hands is #2. But they need a guy who is explosive.

I have said it multiple times but they are in a MUCH healthier roster place this offseason than last. Yes they will lose their safety axis finally. And they need to re-stock the Dline, but the have some rookie contract contributors. This time a year ago the 2022 draft looked like it might be a dud. Instead we have four starters from it and then the first two picks of 2023 look like hits. The Bills needed that. And they need to stack another class like that now.... while finding that elusive receiver at the same time ideally.

Yea. I disagree with them. I'm fine to be out on my own on it. I've watched 6 full games of his, I have a late 1st round grade on him on the basis of that tape. He may well go day 2, that's the draft. It's a game of opinions. If he is there at #28 I'd be very satisfied if he were the pick. I think his chance of being the pick are worse post senior bowl, but it wouldn't put me off personally.

Yea I knew he was highly recruited.

Yea. I think they need 1 DL on day 2 ideally, but then they absolutely need to find guys who can contribute in the rotation on day 3. Whether that is at tackle or end.