GunnerBill

I thought he was overrated as a draft prospect and I still do. Like you say he has a skillset but he is miles away from being a complete back. Said then Walker > Hall.

Fair he played a lot at Denver. But I wouldn't say their 10 points scored there particularly strengthens the argument. They are 3-7 in games Lamar hasn't started over 3 seasons. Lamar IS very valuable to Baltimore. I say that as someone who didn't think he was the right MVP.

Aaron Rodgers isn't much of a talent evaluator.

Certainly feels that way. No he was 2-3. Wins v Pittsburgh and Atlanta. Losses to Pittsburgh and Cleveland plus Cincy in the playoffs.

I said when he was coming out I thought he needed an offense with a lot of spread principles, pick your matchup pre snap and get the ball out fast. They have tried to fit him into the West Coast paint by numbers system and he can't execute it. At this stage though I think he might be damaged goods to the extent he ever had a chance.

Yea I was thinking that. Does Woody think Allen Lazard and the ghost of Randall Cobb equates to talent?

I think getting really fixated on the words is a red herring. It is the NFL's player of the season award. As for the Bills imploding without Josh, depends who the Quarterback in his place is. And Huntley was 2-3 last year (and is 3-7 over the last three years).

Aaron Schatz

I haven't crunched the numbers specifically but the point that it is a pretty consistent pattern is clear I think. If you aren't the QB of a 1 seed you have to have had pretty much a "beyond question" dominant type MVP season.

I think that is an exaggeration, but there are definitely some questionable names. I think in this era it is pretty clear the award almost always goes to the QB of a #1 seed unless someone else really has been dominant - Matt Ryan in his year and Manning in a year where I think he was the #2 seed being the obvious examples.

So long ago. How many of this set of voters were on voters then? Peter King possibly?

There were three minor elements on that play to Shakir if either one is right its a touchdown. If Josh is up half a stride he makes the throw. If Dion holds the block a split second longer Josh makes the throw. If Shakir clears coverage a half second earlier Josh lets it go before the pressure affects it. We just needed 1 of those three and it was a touchdown. That is the small margins.

His interview with Florio and Simms was better. Some really interesting snippets: - He says his mechanics got off this year because of some of the ailments with his shoulder but he acknowledges he has to get back to working on them (interesting that he said "with the appropriate people" - anyone know if he is still working with Jordan Palmer? I think Palmer did so much on the original mechanical clean ups with the over striding); - He talked about his internal dialogue with himself and it is the one worry I have with Josh in terms of temperament. I love that he holds himself accountable but I do worry at times he gets in his own head about stuff and internalises it; - Cites the Ty Dunne piece as the one of two factors in the turnaround (without prompting) and then when asked further agrees with Rasul Douglas's view that McDermott's response to that article was the moment things changed; - Acknowledges that if he'd just slid up slightly in the pocket on the Shakir throw he probably has a touchdown; - His favourite throw is the Jake Kumerow touchdown in Denver. Really good interview.

There is a good chunk of teams in the 2nd half of the first round with needs at interior Oline. I agree, not ordinarily a position where teams want to spend 1st round picks but there is often a center late in the first - I'm thinking Linderbaum and Ruiz from the last few years.

I think 6 is the record for receivers in round 1. It has happened multiple times but never more than six. I agree that this class likely won't break that record. The record it could break is 13 in the first two rounds which has happened twice: 2020 and 2022 when 6 went round 1 and 7 went round 2. On JPJ I think he was borderline day 1 going into the Senior Bowl but I am convinced he is a round 1 guy now.

It's still a pretty good list of credible people. Sure, there are a few numpties on it, but there always would have been even in the old days of it being all local print journos. The nutty people will have just been less high profile. The point of the way they do all pro and MVP voting is that the pool is big enough to make sure one or two eccentric people should be drowned out in the crowd. Doesn't always work mind you. Cole Beasley ended up a 2nd team all pro with one vote a few years back because there was such overwhelming consensus about the top 5 receivers that year.

I think there is very much a shot Franklin is there at #28. I don't expect him to go top 20 personally. Partly because once you get out of the top 10, where the three top guys will go, I don't see a ton of likely WR in the first teams. I think the right range for Franklin is probably in the 20s.

I thought Settle was better suited for 1T to be honest and that is mainly where the Bills have used him. Agree Jenkins is already a much better player. I just think in terms of his ability to play early he is much better suited as an end in a 3 man front. And WELL worth the money!

Yea. I don't go as far as bias, but I do definitely think there is group think. I can't remember a year recently where an MVP didn't get the overwhelming majority of votes. Even 2020 as I referenced when Rodgers, Allen and Mahomes all had great years the voting was 44, 4, 2..... I'm not arguing that Rodgers didn't deserve MVP but I'm not sure he deserved the landslide. That groupthink happens every year.

I mean having watched it I didn't feel like I was watching an MVP season from Josh Allen. I did in 2020 actually and he didn't win it Rodgers did. I understand the stats argument Aaron Schatz makes. It is an argument that has merit. I suppose I diverge from him right at the start though because I don't think MVP has to be a Quarterback award because to me it doesn't literally mean most valuable player. It is basically a player of the season award and for me taking the words literally lead you a bit down the wrong path. His assessment of Hill's value in his most recent article is why he'd likely have been my vote his route DVOA was nearly 40 percentage points clear of 2nd place. That is incredible. Overall I also think I like Schatz's All Pro votes better than the actual all pro results.

We discussed Thomas somewhere the other day. Former 5 star recruit who has underachieved his talent at Clemson. I think there is still a lot of physical potential if you can refine technique but it was rightly pointed out that he is an older prospect and there is also the question of his "want to".

I am not sure I think there was media bias, but there was definitely media groupthink - and that happens basically every year with MVP. By December there is a consensus who it should be and then everyone votes accordingly. I take the point on Lamar's stats aren't amazing - certainly as a passer 24 touchdowns doesn't feel like it should ever be an MVP - but there wasn't a single Quarterback who really dominated this year. If there had have been the media might have moved off their modus operandi but in the absence of it they stuck to what they usually do - the Quarterback of the #1 seed. I'm not saying that is right, I said before I'd have voted for Hill or CMC - because it shouldn't just be a Quarterback award and I think more than ever this year actually was the year of the playmaker so in the absence of a dominant QB I'd have stumped for one of those two. But Lamar winning it is kinda par for the course even if I agree with your point that he didn't, on the face of it, have the sort of year that justifies 49 of 50 votes.

No you are missing what he is saying. He isn't saying the record makes Lamar in a literal sense the most valuable player. He is saying the reality of the MVP award is it invariably goes to the Quarterback of one of the #1 seeds. And this season the two #1 seeds played towards the end of the year and it was clear who the better Quarterback was. I don't think @FireChans is saying that is right or wrong just that it is the reality.

100%

The bigger whiff there is post Senior Bowl there is zero point zero chance that JPJ makes it to 60. He is going round 1 IMO. I think he is a bigger first round lock than Franklin tbh.