GunnerBill

Technically, yes. In reality power had passed to Whaley.

The last two years the playoff came down to our offense having the ball last needing a touchdown and not being able to score. That isn't to say the D played well in those losses. But if you are talking about what it came down to... that's it.

Joe isn't on here. But this https://x.com/TheJoeMarino is his twitter, his DMs are open and he is responsive (if you DM him about something sensible). Shoot your shot.

Elam won't be on the team. Whatever way it happens. The chances if him being here in 2025 are less than 10% IMO.

Edwards had a really good year. I am not throwing that away because he had a poor final game. I doubt the Bills will either. He is a big Kromer guy. I don't hate the idea of cutting AJE. He is what he is and that is a 6 sack a year guy. I wasn't in favour of bringing him back either, although they got him at a reasonable price. But unless you are able to land a vet upgrade it puts you in a bit of a hole. If their answer at edge is a rookie (especially if it is a 2nd or 3rd round rookie) then AJ should stay.

You cut AJE if you can afford a vet upgrade. You keep him if you are attacking the position with a rookie.

Yea but I don't think you cut AJE if you are going with a rookie. He is useable vet depth. You only move him on to help you afford a vet upgrade IMO.

Yea and hitting on the non-premium positions (RB, LB, slot WR) when you don't have answers at the premium positions (outside WR, DE, CB) eventually gets you to where the Bills are now. Where you are looking at possibly needing to bring in expensive vets at the premium positions that will cost you keeping a couple of your drafted non-premium position guys on reasonable contracts. Take Shakir. If the Bills had traded up, taken BTJ last year and now knew they had a true outside #1 receiver under a rookie deal for 3 years plus the option, then signing your slot receiver to a decent 3 or 4 year contract is a no-brainer and you have two reliable guys for Josh to go to. But part of the calculation on whether to pay Shakir now is "wait do I need that money to fill the more important spot on the boundary with a vet contract guy?" So bad positional value decisions plus a couple of whiffs ends up risking you having to lose some of your more successful picks. It all plays into the puzzle.

And neither is trade up in the first type material.

I said at the time it was too rich for my blood. When the wall comes for the big men it tends to come fast. If you are going after a big fish in the edge pool via trade or FA you cut AJE and put that money towards it. If you are relying on drafting a rookie at that spot you keep him. That is the calculation for me.

I think he is finished. I wouldn't keep Jones at any money. I don't think he is physically able to contibute anything beyond replacement level play.

Not exactly. I don't think Keon is gonna become Worthy or McConkey just through more targets. Worthy and McConkey were used quite differently to each other. McConkey was used largely from the slot as a matchup piece vs linebackers and was used in the intermediate game. Worthy was mainly outside and generally caught either gimmicky bubble screens at the line or deeper balls with not much in between.

They actually did do quite a lot different on defense in that regular season game. They played the most zone coverage they have ever played vs the Josh Allen Bills. Was that just to trial it? To throw us off the scent? Or because they thought it was a wrinkle they could exploit? Who knows? But they did. The interesting point about them running new stuff on offense vs us but then not vs the Eagles is interesting though. There are reasons that might be the case but I genuinely think one of them is they hugely respect and are wary of Buffalo. As you would expect. No team has beaten them more often

I just think he is done. He had a good game against Denver in the playoffs. But basically otherwise he was invisible this year

But that isn't going to be as a downfield outside receiver. It will be as a big slot or a flanker who runs lots of short catch and run stuff. He will never be a good separator. So you gotta use him close to the line and manufacture touches for him.

Off the top of my head: Dion Dawkins (would start for every other playoff team except Detroit, Philly, Minnesota and Tampa) Spencer Brown (would start on every playoff team except Detroit, Philly and the Chargers) James Cook (I reckon he'd start on 7/13 other playoff teams) Ed Oliver (I reckon he'd start on 6/13 other playoff teams) Christian Benford (I reckon he'd start on all but the Eagles and possibly the Texans)

I'd cut Von and Daquan because I think they are done basically. I'd consider cutting AJE too but possibly not until after the draft. I wouldn't cut Edwards.

The last two years I would give you. I don't think they are better than Benford or Cook.

I like Walker as an edge but agree better suited to a 3-4 OLB where you can use his skillset in a more varied way. Not sure he is a hand in the dirt rusher. I think Williams will go inside the top 20. But he feels like the sort of prospect we have seen teams reach on and fail lots of times before. Looks like he should be a good pass rusher. Until he plays the game.

That should have have been a surprise though. That is who he was in college.

No I love Barron. The question is a rheotircal one because it is out there in draft land. I am pretty sure he can play on the boundary. I have him about Will Johnson in my grades. That said arm measurements matter for him. If his arms come in small and that limits him a bit more to inside I'd have to move him down a bit.

sorry, should have added Walker (although I do question the fit with the Bills which is why he didn't come to mind). I wouldn't take Williams at #30 even if he is still there. I have a low 2nd round grade on him. Agree he probably goes top half of the first but I see a very limited pass rusher there. I think it probably is a slightly longer shortlist than normal. Might narrow it down post FA.

I am definitely coming around to this idea. They ran five plays I believe against the Bills that the people who look at these things could find no evidence of them running at all in the 2024 regular season. And then zero that met that description vs the Eagles. Why would that be? I think there is two things: 1. I think familiarity. They play the Bills so often that they are worried about them cottoning on to certain tendencies etc. In the regular season game I commented on the fact that both teams did major tendency breaking on defense for example. 2. I think Andy Reid considers the Bills their biggest rival. I remember an interview with Sir Alex Ferguson, the former Manchester United manager about the rivalry with Arsene Wenger's Arsenal in the late 90s early 00s and he admitted they prepared more for Arsenal than for Real Madrid, Barcelona, Juventus, Bayern Munich etc in the big Champions League ties. The reason he said he thought they were the best team they played. Didn't matter than the trophy hauls might not have said that, Arsenal always got United's best shot because he saw them as the team he had to get past to keep the dynasty on the road.

I think in 2023 they were just off base and in actual fact the Bills probably underachieved by a win or two. In 2024 I think they were possibly too high on our divisional opponents, but I think they were pretty much right on the Bills and we probably overachieved by a win or two (especially if you consider they almost certainly win week 18 if they needed the game).

Okay, so my list of guys I'd consider at #30 who I think have a reasonable chance to be there: Defensive Tackles (working on the basis that Mason Graham is already off the board) Walter Nolen - I have a 1st on Nolan and while I slightly fear the Bills will just see him as too similar to Ed Oliver he is just better for me than the other guys likely to be in and around this pick. He may well now be gone. When I did his film and graded him in mid-January having a true first him was a bit of an outlier. It seems since the Senior Bowl the world has caught up. Would you want he and Ed out there together vs Baltimore or Detroit? Probably not. But Nolen is a very good run defender and against anyone other than the elite power run teams I think you could combine he and Ed and just blow interior offensive lines up. Kenneth Grant - You just don't find many guys at this size that move this well. Experience playing both in the A gap and the B gap, would dominate in the run game, and definitely is the most natural of the three DTs I'd consider in terms of his fit next to Ed Oliver. Actually thought he rushed the passer better in 2024 than in 2023, even if his sack production went down slightly though he probably gives you less in the pass game than the other two. Derrick Harmon - I'd love to slide back and take Harmon after picking up an extra draft pick but I'd be willing to do it at #30 as well if that made sense. Mainly a 3T in college with the most pressures of any interior Dlineman in the FBS last season, but plays with the technique and pad leverage to play as a 1T. Seen him compared to DaQuan Jones and I see that, but I think he has a bit more juice than Jones. If he can add like 5-8lbs in weight he is built to be one of the more active 1Ts in football IMO. Defensive Ends (working on the basis that Abdul Carter, James Pearce and Mike Green are already off the board) Princely Umanmielen - I'm higher on Princely than others but he is similar to Mike Green for me in that the risk you'd take is he is not at this stage an all around defensive end. He is just a pass rusher. But he has length, he has bend, he has explosive burst.... the knocks on him other than his edge setting in the run game are his hands could improve and he could add some nuance to his pass rush but he has the traits to be a high end pass rusher. Nic Scourton - Great understanding of how you rush the passer, his approach is nuanced, varied and productive and I love his hand use which is fast, heavy and deliberate. Played a bit bigger this year at Texas A&M I'd want him back down to his Purdue weight where he was more explosive but he is going to be pro-ready to go against NFL tackles right off the bat. Shermar Stewart - Athletic freak, technical mess, the bust potential is high but the ceiling here is an elite perennial all-pro type pass rusher. If he can just be coached up to better understand his leverage, get rid of his tendency to lean into offensive linemen and to use his arms and hands better the overall physical package is worth a shot. Corners (working on the basis that Travis Hunter and Will Johnson are already off the board and so is Shanon Revel unless his medicals are so bad he is fully off the board) Jahdae Barron - Versatile chess piece or starting corner? I think for a team that is going to be mainly a zone defense he is a starting outside corner. Measurements will be interesting for him. If his arms come in short then he is out of consideration here but he got better every year at Texas and while his tackling technique in run support needs work I think he can be a really effective boundary player. Wide Receivers (working on the basis that Travis Hunter, Tetairoa McMillan, Emeka Egbuka and Luther Burden are off the board) Matthew Golden - Big play receiver who needs to be more consistent. Can play outside or from the slot, but needs to sharpen up his route running, has a tendency to round routes off rather than getting in and out of breaks and his hands need to be more consistent. He can be a game breaker though and if he runs in the 4.3s at the Combine probably cements himself as a late first round pick. In terms of how those guys rank on my big board currently: 1. Jahdae Barron 2. Walter Nolen 3. Princely Umanmielen 4. Nick Scourton 5. Derrick Harmon 6. Kenneth Grant 7. Matthew Golden 8. Shermar Stewart Barron and Nolen are sufficiently separated from the pack as true 1sts by my grades that if either is there I'd just take them (not sure the Bills will, especially Nolen) after that, genuinely the other 6 are sufficiently clustered that I consider them in the same tier of prospect and it becomes a bit you pays your money you takes your choice. I'd probably lean away from Harmon and Grant if it was me because DTackle is the position that I am most confident of getting a good player at the end of the 2nd. So would come down to a pass rusher or Golden. EDIT: should add if the rumours @gonzo1105 shared about Pearce sliding to the bottom of, and maybe out of, round one due to character concerns are true then unless those character concerns are of the very most serious in nature the Bills should be confident in their culture to keep him in check and sprint to the podium.