GunnerBill

But the Chiefs are only kicking a FG if they are in 4th and long. Because again they have the advantage of knowing what they have to do at every point. I don't think if KC gets to where the 9ers ended up.. 4th and 4 inside the 10 they would kick a FG. Because they have the advantage of knowing what they have to beat. In that situation KC would go for it even in FG range. The team who goes first can do that but the risk for them if they don't make it is bigger because team 2 is then playing 4 down football until FG range and then chip shotting for the win.

The pieces around wasn't just intended as offense. It meant the entire team. In fact I think his offensive skill guys have been the weakness this year.

Sure. On a down by down basis. But the Chiefs tried making him a full time end two years ago and that experiment failed.

But Mahomes would just go for 2. And you still risk losing never having touched it again and having given him an extra down to get in. Short of stopping the best player in football with 4 downs at his disposal every time the BEST case scenario actually is you bring the game down to a 2 point conversion attempt. That is a better than 50/50 proposition for above average offenses according to the data.

They did miss Thuney tonight. And they lost a Superbowl by virtue of being down both tackles. But sure they have stayed pretty healthy overall for their post season runs. They keep winning because top to bottom they are the best. A great GM, the best QB, with a very good collection of key pieces around him and a future HoF coach.

If the 49ers kick the XP I think KC wins in regulation. They still had a timeout remember. They'd have managed the clock very differently on that final drive and I reckon they'd have scored a TD. Sure, the botched put return hurt, but both teams turned it over multiple times it was a sloppy game. I think the main reason the Chiefs were able to come back is Shanahan mismanaged the game again. Once he got back to McCaffrey they moved the ball again. It wasn't rocket science.

Nah even under the old OT rules both teams possessed if the first team only scored a FG.

They have 23m in cap space without touching Pat's deal again and the ability to use the tag. I am pretty sure Jones will be a Chief in 2024. I think it is more likely they move on from Kelce than Jones.

KC were helped by Superbowl Shanahan refusing to run the ball for most of the 3rd Quarter. All those quick 3 and outs gave the Chiefs plenty of time and possessions to launch a comeback. The thing with Mahomes is just his ability to not make mistakes in the clutch. It is Brady-like. He plays those end of game scenarios perfectly time and again.

He is a game wrecker. But he plays the same position as the guy who is already by far our best player up front. We had our swing at a older closer on defense with Von. It sadly hasn't worked because of injury. And Jones will stay in KC IMO.

Yep. Totally. I was on record before the draft last year that I wouldn't mind as much going for less premium positions early if the limited supply of premium position talent was out of stock but that was very specific to last year's draft and that class which to me was extremely shallow. Otherwise the strategy should always be premium positions in round 1 and in round 2 you only go against that if you think the guy at the non-premium spot is an elite level guy.

To me throwing good money after bad is paying Von near $7m on top of the $32m we are already on the hook for. That is why I'd cut him and try to get a vet with that space. That is your choice IMO. Id love to get an elite WR from the top of this class but I don't see a way to do it sadly. And there are good prospects lower down. So I am still confident we can upgrade the talent around Josh in this draft. It just won't be the sure thing that the top 3 are.

I agree with most of this. But as you know I have zero faith that Von can still play and indeed would cut him. So they will need to find a d end somewhere to start. But on having too many moderate cap hits on depth guys - I totally agree. The Bills have been the deepest team in the league. But they haven't had the best starting 21 around Josh because they haven't had enough stars there. On MHJ... I think the Calvin Johnson comparison and the "best WR prospect ever" stuff is over the top but he is a very safe bet to be a #1 receiver in the NFL. On the trade up idea I just don't think it is realistic. I don't see a team in the top 6 that would want to get out. I think it is going to go QB, QB, QB, WR, WR, WR. Maybe the Chargers.... maybe. But they won't want to drop all the way to #28. The team that might be willing to get all the way out is Atlanta but I am pretty sure the top 3 receivers are gone by then.

Why? Is he gonna play for Subway Ball Club in 2025?

Believe he has links to our new DB coach. One to watch for sure.

Fiske was excellent at the Senior Bowl but still need to dig into his tape.

I haven't got deep into the DTs yet to know who I like later. Of the possible early guys - love Newton. Top 10 player in this class for me. Think Murphy is a borderline first round type. Jenkins I like round 2 but if you are a 4-3 team I'd move him down almost a full round and Sweat is a late 2nd grade wise but I can imagine him going higher. He is the first 1T type but he has more pass rush potential than he gets credit for.

How many other teams have lost a first team all pro on defense to an injury of the severity of an ACL or an achillies rupture 3 seasons in a row? I genuinely can't think of any. It hasn't been the volume of injuries necessarily in Buffalo (though we had cluster injuries at linebacker at the end of this season) it has been the severity of them and the critical nature of who they have happened to.

Not true. I cunched the numbers the other day. Of the top teams KC have 3 who play 65%+ but nobody at 70% and nobody else above about 40%. They are the closest to a consistent 4 that plays most of the game. The Bills had Ed at 70% and Greg at 60% then a chunk of guys 40-55%. That is in line with the likes of the 9ers, the Eagles, the Ravens, the Lions (nobody above 55% except Hutch who plays 90!!) and the Cowboys. And the league is trending to more rotation not less - with the exception of a handful of the very top individuals (Hutch, TJ, Crosby etc) and we don't have one of those. I think when McDermott arrived 7 years ago he was probably ahead of the curve on rotating DL but the league has caught up now and almost everyone rushes in waves rotating guys in and out.

I posted the numbers elsewhere we really don't rotate that much more than other good teams and less than some in fact. It is just the way of the NFL now that teams rotate their DLs more than ever and try and rush in waves.

Yea and Josh wouldn't have thrown his guys under the bus. Isn't his way.

I don't think that was his argument at all. It isn't that Mahomes's success has been luck it is that the Bills have had particularly bad luck on the injury front the past few years with some of their best players. In 2021 they lost Tre White after 11 games - a 2nd team all pro a year before and two years removed from a first team all pro. In 2022 they lost Von Miller after 11 games - a 3 time first team all pro and 4 time second team all pro. In 2023 they lost Tre White (as mentioned above former all pro) in game 4 and Matt Milano - a first team all pro the season prior - in game 5. I think it is probably fair to say in respect of injuries to their best players on defense the Bills have had particularly bad luck the last 3 years both with the injuries and the severity of them. I am not saying without those injuries we definitely would have won a Superbowl over the past 3 season. Not saying that at all. But I can make a strong case that at the time those players got injured (possible exception Tre this year) they were the best player on the defense. It is equivalent to the Chiefs losing Chris Jones for the stretch run 3 years in a row. So it isn't that the Chiefs are lucky, it is that the Bills have been particularly unlucky with those key injuries of a serious nature to difference making players.

My comment was about Hall not Cook.

It is easily Nate Peterman. He. Could. Not. Play.

Zimmer was there before I think. With Parcells possibly?