GunnerBill

I doubt I'll be here in 50 years.

Yea cos I don't use phrases like "it's a man's game". Grow up.

They were not all heavy man to man press schemes though. That just isn't true. Wade and Bill are really pattern matching schemes. Spags is a heavy blitz guy and lots of press Todd Bowles with the Buccs was too. There is just way too much scheme variety to group them all together. And the amount that they played man would differ greatly (I don't have the numbers in front of me) because those are not carbon copy defenses or anything close to it.

Reid is the best play caller. Shanny is the best play designer. But Reid is a better culture builder and organisational leader (whatever people think of his culture). Kyle has as many losing seasons in 7 years as Andy has in 25. He isn't close to Andy Reid as a Head Coach IMO.

What a load of bull.

There is a RANGE of schemes among those teams though. Trying to throw Spags in the same pot as Wade Phillips and them in the same pot as Bill Belichick is just basically saying "here is cover 3 / cover 1 zone and then here is everything else." Not all of those schemes were press man.

He has done that by his play design. Not by his Head Coaching accumen. He is an all time great offensive play designer. He might be the the GOAT, he is DEFINITELY the best Quarterback hider of all time. But I don't think he is top 5 in terms of game management, attention to detail or in game adjustments.

Just the way the QB market works. I don't think he will re-set the market but at the point he signs I think he will go top 5 AAV, yep. Daniel Jones went top 10 when he signed. Purdy has a lot of wins a Superbowl appearance. Just the way the market is.

Yea MVS made a huge play at the end vs Baltimore too. He is a JAG but played well in those two playoff games.

I think they have one of the highest ratios of elite level players, yes (as are the 9ers). And that elite guys and JAGs model is more proven than trying to be good everywhere IMO.

They did not play a ton more man than us. They were overwhelmingly a zone coverage team. They held and committed a lot of PI. Do I think they were more physical than us? Yea probably but they were not a press man team. They played zone with DB with length and two safeties that had corner like coverage skills. It was extremely similar to the scheme here. EDIT: what I will say is there is an argument that the cover 3 / cover 1 scheme peaked in the last decade - Seattle x2, Carolina, Atlanta all made Superbowls and were regular playoff teams. The Jags ran it in that great year they had where they made the conference Championship game. Even the Bills are more hybrid now than they were. Although having said that the Eagles ran it in 2022 and were a lot worse when they transitioned away in 2023.

I don't trust their offense in big moments.

McDuffie too (although I think our nickel IS in the conversation for best at his position. But he is like top 5/6 and McDuffie is the best IMO). It is elite talent. That is where we lack. Even at our absolute peak we had 3 - Allen, White, Diggs. We replaced White (ACL) with Von (borderline elite at that point) but then he went down too. Then White plays his first elite game since his ACL and with the game all but over ruptures his achillies, then Milano, and then second half of this year Diggs was not at an elite level. We need some more elite talent. Ed Oliver is close. Let's hope Matt comes back at his best and they fix whatever the Stef issue was. That would give us a chance. Kincaid developing is the other option.

Seattle's defense was schematically very similar to ours and one of the most defensively dominant Superbowls of all time. I don't think it has anything to do with running the wrong scheme. It is just about talent and execution.

I thought Reid was a FA? But regardless was a great pickup. He got lost in the mess at Houston but has always been very good. I think Jones is the most important piece on their defense still personally. He is a game wrecker and the two pivotal plays against the Bills and last night at the end he makes them. That isn't to diminish the two two corners at all. They are very good. But Jones is a monster with a knack of making the play in the crunch. And that is the thing with KC. They make their big plays in crunch time year after year

It comes down to this for me: Team 1 cannot win the game on their possession. It is impossible. The only way Team 1 can guarantee Team 2 can't win it on their possession is a TD and a successful 2 pointer. Which means the odds pretty good that when Team 2 gets the ball they have a chance to win it on that possession. Worrying about the 3rd possession is a red herring IMO.

He is the best offensive play designer in football and he might be the best in the last 25 years or so that I have been watching the NFL. There are many Shanahan wannabes among his group of mates now coaching across the league but only McVay even comes close and as a play designer he is behind Shanny. I don't think he is a great Head Coach though. He has a history of making bad decisions in the crunch and falling apart playcalling wise. This is the third Superbowl where he, as an OC or HC, has established a double digit lead by running the ball and then inexplicably got away from it. Honestly the knock on him was ego and it came off as ego to me last night. Was like "you all think Brock is a game manager (he is) well let me show you how good I can make him look in a Superbowl." 2024 is massive for him because when Brock Purdy is earning top 5 Quarterback money I am not sure their window will still be open.

I wasn't saying they will move on from Kelce. If he still wants to play he will be a Chief. But I think they'd be more willing to move on from him than Jones.

The only other team I'd give a chance to actually is Green Bay. If Love can back it then I think they are a legit contender. I think he may well be the best QB in the NFC based on what I saw this year. Posts crossed. Just added the Pack. Not sure the Texans have enough elite around Stroud yet. They are probably 2 years away. Lions I think just missed their best shot.

No. That is the first time we have seen those overtime rules in action. I bet every single team having watched what the 9ers did will have their analytics guys working overtime on it this offseason. If we see it next post season I am sure the play will be to defer.

I'd have Chiefs #1 Bills and 49ers joint #2 Bengals #3 Everyone else needs lightening in a bottle.

Well I agree. Once you have made the bad decision to take the ball you HAVE to play like only a TD is good enough. And you probably have to go for (and get) 2. Otherwise your opponent can win without you ever seeing the ball again.

Strong disagree.

My strong suspicion is as this system beds in the analytics will end up saying there is an advantage in going second. Knowledge is power. The team going 2nd knows what it needs. The only scenario in which the team going 2nd can't win the game when it receives the ball is the team going first going for and scoring a 2 pointer. That knowledge is worth a couple of percentage points advantage IMO.

I think we are at the point where we have to ask if it is ever going to happen for this iteration of the 49ers. They have less than $1m in cap space for 2024 and while they don't have a ton of big ticket FAs to keep they also are paying a QB peanuts. This time next year they have to pay Purdy and that means reducing some of what ia around him. I sort of felt like this year was now or never, next year is proper last chance saloon. And their window isn't like the Bills where even in a down year or a mini re-set you can say "we have a chance because we have #17." Purdy is good but at this point he isn't putting the team on his back and we saw that last night when they got away from the run in the 3rd. They feel very like the Bills to me. A really good team that just can't find a way past Kansas City when it matters. Flip the conferences and they are still waiting to go to a Superbowl and the Bills have lost twice in the big game.