
GunnerBill
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What does Elam and a pick get you in this market?
GunnerBill replied to FireChans's topic in The Stadium Wall
I think if he wanted to do a short term deal it would have happened last offseason. He wanted a longer term commitment. He has only really had one decent contract in his career. Before that he was on and off practice squads on vet minimum. I think there is very little chance he comes back without at least testing his market personally. -
What does Elam and a pick get you in this market?
GunnerBill replied to FireChans's topic in The Stadium Wall
Yep me too. Elam, a dust settles vet and a day 2 pick to compete for the job opposite Benford is my guess. And if Elam doesn't win the job (which I wouldn't expect him to) I'm not sure he will be on the roster. -
Jags trade LT Robinson to Vikings
GunnerBill replied to Ethan in Cleveland's topic in The Stadium Wall
Nah he is really good. I think his sack production so far this year is a bit of an outlier that is just one of those strange runs players can go on but as a run stopper and pocket pusher he is right up there. Especially since Daboll arrived and moved him to NT. -
Sure, I completely agree with that. But your "stats!" comment to me read as in "ignore this chart it doesn't match the eye test." I think it does meet the eye test through 8 weeks, even if there are reason especially the last two weeks to be encouraged that it will improve the second half of the year.
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I watched the all22 last night. Man oh man he was brutal. BRU.TAL. The Seahawks scoring drive in the second quarter they just went at Williams repeatedly. Four of the plays in that drive were at him and they went for a total of 47 yards. He got washed out on a screen pass to Walker for 5. Completely bit on a fake reverse and was out of his zone which allowed a pass to Bobo for 15. Was way too deep in his zone for no obvious reason and then attacked the runner square on and got made to look silly as Walker zoomed past him down the sideline for 17 and finally was way too deep in zone again for a screen to JSN for 10 that got Seattle inside the 5. His worst game of the season BY FAR. We should remember that progress with young players, especially linebackers where play recognition and instinct are big, is not always linear. But there is no way to my mind that you keep him on the field if you have Milano healthy and ready to play. Honestly, if Milano is healthy I just don't think there is any way you can trot Williams out there instead of him. Maybe Milano gets on the field and isn't Milano and you have to go back to Williams. But Williams is still being worked by misdirection drive in and drive out and I just don't think the Bills can afford to roll with a guy who so often just looks like he doesn't know where he should be.
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I mean my eyes do still tell me through 8 games the Bills, apart from Shakir, have had issues separating. That is what the stats are tracking. Did we see flashes from Coop v the Titans? Yep. Have we seen a bit more separation from Keon the last three weeks now they are not just running him vertically 90% of the time? Yep. But this is 8 weeks worth of data it isn't going to shift immediately based on the past couple of games.
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Cooper has only played 57 snaps and not all of those are passes so he is a very small bit of the data that goes into that chart.
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Josh and Hailee had a Halloween Party in OP. (Just Fluff)
GunnerBill replied to The 9 Isles's topic in The Stadium Wall
It was described to me as like a toxic episode of the Kardashians. I have never watched an episode of the Kardashians mind you. But one can imagine. -
What does Elam and a pick get you in this market?
GunnerBill replied to FireChans's topic in The Stadium Wall
Nah, the most you are getting from a guy still on the bench in year 3 is a late future day 3 pick. I suspect the Bills believe he is more valuable than that as a depth piece right now. If someone offered a mid round pick however.... well they'd pack him off as quickly as they could. -
Josh and Hailee had a Halloween Party in OP. (Just Fluff)
GunnerBill replied to The 9 Isles's topic in The Stadium Wall
Oh f**k. Let's hope it didn't go anything like the 2022 edition. It was the beginning of the end for that season. -
Maybe. I just think you can find Evans level insurance policies on the street even at this point of the season. I mean we did with Ty Johnson last year and he ended up ahead of Evans (who had all the same benefits he had this year of being in camp with the team etc) on the depth chart.
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Von Miller proves the doubters wrong
GunnerBill replied to transplantbillsfan's topic in The Stadium Wall
His highest snap count pre-suspension was 29. I think he will be active this week and play 20 snaps or so. This is their plan with Von anyway. Let Smoot (on early downs) and AJE (on passing downs) do a lot of the work. Rotate Von in situationally. Keep him fresh for the post season and hope he can make an impact at that point. The more interesting question is who sits? Personally it would be Toohill but I suspect it will be Solomon. Especially the next couple of weeks where I think the Bills plan will reflect what they did in Seattle - try and take away the run and make Tua / Flacco beat them. -
Where do I say anything that argues otherwise? Coleman's ceiling is clearly higher than Gabe's. We saw Gabe's ceiling here - he is what he is. I don't disagree at all that he has is not a natural catcher of the football, he has snatchy hands and he drops way too many balls. But my point is I always saw Coleman as an upgrade at that role in the offense. The bigger body guy who isn't a natural separator, who - certainly on the outside - is going to need to win with leverage and body control and they also had the similarity that coming into the league their release packages needed work. I said it on draft night, 40 time be damned, I think Coleman is quicker than Gabe. He certainly has better hands. And he is more versatile and a much bigger threat after the catch (which I personally felt was his best attribute on film). That isn't giving Gabe some credit he isn't due. The Bills tried to make Gabe a full time, barely comes off the field #2, that wasn't me. He failed at it and everyone knew we were in need of an upgrade at that spot. To me it was always more comfortable to see Keon as that. The Gabe Davis upgrade we all knew we needed. It is why I like the Cooper trade so much. Part of the issue for me coming into the year was I felt like they were essentially asking everyone to play up a spot. They almost had Keon trying to replace Stef Diggs and Mack Hollins trying to replace Gabe. Now with Coop in the fold and Keon breaking out, plus Shakir continuing to play at a high level in the slot I think there is a legit case that the starting wide receiver situation they have right now, today, is better than the one they had last season.
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The post you quoted literally says why I think his ceiling is where I think it is. You can disagree, that's fine. It is a game of opinions. But I don't think it is insane or or nuts.
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I'm not as high on Riq Woolen as others tbh. I think Witherspoon is the best corner on that team but Woolen isn't a mug by any means and Keon definitely won that matchup conclusively on Sunday. He is ahead of where I'd have had him at this stage. I'd have put him between 650 and 750 yards for the year (although with 7 or 8 touchdowns) and he is on pace for about 840. So there is lots there to like but I still need to see him separate better and more consistently - especially downfield - before I am willing to raise his ceiling to a true #1.
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I think this makes our game there next week a tricky one. Bills should still win but it was a slam dunk with Richardson.
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Really odd that they protected him and exposed Hardy to waivers. No. He was on IR. They opened his 4 week window to return. At the end of that window he has to go on the 53 or be cut. They don't want to use their open spot on the 53 for him because it is for Von now his suspension is over and so Evans is cut straight from IR.
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I didn't mind Coleman as a selection if you were seeing him as a replacement for Gabe Davis. And I had that discussion with @HappyDays way before the 40 time (my concerns with him were never speed, they were separation and the two are different). I think he is a more athletic, more versatile version of Gabe who can do what Gabe could do and more besides. I didn't think he was a true #1 type because he struggled to separate, especially vertically. I still don't. But he was one of the younger guys among this class so I get the bet on traits and hope the best is yet to come take. He had a great game Sunday. He played better Sunday than against the Titans IMO, even though the yardage tally would tell you different.
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Diontae Johnson to the Ravens (now claimed by Houston)
GunnerBill replied to Process's topic in The Stadium Wall
He isnt even in Cooper's league. Seriously. Because he is a terrible guy in the locker room and in a season going south just get those guys outta there. -
Diontae Johnson to the Ravens (now claimed by Houston)
GunnerBill replied to Process's topic in The Stadium Wall
Meh. Never really rated him. I think that is cheap compared to what Carolina paid 6 months ago. Tells you all you need to know about him. Average player, bad teammate. -
Rex and Woody remain close. And Rex is definitely lobbying for that job. I've said for a while I think he will get a serious look and I don't mean just as the interim. I think they'll consider him as the long term replacement too.
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Anything good left to pick from the Patriots' carcass?
GunnerBill replied to Utah John's topic in The Stadium Wall
If they want to sell off Gonzalez I'm all ears. -
They are both backups IMO. I thought that when we overdrafted both of them. The idea being two backups = starter. It doesn't.
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To those who insisted when he was here that Singletary was a legit starting running back: He left to go and be the backup in Houston and has now lost his job to a 5th round rookie in New York. While he definitely played with some less than stellar olines in Buffalo some of the struggles with our run game for years came down to Singletary and Moss being pedestrian plodders.
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Rookie WR Separation win-rates thru week 5
GunnerBill replied to Big Blitz's topic in The Stadium Wall
Appreciate not "win rate" which is % of routes where the receiver is consider to have won the route... those data points are behind a paywall on data.fantasypoints.com but I did just check in NextGen's average separation stats and, halfway through the year, for rookie receivers (with minimum 25 targets) it looks as so: 1. Xavier Worthy - Chiefs (1st round pick) - 3.6 yards (36% slot) #7 in receiving yards 2. Rome Odunze - Bears (1st round pick) - 3 yards (34% slot) #6 in receiving yards 3. Brian Thomas - Jaguars (1st round pick) - 3 yards (26% slot) #1 in receiving yards 4. Xavier Legette - Panthers (1st round pick) - 2.9 yards (33% slot) #8 in receiving yards 5. Malik Nabers - Giants (1st round pick) - 2.8 yards (26% slot) #2 in receiving yards 6. Adonai Mitchell - Colts (2nd round pick) - 2.8 yards (34% slot) #9 in receiving yards 7. Ladd McConkey - Chargers (2nd round pick) - 2.7 yards (68% slot) #5 in receiving yards 8. Keon Coleman - Bills (2nd round pick) - 2.2 yards (6% slot) #4 in receiving yards 9. Marvin Harrison - Cardinals (1st round pick) - 1.8 yards (26% slot) #3 in receiving yards 10. Ja'Lynn Polk - Patriots (2nd round pick) - 1.7 yards (15% slot) #10 in receiving yards Few things to note: I've included the % of snaps each guy has played in the slot because they lend themselves naturally to free releases and therefore higher average separation rates. It's particularly relevant to Coleman obviously because he has the lowest slot percentage which will to an extent be impacting his separation - although I remain of the view that vertical separation is never really going to be his game. Coleman's slot usage was 0% through the first three games. It has ticked up since and has been just over 10% for the past three weeks. I have said elsewhere I think the Bills were guilty of trying to force him into a X receiver straightjacket early this season and I repeat, that is not his game. The acquisition of Cooper allows them to move Keon - they have used him as as some X, some Z and a bit of slot the last few weeks and the results speak for themselves. Equally I'd be slightly concerned that McConkey's separation rate isn't higher given his use primarily as a slot receiver. For comparison, our own Khalil Shakir is #2 among all receivers with 4.3 yards of average separation as a guys in the slot 73% of the time. It is encouraging if you are a Panthers or Colts fan because Legette and Mitchell's separation rates are solid. That supports the theory that their lower production rates are at least in some part due to the Quarterback play. They both rank in the top 15 of uncatchable targets for the season too. Whereas if you are a Cardinals fan I'd be worrying less about the supposed lack of "chemistry" between Murray and Harrison and more about whether Harrison is actually getting open enough to be thrown the ball more. Polk at 1.7 yards is the lowest qualifying receiver in separation per NextGen. He is second only to Coleman in terms of usage on the boundary, which has an impact and his ceiling is impacted by is QB play but he is another guy for whom separation was a genuine concern on tape IMO. Troy Franklin (3.7) and Jaelen McMillan (3.1) both just missed out on enough targets to qualify but will be interesting to look at later in the year as two guys who went later in the draft. Some might say, what does separation rate matter only production matters. While ultimately that is true looking at bald production - especially over a relatively small sample size - can result in misleading conclusions. Looking at the underlying data gives you another layer of understanding as to what is going on. This was a talented receiver class and other than possibly Polk (who as recognised above is probably in the worst combined situation of usage and QB play) the rest of them have all demonstrated at least some exciting potential thus far.