GunnerBill

Beane argues, and it is not untrue, that the covid cap reduction threw all his plans out of kilter. There is some truth to that. Teams who were at the start of a Championship window in that period were hit the hardest because the last couple of years they had with a rookie QB as buyers in the market got sucked away by a reduced cap. However, you are right..... there is also money he has had to throw at Oline and Dline that is a direct result of the misses on the likes of Cody Ford and Boogie Basham and the fact that AJE and Rousseau were not in themselves difference makers. He is about to be in the same spot with Douglas when if Elam was ready, even with Tre's injuries, you should have been able to transition more smoothly to a cheap deal. So I do give him a bit of leeway on the covid cap implications but also, yea, he has gone hunting for difference makers in FA to cover one or two of his misses. I heard $252m mooted on Sunday by a twitter account of a guy who is pretty plugged in. That extra $10-12m would be huge for the Bills.

I am not talking about cap hits though, players don't really care about cap hits. That is for GMs and fans to worry about. Players worry about cash. When Allen gets his new deal it will come with a hefty signing bonus which will give him an even bigger payday even though the Bills will account for it over multiple years (as many as possible) to spread it out and lower the hit. I think Josh will play 2024 and 2025 on the current deal. Summer 2025 is when I expect him to extend.

In AAV terms, sure. But in cash terms he is gonna get about $47m this year after the restructure. Next year he will get $49.5m after the next restructure. After that his contract will get re-done because it would be almost certain his cash number would start falling per year after that.

They will re-sign him before the league year opens. Not franchising him does not mean he will hit FA.

It is real. But it is an accounting cap. It isn't a salary cap.

I see receivers check with the official routinely. Always have. It happens literally every game. Toney didn't. That is on nobody but Toney. He is dumb. And he did a dumb thing. And the officials penalised him for it.

It really doesn't happen all the time. That is a narrative that Chiefs fans have written to fot their agenda.

I have Arnold as my CB1 in the class and he is my top ranked 'Bama player. Him and Turner are the two definite firsts on my board. I have Kool-Aid as a borderline first. I actually think he probably has some of the best press man coverage traits at the top of this corner class. Consistency is the question mark I have for him, especially under the deep ball and against more physical receivers. I don't see a first round player in Braswell - "bull rusher" - is the right description, not sure I see an array of pass rush moves or a lot of bend. He is a #2 defensive end in base who you might take off the field or shunt inside in obvious pass situations in my view. Anywhere on day 2 wouldn't surprise me, from top of 2nd to late 3rd. JC Latham is not a first rounder either to me. He is a right tackle only, so that takes round 1 out of the equation for me. I'm not sold that he is a high floor guy either for the reasons @Bill from NYC alluded to. If you want high ceiling right tackles I'd take Guyton and Mims before him. If you want high floor OT who could play either side I'd take Jordan Morgan ahead of him. Latham is my OT7 and a late 2nd round grade. Jermaine Burton is intriguing. Pure tape grade I gave him a late 2nd. Love the separation and play speed (even if he might run mid 4.4s I think he plays as fast as some of the fliers) but I worry about strength and ability v press man and again consistency is a bit of an issue. Not sure you see the same effort every play.

I think being here in 2024 is close to a lock. I am much less persuaded than the C1 guys that he is here beyond that.

I don't wish it did because it is the joy of the NFL in a sense. Compare it to soccer and the Premier League over here and everyone plays everyone else, home and away, over 38 games. When it comes to the end you can be pretty confident the best team won. That isn't the way the NFL works. The best team doesn't always win the Superbowl. Single game elimination, tournament style sport does not always produce the best winner because the sample size allows luck, injury breaks, one amazing play, flukes (helmet catch) to have much more of a definitive impact. The flip side of all that is it makes it much harder to repeat. Which is why it hadn't been done in 20 years and why nobody should diminish the Chiefs achievement in doing so, especially as IMO they HAVE beaten the two best NFC teams over that period in the Superbowl.

Genuinely, that isn't healthy. I got there for a time with Arsenal in the early 00s. We had an incredible team playing fantastic football and when I look back now I don't know how much, if at all, I enjoyed it at the time. Because I was so obsessed with the outcome. I was a teenage / in my early 20s and definitely less mature but I lived emotionally through the team. I have been much better at enjoying this era of Bills football and Arsenal's renaissance the past couple of years because I have recognised that my emotions have zero impact on the outcome. Still get nervous, still delighted when they win and gutted when they lose. But I enjoy watching the games. Agree. As you said in your following post the Bills and SF are in the same place IMO. They are the two teams who can and do go toe to toe with KC but can't get past them in the post season. San Fran gets to see them later because of conference alignment. Nothing more than that.

I agree too. I have a 2nd/3rd borderline on him. If you are a team looking for someone who can work the middle of the field for you, sure, go draft him. For what the Bills need is he doesn't fit.

I agree with most of this but there was nothing random or unlucky about the flag on Toney. A bad player, made a bad play. All of these games between the two teams are now coming down to either a bad player making a mistake or a good player making a great play.

Yep. 2nd half of the season Diggs was not Diggs so I think that is right. And I have long argued our issue has been lots of good, not enough great.

Yep, you got it. And agree it doesn't impact the decision on keep or cut. But was just an example of where what they were saying was somewhat misleading.

Moderately wrong on Zay. My main point was he needed really specific usage.

I accept the Josh Allen line. The soccer line is beyond the pale.

$22m is the right number. What I am saying is that $9m of that $22m is already baked in. He costs that if he plays. He costs that if he doesn't. So starting from "at the moment we have $31m of space in 2024 and cutting Diggs would eat $22m of that" is wrong. It would eat $13m of that. Because the other $9m is already accounted for in 2025 before you work out the cap space figure.

I just watched some of the video and they say a lot of things that are not actually correct. I question whether they all understand the cap as well as they give the impression they do. For example the Diggs conversation. They say "well if we traded him after June 1 this year sure it opens up $19m in 2024 space but it eats up $22m of our $31m of current cap space for 2025. WRONG. The $31m already accounts for $9m of what would be the $22m total dead money because that is guaranteed money that accounts on the cap in 2025 whatever happens. The additonal $13m would accelerate to the 2025 cap if we traded him post 1 June this year. I don't think the difference affects the decision around whether you trade him or not particularly. But it is just an example of where these guys speak with authority and fans are taking them as gospel and not everything they are saying is accurate. There were a couple of others in the 25 mins I listened to but that one stood out. They consistently make the mistake of thinking all dead cap money is new money you are adding onto cap hits and some of that money is already baked in.

And even on this roster Matt Milano says hi.

I think there is a good chance he is WR6 and will be there. Looks like based on Senior Bowl chatter most teams still have Coleman as a top 25 player. So the top 3, Coleman, Thomas is likely the first 5 off the board. I also think there is a chance no more than 4 have gone when we pick.

A. The NFL is a money making machine. Boards won't need to cut an individual player to make profits that secure their bonuses; and B. Even if that were not the case the current model already treats the players like pawns in the game, especially compared to sports with fully guaranteed contracts. The corporate machine already doesn't care.

I have seen it happen in soccer to an extent. The local rich guy done good is priced out by the billionaire and then the billionaire is priced out by the conglomerate. It is the inveitable result of capitalism. Sports franchises retain their value better than almost any other asset.

Agree with all this except I am higher on Allen and McDermott's chances than you.

They looked great against Skylar. The offense and special teams kept putting them in holes. Skylar had two drives over 30 yards all game.