GunnerBill

Yea you hope your due diligence team picks this sort of stuff up.

And that is why a reunion was never likely. It wasn't about his guilt or innocence. It was about the fact that the trust was broken. It's a shame because I think what he likely did is panic when this blew up and rather than telling the truth and admitting to the things he had done but steadfastly defending himself on the things he hadn't he went for denial initially. It is understandable. I really feel for the kid. I was in the "don't rush to judgment" camp but the social media world makes it really difficult and put him and the Bills in an extremely difficult position.

I think Diggs is definitely here one year, possible two. But it isn't necessarily about how long Diggs is here... it is just about if you think there is a bit a decline in Diggs then leaving yourself this coming year with only him and a load of young guys who haven't played much is a risk.

Yea Martin did not have a good year. Of course the plan WAS to have a rookie deal guy with a big leg in Araiza before the incident. I am much less of a "must have a big leg" guy and much more of a directional punting guy but Martin struggled in both elements for much of 2023. A big part of the reason their special teams (particularly their coverage units) took a step back last year was the loss of Taiwan Jones. He was genuinely elite at what he did. I know fans hated him because he offered nothing as a running back but the Bills tried multiple guys at the other gunner spot opposite Neal last year and none of them performed close to Jones. They dropped 10 spots in both kick and punt coverage rankings - more than 2 yards worse per kick return and more than 3 yards worse per punt return on average. This is true. But he'd need to be basically the best in the league. Is that possible? Yea. Is it likely? Not at all.

The issue with Araiza is his hang time isn't great either. Hang time and directional punting are both weaknesses. What he does have is one of the strongest punting legs I've ever seen. I don't rule out him kicking a touchback even punting from his own 25 but there is going to be some risk with him IMO because he is a line drive punter and when you leave those short.... that is when big returns happen. All of which I was saying when we drafted him by the way... my comment at the time in my 2022 Draft day 3 debrief thread was: "I don't scout punters but obviously it was a need position and Matt Arazia certainly has a huge leg. The videos I have seen hang time would be somewhat of a concern and while when he catches one properly he likely takes returns out of the picture he only has to slightly mis-hit one and a big return becomes a risk because he almost line drives them. Getting him and the coverage unit in sync in camp and pre-season will matter."

Thought I'd post this one because it started quite differently and that kind of forced it to go away from some of the standard picks we have seen in these: 28. Laiatu Latu, EDGE, UCLA - He was still there and my golden rule in the draft is never reach down a tier just for need. If you want to reach within a tier of prospects to take a guy you have graded slightly lower because you have a need at the position, fine. There will be questions about Latu's health situation but on the basis that he doesn't get red flagged he is a top tier prospect in this class. The Bills do have expiring contracts at edge as well so while it isn't the #1 need it is a need. ***TRADE!!! Bills give up #60 (2nd round); #129 (4th round); and #162 (5th round) for #52 (2nd round) and #212 (6th round)*** 52. Xavier Legette, Wide Receiver, South Carolina - People know I am higher than the consensus on Legette but my plan wasn't to trade up for him until the run on receivers started. By #50 ELEVEN receivers were off the board. Legette and Polk were the only two of all the guys we have talked about ad nauseum on this board left. Legette has future #1 receiver ceiling and I don't think Polk does. Polk went two picks later to the Browns making it 13 in the first 54 picks. 100. Dominick Puni, Guard, Kansas - I wasn't necessarily looking to take an offensive lineman here but the way the board fell Puni made most sense. I think end of the third is about his range. He is an older prospect (turns 24 tomorrow) and has played six years of college football. What that means is he is coming out pretty much the finished article in terms of physical profile but I like him technically and while I think he starts in the NFL at guard (maybe making McGovern an option at center if the Bills move on from Mitch Morse?) he played left tackle for Kansas and could definitely get you out of a game there if you needed him to. ***TRADE!!! Bills give up #159 (5th round); and #212 (6th round) for #151 (5th round)*** 151. Keith Randolph Jnr, Defensive Tackle, Illinois - I started trying to move up to target a receiver (Jermaine Burton was still on the board) but he went right before I was able to find a trade that worked. I decided to still pull the trigger and target Randolph who is a really physical run defender despite not being the biggest guy ever and I think could end up as a starting 1tech in the league. 198. Zion Tupuola- Fetui, Edge, Washington - Another older prospect and not someone I'd necessarily consider value earlier in the draft because he has limited second contract potential and is probably a backup / rotational player rather than a starter. But as a 6th round flier I think he has more natural talent than a lot of the guys left on the board at this spot. I'll use his cheap rookie contract years up as a low price DLine backup then let him walk. 202. Anthony Gould, Wide Receiver, Oregon State - I finally got a second receiver but he isn't really a receiver he is a return specialist. Even though he had 700 yards as a receiver in his final year in college at 5'8 his NFL ceiling is probably an Isaiah McKenzie type returner combined with some gimmick use in the offense. He had two punt return touchdowns in college and followed that up with one in the Shrine Bowl game. The Bills two return man options on the current roster are both expensive. Gould allows you to get cheaper at that spot. 206. Joe Milton, Quarterback, Tennessee - I have picked Milton in almost every one of these I've done. I am clear the Bills should take a swing on a toolsy Quarterback with one of their late day 3 picks in the hope of ending up with a cheap backup if not immediately then certainly after a year on the practice squad as a rookie. 246. Dadrion Taylor-Demerson, Safety, Texas Tech - This was the first time the value at safety lined up with where I was picking. I actually think he is a fit for the Bills scheme based on my limited exposure to him. He looks like a zone safety. I have seen a fair few people grade him as an early day three pick so in the 7th round he represents value and even if he doesn't become an every down starter his coverage skills make him a legit candidate to play in dime packages. Not necessarily saying I love this draft, I am disappointed not to get a viable developmental safety and second receiver earlier, but in terms of an interesting draft that fell differently than a lot of the others on here I thought worth posting and talking through.

Just based on your last two efforts I like Jackson at #98 a lot better than I like him at #60. I don't like Dorlus as a scheme fit for the Bills though. He is a 5tech who needs to play defensive end in a 3-4 IMO.

This is my preference too - get two guys in the draft who are going to be here for 4 years minimum with Josh rather than 1/2 year vet guy. But that does sort of depend how they really feel about Diggs in the building. If they think the production drop 2nd half of the year was a case of him being a bit banged up, Josh and he just failing to connect on 3/4 deep balls (between Stef dropping a couple and Josh missing him on a couple of potential big home runs) and teams really keying in on him with Gabe's struggles then I'd go to the two rookie route. If, however, their honest view is there are signs of the beginning of the decline with Stef then I think I'd want another vet option in the building.

They played most of this season with Tyrel Dodson starting at linebacker and a revolving door of characters coming in and out of the secondary and they were a top 10 defense. They need some pieces there but beyond one safety they are not pieces I think they should be dedicating a lot of $$s to. My plan is make a safety your 1 first wave of free agency move - but don't pay top of the market there will be 8-10 serviceable vet starters out there. And I'd try again in the June market for a vet pass rusher with the money I'd save by cutting the corpse of Von Miller's career. I don't think the Bills will do that though, Von will likely be here, so safety would be my only reasonably sized contract. They will need some lower value Dline depth pieces but I'm talking contracts of the level that they don't get comp pick formula consideration (not saying the comp pick formula should be be all and end all by the way, that is just a proxy for the value level I'm talking in terms of those backups. If I was making a second move in the initial free agency wave it would be a vet receiver. DJ Chark, Josh Reynolds, maybe Kendrick Bourne. Someone in that sort of tier. I'd probably pass on the vet route though and be trying to get two viable receivers from the draft though. Ideally I want someone with #1 receiver ceiling early and then someone late with some inside/outside flex who can be what Gabe was his first two years here and be your first guy in off the bench who knows all three spots.

Not at punter it isn't. I was never quite as high as the hype on him but I certainly understand the swing on his potential at a cheap price.

It is a downgrade in punting. There is no other way of seeing it. Townsend is the best punter in the league. Whether it makes financial sense is a different question. I understand what the Chiefs are thinking. They are thinking we can afford to get worse at punter rather than some other spots. I get that. But they are getting worse if they swap Townsend for Araiza.

Yea I think Townsend wants the highest punting contract on the market. I think Araiza will start there. But he is a downgrade on Townsend. My issue with Araiza was always his hang time was a problem despite his leg.

Agree. I am delighted Matt has got another shot. He is an innocent man and deserves the chance to re-start his career. But if he is in place of Townsend he is likely a downgrade for KC.

Because across 2021 and 2022 he was a top 5 Tight End in terms of redzone production. His production elsewhere was a result of game plan not any lack of ability on his part - he was top 10 (all players) in separation rates per Next Gen Stats - the Bills just ignored him. Where the Bills used him, he was excellent. I am willing to give him a mulligan on 2023 given the injuries. He played hurt from week 2 on until they finally shut him down for a chunk of the year. I do think the drafting of Kincaid and the fact that Josh prefers to play in 11 means his bare production has a ceiling, but he is still a very good player.

I'd forgotten Rice. I think he'd still go ahead of Nacua too. I'm not disputing the point that you can find good receivers later. But the draft isn't a total crap shoot and you normally find the best receivers at the top of the class. That isn't to say I disagree with you on Diggs. I don't. While he definitely slowed down the stretch last year he is still a good receiver and I think with an upgrade at the vertical receiver spot opposite him that stops teams shading coverage to Diggs's side and bracketing him he will still put 1,000 yards next year. It also doesn't really help a 2025 re-set. So the argument that it is about taking the pain this year doesn't really work. Diggs will be here in 2024. I am 99.9% sure of it. And he should be too. I think whether he is here BEYOND 2024 is a much better debate. The Cover 1 crew think he will by and large. I am not as convinced. I think it really depends a lot on what happens this year.

Nacua was the most productive rookie. If you re-drafted the 2023 class I still don't think you'd take him as the first receiver off the board though. I think Addison and Flowers would be the first two. Nacua would go third for me.

I have seen a few say Chop is a 3-4 guy only. That is not how I see him. I think he can play in a 4-3. He has the skillset to do it he just might not be the guy you want in on a lot of early downs as a rookie because he hasn't done much of it and has some room to work on diagnosing the run game and maintaining his gap discipline. To be clear I wasn't saying I'd draft him for the Bills. But I can see him being their type. He is the definition of high ceiling and toolsy even if the production does not match the hype. With the exception of last year the Bills have gone for measurables and traits early in the draft. If it is not receiver (I think it will be) then when I look at the guys who are likely going to be coming off the board in that final 6 or 7 picks of round one area and think about combining what the Bills value with a reasonable need he is the guy that stands out as a possibility to me.

So could I. If it isn't a WR I think he is in the mix. Right draft range and their type.

I'd rip the band aid off with Miller. I'd keep Stef one more year, because that is the sensible way to play it if you want to eat pain this year and free yourself up next year as long as you do not (and I wouldn't) press the restructure button which allows them to save money this year with him but costs more next year.

I agree with this. My only quibble is I defend them a bit on last year's draft. Because as a draft, it pretty much sucked. I was fine with taking a profit from last year's draft. I am almost always a "take shots at ceiling at premium positions" guy - especially round 1. But I said even going into the draft last year that I would take a softer view on non-premium position picks if they went a bit safe because I felt and still feel a lot of teams will get 4 years down the road from the 2023 NFL Draft and have zero starters from that class. I would hope and expect Beane to go back to his bigger swing on premium position traits approach in 2024.

Yea. If the Bills want Franklin at #28 he will be there IMO. Agree McConkey way too high and Legette too low.

Correct but it didn't change his AAV. It was moving money around within the life of the long contract. And the reason they did it was CASH. Mahomes wasn't saying "My AAV is down to 8th highest among QBs I want a new deal" he was saying "hang on guys you are not putting enough money in my pockets over the middle section of this deal you need to move some money up" which is what the Chiefs did. It is the opposite to the restructures with Josh which are about moving money back to create cap space. Mahomes was asking them to move money forward to improve his real terms cash position over the next 3 years. And that is why I don't see Josh agitating yet. Because his cash position is still pretty strong for the next two years. After that his cash position weakens and that is when the Bills likely need to re-visit that deal.

Exactly this. Josh's AAV is now below market value, no doubt, but as of yet it hasn't hurt him in real terms in terms of pay. It won't really until after 2025. There is a chance though that if the Bills see Mahomes do a new deal they want to move quickly because if you wait too long after Mahomes the market moves again and suddenly in AAV terms Josh is #1. Which obviously tightens up other things. That Mahomes re-do proves my point. It wasn't about AAV. It was about cash.

He is a level above Spencer Brown, Dalton Kincaid and James Cook though. I think Ed is a blue chip. I just think need a higher category above that which only Josh sits in for us. Ed Oliver was our 2nd best player in 2023 though. And it wasn't close IMO. Yea agree on Breece vs Cook. If I am giving the edge to anyone I give it to Cook. Taron it is probably contract related (1 year left) but they will have no issue fixing thst and extending him IMO

Yes, but you don't care about your specific cap number. You care that you are getting paid a good chunk of change every year. If you can do that in a way that helps manage the cap, great. But you don't really fixate on your cap number. That isn't what matters.