GunnerBill

Confidence back? What about his ability to move back?

Correct for those early days of free agency guys. But I suspect the Bills would have, and still will, be very quiet in that period. I am thinking max 3 guys (a starting calibre safety, a depth wide receiver and a 1T defensive tackle - if Jones is not kept) more likely 1 or 2. The reason it helps teams like the Bills more is because it gives more freedom to operate in the dust settled free agent market. Those contracts typically don't keep up with the cap inflation to the same level. It basically gives them the freedom to make a Leonard Floyd type move in May or June which was going to be tricky previously. They will restructure Knox - 100%. They won't touch Miller. I think they will really try not to touch Diggs too. Jones is almost a certainty to be back in KC IMO. Sneed might be trickier. He is a hard decision for KC. He has played 1 year of full time outside corner. He was a top 5 or 6 guy this year but can him a top outside corner rate based on one year? Before that he was a slot. If he wants top of the market money I suspect they'd let him walk.

It isn't this year that concerns me so much - they can definitely afford them this year. But Tee at c.$22m AAV and Chase at a market re-setting $32m (could even be more if JJ gets done first)... when you add that to Joe Burrow it makes it tight in future years, especially with an owner who wants to be cash to cap and doesn't necessarily have the means to keep writing those big bonus checks to restructure year after year.

Yea but they are going to have to pay Chase this year. The elite guys want paying as soon as they come due now - after year 3. If they don't pay Chase expect it to get tense quite quickly. Now the way you do that normally is you give him a huge chunk of change as a bonus so that it doesn't make a big dent in the cap until after the rookie contract years are done. But Mike Brown is a cash to cap guy. He doesn't have deep pockets to start throwing a lot of money around up front and then just account for it on the cap over the long term. It just makes it tricky. I don't think this is the right play by the Bengals (and I have always liked Tee a lot) unless they are going to try the much talked about, rarely executed, tag and trade option turn that 3rd round comp pick into a 1st or high 2nd maybe?

As I understand it he never wanted to retire. The doctors at Washington wouldn't clear him to play. They essentially retired him. Hence he entered there transfer portal looking for somewhere he had a shot at getting cleared to play. Now does the neck injury make him potentially a higher risk of reinjuring and properly being done? Yes. How much higher that risk is will be the question and each team's doctors will be all over his medicals. But if the medicals get the green light I don't see him as any greater risk of retiring through choice than any other player who potentially gets a serious injury. And as @Dr. Who alludes to above it is not a good edge class in terms of depth. It is the top 3 who are all legit first rounders - Turner, Verse and Latu. Then there is a second tier that probably goes Chop Robinson Brice, Braswell. Then I have tier 3 as Isaac and Elliss. And that is basically it in terms of guys I would be willing to take before late day 3. Probably only 8 edge guys in the top 150 players or so in this class. EDIT: the one other guy I suppose is Darius Robinson. Pure tape evaluation I see him as a 5tech who is too stiff to play as a true edge but he had a great senior bowl week and there probably will be teams who feel he can be a 4-3 end or do some stand up rushing from outside in a 3-4. I get that. It is pure projection though based on the tape.

No, you are right... 2nd first turned into Tremaine now I think more specfically. It was our 1st, our 2nd, the Watkins 2nd and Cordy Glenn to get up for Josh. Their 1st and our 3rd (or possibly the Tyrod 3rd, don't recall) for Tremaine. I suppose I tend to think everything they did in terms of collecting assets for that draft was about getting their Quarterback, slightly regardless of how the exact pic exchanges worked out but you are right in factual terms Josh wasn't from the Mahomes pick.

Kansas City won the trade. Without question. They drafted the best QB in football. But the Bills did about as good a job losing a trade as you could ever do. An all pro corner and then a pick that helped them land the 2nd best QB in football the following year.

Yes but that is why kicking the can on deals is good cap management. Because that isn't money that keeps up with the cap and salary inflation. It is moving money on old deals around. So say moving $12m of a deal signed in 2024 into chunks of $4m in 25, 26, 27 gradually devalues that money as a percentage of cap year on year.

It is but it is going to be going up $20m per for the forseable even after the tv deal has settled in.

It is why kicking the can is never the disaster people think. Because the cap keeps rising by significant amounts.

How does it?

I just asked Joe what his level of confidence is in Von having any impact at all in 2024 - his answer? None whatsoever.

Just heard a really good stat on Joe B's live roster primer on the Athletic. As a rookie Rousseau playes 100% left end. In 2022 it was 83% In 2023 it was only 45% He played a LOT more right end which is not his strongest position to accomodate Floyd and Von who both also wanna play left end. Not saying it completely explains why his production isn't higher but definitely worth considering.

Yea this was a year the Bills need it more than most.

Of those two options at those prices it is Gabe, no question. But I think he will get more than $10.5m too.

Not sure I fully understand the question. But I think Gabe is getting more than that. Sherfield as a last resort, yes. But I'd hope we can set our sights a tad higher than that.

You are missing the point. I am not arguing they should signa boundary receiver to be the #2 ahead of a draft pick. That isn't my argument.

Just watched Joe Marino on Locked on Bills and he basically gets to the same numbers. He saves a bit more on Douglas and a bit less on Johnson with his suggested structures but they balance out the same. These three extensions combined get you about $17-18m in space.

I think this year he will be restructured and stay. A trade is a possibility next offseason though. That makes a lot of sense to me.

That is the cap hit. He actually "made" $12.4m last year. The cap hit was $6.4m He will "make" $10.5m last year. The cap hit is currently $14.3m but will likely end up $11.5m

Agree we will never know. I suspect he panicked and tried to make it sound better than it was when the Bills first asked him and had to row back later. I can think of at least two occasions in my younger life where I reacted that way when I should have been honest straight off the bat. Not as serious as the Araiza situation but where I hadn't done anything that bad but thought denying everything flat out was the way to go.

I am not talking about looking to free agency for an upgrade to Davis. I don't think you will find one for a price the Bills can go to. Shakir and Kincaid are slot guys. I'm talking about if you think Diggs is still an elite option or close to it outside then you can fly with 2 or 3 guys (2 picks plus possibly Shorter) who have never played a down of NFL football. If you think there is a decline in Diggs game then it is probably wise to at least have another veteran option who can offer you something early in the season while you phase some young guys in. I don't expect that guy to be an upgrade on Gabe. Not at all. I expect that guy to be an upgrade on Sherfield or the year before on Kumerow. Your long term #2 (and hopefully long term #1) has to be the drafted guy. But if you have a somewhat diminished #1 and a #2 that takes some time to get up to speed your passing game is going to suffer in the short term. You would need someone else to pick up some slack.

If you can't enjoy watching this Bills team play I don't know what to tell you.

On the Green Bay example, the difference is they were not in a place where the playoffs were a must this year. It was much more a "see what we have" season. It worked out but they could afford to take a flier a bit more. My point is if Stef is still at or close to his best standard then even if your early draft pick rookie takes some time to come along and only breaks out second half of the year you are fine for Diggs to carry the burden until then with the underneath guys helping out. But if they think there is real decline you better have a vet in there who has some real experience of being an outside receiver. My first preference is the same as yours - draft two. But I think there is a world where I flip to "you need a baseline in here" in terms of a vet.

I don't agree on the first point I just don't think that is who Beane is. I think he would be much more careful than that and I remember that press conference well he looked genuinely crestfallen. I suspect what he based that on is a further conversation with Matt where he changed his story somewhat from earlier versions he had told the Bills once the material was in the public domain. I agree completely on your second point but unfortunately I fear the genie is out of the bottle and won't go back. Social media mob culture is here to stay.