GunnerBill

He can play Center, yep. Was a good signing. I said at the time we made much better OL moves last offseason - signing McGovern and drafting Torrence - than the year before - signing Saffold and committing to Bates.

I think Legette will run faster than McConkey.

Great career. He can still write and be a thought provoking columnist.... but everyone has a sell by date. Go while people are still sorry to see you leave.

I don't think Bryce is top tier and the rest of their WRs aside from Wilson suck balls.

So would I if it were on offer. It is a long shot but that is the only way to me that moving Diggs this year is sensible. This time next year I think it is much more feasible that the Bills and Stef part company.

Round 3 is the earliest IMO.

I don't know where you saw those numbers but they are not correct. Any movement of Diggs now escalates his full guarantee onto the 2024 cap and costs us additional money. You are right on the $18.5m actual cash saving if he is traded but Pegula isn't someone who has been bothered by actusl cash thus far. Hence Beane has had the freedom to maximise the cap flexibility. I suppose there is one way that makes sense which is a post 1 June trade player for player for problem children receivers. Say Diggs for AJ Brown straight up if both want out. We could absorb AJ's contract within the $19m cap space we make for Stef. Not totally sure the Eagles can do the same because they only save about $2m in 2024 space from a post 1 June trade of AJ and Stef would still cost $18.5m base even leaving his dead money here. There are ways of resolving that potentially so something like that is feasible but it is a complete long shot.

It is that he has not a single extra dollar due from the Bills at this point and his best chance of rehabbing and getting back to form is here where the regime love him, the team knows his body and he knows the scheme. Therefore there is incentive to offer him a small amount of guaranteed new money (I suggested $8m, I think Joe B suggested $10m) in exchange for him taking a significant cut in the unguaranteed chunks he is due in 2024 and 2025. That way you lower his cap hits to about $10m per year the next two years, kick a little bit of the bonus into some void years beyond 2025 (and I'm talking max $4-5m spread over two years) and give yourself Tre under contract in 2024 while still saving the same $$s off the cap as cutting him would and you get an out after 2024 so if he is washed or he gets hurt again you can move on and it costs you less than the $10m in dead money it costs now if we cut him.

If you cut him today all his guarantees ($31m) accelerate onto this year's cap and he costs you $3.2m more to NOT play for you in 2024 than he would to play for you. That makes no sense paying a 1,000 yard receiver to go away. That would clear Diggs from the cap for 2025 and beyond but makes no sense. If you cut him after the start of the league year as a post 1 June cut it gains you $19m in 2024 space but all the remaining hits accelerate onto the 2025 cap. It would save you $5m of space on the 2025 cap (he's account just for the $22m of dead money and not the entire $27m he is slated to cost next year) but it saves you nothing additional to what cutting him after 2024 would. The problem with scenario 2 is you can't spend that money until after 1 June. So you cut Diggs after the point the chance to replace him is gone. I think by far the most sensible outcome is the Bills do nothing with his contract this spring, do no restructure him or kick the can further and re-visit it next January. At that point cutting him, trading him, or restructuring him should all be on the table depending on where we are with his performance and his level of commitment to the team.

I don't think they planned to draft a tight end. They planned to draft a receiver but knew they needed a weapon for Josh and Dalton is more a receiver than a two way tight end in any event at this point. Of his 784 offensive snaps in 2023 he only played tight end on 247 of those and almost 50% came in the five games Knox missed. He was 50% a slot receiver, 31% a tight end, 18% split wide and 1% in the backfield. So I don't think they drafted him for his tight end skill so much as they drafted him for his pass catching. Not that I'm arguing receiving tight ends and wide receivers are completely interchangeable, they are not. And while the Bills played a fair amount of 12 personnel in 2023 they have to remain balanced with 11. But I don't think they were planning to replace Knox going into the 2023 draft, or coming out of it. However, where they are now I'm not sure they are going to be able to be a 60% plus 12 personnel team. But equally I don't think you can yet go heavy 11 with Dalton Kincaid and have the flexibility to run or pass down to down. They are going to have to be a bit more package specific with them in the short term. I suspect another year of both of them, let Kincaid work on his blocking (there was some improvement as 2023 wore on) and then next spring I can imagine them taking calls for Knox for a mid round pick. As long as he continues to be an effective redzone weapon (and at the moment in the redzone I think Knox is still BETTER than Kincaid) he will have trade value. On the pass receiving back thing I think you have more of a point about there being a disconnect somewhere. Beane has obsessed over pass catching backs since he has been here. They have had multiple goes at filling that role - from TJ Yeldon, to the guy they tried to get from Washington (McKissic), to drafting Cook and talking specifically about his ability as a receiver to trading for Hines. But they have never truly committed to it as part of their offense. Check downs are not actually Josh's strongest suit. His ball placement is better 25 yards downfield than it is sometimes on those check down routes. Joe Brady used the back a lot both at LSU and at Carolina, and showed signs of committing to it last year when he took over so maybe finally they will be in sync - and if Cook can clean up the concentration drops in the redzone they could be onto something. But that will be after at least 5 years of trying! The other area where I have always felt they were muddled in their thinking is the type of oline they wanted and tried to build. They veered from big physical run graders, to athletic guys who can move laterally, and ended up with a cobbled together mess for about 3 seasons. That can only be a disconnect Beane and the coaching staff as to scheme and style. I think they have consistently wanted to build a zone run game but that is really hard with a Quarterback who wants to be in the gun as much as Josh. I dunno, just feel like Daboll and Dorsey were both culpable for trying to force something that wasn't working and McDermott and Beane were ultimately culpable for not setting a clearer direction of travel.

It hurts their cap in 2024 without really doing anything to improve it in 2025. If this was a take the pain in 2024 because it helps us next year idea, fine. But it doesn't.

And if Knox hadn't missed a third of the year with wrist surgery? Honestly the people using 2023 as proof that they were "right" on Dawson Knox are premature in the extreme.

I thought Baker was better than the Browns too, but in the same NFC South the year before he lost the starting job with the Panthers. His stock was at an all time low last offseason. I'm happy for him he had the year he did, I've always thought Baker was a decent QB. But still on paper that division was wide open for the Saints to win last year and I'd have made the same decision they did in terms of going for it. They lost out on H2Hs with the Buccs. I'd go again this year because the Buccs will likely lose some pieces too and then at that point if you are not in position I'd tear down next spring.

White doesn't have the skillset to play strong safety and play in the box but he has the skillset to play free safety and indeed coming out a few very respected evaluators thought that would be his position in the NFL. If one of our corners ends up playing safety in 2024 it will be Tre White. Elam is a total non-starter. Safety accentuates the things he does badly at corner and minimises the things he does well. So he'd be a disaster there. Benford is a young, ascending corner so that is absolutely a guy you don't move and Douglas is too much of a gambler to play safety where you need to have a bit more caution in your mindset of when to attack and when to read and react. I am not saying it WILL happen, but I do think Tre could play Micah's role. And if the Bills bring him back (interestingly Joe B's roster primer live stream on Friday evening on The Athletic he doubled down on the theory he and I share about what the best solution is on White's contract... and the fact he isn't going to be in a position to pass a medical before his bonus becomes due makes it more likely) I can see them potentially trying it. It might save them FA dollars on a safety.

They didn't sign Jones they drafted him.

Meh. I think the Saints did the right thing. They kicked the can relentlessly to load up for a last go with Drew Brees and Sean Payton and but for the worst non-call of all time that might have worked out. It didn't. They have prolonged it by continuing to try and win post Brees in comparison to New England who that first year post Brady had a "take our medicine" year and then rebounded when Mac was a rookie, spent a bit in FA, put some pieces around him and won 10 games and made the playoffs - even though that relative success couldn't be sustained (mainly because they have drafted so poorly). But I sort of defend the Saints in doing that because they were in a division that, especially this year, looked very winnable. I still think the division is attainable for them with a good season and they still have some talented players so I'd run it back once more. But if they fail to make the post season again then next spring is a take your medicine season and you move on from Lattimore, Kamara, Ramcyzk, Jordan etc and it probably means the team you field in 2025 is going to be in contention for the #1 pick. Which just so happens to coincide with the point at which you can move on from Derek Carr and pick your QB of the future in the 2026 draft. It's likely your 2026 team will still suck a bit because you will be paying money to people who no longer play for you but as we have seen with Cincinnati and to a lesser extent Jacksonville in recent years the "suck, get your QB, suck again and load up" model is one that can pay some dividends. I understand those who would not have done the Carr thing and would have started taking their medicine already. But the NFL is an entertainment product. You have to keep the fans coming and when you have a shot to win and make the playoffs you should try and win. It would have been different if they were in a division with the Eagles or the Cowboys... but Brady had gone, there was no super team in the NFC South and nobody expected Baker to bounce back as he did. So I think trying to win was the right move.

I have said that for me it depends on where they really feel Stef is at. If they think he is truly on the downslope I'd be willing to commit $5-7m AAV for 2 year (maybe with a void year to spread some cash out). If they think Stef is still elite I'd pass on a mid range vet and just draft two from this clsss.

It is tight. I did my workings out in another thread recently and got to about $20m, but that was on the assumed $242m cap and included cutting Von (June 1) and Mitch Morse. I can now see a route to keeping Mitch and either a restructure adding a void year or even possibly a paycut (I think Mitch will only carry on playing in Buffalo, if it isn't here I guess he retires so maybe he'd be willing to take a bit less than the $6.8m base salary he is due i.e. the bit of the contract that isn't guaranteed). So on the $255m cap.... I think you can do it. But it doesn't leave a lot of space for signings and aside from a 1T and a safety where I think they will need to bring in at least starting calibre players (or retain Jones at 1T) they will need to sign a handful of other vet minimum types to provide some depth competition going into camp.

Fair.

Yea I have already corrected that. I agree in specific terms, you are right. But everything they did in terms of building picks for 2018 was about getting their Quarterback. So you are right they didn't use that actual pick but I still think at the point they traded back in 2017 it was about what they needed to get their guy (which turned out to be Josh).

Nah that was Leonard Johnson. Wright was here the same year but was mainly a backup. He played a bit outside when EJ missed some games. He might have played some nickel too.

Good point.

Hmm. Good call on Adams. Think they did.

Clowney maybe? I think Clowney and Frank Clark were the same year. Can't recall one since.

The Dolphins will not win the AFC East unless Josh Allen misses significant time. They are not that good and they fold like a pack of cards when the going gets tough. They are more likely to finish under .500 in 2024 than to win the division IMO.