GunnerBill

I hadn't got to the tape of the safeties at that point. My first mock is more about playing out team needs and finding prospects that fit than it is an evaluation of every player within it.

Already used it on Winfield.

Disagree. Their first round picks have generally been traits guys more than production.

Well given he didn't do well in drills and now isn't a 2nd round pick (by Charlie's calculations) if they wanted to pick him at #100 I wouldn't hate it haha.

Very fair. But I do think the changed landscape was a factor. It is likely getting harder not easier for 'Bama from here. And at 62 maybe he is up for that fight. At 72, less so.

Yes he wants players to get paid. But not in a way that shakes up the status quo. I don't blame him for that. He is an old dude now. I think 2023 was one of his best coaching jobs. To get that 'Bama team to the final 4 and to within a play of beating the eventual champs was a hell of a job. With any other coach that was a borderline top 10 team. But there is no doubt in my mind that NIL and the transfer portal were factors in his decision. Nick spent 15 years at the top. He had a dynasty that likely never gets matched. But like it or not you can't just out recruit and outcoach folks now. That isn't the game anymore. And Saban decided the landscape that left wasn't for him.

I don't like Kinchens tape either. He is my SF5 at the moment. I know a lot have him higher but he isn't for me.

No player dominates every game. That isn't the NFL. You can't cherry pick the games you like and the ones you don't. His playoff numbers are solid. He has played well in the post season for the Bills. End of story. I will tell you when he hasn't played well. I am not disingenuously spouting shite here. When he underperforms as he did against KC this year I will say it. Yea. It isn't true.

I mean I agree all that is relevant. But nobody has bitched about NIL and the transfer portal more than Nick. Not without cause I might add. He is the greatest college coach of all time IMO, and I have no college rooting interest so there is no subjectivity here - but I do think he just concluded he didn't want to compete in this new world.

I like Cowling. I tend to have a lower ceiling for slots but I like him. 3rd round grade for me. Williams..... I was excited to see in the Shrine Game.... but he was really disappointing and I have gone back to his tape since and I do not see it at all. Doesn't run proper routes. Don't see a ton of separation. I think he will catch on somewhere and he will have a couple of 200-300 yars seasons in the NFL. But not sure he will be a lot better than that.

1. I didn't disagree with the post I was replying to. That I disagreed with other posts in other threads isn't relevant here. 2. The 13 seconds game for a start. He was our best defender by a mile that day. But you disagree. It is fine. 2 sacks, 5 TFL, 8 QB hits, 9 pressures and a pass defensed in 10 playoff games are good numbers for a defensive tackle. Just for comparison.... took Chris Jones 9 playoff starts to log a single TFL and 12 to log a sack. I am not saying Ed Oliver > Chris Jones. I am saying you need to have a proper perspective on his numbers. 3. Fair enough. But don't accuse me of letting Beane off for the lack of elite playmakers through the draft. I have made that point for multiple years.

I can see it. I don't like it particularly but he is the one non-WR who is a realistic a possibility to be there in and around the range of where we pick who I could imagine us picking. Edit: I typed non QB originally. Obviously I meant non WR d'oh!

From Michigan but played his college ball at Missouri, yes. I definitely agree if Latu (UCLA) is on the board you pick him. He is almost certainly the BPA at that spot. As discussed above I'd be more wary on Chop Robinson (Penn St) but I can imagine the Bills loving him.

Yep. Agree totally with this. He did, at the Senior Bowl, show more explosion than you saw on tape but then his run at the Combine was disappointing. I think he is exactly as you say in a 4-3 - just a bigger end who plays the run and bull rushes. To me his best fit is as a 5 tech in a 3-4 but I think someone will convince themselves that he can be a speed rusher outside, particularly from a two point stance as an 3-4 outside backer. I hope that someone isn't the Bills.

I don't know. Nor do I know if McDermott does that.

I don't think he was suggesting you were arguing to run it back. He was directing that at the Bills. He was their 5th choice safety in 2023. Cam Lewis was out there ahead of him. I agree he wasn't very good pre-Cincinnati and while I am relieved, happy and respectful of his comeback he isn't a guy I'd count on.

1. I didn't disagree emoji the post I responded to. I have told you before I don't see you name and instantly click disagree because you are negative. I only click disagree when I genuinely disagree on your takes. 2. The only guy I strongly disagree on is Ed Oliver. I know you don't agree because I saw you argue it elsewhere so no need to rehearse it here, but Ed's playoff numbers are solid. He didn't play well against KC this year, no argument there. But Ed has stood up in the playoffs as a rule. The other person you can make an argument for is Dawson Knox. 39 targets, 28 catches, 19 first downs and 6 touchdowns in 10 games. Neither of them have had a "Gabe Davis vs KC" type single game but both have been consistently good for the Bills in the playoffs. 3. I think generally I have been saying "Beane needs to draft more difference makers" since before you were on this forum. He is good compared to his peers at finding NFL starters in the draft. He is less good at finding the elite level difference makers. When Taron Johnson was voted 2nd team all pro this year he was the first Brandon Beane draft pick not name Josh Allen to make an all pro team. That is a problem. 4. I at no point have sought to excuse Beane from culpability for our cap situation and my posts are very clear on that (although I wouldn't describe it as a mess necessarily, think that overplays it... but we definitely have a cap crunch that is in part of his own making). All I did was add the context of around VOID YEARS which was, after all, what this thread is actually about.

Yes.

I wasn't seeking to disagree with what you said. Just to add additional context. While Beane is accountable for where we are cap wise he did just get plain unlucky having to extend Josh Allen in the middle of the restricted cap era and that has exacerbated some of the problems. It isn't an explanation for all of it, but when talking about why we are where we are cap wise it is a part of the picture that shouldn't be overlooked.

Every other Head Coach at some point has said 31 teams end the season disappointed. It is an ultimate NFL cliche.

No I'd be leery too. I'm not saying he is what I'd do - he doesn't use his hands well enough for me and people who have engaged with me for years on this stuff know I really value hands for pass rushers. But I can imagine the Bills loving him. He feels like their type to me. They love these athletic freaks and while he is slightly undersized he is still big enough I think - and we know from Ed Oliver they are willing to overlook size for explosiveness. He is astronomically high ceiling even if I think his floor is pretty low.

While that is true the 3rd round is also a place where you still don't reach down a tier to take a position you need. Obviously for this exercise we are all using the simulator's draftboard as if it were our own so to play that out in round one I never reach beyond the top 5 players on their board. Round 2 not beyond the top 8 and rounds 3 and 4 not beyond the top 10. After that I give myself a little more leeway because that is realistic. Once you get to rounds 5 through 7 teams are looking at their rosters and saying "where might these guys have the best chance to stick." But earlier reaching through tiers is a no-no. So you have to either take trades and move back, trade UP or sometimes take a position that isn't necessarily a need. I say all that as someone who also does not want yet ANOTHER day 2 pick on a running back. When you have an established starter at the spot that should be a no-no too. I normally try and do a 4 round mock in the final day or two of the run up where I use the simulator but use my own board and mark guys off in the background as it goes.

I don't see them cutting Gilliam AND Neal. That would mean losing their three best special teamers in one fell swoop and I don't think they are going to do that. I know fans disregard special teams but NFL teams don't. Matakevich is gone and I'm not expecting him back, the question is can they afford both Gilliam and Neal. I suspect not. But their gunner play took a noticeable drop off last year with no Taiwan Jones so that possibly makes Neal even more important. On the other hand Reggie Gilliam is kind of three players in one - core special teamer (particularly on punt team where he plays wing protector), fullback when they use one and emergency tight end. In the middle of last year they had got away from him totally on offense and I'd have said that made him more expendable but then Brady re-integrated him a bit. I don't know. I don't expect both back, but I think one of them will be. I also still think a pay cut is more likely than an outright cut with Tre White. My reasons are set out extensively elsewhere on the forum. Otherwise I think broadly you have players in the right categories.

I don't think DT is too bad depth wise and in any event the only guys you'd spend a first on are Newton and Murphy who are 3Techs that I don't think you are drafting that high to play 30-40% of the snaps behind and occasionally next to (on pure passing downs) Ed Oliver. Edge is worse. The class is not deep at all. But at the same time unless one of the top 3 guys drops to them at #28 (in which case they should pick them because they will almost certainly be the BPA) then I don't think there is a guy likely to make sense. Although as I've said before I imagine the Bills liking Chop Robinson. He just strikes me as their type. Athletic freak, 9.68 RAS....

I mean he also said he expects to win a Superbowl. So you have to consider what he said in the round.