GunnerBill

Even if you accept that as totally indicative all it says is he basically only does as well as his talent. I think Cincy are poorly coached on D most times I watch them and have done for a number of years.

Meh. I put that down to simple randomness. I don't think he suddenly remembers how to coach in January.

Meh. I think he is super overrated. Six seasons as DC in Cincy only one year in those six have they been top half of the league in either yards or points (2021 when they were top half for both). They have been bottom 7 in yards four times in six seasons. He had a truly great playoff adjustment at half time of that AFCCG against Kansas City going to the 3 man rush and intermediate flood concept and he totally befuddled Mahomes. That was some great coordinating. But people stick on that moment when the reality is most of his time there the defense has been poorly coached. They have lost some talent the last two seasons with Reader and the two safeties moving on But he still has Hendrikson and Hubbard and Hill and Hilton and Wilson... it's enough talent to make the defensive performance really disappointing. In a lot of ways Chicago is the best job open. Until you remember they are in a division with three of the best four teams in the conference.

This is an excellent breakdown. And that sideline play towards the end is yet another example of what I am talking about in terms of him playing to contact on the outside. When people said he doesn't seaparate we got told we were obsessed with 40 time. And sure, a handful were, I never was. I was talking about this stuff before the draft. Again in May. And again in October.

There were four downfield throws to him on the outside yesterday which he should have caught. If he gets 2/4 or 3/4 fine, but he came up with zero. And the reason is something that I pointed out on his film prior to the draft. When he is outside and he has a contested release he has a strong tendency to play to contact. He goes and feels for the DB and takes his positioning on the field off of that. This results in him losing leverage and essentially being "reactive" in the down rather than proactive and dictating to the DB. It's why I liked him more as a big slot. Because when he gets free releases - as you do much more in the slot - he dictates - he decides where he is going gets to his landmarks and boxes out any defenders that come into his space out. He does not do that outside, he plays to contact. @BADOLBILZ and I talked about it on here mid season and he speculated it could be a hangover from his basketball background. I know zero about basketball so I will take his word for it, but it makes sense if it's a learned habit. It is why so often outside it looks like he has a defender draped on him. He doesn't separate because he almost isn't trying to separate. He is trying to feel the defender and play off him. I talked to another poster after the draft about it too but he is one of the only shows up after losses guys and I can't remember his handle. It is something that is coachable. It can improve. But it is a major factor in his lack of separation and so it needs to improve fast if he is going to develop into anything more than a complimentary piece in an offense. I am still where I was pre-draft with him. If you are drafting him to replace and upgrade on Gabe Davis, I'm in. If you are drafting him to be a #1 type outside receiver, I'm out. Which means whenever this season comes to an end, under confetti or otherwise, the Bills have to work out what to do with Amari Cooper and at that #1 outside spot. Because "Keon will develop into that in year 2" is going to be a tremendously hard sell to some of us. When you add the struggles in the pass game to two penalties for false start / illegal formations.... it was a very rough day for Keon. The success they had with him pre-injury was using him a bit inside or in tight splits and getting him in the middle of the field for catch and runs. That is what I hope they get back to in the playoffs. Forcing balls to him on the boundary 4 or 5 times a game is a recipe for failure.

And that might have been the dumbest one of the year. After that I think two INTs bounced off receivers hands one was an arm punt... I don't remember any other "WTF Josh?" moments other than the opening day fumble which was totally on him. I think there was a bad read on a pick v Indy but the sort of thing every QB has from time to time. Honestly this may be reaching but it looked like a guy playing with a clear mind compared to all the dumb mistakes late 23 and early 24 when he had off the field stuff going on.

That's always been my thing. Not sure Josh is suited to a paint by numbers offense. But I don't think it is as big of a transition from what he has run well with Brady as it was from what he ran well with Daboll and early in the Dorsey reign. Add to that I don't think McDaniel is quite the hard ass about the scheme that his mentor Kyle Shanahan is. Watching some of the things he has let Tyler Huntley do in order to just move the ball in Tua's absences I think he might be more willing to lean into a Josh centric version of the Shanny stretch-zone WCO than just implanting his system lock stock and barrel. I think McDaniel is the best creative mind off that tree. Even more so than McVay. You have your LaFleurs and your Slowick and even O'Connell and the scheme is the scheme. I see McDaniel bring more of his own wrinkles to it. I think he is a very smart OC and so I'd be willing to take the risk that it doesn't mesh with Josh because if it does... I think you are making magic. So in answer to the OP's question - YES. Definitely Grier. McDaniel I think is over his skies as a Head Coach but he is smart. Good offensive brain, done a good job with Tua. I think he is a top 5 OC masquerading as a HC and you will always have a pretty decent floor with that combination. Grier sucks. All those picks he had at the start of this rebuild and his best three players are old, expensive vets: Hill, Armsted and Ramsey. Shambolic.

Yea he is still flawed. But he isn't a bust. Which he looked in New York and Carolina. Darnold was the one who was a backup in San Fran. Baker never was. He went Cleveland, Carolina (I think it is a rule everyone has to spend 3 games as QB of the Panthers) and then the Rams for a cup of coffee before signing in Tampa. He has just had a career year. Likely he will not match it again, but he is who he has always been to me. A good QB who with pieces around him can win you 9,10,11 games and make the playoffs.

I am not saying he will get fired. I don't expect him to. I am saying if there is a surprise team that is where I am looking. Chris Grier (GM) is very tight with the owner and will happily throw the coach under the bus to save his own skin. Personally I think the roster is old, expensive, and average.

I never thought Mayfield was a bust. I think, and always thought, the Browns made a mistake moving off him. Baker can play. He isn't a superstar but he is a good starting Quarterback. I have to say I did think Darnold was a bust. Not necessarily just after the Jets but after a promising start when he flamed out with Carolina I thought that was him done. Huge credit to him. He got his chance this year and he seized it.

He did, 70% v Pitt and 80% vs KC. Highly unusual for the Bills and I definitely don't see them asking Von to go from where he has been to that and it wouldn't be smart to do so.

Apparently Monday has always been a 4 vs 5 matchup since they introduced it. So that is either Chargers @ Texans OR Vikes/Lions @ Rams. I believe the thinking is it helps logistical planning for divisional weekend. If both the 2 and the 3 have won at the weekend then the winner of 4/5 can only go to the #1 seed. If either 2 or 3 have lost then the winner of 4/5 can only go to whichever one of the 2/3 has won. If both the 2 and 3 have lost then the 6 can only go to the 4/5. I would expect that to remain the approach. Packers @ Eagles and Steelers @ Ravens are the two prime time games, lock that in. Which leaves the remaining 4/5 game, the Broncos @ Bills and the Commanders @ Buccs as the three remaining.

Yes. But the Bills are not the Rams. We rotate linemen more than they do. I still think Groot and Ed will play the most. I'd put them around 70/75%. If Von is in that 55-60% range then it means he has gone from situational rusher only to starter. I think that is the realistic progression in usage.

Not really the thread to go into detail but I don't think it's an easy game. I think they have a good defense and Nix is playing pretty well. I'm not sure I think McDermott got outcoached as a head coach last year by Peyton but he did get outcoordinated as the DC. He is no longer in that role, but our defense under Babich does really worry me. If he comes out heavy blitzing and letting Nix win with his brain and recognition skills we could be in trouble. Gotta throw different coverage looks at him and keep him guessing. I take the Bills to win but a one score game wouldn't shock me.

He got six. That was my metric for having some impact. So sure, I was wrong. I'm not sure about "wildly outplayed" but he did have some impact. I'm not sure how much we take from another slightly fortuitous sack in a meaningless week 17 game, but he did beat his man around the edge and create a pressure and so fair's fair. He met the mark I gave him very little chance of making. That said, I still don't think he has really had a major impact on the season. Of his six sacks, week 1 v Arizona and the one vs Kansas City came at critical moments. Otherwise it is one in a meaningless game and three in blowouts, but I accept I said he wouldn't get six and he did. Congratulations to Von. I'm kind of happy he earned his incentive because despite me not being mad keen on having him on the roster the pay cut he took with a chance to earn some back was magnanimous of him and a team first move. I said in the week I thought given that it would be unfair for the Bills to sit him totally today and I'm glad they didn't. For me to completely eat my words on Von he will need to make some impact in the post season, if he does that, all the struggles, and the disappearing acts are forgiven. There is no WAY Von plays 70%. Before today Groot was at 70%. That is our top usage for a DL. Now might he get first dips opposite Groot and be around AJE's regular season mark of 57/58%? Sure. But that is the ceiling.

Definitely Daboll and Pedersen. Looks like Cowboys might try and extend McCarthy. Pierce is a maybe. If there is a surprise out there.... watch McDaniel if Miami loses to the Jets tonight. Think everyone will stay in Tennessee. In Indy the GM is gonna carry the can but I expect Steichen to hang on.

Ah yea. Ignore me. Long day. LAC @ KC would be next round. I think they beat Houston.

I think they want Vrabel and know if they don't move now he will be gone.

If LAC win they go to KC, right? That is my ideal non Bills combo: LAC @ KC and Pitt @ Baltimore

It's Denver. KC can't be assed.

Yes

I actually like Eagle and Arch as announcers.

Okay. Scrap the release Mitch and promote Mike White to #2 plan. He sucks.

Awful. He looks for the contact. Rather than space. It's baffling.

I don't think that one was catachable but Keon did it AGAIN! 4 times today. Stop looking for the defender. Focus on getting where you need to be on the field!!!