GunnerBill

Thank you.

Mitchell's day is the most confusing to me. I'd have sworn blind he was 6'4" but ran a 4.5. 6'2" and runs a 4.3. Call me confused.

That wasn't true last year. We saw a LOT of man.

Id love to draft Joe. He is the poundland Josh Allen. Like the Ravens model where Huntley is the poundland Lamar.

He has had a bad day.

Agree on Mitchell. I remain a McConkey sceptic.

It would be a tad high. If they haven't taken a WR round 1 though they might need a small reach. I never had any doubt he was a sub 4.4 guy. The evidence was there IMO. That time for Mitchell is super impressive. With his jumps as well Legette's RAS is gonna come out pretty sweet I reckon.

As of right now 20.

He reminds me so much of a young Stef on tape. He just always seems to separate. He isn't super fast but he understands the nuances of route running and coverage and he gets open. Agree though the drops are concerning. I have a high 3 on him.

I don't get very wrapped up in the kind of "player X is an alpha" type stuff. I am not sure it really amounts to anything but others may feel differently about that. Agree he is going to give you better use of his body on slants and other quick in breaking routes. He will body defenders out better than Gabe but you are running the same route you ran with Gabe to do that. He will just do it better. I do think Coleman would be an upgrade. He just wouldn't be a change of approach IMO. Yea don't disagree with any of that. Is he the type of #1 receiver you want for Josh Allen and this offense though? That is where I still need persuading.

Agree he need to run straight downhill.

RapSheet just confirming we have met with Gore Jnr. Wouldn't hate him late day 3 or priority UDFA. Wouldn't be the first guy Beane and McD have drafted cos they liked the dad....

Yea I have a high 2 on Keon, I had a mid 3 on Gabe so I do think he is clearly better but I think you are drafting the same style of player. Wouldn't be my ideal outcome.

Taiwan > Cam and not even close. Cam loses contain way too often as a gunner.

My thing with Keon is I think you are drafting Gabe Davis again. He is ptobably a better version if Gabe Davis but that is the style of receiver you are getting. A guy who really is going to be 80% downfield routes, who isn't a great separator and who isn't as good as you want him to be in terms of contested catch %. I think he has better hands than Gabe, uses his body a bit better and I think he will run a bit faster (the Bills you will recall were quite pleased Gabe timed slightly slower than expected at mid 4.5s). I expect Keon to be under 4.50 but let's see. High 4.4s. So he likely is an upgrade on Davis but I think he is the same style of receiver again. I think we need a bit more suddeness and separation.

It would not be a throw something at the tv pick for me but it would be a sharp intake of breath cos it is a roll of the dice. It just so happens than Chop is #28 on my big board right now though and if the NFL draft followed exactly my grading system (I promise you it won't) and the top 27 all went and the Bills picked him I would understand it. As I keep saying it is the one realistic non-receiver pick that I can see them making at that spot.

Mitchell is the one that surprises me a bit. I knew Thomas wasn't 6'4" just looking at him, likewise with Franklin and 6'3". Worthy is my height. But Mitchell on his film looks legit big. Surprised he came in shorter than Thomas. Guys are always claiming extra inches in my experience.....

Some truth to that and the ceiling is sky high. But there is a LOT to teach. So the floor is also very low.

I think he has elite get off, the best natural bend round the edge in the class and a better bull rush than you expect to see given he is slightly undersized. He has what I will politely call a "muscular backside" and huge thighs and he generates his power through his lower body so when he wins with that explosive first step he can continue the drive that stops tackles getting back into the down despite not having ideal length. The negatives..... the production doesn't match the traits and that is a concern. We have been here before with Jayson Oweh out of Penn State and while I think Chop is just all around a better prospect the story on Oweh is a production switch wasn't suddenly flipped when he reached the league. My view on why the production isn't there is that he is technically unrefined. If his sheer athleticism doesn't beat you he doesn't have a counter. He has some lane discipline issues to tidy up in the run game but I think that can come with NFL coaching. The thing that drops him out of first round grade territory on my board is the hand usage. That has always been big for me for pass rushers. Chop needs to get his hands up higher in his rush and be more decisive and violent with them.

I think Newton is the best DT in the draft but I love Murphy too. The issue with both is they are 3Ts. If you draft either of them how do you get them on the field? They play the same position as Ed Oliver. Ed played 70% of snaps last year. Even if you are in the camp that says that was too many and it needs to tick down he isn't going below 65%. So how much are you getting Murphy out there for? I love the player. Not sure I see the fit here.

Except he isn't. There is no way to realise that level of Tre saving unless he can pass a medical in the next 10 days.

So here is where I am.... once you get out of the top 10 I am not sure how many receiver landing spots there are. Vikings at 11? Obviously not. Jefferson and Addison. Broncos at 12? Put the house on a QB. Vegas at 13? Too many other needs and have Devonte. Saints at 14? Too many other needs. Colts at 15? Possible. But Pittman on the tag lessens the chance. Seattle at 16? No chance. DK, Lockett and JSN. Jacksonville at 17? Yes. First receiver spot outside the top 10 for me. Cincy at 18? Not with Higgins tagged, no. LA at 19? Nope. Kupp and Nacua. Steelers at 20? Nope. Pickens and Johnson. Dolphins at 21? Nope. Waddle and Hill. Eagles at 22? Very outside chance if they are trading AJ Brown. Otherwise, no. Texans at 23? Possible. Think they more likely go vet route though and use this pick on defense. Cowboys at 24? Yes. They could go OL but I think they are in the WR market. Pack at 25? Nope. They have a nice young bunch. Tampa at 26? Possible if Evans walks. No chance if he doesn't. Cardinals at 27? Almost certainly taken a WR in the top 10 so no. It is definite the top 3 are gone. The likelihood is Thomas is also gone. I think one more guy could be too. But I reckon 6 in the first (which is the all time record) is about where it will land. What the Bills have to be wary of is a team (Kansas City from #32 or Carolina from #33) coming up and jumping them for that 5th or 6th guy.

Agree. I have spoken in the last week to respected evaluators in the twittersphere, one or two lesser known talky heady types, and two guys who have scouted in the league (one who still does). Of the 8 opinions I have sought on this class all but one had the consensus top three as the consensus top 3 (and the outlier had Brian Thomas #3 and Odunze #4). Here are the names I have heard as the "next guy" after the top 3: Brian Thomas Jnr x3 (including the one who has him 3rd) Keon Coleman x2 Adonai Mitchell x1 Xavier Worthy x1 Troy Franklin x1 I was trying to find someone else who, like me, has Xavier Legette as their #4. I was unsuccessful. I found one guy who had him #5 and two who had him #6 (although also one guy who had him #12). Basically it appears to me that it will be the top 3. Then either Thomas or Coleman will be the 4th guy. But after that.... all bets are off. The order is all over the place.

In 2022 they committed to him as a starter and brought no serious competition in for him. I agree he is the perfect 6th lineman because he can play either guard spot, center or right tackle in a pinch. My issue isn't with them signing him. It was with them handing him the right guard spot. Cybo, despite definitely struggling a tad the second half of his rookie year was a major upgrade.

Fair (although I don't really include Kincaid last year was a bit different... bad class so higher floor safer guys went earlier). But Josh, Elam, Tremaine, even to an extent Ed (if you are only looking at sack production) were all traits over college production. And Chop doesn't have no production. It is not like when Jayson Oweh came out of the same school with zero sacks his final year. I am not advocating for Chop btw. I am sceptical but I see the traits and I could see the Bills liking them enough to forgive the fact his production has not been stellar.