GunnerBill

Agree except he doesn't do the talent evaluation. Will McClay does that and is one of the best in the business. They pay him more than some GMs get to stay without the title. The bits Jerry controls, hiring coaches and the strategy for extending contracts and paying guys is where they have had issues.

If they lose Sunday and to the Bills they are done. I imagine they try and push Purdy out there fully healthy or not and if they go 0-2 they then shut him and the season down and try and lose out.

No, I don't. He gets major kudos for drafting Josh Allen. To win a Superbowl, he has to build around him. My question here is really how well we have done that.

Is a really good slot receiver. Got one of those already. I would take Brandon Aiyuk over any slot receiver. I think a healthy Chris Olave on a team with a good QB I'd do the same. As we saw early in the season with the Bills it doesn't matter how good you are between the numbers, if you can't threaten teams down the field on the outside you are too easy to defend.

It's a point I've raised with @JGMcD2 in previous years. I think the work is excellent and the methodology decent but I do think it possibly undervalues that difference between star / elite level guy and good productive starter. But while the methodology might be imperfect it is better than gut feel and I think when you look at the top 10/12 it broadly feels right in terms of what the eye test tells you about teams who have drafted well in recent years. As for the Bills specifically Brandon Beane misses on fewer draft picks than almost any of his peers. He has some advantages in that regard we should say, a Head Coach with whom he is in total lock step, an owner who does not interfere and trusts him to do his job and not a ton of scheme change / turnover on either side of the ball (they have changed offensive scheme somewhat this year but it is basically the first time since 2018). That helps him score well in this analysis and so it should. @JGMcD2 - one request... can we see a cumulative ranking without 2018? My contention is Beane's two best picks - Allen and Taron - came in that class and I'd like to get a sense of how he has built around Josh since. But even the year by year breakdown feels right - 2020 and 2021 were okay drafts, not great, then the 2022 class bounced back into that top 6 or so.

And we basically swapped Tenuta for Ryan Van Demark who is our swing tackle. Both were cut at the end of camp their rookie years.... RVD came here initially to the PS and Tenuta signed for the Colts PS.

Agree. If they get in them please. They are awful. I don't think they will though. Could easily lose a couple of those games.

Agree. I don't think there will be a true gimme in the wildcard round but of the potential options my preference is: 1. Pittsburgh 2. Denver 3. Miami 4. Bengals 5. Chargers I think they are the only 5 teams I give a real chance of being in it. I still think Baltimore wins the North. If they end up in the WC they are my very least preferred.

The AFC North divisional games are never gimmes.

Oh I wouldn't replace him. I just don't know how you make that team better than the ceiling we have seen so far. I think he struggles as a leader and their defense year after year gets a new coordinator and doesn't improve.

I don't think he is a particularly good head coach personally, but he is a great offensive mind and I think Tua's success is pretty dependent on him and his scheme. So I agree they'd be really silly to fire him on the basis of a season where Tua missed a chunk of games in the softer part of their schedule. But I'm not sure I see a great route to the Dolphins getting better any time soon because the salary cap is gonna bite again next spring.

Yea I think the same. I doubt it would be Curry if Brady leaves after this season. I think it'd be someone from outside.

I think Brady would have to get a job. But Mike McDaniel would be a really interesting OC option here if fired. And I agree about McD still liking that style of offense. That is what I heard from the two people I had links to inside the organisation. They are both no longer there, but both, independent of each other, said it is going to take a major collapse type scenario for McDermott to get fired. Terry loves Sean and Brandon and they totally have his trust.

So first of all, just to say I acknowledge and recognise the starting point from which you are coming at this which is just that you are not saying this offense is bad it doesn't meet your schematic preferences. I understand that. I have a stylistic aversion to heavy blitzing defenses, I have never liked them. But I recognise that done well - Brian Flores, Steve Spagnoulo - they can be really successful. They'll just never be my cup of tea or the way I'd call it if I was running a defense. I think the Brady / Daboll comparison on the way they are trying to create separation is interesting too. They are using different styles to do the same thing. To a certain extent I think you can throw the 4th and 2 from Sunday out. The Bills have basically admitted Spags won that rep coaching wise. The Bills expected man, saw man, and then got zone and it was just Josh Allen making a superman play that made it work. The play was designed to get Shakir open and he is sufficiently past the line to be open, the Chiefs just had the right D called. But overall they do take different approaches to creating space. Daboll, as you say, was a master of spacing. And he used that to get his receivers into areas of the field where they had green grass around them to be open targets. Brady does a lot more of trying to put the defense in conflict. That tends to be why he has receivers closer to each other because he is trying to use natural leverage and rub routes to put defenders into a bind, conflict them as to their coverage responsibility and get separation for his receivers. The 3rd down play to Shakir earlier in the drive was a classic example of where they did exactly that on a key down. I'm not sure it is poor spacing so much as by design he wants his receivers close to each other to make defenders read and react and they have been pretty effective recently at getting guys open that way. It is a different strategy, and I might argue with our current pass catchers is an approach more suited to the talent. Dorsey was still trying to run the Daboll philosophy but with a declining Diggs, no Brown or Sanders and no Beasley to just sit in those zones. I have always felt that the Brady O has a lower ceiling than the Daboll O. That is still my niggling doubt despite the decent upward curve we are on. But I think the personnel kind of required them to move away from some of those core Dabes concepts. It needed a different way of getting guys open.

What will happen is it will be a really good football game, between two really good teams, it will be close and come down to the last 2 minutes or so. One team or other will make a play or not make a play and that will decide the outcome. 2021 playoffs - 13 seconds 2022 reg season - Taron pick on final drive 2023 reg season - Toney's toe 2023 playoffs - Josh just misses Shakir in the endzone 2024 reg season - Josh's superman run It is how these games have gone now 5 times in a row. Just gotta hope that finally, in January, we come out on the right end of one.

Offense: 1. Daboll 2. Brady 3. Dorsey 4. Dennison Defense: 1. Frazier 2. Babich 3. McDermott

Don't think so. I mean I'd never say never if Josh lobbies for him. But I think they'd go another route.

It has been the case since 2020. The Bills have been a top 5 team in terms of 4th down aggression by the numbers since Josh broke out basically.

I mean most sensible sports are one game eliminations. Just your funny 'merican sports that normally are different.

Yea I agree. As long as the let them play is broadly consistent (and I think it was) I prefer it that way.

My personal take on the 1st down runs was they were precisely to remain on schedule. I'm not saying it worked as the Bills would have hoped.... I'm sure they would have liked to be getting 3-4 yards rather than 1-2 on those runs but it felt like "I am not going to let the Chiefs force negative plays get me into 2nd and 3rd and 10 plus when you get the craziest blitzes in Spags playbook." I don't think it was about trying to set stuff up later or wear the defense out or any of those theories. I think it was simply a means of trying to avoid negative plays. I think there was a confidence that the Chiefs secondary was vulnerable especially with McDuffie not in top form and Watson injured and there would be plays to be made on 3rd down as long as we were not "behind the sticks". The thing that particularly makes me think that is the obvious solution to getting stoned running up the middle is tosses and sweeps and run plays to attack the edges. While Cook's first TD was an edge run the next drive they ran a toss where he should have been tackled in the backfield for a loss of about 5 yards and instead scampered forward, kept his balance and turned it into a short gain. After that - no more tosses - which suggests the risk of being 2nd and 15 or someone was not one Brady was willing to take. They only had 3 negative plays on the day and all were for -1. Two on first down and one on second down so in that sense I think it worked, but they would have been hoping to be more effective that the 1-2 yard average on first down, no doubt. They need to look at how we crank some more yards out of 1st down (both run and pass actually) if we meet them again in January. But I think stopping the Chiefs defense from creating negative plays at the same time has to be part of that equation too.

Hahahaha. I feel insulted! Although Lidl are charging £13 for a turkey crown which is nuts.

Yea I normally cook during the Detroit game and eat during the Dallas game. Will be swapping that around this year. Late dinner I think 😆

The main person who didn't and still doesn't realise that is Aaron Rodgers.

Luck plays a bigger part in sport than most want to admit.