GunnerBill

Agreed.

I think that plan will fail. I just don't think he has the skillset to do it.

He was taken in the third. But yes. I think the unusual skillset and Arkansas' inability to always use it effectively played in.

I'd have gone up for BTJ. I am on record with that. I'd have gone up for Addison the year before too.

I said it up thread, but appreciate that it is a lot to wade through.... part of it is scheme fit. I think he has to play in a 4 man front that use bigger ends at the 5 and the 7. I think right now there are more 3-4 teams given the proliferation of Fangio copycat defenses knocking about and even among the 4-3s there are some teams - like Houston and Cleveland that run a lot more wide 9 concept stuff where you want your ends to be fast and bendy. In fact rather than me repeating it I've found the link to the earlier post:

Yea basically this. I don't have a view on Prather actually I haven't watched any of him. I will at some point over the summer try and find some tape but as of now, no view. But I do think there is a gap between the top 2 who we would have had to trade up slightly for cost us one of the 5ths and Lundt and the guys on @JGMcD2's list below them. I think @BillsVet actually summed up my frustration with receiver quite well when he said it just feels like there are some positions where Beane is always worrying about the pipeline - DL, DB, LB, OL, even running back. But it just feels like he is content to go year to year at receiver making tactical adds like Samuel and Palmer in FA rather than being a bit more strategic. The frustration isn't just that he didn't take one this draft. It has been building for four years when he has always seemed to find a reason to prioritise something else over keeping that pipeline of weapons for Josh well stocked (do you stock a pipeline? mixed metaphor maybe.... but you get the point )

All of this kind of proves my point though, it comes down to what you prioritise. Would a developmental receiver, likely our WR5 in 2025, play fewer snaps as a rookie than Hancock if he wins that job off Cam Lewis and a TE3 who is a blocker? Yep. But is that what we are prioritising? Which guy has the easiest path to snaps in 2025? Why are we not looking at these rookies as potential four year investments? I'm really only talking about the trade up guys - Horton and Lambert - developmental speed receiver who can play outside and the Bills had for a 30 visit. To get either of them the trade up would have meant giving up one of the 5ths (either Hancock or Hawes) and Lundt to trade up. One way of looking at it is your way and saying who plays most snaps in 2025? My approach might be more if all six guys we are talking about here: Hancock, Hawes, Lundt, Strong, Horton and Lambert are starting level players by the end of their rookie contracts which ones cost the money to pay? It's the receivers, then Strong and Lundt (if he stays at tackle). So if I have a chance to take a shot on getting one of those at a discount rate who makes the most sense to get - it's the receivers. Add to that - how much better are the Bills if Hancock is 25% better as a DIME and DB utility piece than Cam? How much better are they if Hawes is on the field instead of Anderson? Whereas how much better are they if a Horton or Lambert does outplay expectations and by their second year are a legit piece of the offense? I think unquestionably the last of those makes the biggest % difference in the Bills as a team. I like Lundt and Strong and while I watched less of Hancock and very little of Hawes I understand the fit for them. In isolation they all make sense. It is the opportunity cost that makes less sense to me when you pass on a developmental guy who could potentially in future years be a receiver that makes plays for you. I think Beane takes the wrong message from Khalil Shakir. It shouldn't be "great he hit I don't need to worry about shooting for developmental receivers much for the next few years." It should, in my opinion, be "great, day 3 is a place where you find less well rounded receivers but guys with specific skillsets that you can then fuse together and make work with Josh Allen."

Nah. They love Ed. His reps have gone up the last two years. And while he didn't play well for probably 2/3s of the regular season last year he was one of our best players down the stretch and in the post season. I don't see the young guys eating into his reps at all.

I thought he was an ordinary prospect, I'm sorry to say. I like this year's first three picks a LOT better than I liked last year's. Elijah Moore would give you that, and if Shakir can stay healthy give you some snaps outside too. I like that idea more the more I think about him.

This is the point. It isn't this draft in isolation. It's longer term prioritisation.

It opens up cap in that year, yes. But he'd have to be more than slightly underperforming to make it worth taking on that level of dead cap for a $2.5m saving, however you spread it across years for cap purposes. He'd have to be washed or a locker room issue. And I just don't see it.

When instead it could go on your 3rd tight end, 10th OL or 7th DB...... That is the point here. Not that they should have forced a receiver pick early. But that when they get to the bit of the draft where they are attacking roster needs development receiver is always bottom of the list.

Yea it isn't an impossible contract to get out of in 2026, but it's the sort of thing you only do if you think a guy is not good enough to be on the field anymore (normally coming off a serious injury) OR is a major locker room headache. If you look at the three times Beane has done it in the last few years it has been for Von (washed after a serious injury), Tre (not the same guy after a serious injury) and Diggs (locker room headache). Even if Ed has another meandering first half of the year, like he did in 2024, I'm not sure that is enough to make absorbing the dead cap when for another $2.5m he could play for you.

If a player is washed, yep. But to take that hit on a guy who is still playing at a good level when for an extra $2.5m he could still be on your team, I don't see it. 2027 is the earliest Ed will be playing anywhere else.

He is good at the deep over routes, yep, where he can run across the field. That just suits him much more. He didn't play much from the slot in 2024, although I think is telling that his slot snaps steadily ticked uo all year and the 3 games where he had double figures in snaps from the slot came in the last 4 weeks of the season. The Bills definitely had it in their minds as the season went along. But he did make multiple of his big plays from tight splits. Even he was still the "inside" it was getting him a bit tighter and throwing him slants and and in breaking routes to get him the ball in traffic over the middle. That is still where he is at his best. He is still the guy who runs the gauntlet really well. He will make some plays on the outside on vertical routes where he can box a defender out and come down with a contested ball but that is a hard way to live consistently in the NFL. And his contested catch percentage wasn't that high. But ever vertical ball will be contested because he is a non-separator. He is still a basketball player who plays to contact off the defender rather than a guy with the nuance, burst and short area quickness to separate either early in routes or through his break at the top of them.