When this story came out and then the report was released, it seemed to me that she was lying. After more has come out about how badly botched the investigation was, I have questioned that view and realized I was wrong to assume she lied. I honestly don't know who to believe now. I'm not going to jump to another conclusion on this issue.
The paragraph I bolded is going to be the biggest he said/she said point of contention IMO. One of those facts you stated is incorrect though. The roommate did not post on Facebook about "what a bad thing he had just seen". Three days after the alleged incident he posted, "I feel the worst I almost felt in my life Smh #stupid." Now this could be in reference to the alleged incident, but it could also be referring to a blackout night at the bar for all we know.
I'm not sure what the level of doubt needs to be in a civil case, though I think it's lower which should help her. I think she'll easily win her case against FSU and the PD because of all the facts known about how the investigation was handled. If she can't get the roommate to testify/corroborate her story and she can't get a copy of the deleted video, how much of a chance do you think she'll stand of winning the suit against Jameis? In the absence of that evidence, will the jury assume that because the investigation was botched that he's guilty?