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Everything posted by Bocephuz
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Unforced errors.. bad throws/ How did the O Line do?/ What mistakes are on the O-Line.. what ones are not? I watched the NFL rewind all 22 and here is my unofficial count of how the O-Line did / How the QB did on every pass play (I may have missed a snap or two here or there. There also may be a few extra pass attempts that were cancelled due to penalites..but this should be 95% accurate) Sufficient protection means that TT had time to hit his drop and had at least a second to scan the field. DISCLAIMER (I am not a coach, I don't know the hot reads or route combinations called.. this is just my educated perception of what happened on each pass play) _______ ______________________ TOTAL PASS PLAYS: 36 LINE BREAKDOWNS: 7/36 or 19% In other words TT didn't really have a chance on 19% of his drop backs. Based on historical data the threshold for average O Line performance has been around a 20% breakdown rate.. so lets say the O Line was average against the Jets. SUFFICIENT PROTECTION: 29/36 or 81%. In other words TT had a relatively clean pocket 81% of the time. UNFORCED QB ERRORS: 4/36 or 11% . Based on my 2015/16 studies if the Bills' QBs commit 5 unforced QB errors or less during a game their odds of winning are solid. TT had 4 unforced errors by my count. Which is under the danger line. BOTTOM LINE CORDY GLENN – Cordy Glenn was not his old dominant self but he was ok. He gave up a pressure in Q1 and was rotated out for Dawkins several times. DION DAWKINS - was ok rotating in at LT for Glenn a few times. Did give up a pressure in Q1 but for a rookie debut coming off bench he did as well as could have been expected INCOGNITO SOLID – Richie was his usual stout self in pass protect. ERIC WOOD – up and down. He was generally solid. He did a good job picking up a stunt in q1 but on the other hand missed a stunt in Q2. JOHN MILLER SHAKY- Miller had a really rough day. Of the 7 O Line breakdowns he was responsible for 3. He and Wood did a good job picking up a stunt in q1.. however.. he was manhandled by Leonard Williams several times. Granted Williams is an elite DT .. but Miller was pretty much dominated. Q1 15:00 – Miller whiffs on 99 first play of game. Gives up pressure Q2- 6:34 – Miller manhandled by 92 again JORDAN MILLS – had a really nice day. Hopefully this is a sign of things to come. O LINE PASS BLOCK GRADES CORDY GLENN - B- DION DAWKINS – B- RICHIE INCOGNITO – B+ ERIC WOOD - B JOHN MILLER - D JORDAN MILLS - A TYROD GOALLINE ERRORS - Of the 4 Unforced Errors TT committed.. 2 of them came in the first quarter on back to back plays in the redzone. If the Bills punch it in here for 7 the Jets are likely demoralized and the route is on. These 2 back to back mistakes were the only real stains on an otherwise solid day from TT POOR THROWS Q1 9:06 - UNFORCED ERROR - TT telegraphs an out route to Clay on the goalline and the DE clearly sniffs it out.. stalls his rush and jumps up to bat the ball down. TT needs to learn to not stare down here. Q1 9:02 – UNFORCED ERROR - TT is late and behind to Clay on the goalline causing an INT. As the Gif shows.. Clay is open right over the middle when TT hits his drop. TT has a clean pocket and should have let it go right then.. but for some reason he drifts left and by the time he throws to Clay the safety comes up and smacks him in the back causing an INT TYROD POSITIVES - MIDDLE/TIGHT END - TT continued the trend of effectively using the middle of the field (carrying that over from the last few games of ’16). His footwork was also better for the most part (barring a few exceptions) and he was generally getting the ball out on time. With that being said..the Jets LBs and DBs really struggled covering the short middle area and he didn’t really have to fit many of these throws into tight windows. See example below.. Matthews is wide open here.. not exactly a high degree of difficulty here However.. still progress here with slants and crossing routes over the middle. The next step will be to see him complete some deep seam routes down the middle (none really attempted against Jets) MOBILITY - TT generally made sound decisions to tuck and run .. picking up a few key first downs. His play at the end of Q1 (shown below) where he escapes pressure and Houdinis a throw to Matthews for a first down was simply incredible. Not many QBs have the athleticism to pull that off. STANDING IN POCKET TAKING HIT AND DELIVERING - TT has been criticized for not standing tall in the pocket, delivering a strike and taking a hit. In the play below he hangs tough, delivers to Clay and gets popped. I hope to see more of this going forward GAME SUMMARY Typically when the Bills throw more than 30 times with TT at the helm they lose. Against the Jets they threw 25 times in the first half alone and 36 times overall for the game. So in this game they overcame the 30+ attempts per game curse.. let's hope that is a trend that continues. Also of note is that the assumption was that TT would predominantly be under center in this offense.. for week 1 it was the opposite.. he was in Shotgun 23 out of 36 snaps. Outside of John Miller the O Line had a reasonably solid day .. giving TT time to throw on 81% of his dropbacks. TT did a decent job going over his reads and didn’t really leave too much on the table. His WR’s were blanketed on the deep ball attempts and in general had trouble getting any separation down the field. Great job by Dennison of carving up the middle of the field and taking advantage of what the Jets were giving them and the weakness of them defending the middle. __ _____ POSITIVES - JORDAN MILLS - i'll admit I've been a Mills basher after his performance in '16.. however.. he was very very solid against the Jets. If he can play at that level all year this offense has a shot to be decent. QUICK GAME PROGRESS CONTINUES - TT is showing signs of being able to hit his drop and get the ball out quickly . MOBILITY - TTs mobility can be a blessing and a curse.. but at the end of the day his ability to scramble, buy time and run if necessary (when properly implemented) was an asset today. MOVING THE CHAINS – TT did something he hasn’t necessarily done well in the past.. move the chains. TT consistently put the Bills in good situations and executed on getting first downs and controlling the ball. NEGATIVES JOHN MILLER - granted Miller was lined up against a beast in Leonard Williams.. but ouch.. he got tossed around pretty bad Sunday. I'm really hoping this was more of a case of Leonard Williams and less Miller's decline in play. Let's hope he rebounds .. because the alternative ( Ducassse) is not pretty. DEEP BALL - hard to pin this on Taylor .. more on the WRs not getting behind the D.. but RED ZONE - TT’s 2 unforced errors on the first drive had a major impact on the flow of the 1st half. In looking back at older posts this seems to be a trend .. where he commits most of his errors in Q1 but then settles down during the game. SIGNIFICANT PLAYS Q1 15:00 - Miller whiffs on 99 gives up pressure q1 14:18- Wood and Miller do a great job picking up a stunt allowing TT completion over the middle q1 13:25 - O'Leary slips on out route .. TT good throw but slip causes incompletion q1 - 9:06 - UNFORCED ERROR - TT telegraphs out route to Clay and DE jumps up and bats it down q1 9:02 - UNFORCED ERROR - TT is late and behind Clay on goalline causing INT q1 5:39 - Cordy glen beaten to the inside results in scramble/sack q1 1:28 - UNFORCED ERROR - TT throws high and behind Clay on an open in route q1 1:22 - Dawkins beaten to outside..gives up pressure.. TT has incredible escape and makes completion to Matthews q2 6:34 - John Miller run over by 92 ... TT delivers ball to Clay and takes a hit q2 4:51 - John Miller manhandled by 92 again q2 - :57 - Clay drops out route q2 :51 - Wood doesn't pick up a stunt .. SACK q3 11:27 - Deep ball to Matthews is good throw but CB has good coverage q3 8:36 - 5 Step drop, nice throw to Matthews over the middle q4 - UNFORCED ERROR - TT throws a screen pass at Jordan Mills' feet.. just a plain old dud throw
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Miserable Bastard
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this is clearly the winner.. how could I have forgotten this
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Clutch catch...
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Jeremy Maclin (Agrees to 2 year deal with Ravens)
Bocephuz replied to BillsDiehard's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
This is very doable. according to Spotrac we have ~ $12 mil in cap space ( top 51 players figure) I see him slotting in between Brandon Marshall deal high end ( 2 years $11mil / $5.5 mil per year avg) and Brandon LaFell deal ( 2 years $9 mil/ $4.5 mil per year avg) So..... offer him 2 year $10 mil and if you need to sweeten the deal guarantee the 1st year. -
Bills Roster 2017: Categorising the players
Bocephuz replied to GunnerBill's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Love the concept OP. Well done. As an O Line junkie ... here is my take on the OL Offensive Line Cordy Glenn - there is a small chance that he's moved to RT if Ducasse or Dawkins don't work out.. but either way he is definitely on the roster Richie Incognito - played at very high level last year...highly unlikely he is salary cap cut. team hoping to get one more good year out of him John Miller - improved greatly last year despite having a tire fire to his right all year. he will not be cut Ryan Groy - just resigned, played as good or better than Wood filling in for him. He very well may win the starting Center job. At worst he is solid backup center or guard. Dion Dawkins - will get shot at RT spot. At worst should be valuable backup swing guard or maybe even backup swing tackle Vlad Ducasse - similar to Dawkins.. will likely get shot at RT. Will most likely be backup guard, emergency tackle Cyrus Kouandjio - performed very well at LT last year when Glenn was hurt. Assuming his off field problems have been addressed I think he may be able to keep a roster spot. One thing hurting him is his lack of versatility. He was a failure at RT and is not suited to play Guard. However.. he does look comfortable at his natural LT position which is still the key to the O LIne.. especially for a Right Handed QB. Eric Wood - Groy's play when he was out puts him squarely on the bubble. IMO .. Wood will need to clearly outplay Groy in training camp or else he will likely be cut or traded due to his high cap number and age. Jordan Mills - Red is an appropriate color for Mills as he was a tire fire for most of last year at RT. Unless there is a rash of injuries I find it highly unlikely that he will be able to hold off his competition. Very likely to be a cut Seantrel Henderson - so many issues here I don't know where to start. Even when he was healthy he wasn't that good. Maybe Doug Marrone will trade for him. Patrick Lewis - have seen very little of him in action and having Wood and Groy in the fold it seems unlikely he will be able to hang on to a roster spot -
Most Exciting Last Minute of a Bills game ever?
Bocephuz replied to Another Fan's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
painful for me to post this.. but Dal at Buf MNF 2007 is my most exciting. Most depressing as well. I remember lying on my stomach with my head down the floor of my apartment in front of the TV after Folk made his kick. I literally did not move for 5 minutes. That was the ultimate kick in the nuts https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kPupCwlK45I Cowboys have ball with less than a minute to go .. score is Buffalo 24- Dal 16 Romo throws TD with :20 on the clock to make it Buf 24 - Dal 22 Jabari Greer INTERCEPTS 2 PT CONVERSION!!!! Buf 24 - Dal 22 Dal recovers onside kick Romo completes pass to Bills 25 .. Dal calls Timeout with :01 on clock Nick Folk makes a 42 yd field goal Buf 24 - Dal 25 -
Most Exciting Last Minute of a Bills game ever?
Bocephuz replied to Another Fan's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
that is pretty cool... hail mary. Also Fergie was before my time ( I was born in 1979) so cool to see him action. God Bless youtube -
Bills 2017 Markting Slogan Fan Suggestions
Bocephuz replied to PlayoffsPlease's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
"It's a New Era v. 2.0" -
Please define the role of each...
Bocephuz replied to BILLiever55's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Owner: Sets goals, work culture. Has regular reviews/meetings with management and holds them accountable. GM: Most vital task is ensuring the roster is properly managed. Consults with HC, Owner on player personnel moves but has ultimate final say on roster. HC: Responsible for all on-field actions by players/assistants...most importantly game management functions such as clock management, replays, tempo, strategy. May have expertise in one particular area but main responsibility is to ensure that all 3 phases ( Special Teams, Offense, and Defense) work together in a cohesive fashion. Should delegate things such as play calling, scheme, technique teaching as much as possible to assistants. Responsible for developing relationship with players and balancing morale and discipline. Reports directly to the GM. COORDINATORS :Responsible for scheme, technique and execution of their phase of the game ( defense, special teams, offense). Should defer to head coach on game day to ensure that strategy/play calling meshes with other 2 phases. Reports to head coach. Positional coaches: Fine tuning of position groups. Teaches tricks of the trade. -
Davis Webb Air Raid offense knock unfair? link to article
Bocephuz replied to Bocephuz's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Good point. From what I hear Mahomes has a solid work ethic so maybe he can learn pro style in time. My concern is that he didn't even stay within the confines of the simple Air Raid offense most of the time. From what I saw he improvised 80% of snaps. In other words.. he may be smart enough to learn the stuff but what good does it do when it all goes out the window when the bullets are real. With Webb I get the impression that he is much more open to staying true to a system -
Davis Webb Air Raid offense knock unfair? link to article
Bocephuz replied to Bocephuz's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
In the 3 games I watched from Mahomes I didn't see any throws that lead me to believe his arm clearly was head and shoulders above the other guys. I saw him throwing off balance and on the run a lot.. so in that aspect..being able to throw from awkward positions yes he has arm talent. It's very possible that he showed that plus plus arm off in the games I didn't see. There were multiple throws I saw from Webb where he was "throwing darts" 20 - 30 yards down the field. In the 3 games I watched with Watson I saw a fair amount of zip and did not get the impression that he has a "weak" arm. -
Davis Webb Air Raid offense knock unfair? link to article
Bocephuz replied to Bocephuz's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
I'm not saying the Air Raid offense is legit. My point is that if you read the article it points out that he's passionate about learning and his football acumen already seems very developed. In other words.. given a reasonable amount of time he seems to have the capacity to learn if not master an NFL offense. -
Davis Webb Air Raid offense knock unfair? link to article
Bocephuz replied to Bocephuz's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
I think he'll likely be gone by the time our 2nd round pick comes up. I'd love to see us trade down from #10 down to somewhere in the 20's which would be the perfect spot to grab him. I don't know if he'll be able to immediately win the starting job but I think he'd definitely be ready after a year on the bench. -
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/how-davis-webb-has-become-the-most-intriguing-qb-prospect-in-the-nfl-draft/ Admittedly... I have been a Davis Webb fan since a few weeks before the Senior Bowl when I started watching youtube of the QB prospects. He excited me most out of all the guys as having the highest ceiling ( Kizer being a close second). (I did my own chart based on watching 3 games a piece for the various qbs.. see below) This article touches on several of the things that were very obvious positive traits that I saw.. namely + ARM STRENGTH AGGRESSIVE APPROACH.. CONSISTENTLY LOOKS TO GO DEEP FIRST THROWS INTO TIGHT WINDOWS One of the biggest knocks you hear is " Great Arm but Air Raid QBs don't translate to the NFL". This article challenges that notion ... coach's son, has his own playbook he's developed over the years for future coaching gig, r ran Friday team offensive meetings instead of the coach After reading this article I think the Air Raid knock on him is short-sided and is likely not a well informed criticism. The biggest thing he is behind on is taking drops and developing good footwork from under center as he was exclusively shotgun. If he can overcome this I think he will be the best QB of this class when the smoke clears. Thoughts?
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See my overall qb rankings below... based on watching 3 games for each qb (click to maximize) I really like Webb. He's not perfect.. but he has several "best in class" traits to my eye BEST IN CLASS - ARM STRENGTH - his throwing motion literally looks like he is throwing darts. He has the strength to drive the ball to any part of the field - AGGRESSIVENESS - he is not afraid to put the ball into tight windows. He also consistently attacks the intermediate areas without fear. According to PFF when measuring Deep Passing.. Webb had the highest number of attempts, yards and TDs when throwing deep. His completion percentage on deep balls was low.. however.. he had 18 TDS and 5 TDs when attempting to throw deep.. which tells me that he is taking smart chances. It also tells me he looks to go deep first rather than to check down. - ACCURACY - when he is on the same page and trusts his receivers he does a fantastic job of leading his guy or putting it in a spot where only WR can get it. - HEIGHT/VISION - his height allows him to see over the line to any part of the field - DEEP BALL -- He's not afraid to take shots deep and I saw several nice examples of well thrown deep sideline balls. - TOUGHNESS - I saw several examples of him hanging in the pocket an extra half second, delivering the throw and taking the big hit. WEAKNESSES - UNDER CENTER EXPERIENCE - He was out of shotgun almost 100% of the time .. so adjusting to a pro style under center offense and 3,5,7 step drops will likely take a while. His footwork wasn't too bad for a shotgun guy.. but he did get sloppy sometimes. It is also unknown if he can make NFL reads as he played in air raid offense. However.. I have read that he comes across as very smart and is dedicated to football.. so it seems he has the capacity and desire to learn. - DECISION MAKING - He had an up an down season. The 2 games I watched at the beginning of the year he was decisive and fantastic. The game towards the end of the year I watched he was more hesitant and threw some bad picks and errant throws. - MOBILITY - for a guy of his height he has functional mobility. He's not a statue .. but he will never be a real running threat that the D will have to account for CONCLUSION The 2 guys that I think have the highest ceilings are Kizer and Webb. Out of the two... Webb is probably farthest behind as far as being prepared to start year 1. That being said.. I think he is worth taking in Round 2 for a team that has an established starter where he can sit and learn for a year FIT FOR BUFFALO? If Matt Schaub (who was not a running qb) could run Kubiak's (Dennison"s) offense effectively.. certainly Davis Webb could learn to do it. As the Bills have TT in place as a Vet Starter.. they would be a perfect place for Webb to come in and sit and learn. He would be great competition for Cardale (who I also like). If he ends up beating out Cardale for the #2 job then so be it. What I don't want is a vet backup QB this year... we roll with TT and if he gets hurt and we don't make playoffs .. oh well.. I'd rather see the QB of the future get reps than a vet backup QB come in to try to get us to squeeze into playoffs
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Tomcat's 11th Annual "Gimme Five" contest - up to $50
Bocephuz replied to The Tomcat's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
. Mike Williams - Bengals 2. Corey Davis - Titans 3. Malik Hooker - Ravens 4. OJ Howard - Bills 5 Mitch Trubisky - 49ers $10 Bonus - Who the Bills pick - OJ Howard -
At the very least they should try it out for a week or so in Training Camp.. makes too much to not at least give it an honest look. Glenn already got his big long term payday deal as a LT so I don't think he'd be too worried about how moving to RT would impact his next contract. Also Ricky Wagner just got $9 mil to play RT for the Lions so I think teams are starting to value RT and their price will keep going up over time.
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I'd be confident that Kujo would perform at an average level over 16 games at LT. Not as good as Glenn.. but I think he'd be adequate. While the concepts are likely the same on either side of the line... the muscle memory for LT and RT technique is completely opposite. It's been pretty obvious to me that Kujo has looked much more comfortable on the left side than the right.
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Here's a new name I hadn't come across before Austin Pasztor, OT, Browns. Age: 26. PFF GRADE: 84 pass block / 68 Run block __ _ Here's what Walterfootball says Austin Pasztor replaced the Kansas City-bound Mitchell Schwartz and did an OK job. Pasztor is a serviceable starter who pass protects well. He was a clear downgrade from Schwartz, however. Read more at http://walterfootball.com/freeagents2017OT.php#shM5aIGmMGpmeppI.99
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OT Andre Smith visiting Bills
Bocephuz replied to Deep2Moulds46's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Watching Bills/Bengals 2016 right now. First series. Smith has false start and next play Hughes blows by him on inside move. I've seen enough. No thanks... I'd rather give Ducasse a shot -
He already got his big $ LT contract .. it's unlikely he'll get another one so what does he care if he plays RT I want Groy at Center and cut Eric Wood to save $4 mil or so this year.
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CK looked very solid at LT last year. I think he would be an average to slightly above average LT. Conversely.. he has looked bad whenever the team has switched him to the Right Side. Totally fine with flipping Glenn to RT.. and I don't think he would care too much as he already got his big money LT contract. All that said.. looks like Vlad the Impaler is front runner for RT job right now. The RT crop in the draft looks weak. I suppose you could argue that Cam Robinson or Ramcyk would be better than Ducasse at RT.. but I'm not sure about that and I don't think I'd be drafting a RT in the first few rounds if I'm the Bills