Bocephuz

anecdotally about 70%

i started doing this with EJ Manuel… i would say anecdotally that if more than 5 unforced errors the team loses about 70% of the time unfortunately you are likely correct.. its a shame tho

good points on under center Jets DEs were way out wide which gave them a few extra steps and momentum crashing into the OTs which helped in the bull rush.

In the past i used to do lengthy in depth posts with gifs.. don't have time for that nowadays I watched every passing snap to evaluate pass blocking performance as well as Josh Allen unforced errors committed (PASS BLOCKING ONLY EVALUATED.. did not evaluate running plays). UNFORCED ERROR = Allen has time to throw, wr is open and he misses throw.. or.. Allen makes poor unforced decision OLINEMAN BEATEN = O lineman clearly loses his one on one matchup... or.. clearly misreads stunt/combo block ____ OLINEMAN BEATEN STATS DAWKINS - 2 MCGOVERN - 2 MORSE - 3 TORRENCE - 1 BROWN - 4 -DAWKINS - Dion was generally solid but was physically pushed back into Josh several times via bull rush - MCGOVERN - Was not beaten one on one at all by my eye.. however.. he and Dawkins misread several stunts - MORSE - Rough day going against the beast that is 95 Q. Williams. He was beaten by bull rush once, and beaten by speed technique 2 other times. - TORRENCE - He and Morse doubled up against 95 successfully several times. To my eye Torrence was only beaten once.. and that was when he was bullrushed back into Josh' lap in q1 - BROWN - Not quite as bad as I thought it was watching live.. however.. once again 79 was the worst lineman on the field. False start penalty to start OT was brutal ( Torrence was doing the hand motion snap thing and it looked a little off..Knox got caught FS on that too so a small portion of the False Starts blame may lie with Torrence). He was beaten both by speed to the outside and by bull rush. On the bright side.. he and Torrence generally did a nice job picking up stunts. OL SUMMARY : Rough day against a monster D line. Dawk and McGovern need to develop better chemistry picking up stunts. There were certainly a few times where Josh bailed out of clean pockets however ( see next section). Generally pleased with new additions of McGovern and Torrance. QB UNFORCED ERRORS: Josh had 7 unforced errors by my count. Based on my history of doing this kind of analysis when a qb has 5 or more unforced errors the chances of his team winning decrease materially. SIGNIFICANT PLAYS - ( note: I do not have all of josh 7 unforced errors spelled out here for time's sake. but there were at least 7 ) - UE 1 - Q1 - Threw behind Diggs on slant - q1- Torrence and Brown bullrushed into Josh - UE2 Q1 INTERCEPTION - Josh bails clean pocket to left and throws int into double coverage - q1 - Torrence and Brown do good job picking up stunt - q1- Brown bullrushed into Josh by 91 UE3 q1 - Josh underthrow to Cook on 9 route near end zone - UE4 - Q2 - Josh slips stepping up into relatively clean pocket - q2 INTERCEPTION - Josh somewhat to blame.. however... Morse is beaten by 95 and Josh is hit as he delivers pass. Pass falls slightly short and picked off. -q3- McGovern late picking up stunt... Josh hit as he steps up into pocket by stunting DE UE 5 - INTERCEPTION - Clean pocket.. bad read/throw by Josh -UE 6 Q4 0- Josh fumbles shotgun snap - OT - Brown false start SUMMARY - The guards played well .. however both tackles and the center struggled. This Jets D is physical.. and their stunt game is strong. Make no mistake..the line was shaky and Josh was certainly under duress. That being said.. at the beginning of the game Josh was very on script, getting the ball out in the quick game to avoid pressure which basically negated pass pro issues. As the pressures starting mounting up.. Josh became more and more rattled..and when he had to take deeper drops/ longer reads things started to fall apart. 7 unforced QB errors are too much for most teams to overcome. Hopefully Dorsey puts Josh under center a little more to develop footwork and timing of routes better. The few times he was under center for passing both the pocket and Josh's timing looked much smoother.

Bills - 20 Jets - 17 Both defenses come out balling - Rodgers is not willing to take hits, not willing to scramble like he used to. - Rodgers with a lot of throwaways/screens/quick game - Rodgers gets protection a few times and he and Wilson connect several times for big plays and Wilson scores at least once - Dalvin Cook breaks at least one long run - Bills generally hold Jets to FGs - Dorsey has Josh come out with Rams week 1 gameplan from last year - Ball out quick .. on time to counter Jets pass rush - Kincaid and Harty get fed early - Cook gets fed as well - Sauce jumps route and gets INT - Sauce gets burned at least once jumping a route after that - Pass rush gets to Josh when Dorsey starts calling 5 or 7 step drop plays and he starts bailing and improvising - Josh turns it over once or twice - Eventually Josh starts running to break the pass rush and makes enough plays with his legs/arm to win the game

27 - RT Jones - May not fall this far.. but if he does.. he is likely the strongest RT prospect in the draft. ( All this Spencer Brown hype from Beane is smokescreen.. Brown was a disaster last year) 59 - C/G Wypler - long term replacement for aging/concussion prone Morse. Immediate competition for Bates/Boettger 91 - DT Brooks - 3 Technique, Edge in certain sets. They'll need bodies at this position come 2024 130 - EDGE - Henry - pass rush specialist... push Epenesa.. 137- WR - Washington - poor man's Leviska Shenault - jet sweeps, slot, bubble screens 205 - S - Hellams - Leprechaun loves solid tackling DBs, depth, Special Teams

two words Jacoby Brissett

Good question.. i don’t have a specific #. I recall once or twice either a TE or back chipped his guy. But he was pretty much on an island with Phillips all day. Dorsey has occasionally put RB or TE over to help but very rarely

In my opinion .. Yes. Quessenberry should be brought back in at RT assuming he's healthy. With Q in at RT.. they would likely suffer a bit in the run game as Brown is probably better run blocker. However.. it could not possibly be any worse than it is now in pass pro with Spencer in there.

In the past i used to do lengthy in depth posts with gifs.. don't have time for that nowadays I watched every passing snap to evaluate pass blocking performance as well as Josh Allen unforced errors committed (PASS BLOCKING ONLY EVALUATED.. did not evaluate running plays). Unforced error = Allen has time to throw, wr is open and he misses throw.. or.. Allen makes poor unforced decision OLINEMAN BEATEN = O lineman clearly loses his one on one matchup... or.. clearly misreads stunt/combo block ____ OLINEMAN BEATEN STATS DAWKINS - 0 SAFFOLD - 1 MORSE - 0 BATES - 0 BROWN - 7 -DAWKINS - Dion was mostly solid. He had a few reps where his guy beat him on a speed rush to the outside.. but he recovered just enough to not make it a lost rep - SAFFOLD - Two weeks in a row of solid performance for Saffold. He had one false start.. but did not surrender any obvious pressures to my eye - MORSE - Usual reliable self. Had one rep on Allen sack where Bates was pulling behind him on a fake run and Mitch didn't quite get over to fill Bates' gap and the blitzer got through. That being said.. i think it was just a bad play call by Dorsey... and bad timing on safety blitzing in that gap.. so not gonna penalize the center for that. -BATES - zero pressures surrendered.. and he played against Christian Wilkinson a lot. See above comment regarding the Allen snap. On live TV it totally looked like Bates' fault.. however.. watching all 22-- the play call clearly had him pulling out of that gap. - BROWN - Absolute tire fire. If you saw Josh having to step up in the pocket.. or shift up and drift to his right out of the pocket.. it was because of Spencer Brown. #15 Phillips absolutely dominated him all day. On most reps.. Phillips just clean beat him to the outside on speed rush.. causing Allen to have to bail out of the pocket early several times. These edge rushes then set up several reps where Phillips faked outside.. got Brown to overshift.. and then he beat him inside for pressures. This was one of the worst ass whoopings I've seen an OT take. Granted Phillips is a stud.. but he had #79 on rollerskates most of the day. OL SUMMARY : Outside of RT Brown.. the o line had a very solid day in pass protect. The vaunted Miami inside DTs did not do much damage at all. Singletary was particularly solid in picking up a lot of the zero blitzes. The Line also seemed to communicate well against all the blitzing. QB UNFORCED ERRORS: Josh had 6 unforced errors by my count. Based on my history of doing this kind of analysis when a qb has 5 or more unforced errors the chances of his team winning decrease materially. - UE 1: Q1 - #17 scrambles left, needlessly fakes a pitch and fumbles it out of bounds - UE2: Q2 - INTERCEPTION - Deep attempt to Brown. Josh had time, should have thrown it away .. threw ball late/flat footed and off target to Brown. Romo was wrong about it being Smoke's fault - UE3: Q3 - BAILS POCKET - Josh had a clean pocket and could have hung in for another second.. but he stepped up and out of the pocket and underthrew Beasley on crosser over middle. - UE 4: q3 -INTERCEPTION - Clean pocket.. late throw to Beasley that gets tipped and picked. He should have thrown it away. - UE 5: Q4 - Clean pocket - overthrow in flat to Shakir - UE 6 : q4 - Clean pocket - slant to Davis is low and behind. SUMMARY - 4/5 of the O Line performed fantastically against the Fish. Allen had many instances where he climbed the pocket instead of bailing.. and for the most part he handled the pressure well. I think he's so used to Spencer Brown getting beat to the outside he naturally steps up and to the right. Last week Allen and Co. had trouble wiht the Patriots delayed cb, lb and s blitzes. For the most part the Dolphins weren't that subtle. They crowded the line and sent everyone all at once most of the time. Singletary was amazing at pass pro this week.. much better than last week against Pats. Josh' 6 unforced errors were much higher than his usual 2 or 3. Some of that may be due to Miami DL getting their hands up into passing lanes. The Dolphins DBs had pretty tight coverage on some plays.. and on a few of those plays Bad Josh came out when he threw late to Beasley and Brown when he should have just thrown it away. The good news is that Allen did actually throw a couple away when noone was open.. so he has the aptitude to do that when nothing is there. Dawkins - 0 times beaten.. ( fyi)

if we were gonna spend some money at G this offseason... 31. OG BEN POWERS, BALTIMORE RAVENS Powers took a meteoric leap as a pass protector in 2022, with his 86.5 pass-blocking grade the second-best mark among guards this season. Powers allowed zero sacks and just one quarterback hit the entire year, playing in front of three different quarterbacks over the second half of the campaign. The 6-foot-4, 338-pound behemoth struggles a bit as a run blocker, but if he could do enough to get by in Baltimore, odds are he can hold up well enough elsewhere. 32. OG ISAAC SEUMALO, PHILADELPHIA EAGLES Seumalo entered 2022 with some uncertainty after missing a ton of time with injuries over the 2020-21 seasons, and after the Eagles used a second-round pick on interior offensive lineman Cam Jurgens, but Seumalo logged more than 1,000 snaps in 2022 and had a huge bounceback year, earning a career-best 75.2 overall grade. Seumalo was the model of consistency not just from a health standpoint, earning just one single-game grade below 60.0 on the season — and a 59.4 at that. Seumalo’s pass blocking from Week 11 on — protecting two very different quarterbacks in Jalen Hurts and Gardner Minshew — was nothing short of spectacular, earning a 90.4 mark with zero quarterback hits and pressure allowed on just 1.8% of pass-block snaps.

Agree O Line needs to be priority in draft. McBeane and Co. have really done a miraculous job turning this franchise around, but If there is one area where they deserve criticism its O Line management.Cody Ford is the only O Lineman taken in Rd 1 or 2 by this regime in the last 6 years. Morse was a great FA add.. but the cheap veteran stop gaps they've brought in ( Spain, Saffold, Van Roten etc....) have not panned out at all. Boettger is not a world beater.. but I do agree that he would be a good temporary upgrade over Saffold who has been an epic bust as a pass protector. Brown started off his rookie year with much promise.. but he just doesn't have the ability to get out in front of the outside speed rush. Maybe it's injuries catching up with him.. maybe its just the way he is. Either way he is clearly not an NFL starter. I agree that both RT and LG need to be priorities. If they draft either of those positions in rd 1 or 2 I'd be happy. Haven't started doing draft research yet and wont' as long as Bills are still alive in the playoffs. However, once they do get eliminated I'll be looking for good G / T prospects.

yeah.. that one early in game

hah.. forgot to write down the specifics on that one. I believe it may have been Q1 throw that was behind Davis Agree that Saffold sucks ( see D- grade for the year at end of post) I

In the past i used to do lengthy in depth posts with gifs.. don't have time for that nowadays I watched every passing snap to evaluate pass blocking performance as well as Josh Allen unforced errors committed (PASS BLOCKING ONLY EVALUATED.. did not evaluate running plays). Unforced error = Allen has time to throw, wr is open and he misses throw.. or.. Allen makes poor unforced decision OLINEMAN BEATEN = O lineman clearly loses his one on one matchup... or.. clearly misreads stunt/combo block ____ OLINEMAN BEATEN STATS DAWKINS - 1 SAFFOLD - 1 MORSE - 1 BATES - 3 BROWN - 2 -DAWKINS - 73 was stout.. he and Saffold did miscommunicate on one stunt pickup.. but one-on-one Shnowman was reliable all day - SAFFOLD - For the first time in weeks Roger had a solid game in pass pro. Other than the one miscommunication listed above he handled his one-on-one matchups very well. - MORSE - Usual reliable self.. normal stat line. One pressure surrendered.. great work rest of snaps. -BATES - To my eye this was the first bad game in pass protect for Rick Bates this year. He gave up 3 pressures. He and Brown appeared to communicate with each other before a couple of stunts.. but Bates was late to switch on those. Of note.. Bates gave up a pressure on the Josh INT. In addition.. on the 60 yd bomb TD to Diggs Bates was beaten by DT #95 Ekalue .. who hit Josh just after he uncorked his bomb ( luckily he eased up). - BROWN - 79 gave up a couple of pressures as usual. As usual he was beaten to the outside on speed moves. OL SUMMARY : The O Line certainly wasn't perfect... but good enough. It was a bit hard to judge the OL on Sunday (particularly the OTs) as Belichick was clearly calling for a "QB Contain Rush" rush on 5- 10 plays where the DE doesn't put in full effort to beat the OT. Its a classic running-QB defense where you coach the DEs not to overshoot too deep on the outside in their rush technique.. essentially they get even with QB and just hang out and set the edge to prevent rushing lanes. QB UNFORCED ERRORS: Josh had 3 unforced errors by my count. Based on my history of doing this kind of analysis when a qb has 5 or more unforced errors the chances of his team winning decrease materially. - q2 - Josh INT - I'm calling this unforced even though Bates did give up a pressure on this one. Nevertheless, Allen had a mess going on around his knees/feet and should've either taken the sack or threw it away. Instead he threw a wounded duck, late, in the middle of the field.. in the red zone area that was picked off. -q2 - Overthrow to Davis in end zone. Protection was solid.. sailed over Davis post route in end zone ( maybe he was thinking about the game ender against Vikings in same spot/route.. and subconsciously over threw there?) SUMMARY - The line was not a disaster. For the most part Allen made good decisions and did not bail out of clean pockets. He had a few reps where he actually climbed the pocket a little. As an offense they had the most trouble with the delayed blitzes and simple stunts. Allen handled the obvious all-out blitzes decisively and effectively for the most part. The running back pass pro (which is usually stout) was also sub par against NE. The "QB Contain Rush" strategy certainly limited Allen's rushing lanes and yards.. but it also gave him a few opportunities to sit back and find his late progressions with lasers END OF YEAR O LINE PASS PRO GRADES: DAWKINS - B- SAFFOLD- D- MORSE - B+ VAN ROTEN - C BOETTGER - n/a BATES - B+ QUESSENBERRY - C BROWN - D-

That 2nd pick was borderline for me. .. it appeared that Allen had a DT in his face when he delivered the throw to 26. It appeared he had to throw around the DTs hand to get it to 26 and that.. along with the wind carrying it... seemed to cause the pick. In other words.. it was somewhat of a forced error due to he DT being in his face. You could certainly argue it the other way as well.. that he could have made a different decision there. SAFFOLD - Good observation. Now that you mention it .. most of the time Saffold gets beat it is in the direction of the Center.. to the inside... which is right in Allen's face and immediately blows up Allen's spot. Thankfully Allen is athletic enough to escape those most of the time... most other QBs would be trapped.

ahh.. good point.

If anyone has a link to an article/interview about the Bills issues with practicing this week please share.. thank you

Problem is.. Saffold has deteriorated physically.. and the "vet" mental bonus seems to be gone too. Seems like every week he miscommunicates/mishandles picking up relatively simple stunts.

Good point about the scramble one.. I was on the fence about making that an unforced error as he did run for a first down. Either way Diggs was open on the deep seem route and he did have a clean pocket. Should he get benched... absolutely. He's had the worst year in pass protect at Guard that I've seen since I started doing this Will he actually get benched... to your point... probably not I think both Brown and Saffold seem to be plus run blockers so that is probably a big reason they're not on bench. If it was my call I'd prioritize protected my $40 Mil franchise QB over getting a little juice in the run game.. but .. it's not my call

no doubt the level of competition was below average...

To me Josh is a mix of : Brett Favre - gun for an arm, mobile, creative, wreckless at times but gets away with most gambles Cam Newton - size, toughness, excellent runner Tony Romo - Josh's new throwing motion is pretty much a carbon copy of Romo's. There's been several interviews where Josh credited an offseason meeting with Romo as having a huge impact in how he approaches his throwing motion

In the past i used to do lengthy in depth posts with gifs.. don't have time for that nowadays I watched every passing snap to evaluate pass blocking performance as well as Josh Allen unforced errors committed (PASS BLOCKING ONLY EVALUATED.. did not evaluate running plays). Unforced error = Allen has time to throw, wr is open and he misses throw.. or.. Allen makes poor unforced decision OLINEMAN BEATEN = O lineman clearly loses his one on one matchup... or.. clearly misreads stunt/combo block ____ OLINEMAN BEATEN STATS DAWKINS - 0 SAFFOLD - 2 BATES - 1 GVR - 1 BOETTGER - 0 BROWN - 0 OL SUMMARY : The O Line had a much better showing in pass protect this week compared to the Miami game. -DAWKINS - 2 clean performances in a row for the Shnowman. Dawkins has had some very rough patches this year but he is trending back to his old pro bowl self.. just in time for the playoffs. - SAFFOLD - another week.. another instance of Saffold leading the unit in pressures given up. At least he only gave up 2 this week.. and was not a complete tire fire like most other weeks. -BATES - no bad snaps and only 1 mistake in pass pro that I saw. Q3 Bates does not pick up a twist stunt correctly and surrenders a pressure. Other than that 71 was very stout. Showed grit coming back into game after injury. - VAN ROTEN - Another solid showing for Van Roten this week. I only had him for 1 pressure surrendered. I believe he also shifted over to Center for a few plays while Bates was out. - BOETTGER - Welcome back Ike! Stepped in for a few series due to injury to Bates injury. Looked OK and did not give up any obvious pressures. - BROWN - 79 finally had a game to hang his hat on. He was not beaten at all on the outside speed rush this week ( his usual kryptonite). You could tell on a few snaps that he was overselling his kick step on the snap to make sure his right/outside was covered. Hopefully this is a sign of things to come. We shall see though. QB UNFORCED ERRORS: Josh had 5 unforced errors by my count. Based on my history of doing this kind of analysis when a qb has 5 or more unforced errors the chances of his team winning decrease materially. - q2 - INT . Josh had protection .. just made a really bad unforced decision and bad throw for the pick - q2 - overthrow Singletary not pressure related -q3 - Rolled right and made horrible reverse field throw that could have easily been picked off. Sugar Rush Josh there. q3 - Clean pocket... has Diggs open on deep seam route but tucks and runs instead q4 - Josh bails out of clean pocket unnecessarily SUMMARY - The Bills really leaned into the run game last Saturday and also were playing with a lead most of the game.. so game script put a lot less pressure on the Bills O Line regarding pass protect. Nevertheless... the line played much better this week than in Miami. Josh did not have his best day between the 20's. Several unforced careless decisions and poor throws were made. He had several instances of bailing out of a clean pocket to early. That being said.. 17 really calmed down in the red zone. In particular the pass to McKenzie was a beauty as Josh stood statue calm in a clean pocket and waiting for 6 to cross and get open.. throwing a nice strike. Bates did another great job filling in for Morse and kudos to GVR and Ike for filling in admirably. Hopefully this is the game to get Spencer back on track.. and hopefully Ike replaces Roger Saffold sometime in the next few weeks.

Brown at guard may not be bad. He rarely gets beat with power. Kicking him into Guard would pretty much eliminate the speed rush weaknesses as an issue. Then again.. this regime tried to do the same thing with Cody Ford and we all know how that worked out. As Brown is a late round pick.. there’s really no compelling reason to go out of their way to “save” him IMO It could be the back. He had moments of brilliance in his rookie season.. but hasn’t been same since injuries

In the past i used to do lengthy in depth posts with gifs.. don't have time for that nowadays I watched every passing snap to evaluate pass blocking performance as well as Josh Allen unforced errors committed (PASS BLOCKING ONLY EVALUATED.. did not evaluate running plays). Unforced error = Allen has time to throw, wr is open and he misses throw.. or.. Allen makes poor unforced decision OLINEMAN BEATEN = O lineman clearly loses his one on one matchup... or.. clearly misreads stunt/combo block ____ OLINEMAN BEATEN STATS DAWKINS - 1 SAFFOLD - 6 MORSE - 0 GVR - 1 QUES - 1 BROWN - 4 OL SUMMARY : The O Line was solid in Q1 but absolutely melted down in Q3. Interestingly enough Morse going out with a concussion and all the shuffling did not appear to be the culprit for the poor O Line play. The 2 main culprits (as in most weeks this year) are Saffold and Brown.. and its hard to blame their mistakes on anything else but their poor technique and awareness. Lets dig in -DAWKINS - Looked pretty solid for most of the game.. back to his old self mostly. He and Saffold did have some miscommunication on a twist stunt.. but other than that 73 was reliable at LT - SAFFOLD - Saffold may be one of the worst pass blocking guards I've evaluated since doing these type of reviews. He gave up or was involved in 6 QB pressures against Miami (which I believe is the highest number I've recorded since doing these reviews back in the Tyrod era). Q3 was particularly rough. On consecutive plays he had 1.) False Start 2.) Completely unaware of a twist stunt .. stayed with the DT and did not switch over to the stunting DE .. giving up a big hit on Josh. He is nearly worthless as a pass blocker. My hope is that Ike Boettger can step in at LG and put Saffold on the bench. Ike is certainly not a world beater.. but he should be able to hold up a little better than Saffold. -MORSE - looked fantastic, stout in his reps.. unfortunately went out with an injury midway through the game - VAN ROTEN - Kudos to Greg Van Roten. I ripped him pretty good last review.. but he stepped in at Center for Morse and did a fine job. Held on by the skin of his nose on a few reps but did not break. No bad snaps to QB.. was only beaten one time from what I saw - QUESSENBERRY - Did surprisingly well at Guard filling in. - BROWN - Yet another poor showing. Gave up 4 QB pressures. He has almost zero chance when the DE does a speed rush to the outside. QB UNFORCED ERRORS: Josh had 2 unforced errors by my count. Based on my history of doing this kind of analysis when a qb has 5 or more unforced errors the chances of his team winning decrease materially. He had a few throws that were just off.. but in most cases he was on the move due to pass protection breakdown and the bad throws were forced .. Josh was impressive this game. His elbow seems to be fine.. He tried to hang in the pocket and had very few unnecessary pocket bails. SUMMARY - Saffold and Brown have consistently shown that they are not reliable in pass protect. With Saffold.. I think there may be an answer with Ike Boettger replacing him. With Brown... I'm not so sure an answer is on the roster. Quessenberry has not really performed any better than Brown at RT. The Bills most definitely need to acquire a legit RT next year be it in FA or Draft. Hopefully Josh will continue to rise above and hopefully the play of Saffold and Brown will not be a fatal flaw in the playoffs.