Bocephuz

Good question.. keep in mind I haven't analyzed every game .. but I have looked at 9 games from 2015-2016. The first 2 games had EJ at QB. Here are some stats The average number of QB Unforced Errors in the 4 Bills Wins in these games is 2.75/ game The average number of Unforced Errors in the 5 Bills Losses is 6.33 / game The overall average for all 9 games I reviewed of Unforced Errors is 5.88 /game In the two games EJ was evaluated his average is 11.5 UE/ game ( 2015 Bengals /Jaguars ) In the 7 games for TT his average is 4.28 UE/ game TT's worst game was Chiefs game last year... had 8 UE and they lost

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I think Geary does a good job of breaking down the individual plays and technique but he doesn't really put things into overall context...he has a bit of an agenda and cherry picks a few plays to prove his point

There were 2 unquestionable drops.. ( Clay and Tate in Q1) I believe Powell had another unquestionable drop and Hunter dropped a hitch route( would have been tough catch but hit him in the hands). By that count it is certainly 3 and arguably 4 drops against Pats

Every unit played a part at one time or another

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Unforced errors.. bad throws/ How did the O Line do?/ What mistakes are on the O-Line.. what ones are not? I watched the NFL rewind all 22 and here is my unofficial count of how the O-Line did / How the QB did on every pass play (I may have missed a snap or two here or there. There also may be a few extra pass attempts that were cancelled due to penalites..but this should be 95% accurate) Sufficient protection means that TT had time to hit his drop and had at least a second to scan the field. DISCLAIMER (I am not a coach, I don't know the hot reads or route combinations called.. this is just my educated perception of what happened on each pass play) _______ ______________________ TOTAL PASS PLAYS: 36 - (last week was 40 for reference) LINE BREAKDOWNS: 9/36 - or 25% of snaps ( last week was 12/40 or 30% of snaps) In other words TT didn't really have a chance on 25% of his drop backs. Based on historical data the threshold for average O Line performance has been around a 20% breakdown rate. SUFFICIENT PROTECTION: 27/36 snaps or 75%. (last week was 70%). In other words TT had a relatively clean pocket 75% of the time UNFORCED QB ERRORS: 6/27 snaps or 22% ( last week was 5/28 snaps or 18%) Based on my 2015 studies if you have 5 unforced QB errors or less during a game your odds of winning are solid. TT had 6unforced errors by my count.. so he was over the line. Bottom Line: 1ST HALF PASS PROTECT WAS OK - Very similar to last week against the Dolphins..The O Line held up reasonably well in the 1st half. John Miller was cleanly beaten once in q1 but other than that TT had a relatively clean pocket for most of the first half. Some of this can be attributed to Pats only rushing 3 and dropping 8. However.. as the game wore on the Pats started to bring more bodies and heat toward the QB. RICHIE STRUGGLES AGAIN - The interior of the O Line really struggled in the second half and in particular in q4. Richie Incognito had 3 plays in one q4 series in which he was either physically beaten by his man or mentally did not recognize/ pick up stunts. I'm really starting to worry about 64 .. his pass protect has been poor the last few weeks and really seems to be getting worse. Here are some examples 64 fails to recognize the Safety blitz/stunt.. does not disengage from 91 to pick up 23.. resulting in TT flushed out of pocket . This one may be on both Wood and Incognito.. but I think I would shift the majority of the blame on 64. #95 executes a twist stunt. Wood fails to recognize and disengage his guy to pick up #95.. and Incognito is blocking ghosts and doesn't even look to his right In this play Richie just flat out gets physically beaten to the point of attack and #91 gets a solid hit on TT DROPS - TT had his share of poorly thrown unforced errors. However, there were some very bad drops.. including several particularly painful ones during the 2nd series of the game. At 3:59 Q1 Charles Clay dropped a decently thrown crossing route. On the next play .. Brandon Tate dropped a well thrown Cover 2 beater on 3rd down that killed a crucial series. https://gfycat.com/AgitatedIndelibleDikdik TYROD MISSES DEEP/ STRUGGLES THROWING TO RED ZONE- Not all of the blame can be put on TT for this one (O Line melted down in Q4, Receivers had bad drops) however... a fair amount of blame should go his way. His biggest misses were 2 deep balls to Powell in q3.. in both cases he didn't really give Powell a chance to catch the ball. And in both cases.. TT had a relatively clean pocket to throw from. In this example here he just overthrows Powell and doesn't give him a chance In this example it is thrown too far inside and short.. again.. he doesn't have a chance to make a play SUMMARY - Last week in Miami the O Line shouldered the majority of the blame for poor passing game performance. This week the O Line played betterThey had some bad moments but generally gave TT time in most situations. Mills had a much better game (although he did give up one sack on a speed outside rush).. and Incognito really just broke down on one series toward the end of the game. Tyrod had plenty of clean pockets to throw from but for the most part his receivers either let him down.. or he let his receivers down with unforced errors. Belichick rushing 3 and dropping guys in coverage really messed up the timing routes.. however.. there were many plays to be had that just weren't executed. TT can't afford to miss on his long balls.. if he doesn't hit one per game the Bills just don't have much of a chance of winning. After watching the All 22 I come away from this game with mixed feelings regarding Taylor. For example.. the underthrow to Clay in Q4 on the seam route was caused by pressure (which I didn't see in real time). He did have a few nice timing throws to Powell. On the other side of the coin there were some errant throws (like the one to Powell in q2 that was late, high and behind him) that looked just as bad in all 22 as they did in real time. Last week in Miami there were really only 2 ugly throws.. this week there were 4 or 5. If TT is going to continue to be conservative he can't afford to have 6 unforced errors ..essentially wasted opportunities.. in a game. O Line Pass block grades GLENN - B+ INCOGNITO - C- WOOD - B- MILLER - C MILLS- c+ PLAYS OF NOTE q113:25 - UNFORCED ERROR Q112:00 - John Miller beaten to the inside by 97 q1 3:59 - Clay drops decently thrown crossing route q1 3:54 - Tate drops beautifully thrown cover 2 beater on 3rd down killing a drive q2 13: 55 - UNFORCED ERROR - TT is late, high and behind Powell q2 11:10 - Gillislee misses blitz pickup, 91 hits TT resulting in seam throw to Clay q2 3:15 - nice thrown in tight window to Powell q2 1:21 - another nice timing route to Powell q2 - UNFORCED ERROR - throw behind Woods q2 - :38 - UNFORCED ERROR - another throw behind Woods q3 14:00 - Hunter drops a hitch throw q3 13:19 - Mills beaten to outside by Hightower resulting in sack q3 8:09 - UNFORCED ERROR - overthrow to Powell on go route in end zone q3 1:39 - UNFORCED ERROR - underthrown and too far inside to Powell on go route in end zone q4 4:15 - 95 blitzes untouched.. causes underthrown seam route to Clay q4 6:18 - Incognito misses stunt.. 23 flushes TT from pocket q4: 5:59 - Incognito misses stunt causing pressure on TT q4: Incognito beaten by his man and gives up hit on TT

He had a few plays where he was bull rushed back into the QBs face last week. That being said he was still clearly the best OLineman that day. No sacks allowed and very few pressures allowed. He's a prow bowl level LT no doubt. Props to Buddy Nix

Thanks...hard to find objective peoples round these parts nowadays

We just need a QB competent enough to break the playoff drought and change the culture. He's our best chance to do that for the next few years. Ideally we groom his successor in the meantime

Those type of pinpoint accuracy issues that limit YAC are what separates the elite Qbs ( Rogers, Brady) with the mid range average QBs.( which we are hoping TT can be) . I don't think many people expect TT to get to that elite level.. and neither do the Bills as the deal they have on the table pays him slightly more than average of starters.

That was a killer. TT has to make that throw.

He has indeed been ok up to this point... doing just enough in pass protect to hold the line. He is actually quite stout at handling power rushers but when you get a guy with speed across from him he can be exposed like he was Sunday. That being said Wake is an elite pass rusher who has embarrassed many RTs. I just wish Mills or the coaches could have made some sort of adjustment to force Wake inside rather than just giving him the edge most times... or at least give Mills some TE or RB help. It was obvious after q1 he was in way over his head.

I only looked at the pass attempts.. so if there was read option then they must have taken the option to keep it and run.

Good point. I think some called screens or shovel passes toward Wake may have helped to take advantage of his aggressiveness.. maybe would have slowed him down a little.

gracias

hah.. I have my helmet on and am ready to take flak

Unforced errors.. bad throws/ How did the O Line do?/ What mistakes are on the O-Line.. what ones are not? I watched the NFL rewind all 22 and here is my unofficial count of how the O-Line did / How the QB did on every pass play (I may have missed a snap or two here or there. There also may be a few extra pass attempts that were cancelled due to penalites..but this should be 95% accurate) Sufficient protection means that TT had time to hit his drop and had at least a second to scan the field. DISCLAIMER (I am not a coach, I don't know the hot reads or route combinations called.. this is just my educated perception of what happened on each pass play) _______ ______________________ TOTAL PASS PLAYS: 40 - (last week was 31 total pass plays for reference) LINE BREAKDOWNS: 12/40 snaps - or 30% of snaps. (last week was 16%. Essentially the line was twice as bad this week as they were last week). In other words TT didn't really have a chance on 30% of his drop backs. Looking back through the history of my doing this analysis.. 30% is the worst breakdown percentage since the 2015 Texans game which was a 28% breakdown rate.. and is the worst percentage I have seen.. which is saying a lot based on some of the O Line train wreck performances from last year. Based on historical data the threshold for average O Line performance has been around a 20% breakdown rate. SUFFICIENT PROTECTION: 28/40 snaps or 70% - (last week was 84%). In other words TT had a relatively clean pocket 70% of the time UNFORCED QB ERRORS: 5/28 snaps or 18% (last week was 12%). Based on my 2015 studies if you have 5 unforced QB errors or less during a game your odds of winning are solid. TT had 5 unforced errors by my count.. so he was right on the borderline. Bottom Line: 1ST HALF PASS PROTECT WAS OK - The O Line held up reasonably well in the 1st half other than Jordan Mills getting beaten a couple of times by Wake 2ND HALF PASS PROTECT WAS SCARY BAD - 10 of the 12 pass protect breakdowns occurred in the 2nd half. There were multiple offenders. Mills continued to struggle, with Miller being the next worst offender. Wood, Incognito and even the usually solid Cordy Glenn all had moments when they struggled with pass protection. . MILLS AND SPEED RUSH - Last week against the 49ers I mentioned how Mills was never really cleanly beaten by his man but he was making me nervous giving up a lot of ground on outside speed rushes. This week it caught up to him. Cameron Wake consistently beat him around the outside with speed rushes and Mills was pretty much a tire fire for most of the day. I'm hoping it's just a one off matchup issue as Wake is a premier talent who can get low and bend around the edge with the best of them. Either way.. I do think the book is out on Mills now unfortunately.. he can be beat with speed. MILLER STRUGGLES IN 2ND HALF - John Miller has been playing exceptionally well this year but last Sunday he was overmatched by Suh on several plays.. and looked somewhat lost or confused on some others. The play below shows him getting beaten by Suh ..forcing a TT scramble. TYROD HAS A COMPLETE GAME.. BUT COMMITS ONE CRITICAL UNFORCED ERROR - Last week I talked about how we were all waiting for a single game where TT puts it all together and displays all the types of throws he is capable of making in one game. This week it all came together. When I say "complete" game I don't mean a perfect game. What I mean by "complete" is a game where TT executes a variety of different throws that illustrate his work towards addressing his issues. Many have criticized him for not attacking the deep middle. There were several examples of him showing great footwork, pocket presence and executing tough intermediate throws over the middle last Sunday in Miami. There are many things to like about this play directly below. TT calmly side stepping right to avoid the pressure coming up the middle from Incognito's man. TT .stepping into the throw.. throwing over top of the safety 47.. throwing deep down the middle of the field in the red zone. This is the type of aggressive throw we need to see more of from TT. Poor footwork, lack of anticipation, not throwing into tight windows, and not utilizing Clay have been legitimate criticisms of TT up to this point. Below is an example where he demonstrates progress on all 4 of these issues in one throw TT has rarely demonstrated a willingness to attempt... or the ability to hit deep seam routes. See the example below of him hitting a deep seam route to Clay. Again.. an example of TT stepping up in a messy pocket.. getting hit.. and making an aggressive completion. The one glaring missing throw type has been the deep sideline "Go" route that he has historically been so good at throwing. Last week he missed Goodwin due to the line not holding up. Not this week. Note Taylor takes a 3 step drop, steps up..hangs tough in the pocket and takes a hit right after delivering the perfect strike to Goodwin. With all the good shown previously TT unfortunately committed an Unforced Error at the worst time. 3rd and short at the Dolphins 40 yd line with 1:04 left in 1st half. If TT executes here the Bills at least get a FG attempt.. at best they get a chance to score a TD and pad the lead at the half. Unfortunately TT just flat out misses this relatively routine slant throw to Goodwin.. no excuses here. Huge missed opportunity on TT's part. SUMMARY - Most of the offensive passing game struggles can be attributed to Jordan Mills having a really... really bad day against Cameron Wake. Couple that with an overall disastrous Q4 for the OLine and you have a situation where 25 points is not enough to win this one. Tyrod had a very solid game with relatively few unforced errors considering they had 40 pass attempts. Unfortunately one of TT's unforced errors came on a crucial 3rd down in Miami territory at the end of the 1st half costing them a likely 3 or more points that they could have used. I come away from this game happy with TT's progress and very nervous about Jordan Mills as he has been slipping the last few weeks. Hopefully Anthony Lynn will know to give Mills some tight end or RB help against future speed rushers. Have faith Bills fans...In my opinion our QB showed much progress against Miami. He's certainly not there yet.. but I think he is very close to performing like the mid level NFL starter we are paying him to be. O Line Pass block grades GLENN - B INCOGNITO - C WOOD - B MILLER - C- MILLS- D- PLAYS OF NOTE Q1: TT executes accurate roll out throw to Hunter Q1: 6:18 - Jordan Mills is beaten around the edge by Wake forcing TT to scramble Q1: 5:48 - UNFORCED ERROR - Delay of game on TT Q1 5:14 - Mills beaten again by Wake.. gives up a sack Q1 :58 - UNFORCED ERROR - Poorly thrown fade route to Hunter Q2: - TT executes nice completion over the deep middle Q2 - UNFORCED ERROR - TT bails out of pocket early and doesn't see open Hunter on hitch route Q2: 3:12 - Excellent intermediate seam pass to Clay Q2: 2:35 - Great execution on timing route fitting ball into tight window between two defenders to Clay Q2: 1:04 - UNFORCED ERROR - TT throws behind Goodwin on critical 3rd down slant Q3 - 6:00 - Bomb to Goodwin.. a thing of beauty Q4 - 15:00 - Incognito beaten to the inside.. TT still makes solid throw with guy in his face Q4: UNFORCED ERROR - Sack.. TT locks onto #1 read too long and takes sack because he doesn't look for other options soon enough Q4 : 8: 02 - Mills blows assignment causing pressure Q4: 3:56 - Mills and Miller allow Suh to get through untouched allowing him to blow up called screen play. Should have at least chipped him Q4: Mills beaten by Wake again Q4: 2:20 - Cordy Glenn is pushed back into TT causing sack Q4 1:43 - Suh blows by John Miller Q4 1:37 - Holding on Jordan Mills Q4 1:05 - Wake breaks through a double team of Mills and Miller and gets pressure Q4: 51 - UNFORCED ERROR - TT doesn't trust protection and throws ball out of back of end zone unnecessarily Q4: - Excellent deep middle throw to Tate at goal line setting up TD

Yes PFF system has it's flaws.. however.. it is at least a systematic way of grading a player's performance. There is a wide gap between the PFF high grade and label of "Another Flawless Performance" and some of the comments made by posters on this board who say that TT had an awful game and that he was the main reason the Bills lost. The answer is somewhere in between there certainly.. but I will trust that is much closer to the PFF grade than then anecdotal emotional grade given by some posters here.

Here are 2 headlines from PFF breakdown .. solid analysis https://www.profootballfocus.com/pro-nfl-buf-mia-grades-outstanding-ajayi-leads-dolphins-to-win/ Quarterback grade: Tyrod Taylor, 84.5 Taylor is his usual self in nearly flawless performance --- Surrounding cast unable to help Taylor Buffalos offensive line had its worst game this season as they struggled both in pass protection and in opening lanes for the running backs. Right tackle Jordan Mills struggled the most in pass protection as he surrendered two sacks and four quarterback hurries.

Were you able to see whether any of his receivers were ooen on any of those double clutch plays? Watching the tv broadcast I know I couldn't really tell. Maybe they were maybe they weren't. I will reserve judgement until I can watch Coaches Film All 22

http://billswire.usatoday.com/2016/10/23/tyrod-taylor-buffalo-bills-miami-dolphins/

That's not factually accurate. O line was horrendous today in pass protect. I am assuming my All 22 review post later in week will confirm