Bocephuz

Pick up TT option, draft Luke Falk and open it up 3 way competition in 2017 http://draftbreakdown.com/players/luke-falk/ IMO Falk is best QB prospect with highest ceiling

Some of you may have seen the analyses I've posted over the last few years looking at O Line Pass Protect / QB Unforced errors.. if you haven't here's an example.. http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/190712-week-15-all-22-review-o-line-qb-unforced-errors/ Here are my O Line Pass Protect Grades for 2016 CORDY GLENN - B (had a handful of games where he wasn 't his normal pro bowl self.. but was generally very solid) CYRUS KOUANDJIO - B ( did a solid job filling in for Glenn when he was hurt in BAL and other games) RICHIE INCOGNITO - B (had a stretch of games earlier in the year where he had trouble recognizing stunts and gave up some pressures.. but has been lights out the last 5 games) ERIC WOOD - B+ ( Wood was very solid this year until he got hurt) RYAN GROY - B+ ( he struggled in the few snaps he took in SEA game but has been outstanding filling in for Wood since) JOHN MILLER - C ( Miller typically gives up 2 bad pressures a game.. he is an average pass protector) JORDAN MILLS - D ( Mills is consistently the worst pass protector week after week. He has certainly been the weak link this year and his poor play has hampered the passing game) At any rate.. I've missed a few games.. but here is the overall data I have based on my watching the All 22 and doing the analysis on 14 games since week 6 2015 Here is the overall data from my various analyses (click to enlarge) The average for this group since week 6 2015 is the line breaking down on 20% of snaps. The baseline for poor qb play (unforced errors) is 5%. As shown below.. there were 8 games where the line graded out average or better than average in pass protect. In 5 of those games.. the QB had more than 5 unforced errors and the Bills lost those games. (granted 2 games were with EJ at the helm). The Bills record was 3 - 5 in these games . Here is the analysis in games which the O line performed below average. TAKEAWAYS • O LINE PASS PROTECT WAS ABOVE AVERAGE MORE OFTEN THAN NOT - In the 14 games I analyzed.. the O Line was average or above average in pass protect 57% of the time. In other words... the line has been solid in pass protect more often than not • • TT ACTUALLY PERFORMED BETTER IN GAMES WHERE O LINE PASS PROTECT WAS BELOW AVERAGE - Interestingly enough. TT has actually generally performed worse in games when he has had better pass protection. This could be for a variety of reasons.. but it tells me he is more comfortable/effective improvising and making plays on the run than he is running and executing the offense in the pocket. This can be looked at as a good thing or a bad thing. To me .. it tells me he has trouble reading defenses and executing the offense. • • O LINE PLAY DOESN'T HAVE A DIRECT CORRELATION WITH WINS/LOSSES - Let's break down the 4 worst rated O Line games. • • 2015 TEXANS - WIN - 28% line breakdown rate - Jordan Mills actually played well but the rest of the line struggled with stunts and Clowney.. TT had a few errant throws that could have been Ints but the D played well and they made enough big plays to escape with a win • • 2016 DOLPHINS - LOSS - 30% line breakdown rate - Mills got toasted by Wake all game and TT was under fire nearly 1 out of every 3 pass plays. This was the worst rated performance I had for them over this period of analysis.TT actually played pretty well this game considering.. avoiding the pressure and helping the Bills stake an early lead. The defense blew this one by letting Jay Ajai run all over them in the 2nd half • • 2016 SEAHAWKS - LOSS - 29% breakdown rate - Mills got toasted by Cliff Avril all game... yet TT managed to escape pressure and arguably have his best game as a Bill. Hard to blame the offense in this one. • • 2016 JAGUARS - WIN - 27% breakdown rate. Much like the Texans game in 2015.. the O line played poorly and TT played poorly as well. It took a late 2nd half comeback to escape with a win here. • • RIGHT TACKLE IS WEAKEST LINK - Jordan Mills is awful.. The rest of the line is average or above average

CK held up pretty well against the Ravens in week 1 when Glenn went out .. and he was also very solid at LT in preseason. It is his natural position.. a position he played in college. I would love to see the Bills experiment in training camp/ preseason Glenn at RT and CK at LT. Also Glenn already got paid LT money.. so it's not like he'll take a future financial hit by moving to RT

If you take the emotion out of it .. then viewing him as the 20th best qb in the league isn't that crazy I pray for the day to cone when I sit through every passing play every week and see aggressive exciting QB play. God willing in the next 3 years it will happen There's the problem with TT in a nutshell. If you scheme to take away his deep ball ( as the last 2teams have done) then you have essentially checkmated him

It is reasonable to concede that WR turnover/ injuries had an impact on the passing game this year. Regarding Clay.. I have seen many examples this year where he is open on deep to intermediate routes and TT either doesn't see him.. or sees him but doesn't pull the trigger to throw to him. One example is the one I posted this week

As Whaley said... QB Purgatory

Thx

Also FYI...I'm debating on whether to release my year end O Line grades now or wait til after week 17 I really don't need to analyze Taylor anymore so maybe I'll just trim down my weekly reviews to o line performance only

Unforced errors.. bad throws/ How did the O Line do?/ What mistakes are on the O-Line.. what ones are not? I watched the NFL rewind all 22 and here is my unofficial count of how the O-Line did / How the QB did on every pass play (I may have missed a snap or two here or there. There also may be a few extra pass attempts that were cancelled due to penalites..but this should be 95% accurate) Sufficient protection means that TT had time to hit his drop and had at least a second to scan the field. DISCLAIMER (I am not a coach, I don't know the hot reads or route combinations called.. this is just my educated perception of what happened on each pass play) _______ ______________________ TOTAL PASS PLAYS: 30 - (last week was 41 for reference) LINE BREAKDOWNS: 6/30 or 20% (last week was 4 /41 or 10% for reference) In other words TT didn't really have a chance on 20% of his drop backs. Based on historical data the threshold for average O Line performance has been around a 20% breakdown rate.. so lets say the O Line was average against the Steelers. They gave up a few pressures ( Bud Dupree terrorized them) but several of the sacks they gave up were on Tyrod. SUFFICIENT PROTECTION: 24/30 or 80% (37/41 snaps or 90% )In other words TT had a relatively clean pocket 80% of the time. UNFORCED QB ERRORS: 7/30 or 29% (last week was 8/37 or 22%) Based on my 2015/16 studies if the Bills' QBs commit 5 unforced QB errors or less during a game their odds of winning are solid. TT had 7 unforced errors by my count..which is well over the danger line. He left some plays on the table and took some unnecessary sacks. BOTTOM LINE CORDY GLENN - it was great to see Cordy back in Pro Bowl form. He gave up zero pressures to my eye and appears to be healthy again. GROY SOLID AGAIN - Ryan Groy has been outstanding filling in for Eric Wood. From what I saw he gave up zero pressures again. INCOGNITO SOLID - This is 5 games in a row of solid Incognito pass protect. JOHN MILLER SHAKY- Miller gave up several pressures against the Steelers. Q1 10:34 - Miller beaten.. gives up sack Q2- Miller gives up another pressure ( Bud Dupree is good) MILLS NOT TIRE FIRE.. BUT- Like Miller.. Mills had trouble with Bud Dupree O LINE PASS BLOCK GRADES CORDY GLENN - A RICHIE INCOGNITO - A RYAN GROY - A JOHN MILLER - D JORDAN MILLS - D TYROD 1st QUARTER MELTDOWN Of the 7 Unforced Errors TT committed.. 4 of them came in the first quarter. These errors were a big reason the Bills found themselves in a hole they could not dig out of. The first drive was not pretty. John Miller gave up a bad sack on the very first play. POOR THROWS Q1 9:17 UNFORCED ERROR 2 plays later TT tries to be too cute with a deep out route to Goodwin and overthrows him TAKING UNECESSARY SACKS q1 5:22 UNFORCED ERROR/ SACK - TT has time initially .. has Clay open in the seam.. apparently doesnt see him and tucks and runs taking a sack Q1 - UNFORCED ERROR/SACK - if TT hangs in the pocket for an extra .5 second and keeps his eyes downfield here he will see Woods coming open on the crossing route. Instead he bails early.. tucks and runs and is sacked. TYROD INTERCEPTIONS - I dont have GIFs for these.. but suffice it to say that neither of the interceptions can be attributed to O Line breakdowns. The q1 INT that bounced off of Woods hands due to TT getting the ball to him late when it should have been there right when Woods came out of his break. The INT in the 2nd half was a case of TT misreading the defense and thinking they were in man when they were in zone. TYROD POSITIVES - One nice trend that weve seen over the past few weeks is TT starting to use the middle of the field more. By my count 7 of his 30 pass attempts were targeting the middle of the field. He executed several tight window well timed over the middle passes against the Steelers. Q2 - nicely executed slant throw to Sammy for the TD Q2 4:12 Nice timing throw on the in route to Sammy q2 3:47 nice throw to Clay over the middle in tight window GAME SUMMARY The o line certainly has had better days (Bud Dupree was a monster) .. and several of TTs receivers let him down with drops (Watkins, Clay).. but at the end of the day.. for the second week in a row the majority of the blame for a sputtering passing attack lays at #5s feet. __ _____ TYROD SEASON SUMMARY - So .. here we are..14 weeks into the season with a reasonable body of work to judge TT on. POSITIVES - QUICK GAME PROGESS FLASHES - At times this year Tyrod has been able to show progress on the areas he was most criticized for in 2015. There were several games where he demonstrated the ability to execute the quick game.. as well as attack the short/intermediate middle area of the field( Patriots 1st game, Seahawks, Raiders, Steelers). However.. there were also many games where he failed to execute on these types of throws. The good news is that he is capable of executing these types of throws. The bad news is that it is unclear whether or not he has the mental makeup/ capacity to execute them on a consistent basis DEEP BALL Tyrod is still deadly throwing the deep ball. Unfortunately.. teams have recognized this (particularly the last few weeks) and he hasnt had many opportunities to take shots lately. MOBILITY - TTs mobility can be a blessing and a curse.. but at the end of the day his ability to scramble, buy time and run if necessary (when properly implemented) can be an asset RED ZONE - To my eye TT actually made some nice aggressive tight window throws in the end zone this year. NEGATIVES POCKET PRESENCE - Quite often TT hurts his team by bailing out of pocket too early when an extra half second and keeping his eyes downfield would allow his receivers to complete their routes and be available. This deficiency has led to many sacks and missed opportunities FOOTWORK - For the most part.. TTs footwork has been sloppy. There were very few examples of him hitting his drop and getting rid of the ball in a smooth manner. TOO CONSERVATIVE - There have been times when TT actually has hung in the pocket for that extra half second.. has seen a receiver open .. and has decided not to pull the trigger because the window is too tight. This is his biggest hurdle to overcome in my opinion ANTICIPATION While he has shown flashes of improving his timing and anticipation in the quick game.. his timing and anticipation on intermediary routes leaves much to be desired. This deficiency may be tied to the previous point about him being too conservative and not having enough faith in his receivers to make a play if he throws it into tight windows. MY TYROD CONCLUSION o I dont think weve seen his ceiling.. but we are pretty close to seeing it. I can see that he has been working on some things. .and we've seen flashes where he's overcome some of these obstacles. I have no doubt that he is working hard to fix things. However.. I think at this point..as far as a developmental prospect he pretty much is what he is. I If we pick up the option it wont be that horrible to me as paying him to be the 20th best QB in the league is probably about right where he fits in. It is unlikely that we can find someone else through free agency or trade that will be better in 2017. That being said.. if we dont pick up the option in 2017 I wont be that angry. o Either way.. .after what I have seen from Tyrod the last few years doing these analyses I see too many flaws in his game to make me believe that he will ever develop into a consistent NFL pocket QB who can execute many different facets of a gameplan. He has had generally solid O Line pass protect for his time here and has done little with it. Accordingly.regardless of whether the Bills decide to pick up his option in 2017 I am now of the opinion that they should draft a QB in the first 3 rounds come hell or high water

Yes.. I mentioned that earlier in my thread. I don't know what their methodology is in regards to what qualifies as a "pressure" .. but based on their numbers I would venture that their qualifications as to what qualifies as a "qb pressure" are much more lenient than mine. My methodology is very straight forward... SUFFICENT PROTECTION - QB hits his drop ( 3 step, 5 step.. whatever) and has 1 second to scan his reads QB PRESSURE/ LINE BREAKDOWN - QB hits his drop and has less than 1 second to scan his reads There are many plays where he hits his drop and then overreacts to pressure and prematurely scrambles out of the pocket ..( ie.. he could slide step to avoid, stay in the pocket and buy himself a second but he doesn't) and then is subsequently under pressure that he created himself that was not necessarily caused by the O Line. I wonder how PFF views these plays? Just because a QB is under duress on a pass play doesn't mean that the duress should always be attributed to the O Line What I can say with confidence is that I've watched and analyzed O line play on All 22 for every passing snap of the majority of Bills games for 2015 and 2016.. and I can confidently say that the O Line performed very well in pass protect against the Raiders last Sunday

There are occasions where he climbs the pocket and drives off his back foot ( bomb to Sammy against Jags comes to mind) but they are rare. I think if he learned to chop his feet Manning style that would help his pocket navigation and help him be in a better position to execute throws in a moving pocket. I seem to recall EJ was starting to incorporate that into his game.. so think it is a trait that can be learned Unfortunately.. with every passing week thst goes by TT's bad habits seem to become more and more ingrained

As a side note.. I just read an article from PFF saying he was under "pressure" 46% of pass plays. I'm curious to see what their methodology for pressure is. My threshold is quite simply.. if he hits his drop and has a second to scan the field before having to move .. then that is not a "pressure"

Maybe the LB is his responsibility.. .but how does he counter having an unblocked LB between he and the receiver? Pump fake.. tuck and run?? Just curious..

Unforced errors.. bad throws/ How did the O Line do?/ What mistakes are on the O-Line.. what ones are not? I watched the NFL rewind all 22 and here is my unofficial count of how the O-Line did / How the QB did on every pass play (I may have missed a snap or two here or there. There also may be a few extra pass attempts that were cancelled due to penalites..but this should be 95% accurate) Sufficient protection means that TT had time to hit his drop and had at least a second to scan the field. DISCLAIMER (I am not a coach, I don't know the hot reads or route combinations called.. this is just my educated perception of what happened on each pass play) _______ ______________________ TOTAL PASS PLAYS: 41 - (last week was 22 for reference) LINE BREAKDOWNS: 4 /41 or 10% (last week was 6/22 or 27% of snaps for reference) In other words TT didn't really have a chance on 10% of his drop backs. Based on historical data the threshold for average O Line performance has been around a 20% breakdown rate. 10% is an EXCELLENT number. The O Line had their best game in pass protect since I have been doing this analysis week 6 2015 season. Of the 3 sacks I counted.. 1 appeared to be a coverage sack.. 1 was on TT . .and the other was a tackle at the LOS. SUFFICIENT PROTECTION: 37/41 snaps or 90% (last week 16/22 or 73%). In other words TT had a relatively clean pocket 90% of the time. Again.. the O Line did a tremendous job in pass protect UNFORCED QB ERRORS: 8/37 or 22% (last week was 5/16 snaps or 31%) Based on my 2015/16 studies if the Bills' QBs commit 5 unforced QB errors or less during a game their odds of winning are solid. TT had 8 unforced errors by my count..which is well over the danger line. He left some big plays on the table several times last Sunday. BOTTOM LINE GROY SOLID AGAIN - Ryan Groy has been outstanding filling in for Eric Wood. From what I saw he gave up zero pressures.. and he also did a really nice job identifying and picking up a stunt in Q4 to buy TT a second or two. INCOGNITO SOLID - This is 4 games in a row of solid Incognito pass protect. He had a holding penalty.. but it was well after he initially held up well in pass protect on that play. JOHN MILLER - Miller gave up one obvious pressure to my eye.. but otherwise was solid until he got knocked out of the game PATRICK LEWIS - Lewis filled in admirably for Miller. He was pushed back into the pocket a few times but I did not see him give up and obvious pressures. MILLS RALLIES - Considering Jordan Mills faced Kalil Mack for a good part of the day.. he held up relatively well. By my count he was only cleanly beaten twice by Mack. I can't really fault him on the interception play where Mack gets his hand on the ball.. TT was simply holding the ball too long in his own end zone. q4 4:25 - In my opinion.. this INT is on TT. Mills drives Mack just far back and wide enough to buy TT a second.. but TT is locked onto Goodwin.. doesn't see open O'Leary right in front of him.. and the half second he delays waiting for Goodwin to break free (who is jammed up on his release) allows Mack to tip the ball and cause INT. TT needs better situational awareness here.. not the right time to be trying to throw a 50 yd go route. O LINE PASS BLOCK GRADES CORDY GLENN - B- RICHIE INCOGNITO - B+ RYAN GROY - A JOHN MILLER - B PATRICK LEWIS - B JORDAN MILLS - C TYROD - TALE OF TWO HALVES First of all .. I want to reiterate.. the offensive line did not have a true breakdown in pass protect until halfway through the 3rd quarter.. so again kudos to the O Line. If one is looking to assign blame as to why the passing attack sputtered in the 2nd half.. one would not assign the majority of the blame to the O Line. 1st HALF - Tyrod came out and confidently attacked the Oakland D in the 1st half. In general.. he was in rhythm .. hitting his drop and getting the ball out of his hands to his receivers for most of the 1st half. There were several nicely timed anticipatory come back throws. Tyrod also took several chances over the intermediate middle.. completing several tight window throws q1 2:40 - This is an example of TT being aggressive .. trusting his receiver .. and fitting ball into a tight window in the middle of the field.. between 3 defenders. Gillislee also does an excellent job of picking up the blitzer here 2ND HALF TT's performance in the second half lacked any of the rhythm he had in the 1st half.. and was marred by missed opportunities, miscommunications and errant throws. MISSED OPPORTUNITIES - There were several instances where if Taylor could have just hung in the pocket a half second longer and kept his eyes downfield (assuming he could see over his linemen) he could have attempted throws to open receivers in the deep middle of the field. Q3 12:42 - UNFORCED ERROR - Play action freezes LB for a second .. allowing O'Leary to get past him. Also.. the deep safety has his hips turned toward the upper right side of the field. I'm guessing O'Leary is a primary read here as the play action has done it's job.. sucking the LB in. TT seems to take his eyes off O'Leary a split second before it is obvious he is open. and instead locks onto Goodwin running the go route. TT then basically throws it away in Goodwin's direction. This play is very frustrating to me.. I've seen Kirk Cousins attempt and make this kind of throw down the seam to Jordan Reed many times. For some reason.. TT just doesn't pull the trigger here.. q4 13:36 - Here's another example where O'Leary is open deep.. but TT bails from the pocket a half second to early and doesn't pull the trigger MISCOMMUNICATION - There were several plays where it was clear TT and his WRs were not on the same page. q1 11:49 - Looks like TT is expecting Hunter to run a crossing route here.. but Hunter drifts his route more into a post route than a sharp crossing route. Result .. incompletion. Someone did not execute the design of the play here.. based on the sloppy route Hunter ran. .I would guess it was him. q3 11:23 - Heres another example of miscommunication. TT thinks Sammy is running a slant and gets the ball out quickly accordingly.. Sammy appears to be running a different route .. cutting off the slant route and going to the outside ( slug go maybe).. At any rate.. what you have here is an incompletion due to miscommunication ERRANT THROWS This first example actually shows a throw that I thought was an unforced error watching in real time.. but the end zone view clearly shows an unblocked # 51 in TTs face altering the throw.. making it a forced error. Q4 4:25 - This example is the play that is the real killer .. and probably the biggest reason why people are mad at TT right now. Mills holds up against a Mack bull rush.. TT has a clean pocket.. but he commits an unforced error and just overthrows Watkins. If he puts some touch on this and leads Watkins to the outside shoulder away from the safety here.. it is 6 points. Q4 : 15:00 - This is the play where TT appeared to have made a unnecessarily high throw to a double covered Watkins.. hanging him out to dry and resulting in an incompletion. On second look .. the CB #29 makes a really nice play here to break it up. #29 sees the ball is coming to Watkins behind him. .and he breaks off of his coverage on Goodwin to double back and break this play up. If Amerson doesnt make this heads up play it is likely a completion to Watkins SUMMARY - 8 unforced QB errors for this game ties the highest he had back in 2015 Texans game. Granted.. there were multiple instances of miscommunication which are most likely not Taylor's fault.. Granted .. several of what appeared to be Unforced Errors watching the game live.. actually appeared to have been "Forced Errors" or good plays by the D. However.. the bottom line is that the O Line was very solid in pass protect..and the WRs consistently got separation in this game.. so the majority of the blame falls at TT's feet. His performance was certainly not all bad this game.. however.. there is a recurring theme here of him not hanging in the pocket for an extra second to let plays develop when he has protection.. and these missed big plays/ opportunities are really hurting the team. I think he has a chance to redeem himself against Pittsburgh next week.. but if he continues to be impatient, does not see.. or worse yet..sees but doesn't pull the trigger on these types of opportunities then I think the Bills will seriously start to question on whether or not to pick up his option. PLAYS OF NOTE Q1 11:49 - Looks like TT is expecting crossing route.. Hunter runs post route.. incomplete q1 11:10 - TT throws nice rhythm comeback to Watkins q1 10:25 - TT steps into pocket.. completes nice crossing route to Hunter q1 8:51 - UNFORCED ERROR - SACK - Gillislee does just enough to delay 51 on the blitz.. Goodwin is open on a slant for TD but TT tucks and runs and takes a sack q1 3:50 - nice 3 step drop timing throw to Christian q1 2:40 - excellent tight window throw over middle to Tate q2 - 8:45- Coverage Sack q2 - 2:17 - UNFORCED ERROR - Delay of Game on Taylor q3 12:43 - UNFORCED ERROR - TT doesn't see O'Leary open on deep post route q3 11:23 - Miscommunication with Sammy on slant route q3 10:15 - Nice throw over the middle to Sammy q3 4:13 - Incomplete flat pass to Sammy on 3rd and 4.. #51 im TT's face q3 :57- ball hits Sammy in the hands but not caught q3 :17 - FALSE START - Cordy Glenn q4 - 15:00 - CB breaks up sideline pass to Watkins q4 13:36 - UNFORCED ERROR - Good protection.. TT doesn't see O'Leary open deep on crossing route.. bails early q4 13:25 - Mills is driven back into pocket by Mack .. causing incompletion q4 10:53 - UNFORCED ERROR - INTERCEPTION - TT holds on to the ball too long in the end zone allowing Mack to deflect ball causing INT q4 8:34 - Glenn beaten to the outside causing high throw on screen to McCoy q4 6:31 - SACK - TT makes good decision to run.. but is tackled at LOS .. technically a sack q4 5:36 - UNFORCED ERROR - poor throw to open O'Leary in the flat q4 457 - Groy does excellent job picking up stunt by DE q4 4:25 - UNFORCED ERROR - TT overthrows Watkins near goaline/ sideline q4 3:29 - FUMBLE - Mills gets beaten by Mack who causes fumble q4:10 - UNFORCED ERROR - throw behind Hunter

He's definitely tough..he's taken some hellacious hits running near the goal line and has popped back up every time. However.. there are times like the missed O'Leary throw where he is in the pocket and releases a little early due to pressure and he is off target. I think these episodes are more due to nerves/ confidence than toughness

Yeah.. From what I saw there were very few stunts, blitzes or exotic coverages. ..they just have really good athletes and they turned em loose. Both their DEs were very effective. Thanks..

👍

Something isn't quite right

Mills' performance was indeed poor. The coverage sacks are subjective and lend themselves open to debate. His pocket presence is still often skittish. At the very least most would agree there are no obvious targets open on those plays and that the WRs are not getting mich separation on those plays

👍 Jags D was very disciplined and effective. Lucky for us their O had a couple of big drops and we dodged that PI penalty on Gilmore at the end of the game

Unforced errors.. bad throws/ How did the O Line do?/ What mistakes are on the O-Line.. what ones are not? I watched the NFL rewind all 22 and here is my unofficial count of how the O-Line did / How the QB did on every pass play (I may have missed a snap or two here or there. There also may be a few extra pass attempts that were cancelled due to penalites..but this should be 95% accurate) Sufficient protection means that TT had time to hit his drop and had at least a second to scan the field. DISCLAIMER (I am not a coach, I don't know the hot reads or route combinations called.. this is just my educated perception of what happened on each pass play) _______ ______________________ TOTAL PASS PLAYS: 22 - (last week was 29 for reference) LINE BREAKDOWNS: 6/22 or 27% (last week was 5 / 29 or 17% of snaps for reference) In other words TT didn't really have a chance on 27% of his drop backs. Based on historical data the threshold for average O Line performance has been around a 20% breakdown rate. 27% is a bad number. The O Line (particularly the tackles) played poorly against the Jags SUFFICIENT PROTECTION: 16/22 or 73% (last week 24 / 29 snaps or 83%). In other words TT had a relatively clean pocket 73% of the time. UNFORCED QB ERRORS: 5/16 snaps or 31% (last week was 5/24 snaps or 21%) Based on my 2015/16 studies if the Bills' QBs commit 5 unforced QB errors or less during a game their odds of winning are solid. TT had 5 unforced errors by my count..which is right on the "DANGER" line. I almost gave him 6 .. however I changed my mind on one (see later below) BOTTOM LINE GROY SOLID AGAIN - For the second week in a row I really didn't notice Ryan Groy at all watching this tape.. which is a very good thing. He acquitted himself very well against the Jags. He's been a nice surprise filling in for Woods INCOGNITO A STUD - Richie slipped a bit in pass protect early in the year.. but he's really rebounded the last 2 games. I did not see him contribute to any QB pressures. JOHN MILLER - other than one obvious pressure he gave up.. Miller was generally solid this game MILLS STICKS OUT AGAIN - Mills quite simply cannot handle speed rushers well at all. Of the 6 O Line pass protect breakdowns he contributed to 3 of them. He also threw in a false start for good measure. A Lynn better have a plan to help him with Mack next week or it will be ugly. q2 10:33 - Mills beaten to the outside forcing TT to scramble another play where Mills gives up pressure.. he just whiffs here.. - GLENN STRUGGLES AGAIN - The normally steady Cordy Glenn has now had 2 bad weeks in a row. Of the 6 O line pass protect breakdowns he contributed to 3 as well (just as many errors as Mills had). He had a particularly bad series in Q1 with back to back pressures given up q2 3:24 - Glenn beaten to the outside.. TT is looking deep but due to pass rush has to check down short q2 3;18 - Ngayoue beats Glenn on the outside with a speed rush .. sacks TT and almost causes a fumble TYROD HOLDING THE BALL.. WHAT REALLY CAUSED IT? - Watching in real time it was maddening to see several plays where the O Line was holding up yet TT was not pulling the trigger on throws. Some of these plays led to sacks. Was it his WRs not getting separation? Was it TT being too conservative? Were some of these coverage sacks? In short.. to my eye 3 of the situations where he was patting the ball and not pulling the trigger were legitimate coverage sacks where there were no good options for TT to throw to. Jacksonville rarely blitzed and they were dropping their LBs and Safeties deep on many plays. q1 7:04 - COVERAGE SACK - TT hits his drop but no one is remotely open... leads to coverage sack. This play is a bit of a tire fire q2 4:48 - COVERAGE SACK - TT has a time and is looking deep for Watkins.. however. coverage is solid and the safety is lurking. He has a small window of time to dump off to O'Leary here.. but I am ok with him tucking and running here TT also hurt himself a few times with unforced errors Q2 1:214 UNFORCED ERROR - TT feels pressure coming from his right causing bad/ rushed mechanics and an overthrow to an open O'Leary in the end zone. TT needs to stay in the pocket.. deliver and take the hit on this one but he doesn't. q2 3:27 UNFORCED ERROR - Relatively clean pocket..TT is looking right at the WR at the bottom of the screen who is about to come open on a deep comeback.. but for some reason he checks down to the RB Here's one where I initially gave him an Unforced Error grade.. but then rescinded it after further review. Interested to hear what others have to say on this one Q3 8:47 - TT has time.. both wideouts at top and bottom of the screen are running deep comebacks. Upon first blush I could not figure out why he didn't pull the trigger on either of these. On second look.. the LBs and safety don't bite on the play fake and I did see that the LBs seemed to have been clogging both passing lanes DEEP BALL Q3 4:34 - When Tyrod knows where he wants to go and is decisive he can be deadly. We've seen this throw many times.. but what we haven't always seen his TT looking off the safety.. making him turn his hips.. and then letting it rip as soon as he sees the S bite. O Line Pass block grades GLENN – C- INCOGNITO - A GROY - A MILLER - C+ MILLS- C- SUMMARY - Overall.. the O line gave up too many pressures today.. foiling many of the deep attempts The Bills were trying to execute. This was due mostly to poor play by both tackles. We all know that Jordan Mills is not a starting caliber RT .. however.. it is somewhat scary that Cordy Glenn has had two bad weeks in a row. With that being said.. TT was right on the borderline of having too many unforced errors himself. He redeemed himself with two aggressive throws to Watkins deep.. and then the TD to Hunter but he left a fair amount of plays on the table against the Jags. In short.. The Bills offense was generally out of rhythm most of the game and the blame can be laid across the board. Here are my takeaways summarized UNDER 30 PASS ATTEMPTS - BILLS WIN AGAIN - NO SEPARATION/ COVERAGE SACKS - Contrary to my assumption watching the game live..several of the maddening sequences where TT was not pulling the trigger were indeed due to tight coverage or the WRs getting no separation.. and not necessarily on him being too cautious TT MAKES PROGRESS ON HITCH THROWS - TT has improved his quick timing/ hitch game when called to execute it. Interestingly enough.. I did not see any slant routes attempted or executed. TT STILL MAKES SAME MISTAKES - On the down side .. TT still occasionally stares down receivers ( see the q2 1:11 play where he stares down Powell on the out route putting him in a bad position where the CB blows him up and hurts his ankle). He also is somewhat hesitant to stay in the pocket and take the tough hit and deliver ( see overthrow to O'Leary in endzone) TT STILL MAKES BIG PLAYS.. TAKES CARE OF THE BALL - at the end of the day TT was aggressive enough on several plays to overcome his cautiousness during most of the game. It was enough to win.. but relying on boom or bust big plays will catch up with them sooner or later if they don't start to develop more of a consistent rhythm on offense going forward. PLAYS OF NOTE Q1 7:39 – Nice footwork, timing hitch throw to Clay Q1 7:04 – COVERAGE SACK Q1 3:24 – Glenn beaten to the outside.. TT seems to be looking deep but has to bail and throw short due to pressure Q1 3:18 – SACK – Glenn is beaten again to the outside and gives up a sack Q2 13:30 – TT proactively runs on 3rd and 3 for first down. Appears to be smart decision Q2 11: 18 – Miller gives up pressure and TT is sacked. He is clearly looking to go deep here but there is not enough time q2 10:34 - False start on Mills q2 10:33 - Mills beaten to the outside.. TT has to scramble q2 538 - Nice footwork, TT hits drop and throws nice hitch to Goodwin on time q2 448 - COVERAGE SACK - TT has time.. looking deep for Watkins but good coverage by CB and the safety is lurking so he tucks and runs q2 327 - UNFORCED ERROR - relatively clean pocket.. but TT makes poor choice and checks down to Williams when he has WR open on deep comeback q2 124 - UNFORCED ERROR - TT overthrows open O'Leary in endzone q2 1:11 - UNFORCED ERROR - TT stares down Powell .. setting him up to get injured on short out route q3 - 8:00 - COVERAGE SACK Q3 4:34 - BEAUTIFUL DEEP BALL TO SAMMY!! Q4 14:08 - Both Glenn and Mills beaten causing TT to drop of to McCoy who makes great play q4 13:37 - UNFORCED ERROR - TT throws wide to Goodwin q4 - TD to Hunter - solid aggressive throw q4 UNFORCED ERROR - has time.. throws behind Clay q4 Nice timing completion to Clay for 1st down to help ice the game Edited by Bocephuz, 22 November 2016 - 09:51 PM.

A Lynn definitely needs to gameplan to help Mills out. It should be the prime directive this week. I haven't watched the all 22 yet.. but I know from watching in real time that Mills had an awful first half. It will be interesting to see if his better play in the 2nd half was due to A Lynn shifting help ( Rbs, TEs) his way or if he just rallied himself. Scary thing is.. Glenn appeared to have an awful first half as well ... methinks the injuries he's dealing with are having a big impact on his play.

Thank you. I don't claim my methodology to be perfect.. but I do claim that I try as hard as I can to be objective My plays of note are just that.. plays of note. I don't have the time or capacity to write notes on every single passing down. I can assure you that I did however wstch every pass play and grade it either "sufficient " protection or "breakdown ". In general if the OL is doing a solid job I don't feel that it is worth writing as a 'play of note'. Also if TT completes a standard 5 yard hitch .. I don't see any value in writing a note about it As far a gifs go.. My intent was not to pick on Glenn.. but rather to show several potential deep plays where poor O line play affected the ability of the QB to deliver the throw... both of which happened to be on Glenn

Yes.. that was scary.

Unforced errors.. bad throws/ How did the O Line do?/ What mistakes are on the O-Line.. what ones are not? I watched the NFL rewind all 22 and here is my unofficial count of how the O-Line did / How the QB did on every pass play (I may have missed a snap or two here or there. There also may be a few extra pass attempts that were cancelled due to penalites..but this should be 95% accurate) Sufficient protection means that TT had time to hit his drop and had at least a second to scan the field. DISCLAIMER (I am not a coach, I don't know the hot reads or route combinations called.. this is just my educated perception of what happened on each pass play) _______ ______________________ TOTAL PASS PLAYS: 29 - (last week was 42 for reference) LINE BREAKDOWNS: 5 / 29 or 17% ( last week was 12/42 or 29% of snaps for reference) In other words TT didn't really have a chance on 17% of his drop backs. Based on historical data the threshold for average O Line performance has been around a 20% breakdown rate. 17% is a solid number.. the O Line was solid last Sunday. SUFFICIENT PROTECTION: 24 / 29 snaps or 83% (last week 30/42 snaps or 71%). In other words TT had a relatively clean pocket 83% of the time UNFORCED QB ERRORS: 5/24 snaps or 21% (last week was 2/30 snaps or 7%) Based on my 2015/16 studies if the Bills' QBs commit 5 unforced QB errors or less during a game their odds of winning are solid. TT had 5 unforced errors by my count..which is right on the "DANGER" line. Similar to last week.. 3 of these errors came early in the game in the 1st quarter. Bottom Line: GROY VERY SOLID - I really didn't notice Ryan Groy at all watching this tape.. which is a very good thing. He acquitted himself very well against the Bengals. MILLS NOT PERFECT.. BUT HAS A SOLID REBOUND PERFORMANCE - It appeared to me that Jordan Mills took the majority of snaps at RT this game. Henderson was sprinkled in for a few plays.. and I don't recall seeing Kujo get in the game at all. Mills acquitted himself quite nicely in pass protect.. the only error I saw him make was a false start. Hopefully #79 can use this game as a springboard to get back to where he was late last year and early this year. HENDERSON STRUGGLES IN RETURN TO ACTION - I don't have an exact count.. but Henderson got a fair chunk of playing time. I think he and Mills may have rotated quarters ( Mills 1st and 3rd qtr? - Henderson 2nd and 4th??). First of all.. let's give him credit for fighting off the Crohn's disease and getting himself back on the field. Now.. let's have an honest evaluation. He struggled on several plays in pass protect as shown below - q2 : 55 - Henderson's man beats him to the outside.. forcing TT flush out of the pocket. Once TT is flushed.. he himself makes an awful decision to force a ball to Goodwin in the end zone and he is picked off. At the end of the day.. if Henderson doesn't get beat then TT is not in that position to make that bad decision q4: 13:39 - Henderson beaten to the inside.. TT flushed. .. but this time he improvises and makes a great decision/ throw to Goodwin to make something out of nothing CORDY GLENN GIVES UP SOME PRESSURES - The normally reliable #77 had a few gaffes in pass protect against Cincy. He was beaten twice in Q3.. and both times the pressures he gave up ruined potential deep ball opportunities. Q3 6:42 - Glenn IS beaten to outside.. TT is flushed.. can't get his feet set properly and he overthrows Clay deep. If pressure isn't in his face he most likely hits this pass q3 3:57 - Glenn is beaten to the inside this time... TT seems to be looking for Woods deep on the bottom of the screen but the pressure from Glenn's man forces him to bail and not attempt the throw There were times when TT had time to throw and he missed opportunities as well TYROD MISSES BIG OPPORTUNITIES EARLY... Q1 12:39 - Decent protection.. TT doesn't throw to Woods who is past the safety at the bottom of the screen on the go route Q1 11:38 - Good protection.. TT either doesn't see Clay..or doesn't feel confident enough to throw to him on the deep post route. This is a pretty standard cover 2 beater throw he should be able to identify and make O Line Pass block grades GLENN - C INCOGNITO - A- GROY - A MILLER - C+ MILLS- B HENDERSON - C- SUMMARY - Overall.. the O Line was solid enough today.. The interior play was very solid. Ryan Groy really held his own. The only guard who had a few bad plays was John Miller. The tackles gave up a few pressures each that were costly.. however. .for the most part TT had fairly clean pockets to throw from. Accordingly the blame for another sub 200 yd passing game falls mostly on the receivers not getting separation as well as on TT for leaving a few big plays on the table early in game. When I watched this game in real time my assumption was that the line was holding up fairly well and that TT had time to throw on most plays. I wanted to dig deeper on the all 22 and see why he was holding the ball so long and not attempting many intermediate or deep throws. What I saw were several things. UNNECESSARY CHECKDOWNS - In the first quarter.. as shown above.. there were multiple opportunities where TT had a relatively clean pocket, had guys open down the field. and for whatever reason he decided to be safe and check down. NO SEPARATION - other than those opportunities in Q1.. there were a fair amount of downs where TT had time but the receivers were legitimately not getting any separation. Especially after Woods went out. LINE BREAKDOWNS - also as shown above.. there were a couple of critical OL breakdowns that prevented TT from attempting deep ball throws to open receivers TYROD MISSES EARLY OPPORTUNITIES.. BAD IN RED ZONE. TT was sloppy today.. especially in the red zone (the really bad interception on a forced throw to Goodwin... also another bad out route in the red zone that could have gone for a pick six if the db didn't drop it). He didn't really have any "wow" throws like he did in Seattle. This sloppiness is very much out of character for him. What's worse is that the balls that were forced were late/ desperate throws. I can live with interceptions if they come from being aggressive and throwing into tight windows on time.. but these late un-smart forced throws are completely indefensible. PLAYS OF NOTE q1 - 12:39 - UNFORCED ERROR - decent protection but doesn't see Woods open on Go route Q1 11:38 - UNFORCED ERROR - good protection... doesn't pull the trigger on open post route to play and checks down q1 2:28 - UNFORCED ERROR - forces ball to Woods in red zone that should have been picked off q1 1:16 - SACK - coverage sack q2 2:05 - TT hits excellent out route to Tate with DL in his face q2 .55- Henderson is beaten to the outside and forces TT to flush .. TT then makes bad decision and throws INT in red zone q3 6:42 - Glenn beaten to the outside.. TT flushed and over throws Clay on Flag route q3 3:57 - Glenn beaten to the inside .. TT flushed and misses opportunity to go deep on go route q3 2:12 _ Mills false start q3 1:58 - TT climbs pocket and does excellent job finding Tate over the middle q3 :36- Miller's man beats him and TT is flushed from the pocket q4 13:39 - Henderson beaten to the inside and TT flushed but still makes nice throw to Goodwin Q4 12;11 - UNFORCED ERROR - TT telegraphs an out route to Gillislee in the red zone and almost throws a pick six q4 2:41 - Missed throw to Harvin. Upon further review.. Harvin appeared to have run a poor route. TT was expected him to cut his out route at a 90 degree sharp angle and Harvin made a sloppy 65% cut.