BarleyNY

Agreed. I expect this to be the way it plays out. The decision gets a lot more difficult if he doesn’t get top of the market money.

You are confusing team that get immediate production from early picks with teams that reach to fill needs and have to start those rookies.

Again, I’m speaking to teams that rely on the draft to fulfill IMMEDIATE needs.

I think you are looking at the real draft the way fans look at interactive mock drafts. Prospects don’t stack neatly like that in real life. Rarely is there one player sticking out on a team’s board. Usually a group of similarly rated players at different positions to chose from. Easy to take one where there’s a bigger need. Teams that force picks to fill immediate needs are the ones that you see reaching for that. Good teams do consider need, but it is more long term and they put themselves into position to take better talent and more impactful players.

While that was also my first guess on the situation, looking at his contract I do not think that’s it. He got a $10.5M SB in 2020 and the low salary years are behind him. I doubt the Dolphins could get back any money anyway. And it’s only $4.2M at stake anyway. Not that clearly stating that injuries are the issue isn’t the smart move by him. He played three years of his five year contract. Link

It helps when those players are good enough to get onto the field. The Bills moved on from many of the high priced DL and replaced them with draft picks. They spent much of that savings on Von Miller. The seemed forced to me. They went into those drafts knowing they were taking DL early and often and they forced some of those picks rather than going with better prospects. Ditto with Elam.

There’s a huge difference between: - having to take players at certain positions to fill immediate needs and - having at least a serviceable player ahead of those players In the former, teams are stuck reaching in the draft and then playing rookies with the hopes they work out. In the latter, the rookies have to earn their way on the field. It doesn’t mean they sit for years on their rookie deals, but the team doesn’t have to depend on them immediately. I think your last paragraph is correct. Moving around the draft to find value is smart. Also there are usually similarly rated players at different positions so need can be considered. But if a team used FA to eliminate positions of desperate need they put themselves in position to take advantage of values in the draft when they fall to them.

Probably not. But I guarantee that they don’t look at situations like you described so simply. The odds that there wouldn’t be similarly rated players at different positions in the second round is very, very low. And if it was the case that a C was far and away the best player on the board they’d likely trade out for value. Later in the draft they’d take one as depth, especially if that player could also play OG and had upside.

The best teams do not put themselves in a position where they have to fill immediate needs via the draft. I think quality FOs would look at your center situation with more nuance. Say that center is sticking out on the team’s board on day 2. What’s the whole situation? How much is the All-Pro C making? How close to the end of his career is he? Can he be moved for a pick. Do other teams rate the C similarly? If so, some would be probably trade up to get him and you could leverage that into good trade value. Can the C play OG, even for a season? So maybe the best move is to take that C, let him compete at OG his first season. The following season he can step in at C and the team can trade their All-Pro C to save cap space and get some picks or a player back.

There has already been a huge shift in the attitudes of the fans. Excitement and belief that last year was our year has turned to disappointment and concern. Even if everyone hasn’t made that pivot, most seem to have. I don’t know how badly the Bills would have to perform in 2023 for McDermott and Beane to lose their jobs, but that’s now a conversation. Fans aren’t even considering the possibilities that Florio and Simms are. What if we miss the playoffs? What if that happens because the OL is largely ignored again and some lineman who shouldn’t even be on the field blows an assignment and gets Allen injured? A lot depends on how this off-season, season and playoffs pan out.

FA is for need, the draft is for long term team building. Teams that draft for need do so at their own peril.

While it could’ve been stated more civilly, @Dopey is 100% correct. Jackson would’ve been risking upwards of 9 figures by playing. Any sane agent or advisor would have told him to sit. Certainly there are always people who do not act rationally because of emotion or other reasons, but in this case those would have been rare exceptions. The Ravens knew that the scenario they found themselves in was a possibility and they still didn’t think Lamar was worth what he was asking. Sometimes when both sides make business decisions it plays out like this.

It seemed like the Texans and league didn’t want him playing that season either.

No pouting. The Texans were not going to put Watson on the field in 2021. Him sitting but getting fully paid for the season was a negotiated settlement between him and the Texans - and blessed by the league. He wanted to play, but not for the Texans.

Yeah. I don’t blame Lamar for wanting to get all he can and I don’t blame the Ravens for not giving him what he’s asking for.

If this is Lamar’s strategy to get out of the AFC and onto an NFC team, then color me impressed. He’ll get paid and be a top QB in his conference. As for an AFC GM taking the chance on trading for him, there’s always a few who need a QB and know they’ll get fired soon if the team doesn’t take a step forward. If it doesn’t work someone else will have to clean up the mess anyway.

I love his telescope.

He doesn’t have to. He just has to wait until right before the first game to sign the tag. The Ravens have a new OC and are going to implement a new offense. He won’t be there to learn the new offense or work with the rest of the offensive players getting it down. That would be a huge setback for the season. I think it’ll be a tag and trade situation.

I agree that some team will pay him, but I fully expect the exclusive franchise tag. The Ravens would be foolish (read: stupid) to invite a team like the Giants (26th pick) or any of the QB needy teams picking between 13 and 20 to pay him. The Giants could waltz up and sign him to a 5 year, $235M fully guaranteed contract. Then what do the Ravens do? They either have to assume that contract or take pick 26 and another (probably late) first round pick in 2024. Oh, and they’d also have to find a QB. They can’t let something like that happen.

Again, both. They’ve spent more draft capital and more in FA than the Bills. Your list is a bit misleading. For example, you describe Thuney’s contract and Morse’s the same way, but they aren’t close to the same. And let’s not get stuck on KC. How about the Bengals versus the Bills where investment on the offense is concerned? Sure, they’ve done better with their picks, but they’ve also invested a lot more too. It’s both.

Both. Plus probably some issues with player development.

The cap consequences of trading Diggs makes it virtually impossible. Spotrac link If traded, his cap charges would go from a hit of $20.3M to a dead cap hit of $37.6M. So by trading him we’d lose $17.3M in cap space AND we’d have to replace him.

I’m not going to argue that Beane has drafted as well as he could have or that I don’t want to see better from him. I agree with you on that. But he has done a pretty average job compared to the league. Still, if you want to win a championship average isn’t good enough. As for KC, did you miss last off-season where they recognized their deficiencies on the OL and totally revamped it? Then they won the SB. The draft isn’t the only way to address needs. They also have the best QB in the league and that covers up a lot of deficiencies. We’ve got a QB that’s close and it does as well. I know both got injured last season, but I think about what the season that could’ve been if Allen had better protection and didn’t have to deal with the UCL injury.

That makes zero sense (but, hey, why start now?). No suit was filed against the Bills, nor would any attorney worth their salt think that was even a possibility. That is ridiculous.

It’s in line with the rest of the league. Spotrac FA list by team. You can change that to any team and hit “update”. Between 20-30 FAs is typical. Most teams like to churn the bottom of their rosters.