BarleyNY

Intentionally misrepresenting opponents’ positions is called the Straw Man Fallacy. That and the Appeal to Authority Fallacy are super popular here. In this particular instance it is difficult to justify the size of extension Oliver got. It’s an obvious overpay even if it’s no worse than the Star contract. At least Oliver is a good player. There just aren’t a lot of sexy arguments for either side though. But if someone wants to pretend that some Bills fans hate Oliver, then that’s spicy. And it’s easy for someone to pretend to take the high ground.

Not a fan of Chefs! food. Crappy pasta and worse sauce. Inedibly sweet. However I believe that the owners do a lot of community work so props to them for that.

I am sure they’re using multiple void years. They could even structure the contract so he’s cut with a 6/1 designation on day one of the next league year.

Agreed. Not sure that it’s enough tho.

That is very misleading. Even with Oliver’s snap count increasing the last 8 games he still only played 50.18% of defensive snaps in 2022. His snap rates in 2019-2021 were 53.67%, 53.97% & 57.79%, respectively. His production, including his PRWR has to be viewed with this in mind. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/2022-snap-counts.htm

Seems to be a very good addition, depending on the contract ofc.

Yup. This is why I’m surprised that people are expecting a significant contribution from Harty - and why I was surprised to see how much the Bills paid him. He’s smaller than McKenzie.

I don’t think so unless they get a great deal from him. I think he’ll get paid decently by some team next offseason and that it’ll be more than the Bills want to (or reasonably can) pay him. The Bills were already top 3 in cash spending this season prior to the Oliver extension. They’ll likely move up to #2 with that included. Incidentally they only trail the Browns and Ravens now. That’s three of the teams that keep getting connected to Hopkins already spending the most cash now.

Bad teams pay players like that. Oliver has not nearly played to the level of this contract extension. Paying him with the hopes that he takes a big enough step forward to be worth makes me SMH.

The extension is 4 years, $68 million as his 5th year option in 2023 was already fully guaranteed. People are going to want to put this in the best possible light, but it is what it is. Judging by guarantees, yes, it’s likely that the earliest out is after 2025. Also the contract comparisons are for all DTs, not just 3Ts.

I understand that DTs, especially ones that can provide a decent pass rush, are scarce. Oliver is a good DT, but even with that said I don’t get $17M AAV on the extension. There’s no way to look at that and not see a substantial overpay.

Scarcity at play

There is a link provided in the first tweeted reply that shows the ranking info. It is not arbitrary, but PFF grades/rankings are used. The numbers used are strictly based on last season’s performances.

Assuming the knee is okay, I agree. The Bills definitely need to make some cap room for when they go to a 53 man roster plus practice squad. Even with restructuring Tre they might need to find a few more dollars for IR replacements.

That is really the issue. I do not like the idea of restructuring Dawkins. He might require an extension to do so as well and I would not want to add guarantees to his deal at this point. Tre White is a better option, but I understand why people would hesitate. But my view is that his salary this season is now guaranteed so we might as well make some room with it. The other possibility is cutting Morse. I’m not advocating for that, but I can see it happening - especially with the money and high draft pick spent on the IOL.

I chalk this up to it being a good sign. It’s not nearly enough to be certain of his future, but it’s a positive. I’d love to see how he did against zone too.

I checked but can’t find an associated article.

Shakir looking good in limited reps. It’ll be interesting to see how he does with more opportunities this season.

He obviously has played with Watson before too. Still, IDK that Cleveland makes the move. Seems pricey for them at this point. They are the only team with higher active spending this season than the Bills. Much like the Bills it may come down to how much pressure the brass is under.

Circumstances have changed. The fact that the Bills were one of two teams seriously pursuing trading for Hopkins is indicative of that. But the degree to which this regime will be more aggressive is certainly debatable.

The Bills knew who Diggs was when they traded for him and then later signed him to his current contract. He’s an elite, emotional player who gets angry when he thinks his teammates and/or coaches let him and the team down. And he’s watched both happen while he has played at his typical elite level. The coaches effed up with 13 seconds against KC and most of the team - Allen included - didn’t bother to show up in the playoffs this past year. Diggs, Milano and only a few others should have had their heads up after the Bengals game. And the team sucked against the Phins too. Squeaking out a 3 point win against Skyler Thompson was embarrassing. So, yeah, there’s definitely some effort by the team to keep the Diggs situation from blowing up. But they are tied together for two more seasons - at least - so what choice do they have?

Agreed on the money. That’ll be interesting. I wonder what Hopkins was asking for from teams wanting to trade for him. His contract would’ve been tough to fit into any decent team’s cap. Was he asking for a bump up? Would he have played for the same money with a restructure? Was he looking for additional years or guarantees? I expect him to go to the highest bidder among playoff caliber teams. With the highest bidder being the best combo of guaranteed money and expected income. I don’t know where this will land, but I think it’ll take a payout of at least $30M over two years - with most/all of that guaranteed - just to get his agent talking. Structure would make it look like a bigger deal to spread out the cap hits though. Signing Hopkins isn’t without risks. His age and PED suspension are both concerning. But it’s probably a risk worth taking for the Bills and this regime. Beane and McDermott likely have two seasons to show progress and earn extensions so Hopkins would fit in to that very nicely. Time for them to push in all their chips.

I think that you have to consider changing circumstances when looking at how people act. Beane has changed his approach as the team became more competitive. I think that there is a lot of pressure on Beane and McDermott to get over the top and that they reasonably have two seasons to do so. That’s based on how the last few seasons ended as well as their tenure and contract situations. I think a move like bringing in Hopkins for two seasons makes a lot of sense in that context. I think we offer him a sizable contract that is effectively two seasons, but is longer and spreads out the cap hits for two seasons beyond that. Edit: I should stress that this is what I expect to happen, not necessarily what I’d do. Hopkins scares me due to his age and PED violation. I know Beane has more info than us fans. I think taking the chance has a lot of merit, but there are certainly risks.

Hopkins has no guaranteed money left on his contract. The dead money on Hopkins’ deal that AZ has to account for is due to money (signing bonuses) already paid to him but not accounted for on their cap. It has no bearing on any future contracts.

I don’t understand how this is supposed to be fun. Maybe when there are some other features added it’ll be interesting.